Khamenei's Speech: Learning From the Shah?

The main goal of Khamenei's speech this morning was consolidation. The recent demonstrations have been unprecedented. The Supreme Leader is aware of their impact, and the main goal of today's speech was first and foremost to create some kind of cohesion in the system. This was done by emphasizing the large number of people who took part in the elections. He also tried to reiterate that despite their differences, his relations with Rafsanjani are important, and that any accusation against his children should be settled in court, rather than on the street or television screens. He also said he is close to Ahmadinejad and that his point of view regarding domestic and foreign policy is closer.

Furthermore, by warning the demonstrators to "to end street protests, otherwise they "will be responsible for its consequences, and consequences of any chaos", Khamenei is setting the ground for the upcoming crackdown. As far as the Supreme Leader of Iran is concerned, the demonstrators have shown their opposition, and now, it's enough. These elections are over, and the result is set. Opposition should be shown at the ballot box, not on the streets. Should they continue they bear the responsibility.

What is even more interesting is his statement that he is willing to put his life on the line to defend the revolution. This statement has religious and political meaning.

Religiously, it reminds Iranians of the story of Imam Hussein, whose martyrdom is mourned in Ashura. In the recounting of the story of Ashura, the story teller talks about how Hossein, knowing full well that he could die, still took part in the epic battle against Yazid. This gives Imam Hossein the image of a hero, who is willing to risk all to defend his beliefs. Ayatollah Khamenei, though his statement is trying to provoke the same sentiments and emotions.

In terms of political outlook, what this message means is that this is one battle which Ayatollah Khamenei can not afford to lose, and he is willing to use whatever means to come out as the victor.

The question to ask is: will his speech achieve its goals?

The warning against the demonstrators could decrease the number of people who are willing to attend demonstrations, in the short term. It is also likely to lead to more use of physical violence against demonstrators.

However, looking over the horizon Khamenei's refusal to order a recount, plus his statement that he is closer to Ahmadinejad is likely to create even more tension and upheaval. As far as the demonstrators are concerned, no concession was made to them.

What must be noted that is that this will not only anger the reformists. Moderate conservatives will also feel isolated and disappointed. Yesterday, Mohsen Rezai, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, in an interview with channel 2 of Iranian TV viewed his displeasure at the way the elections were carried out. Although he did not attack Khamenei, he stated that people attach utmost value to their vote, and this must be respected. Rezai warned that this is an important asset, which must not be abused.

The opposition is not after Khamenei's life. The majority of them are not after regime change. What they want is a fairer electoral system, which respects their vote.

The very fact that Ayatollah Khamenei sees this as a prelude to the overthrow of his administration, is a clear sign that he feels his position is in danger.

If we look at this from a logical point of view, the more Khamenei takes on the opposition, the more it could backfire. He could defuse the situation by making some kind of compromise to the opposition.

However, what probably motivates Khamenei is the lessons learned from the Shah. When he compromised, by allowing Bakhtiyar to become Prime Minister, the people of Iran saw that as a sign of weakness. This emboldened them even more to take on his allies and security forces. Khamenei may be worried that giving in to the opposition may have the same result.

Comments

[gevan]

Whether one is called Tsar or Kaiser -- Furher, Duce, Caudillo or Rahbar, the truth remains that absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[pianofan]

Khamenei is the new Shah. The whole world is watching, The whole world is watching, The whole world is watching.

[comeback]

WTF...is there a gun law in Iran..Why are these people not overthrowing the Government­...Freedom is not easy..but it can be accomplished..Why do you think other countries dont make trouble on US soil(9/11 dont count)I know some Liberal would post that....We have a ARMY of Cilvillian­s(Locked,L­oaded and ready to fight...Thats frickin Freedom...come on Iran WE ARE WITH YOU

[Torero126]

Dude, nice, but seriously, you sound retarded. Come on, peel off the bumper sticker that says ,' they can have my gun when they pry it from my cold dead hands". We get it cowboy. But to get back to the point, most Iranians, including Mousavi supporters do not want to overthrow the government. They simply want a fair election with accurate results. They would have accepted a 51% majority win by Ahmadenijad if that was the actual results. ANd they do want to have a supreme leader and assembly of experts, what they do not want is dictatorship and election fraud.

By the way, WTF is so over.

