Obama, the Internet and the Decline of Big Money and Big Media

If it were not for the internet, and all the campaign- and voter-generated activism that it has enabled, Hillary Clinton would already be the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, and Barack Obama or another reform-minded candidate would be trailing badly. (On the Republican side, it's harder to make such a clear-cut statement, mainly because the field has been so open on that side. But again, I think the internet and all the campaign- and voter-generated activism it has enabled has helped keep the Republican field from solidifying, and certainly it has helped two of the four remaining candidates, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, extend their reach. For the purposes of this argument, though, I am going to focus on the Ds, a side that I know better anyway, and maybe one of our Republican contributors will wrestle with this on their side.)

From the 1980s forward, the presidential nominating process -- what political scientists call "the winnowing process" -- has been dominated by two things: the money chase and the big media's power to frame the primary narrative around the race. On the Democratic side, we've seen the same pattern play out every time there has been an open field (i.e., no sitting president running for re-election). One candidate is the favorite of the party's establishment and its major sources of funding, and one tries to create a reform coalition to dislodge the establishment favorite. That, in broad strokes, is the story of Mondale vs Hart in 1984, Dukakis vs Jackson in 1988, Clinton vs Brown in 1992, and Gore vs Bradley in 2000.

In 2004, something started to shift, and we saw a semi-outsider candidate powered mainly by small donations, Howard Dean, nearly steal the prize, but then the voters -- and the establishment and the money -- quickly solidified around John Kerry. The frontloading of the primaries--which has been engineered by a succession of party insiders who have wanted to insure a quick consolidation around a frontrunner (ideally from the establishment) has always given the edge to that better-financed establishment candidate. And certainly once Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire, that was the end of any reform challenge to the frontrunner.

To be clear, I don't think the Democratic pattern can be distilled simply down to Big Money + Party Establishment vs Smaller Money + Outsider Reformer. As Ron Brownstein pointed out in a great column last year, there's a demographic element to this pattern too. In each case cited above, the victorious "insider" candidate has also managed to appeal to the more working-class Democratic base while the "reformer" has tapped more well-educated liberal types. Beer-drinkers vs wine-drinkers. Labor vs eggheads. Ethnic Catholics vs Jews and blacks. Brownstein warned that Obama, with his two best-selling introspective books and Harvard pedigree, might simply be repeating the same Hart-Jackson-Brown-Bradley role, while Clinton, with her base among working women, union members and urban minorities, was more likely to maintain the upper hand. And that may still be the story of 2008.

Now, Clinton vs Obama does have echoes of Gore vs Bradley or Mondale vs Hart. In each case, you have a former VP (or former First Lady, which Hillary is playing as if she was VP) against a reformist Senator. In each case, the reformist campaigned for change and new ideas over experience. But with Obama, two things are different.

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Comments

[user168]

At the end, it is TRUTH the Nation wants!

Yes, at the end only TRUTH stands - for peace, for harmony, for hope, FOR ALL...

“Without truth I know not how man can live.”

Now let's see how much TRUTH America wants...

Clinton stands for SELF, self-pity, self-absorption, narcissism, “me”-winning...

McCain stands for LOYALTY, his belief, his people, his ideals, “us”-winning...

Obama stands for TRUTH, intellectual truth, compassion truth, UNIVERSAL TRUTH, truth for all...

So be it that the youth sees HOPE in TRUTH...

"Live the change you want to see in the world."
"Always aim at complete harmony of thought and word and deed."
"A nation's culture resides in the hearts and in the soul of its people."

GO! OBAMA, TRUTH IS THE NATION, THE WORLD, THE HOPE!

[vsign]

It is obvious McCain wants Obama as the democratic candidate!!

Why does the media keep telling us the republicans and McCain want Hillary? He wants Obama - he knows he can beat Obama. I will not give Obama the red button and I'm a democrat! Lots of people will vote for McCain over Obama because he would make us feel safer than Obama ever could.

[vsign]

If Obama won't debate Hillary - the media needs to make him debate McCain NOW so we can make an intelligent decisiion as voters on our nominee.