[comeback]

Your Wrong...The election was fixed this time and any other time...No matter who is in charge(the Mullahs rule)and need to be overthrown(if freedom is desired)..The Shaw(or whatever) will never give up power...Only a Dictator would want a unarmed Society

[Toker]

Somebody needs to tell this dictator (Yeah I said dictator, that's what he is) that the revolution that he's willing to die for is over. It has came and went. He's a real big man threatening people that he could not harm himself but only with the thugs he has unleashed on the people of Iran. He says he's willing to die for the revolution. The only people willing to die for a revolution are the people out there in the streets. He is a coward. The people in the streets are being shot and killed. The people need to put the rocks down and pick up guns. Eye for an eye.

[Ajoyshop]

Are you willing to fly over their and join the twenty something year-old students in arming themselves against a well trained modern army? That's like giving ten big shoed clowns guns and telling them to run at an army of 1,000 tanks. IF you're so tough if all of you are so tough maybe you should join the "revolution" you all so don't understand. Brothers and sisters die in revolutions. Women and children get caught in the middle. This is not some NRA meeting where you can spout off your gun talk. These are real people with real llves and you call on them to kill each other? What would MLK say? Ghandi? Any number of leaders who achieved their goals thru peace. Stop commenting on what you don't understand.

[Edwin Badulis]

A compromise...there is....between khame & rafsan. What it is? the corruption charge will be dropped. Just keep the assembly of experts at bay.

[iluvsam]

A religious leader who orders the murder of his own people in order to hold on to power can in NO WAY claim he is a "religious" leader at all. What he is is a politician who is attempting to maintain the political system that grants him the authority to murder his own people. Why else would these "clerics" fear the modern world so much? They are fearful of the modern world, because they know the people will eventually find out that religion is a trick; one the people have fallen for over and over and over again.

[dumboldfarmer]

For a leader and in particular, a supposed religious leader, to give a go-ahead for military and para-military personnel to persecute and attack demonstrators, and then proclaim that any blood spilled would be on the hands of the opposition, is total and absolute fraud.

Any blood spilled will have come from the orders of this leader, or from the combined council, and would be their responsibility. It is a direct indicator of possible pseudo-religious actions simply enacted to remain in power and not in any way related to actual religious belief. If they think that they can absolve themselves of wrongdoing by blaming others, they are wrong.

It is a sad thing to see people simply wanting justice being deprived of the ability to do so at the whim of dictatorial leaders.

[PaPaPeng]

Beijing cautions US over Iran
By M K Bhadrakumar
Jun 20, 2009 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF20Ak03.html

[Thus, Thursday's China Daily editorial is broadly in the nature of an appeal to the Obama administration not to spoil its new Middle East policy, which is shaping well, through impetuous actions. Significantly, the editorial upheld the authenticity of Ahmadinejad's election victory: "Win and loss are two sides of an election coin. Some candidates are less inclined to accept defeat."

The daily pointed out that a pre-election public opinion poll conducted by the Washington Post newspaper showed Ahmadinejad having a 2-1 lead over his nearest rival and some opinion polls in Iran also indicated more or less the same, whereas, actually, "he won the election on a lower margin. Thus, the opposition's allegations against Ahmadinejad come as a trifle surprising".]

Ahmadinejad or Mousavi, the US and everyone else who's not Iranian should stay out of this fight. Iranian policy towards the US will not change. Iran's nuclear ambitions remain whoever is in charge.
Most of Iran's development problems arise from a hostile US policy and the us embargo. That's not going to change any time soon either.

[jmarch]

Thinking about supreme leader Khamenei's sermon, and the look in his eyes as he spoke, I was reminded of British historian Lord Acton’s words: “All power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Or to paraphrase, “All power tends to corrupt, and supreme power corrupts supremely.”

Acton also said “There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it.” Would be nice if the Koran had words to that effect...and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does, in some fashion, at least indirectly, though I doubt that the Supreme leader and his gang would be interested in them.

[ncal]

The supreme leader did not deny anywhere in that speech that the election was rigged. At the crux, he always asked a question, not issued a denial .... as in, "how could we have ?"
He never lied and he never said what you heard.
As to "how could we have?", that's easy. Run out of ballot after noon at designated sites.

[Torero126]

Great article. But it lacks much of the necessary content required to understand the complex political situation that is unfolding in Iran. In fact, check out www.bloggingthecasbah.com for a great post on the power plays that are occurring behind the curtain in Iran.

Recently, inside reports claim many moderate clerics, some of whom are believed to be members of the powerful Assembly of Experts, have questioned the wisdom of Khamenei in hastily endorsing Ahmadinejad's "victory". The Assembly, which selects the country's supreme leader, is chaired by Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani who is considered by many as one of the pillars of the Islamic Revolution.

It is a well-known fact that there is a lot of bad blood between Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani whom the president accuses of corruption and aristocratic behaviour. Ahmadinejad angered Rafsanjani when in his presidential television debate with Mousavi, he alleged that all the three opposition candidates had been put forward by Rafsanjani to defeat him.

There is much for Khameini to consider other than just the protesters in the streets. He must also worry about the moderate clerics and the Assembly of Experts that has the power to replace him with a new supreme leader.

[darthmaul]

Isn't the "Assembly of Experts" a group that is in large part appointed by the supreme leader? If so, isn't this analogous to a company where a CEO hand picks the board of directors? What's not to say that these people owe their position, and thus their allegiance to the supreme leader.

[Torero126]

No. The Assembly of Experts(also Assembly of Experts of the Leadership) of Iran (Persian: مجلس خبرگان رهبری, Majles-e-Khobregan or Majles-e-K­hebregan), is a deliberative body of 86 Mujtahids (Islamic scholars) that is charged with electing and removing the Supreme Leader of Iran and supervising his activities. Members of the assembly are elected from a government-screened list of candidates by direct public vote to eight-year terms. Current laws require the assembly to meet for at least two days, twice annually. The current chairman of the Assembly is Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was elected in September 2007.

[Beefcake]

Here's an awesome summary about the recent events in Iran from a Harvard educated counterterrorism analyst:

http://www.tremblethedevil.com/my_weblog/2009/06/lessons-from-iran.html

[ruth606]

Helpful. Thank you.

[fifty8]

The Allies deposed Iran’s ruler, Reza Shah, and installed his weak, pliant son, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, on the throne as the latest puppet ruler in the British Empire.

But in 1951, a highly popular Iranian democratic leader, Mohammed Mossadegh, became prime minister and promptly nationalized Iran’s British-owned oil industry, ordering its profits be used to lift Iran from poverty rather than enriching Britain. The Shah and his entourage of western advisors fled.

Two years later, US and British intelligence mounted a coup that overthrew Mossadegh, ending Iran’s first democratic government. The Shah was restored to the Peacock Throne. Iran’s oil wealth returned to British and, now, US control. Washington and London proclaimed they had won an important victory against `Communism.’

http://www.ericmargolis.com/political_commentaries/iran-and-the-west-a-history-of-violence.aspx

[gevan]

Old news. It was only twenty-six from the restoration of the shah to the islamic republic. It is now thirty years since that revolution. If the people tired of the shah, perhaps they are more tired of present regime?

[SPQR1775]

I had a premonition that within a year or sooner, Ahmedinejad will become the next Supreme Leader of Iran and his powers over the security forces will be BLOCKED! Iran is coming into its own and the world awareness across earth is blossoming. We Americans had our revolution and OBAMA is president, and we will continue to make and BE THE CHANGE around the earth. Allot of us have or are awakening to the universal rays of light, love and happiness. It is "we, the people, who will form a more perfect union. It is time to open up the channels on earth and let the cosmic mind in. YES WE CAN, and WE WILL!

[Ajoyshop]

Barack will serve 4 or more years and I guarantee you at somepoint we'll be right back where we started. What we had was not a revolution. It was an election that was allowd to be free and fair. In Iran, the election was possibly rigged and that my friend is why they might be having a revolution. The next Supreme leader will not be Ahmedinejad. He is not a cleric and therefore does not meet the qualifications. The next leader is most likely going to be Khameini's son, Mojtaba, if he has way or it might be former President Ayatollah Rafsanjani. But it could be someone else too.

[3dapple]

Bottom-line is that more and more thugs are taking over the world under the guise of Supreme Leaders, Presidents, Prime Ministers, Generals... And as long as they can manage to keep the masses scared with their versions of boogeyman they will continue their thuggery with impunity. There is NOTHING supreme about a man who threatens violence on his own people especially if he claims to follow the tenets of the "most peaceful religion" - so I am told - on the planet. Such a man is a coward and his beliefs corrupt. It will be prudent for all to carefully watch and remember that if this is what these “leaders” are willing to do to their own, then imagine what will they do to others. Future foreign policies towards such leaders should incorporate these lessons learned. Iranians will have to decide between mullahs and life.

[SalB]

More and more? This is pretty much the way it has been. When the peasants resist, the rich and powerful speak, invoking the local superstition, whether it applies or not, and violence ensues. We're in a fairly typical situation, but we still do not know how to handle these effectively. Leadership needs to be transparent and without superstition.