The republicans are playing it just right. Make sure Obama is the nominee and then tell us voters how stupid we are for selecting the "affirmative action" candidate. After all, us democratic voters never made him to answer any hard questions. Not any questions like McCain has for him.

I think Edwards should SUE the media for not giving us voters a level playing field to judge our candidates. We do not want affirmative action anymore. Obama thinks he's so likeable, we'll just "adopt" him for president.

Obama is preaching to our youth that his DNA as president would "set them free". What does mixed ethnicity have to do with being a good president?

[vsign]

The days of affirmative action are over. I resent the media not giving a level playing field to the voters so we can decide for ourselves who we want to hire for the job of president. Obama has insisted on affirmative action - playing the sympathy card in S Carolina. But then the media kept it up for so long!! For goodness sake, give us a level playing field between Obama and Hillary!

We need to judge the characters of each of them - judge "the content of their characters". We can't do that unless there is a level playing field.

[wrabbitt]

Big money is alive and well in Hillary's purse lobbyist money spends just as well as honest money!

[vsign]

This could be the most exciting election in a long time. But I'm really worried, not excited, about the possible outcome. I used to think that I could not trust anyone over 30, because they must have sold out. Now I don't trust anyone under 30 to vote, because they must have sold out. Sold out? - sold out their ability to think and giving in to the media messages they carry around in their pockets like little red books.

This election is like no other - it is exposing the great generational divide. I dare say it might be greater than the racial or sexual divides.

Obama's message, for me, is not to hate the actions of our current leaders, Bush and the republicans, and win with the democratic party - but to hate the Clintons. Young people unite and do away with the old people!

[JFWilliam]

While Obama seems like the best ticket the US of A has to offer, please do not buy into the myth. Reality has a crummy way to rears it’s ugly head…

Obama's top adviser is Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski boasted about the fact that it was he who created the whole Afghan jihadi movement, the movement that produced Osama bin Laden.

Another Obama adviser, General Merrill McPeak, an Air Force man, who not long after the Dili massacre in East Timor in '91 that you and I survived, he was-I happened to see on Indonesian TV shortly after that-there was General McPeak overseeing the delivery to Indonesia of US fighter planes.

Another key Obama adviser, Dennis Ross. Ross advised Clinton and both Bushes. He oversaw US policy toward Israel/Palestine. He pushed the principle that the legal rights of the Palestinians, the rights recognized under international law, must be subordinated to the needs of the Israeli government-in other words, their desires, their desires to expand to do whatever they want in the Occupied Territories.

Another Obama adviser, Sarah Sewall, who heads a human rights center at Harvard and is a former Defense official, she wrote the introduction to General Petraeus's Marine Corps/Army counterinsurgency handbook, the handbook that is now being used worldwide by US troops in various killing operations. That's the Obama team.

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/1/3/vote_for_change_atrocity_linked_us

As for the others...
http://www­.2solitude­s.com/head­lines-actu­alites/87/­Hillary-Cl­inton039s-­Presidenti­al-Campaig­n-Ties-to-­the-CFR-an­d-The-Mili­tary-Elite­.html

...Kissenger, Haig & all da Fuckin Nixon vermine is back...

KEEP ON PUSHING HIM TO THE LEFT & HOPE THE YOUTH OF THIS COUNTRY ARE NOT ALL TOTALLY BRAINDEAD AND VOTE IN MASS FOR OBAMA

…and that the Diebold crowd is kept at bay… but may I dare doubt it ?

Just a hint : Before you export democracy, try having it at home !

http://whitenoise.webnode.com

[OhgReaTone]

PBS did a segment on the internet use by the Ron Paul campaign. I am not a Ron Paul support - but I am a supporter of PBS. The use of the internet we the only option for Paul.
Ohg
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/01/31/the-ron-paul-revolution-reports-by-pbs/

[Neaguy]

This is ludicrous.

Obama is the candidate of big money. Most of his campaign cash is from 2300 dollar checks.

One lobbyist told Ken Silverstein they wouldn't be giving him all that money if they didn't see him as a player.

Obama was vetted by all the big money bundlers last year. They found him safe to corporate interests.

The elites love him because he's charismatic: he's a great saleman for corporate America.

No fundamental change will occur if he wins the presidency. It ain't happenin'

[larry278]

Those who aren't even barely computer literate could start & kindle a backlash which will take an election from a candidate who is favored by computer users. No, I have no idea when, if ever, it will happen.

[research]

I am seeing a disturbing pattern amongst Obama fans, the inability to accept facts over hype.

Lieberman was Obama's official mentor in the senate, and he helped Lieberman, the author of the Iraq war authorization get elected as an independent over anti war democratic nominee, Lemont

Obama lieberman mentor;
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060508/cockburn

good debate of Obama Lemont Lieberman senate race.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/03/new_hampshire_dem_senate_candidate_who_backed_lieberman_indy_bid_falsely_claims_obama_did_too.php
here is a sad rebuttle:

http://citizensforbarackobama.blogspot.com/2007/01/debunking-myth-lieberman-not-mentor.html

Obamas health plan has mandates:

“(4) mandate all children have
health care coverage;”

http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/HealthPlanFull.pdf

Obama will not leave Iraq if there is a threat of Al Qiada. Well there always will be a threat. So Obama will never leave Iraq.

The disastrous Kyl-Lieberman votes with obama's excuse for not voting:

Obama COSPONSORED a bill to label the IRG terrorists!
Obama wants us to believe he was against provoking Iran, but just months earlier he offered to do the same.

The "Iran Counter-Pr­oliferatio­n Act of 2007," which Obama cosponsored on April 24, 2007.

Obama has no lobbyist money. Perhaps true, but misleading: Obama get contributions directly from the folks lobbyist represent:
Obama's corporatist contributers
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00009638&cycle=2008

Let's not forget that the MSM and the war profiteering companies that own them, shut the populist candidates out of the debates.

The msm and the war profiteers choose the two acceptable DLC.ORG corporatist candidates right in front of us, yet see how easy it is to forget.

I am going to vote for the dem candidates, because the the rethugs are no choice, but I can only hope the dem that wins will be liberal enough to undo the damage done by the rethugs.

Hope is all I have left, that's not a good thing.

[paixa3]

Big money declining? WHAT are you smoking?

[nerakami]

ahem.... Obama has stated on many occasions that his campaign has been fully funded by the American people. He said it in the last debate and in several other speeches.

[donaldw6]

This is an extremely important part of this year's story. The advancements of the internet have helped to fuel grass roots movements and populist messages in new and important ways in this election.

For those who can be patient -- and I'm not really the patient type, but I'm trying -- over the long run this can only mean great things for empowering the middle and lower classes in their struggle against moneyed interests. As long as the internet maintains its neutrality of access, the spread of information unfiltered by mass media will only continue.

For now, it has fueled a lot of campaigns, and Obama's is legitimately a grass-roots movement, regardless of whether we feel he always takes the grass-roots positions. Senator Obama has seen more clearly than the others how powerful we can be, and projects an ability to listen far superior to any other candidate.

The alternative media outlets have allowed us to find our voice. For as long as it can be heard, that voice will speak out for real justice and understanding in the world, more forcefully and more eloquently than at any time in the history of humanity. We can make some dramatic progress in 2008, and if it's not yet everything everyone would want, it's a tremendous step in the right direction.

Whoever wins, we've won. We need to jealously defend our territory, this medium through which I now speak to you, and never lose hope. Step by step, the disenfranchised people of the world are advancing to meet the longtime established elite. It's still not quite a fair fight, but for once, we seem to be hanging in there.

[lovethesinner]

Loved this post, Michah, and I agree with you, the internet is a big part of the equasion. I'm sure a lot of people are starting their doctoral thesis, as we speak.

I know, for myself, the "donate" button, combined with the "fundrace" link, here at Huffpo, has made it so I can feed the Obamabank more easily.

I was getting scared that I might actually exceed the legal limit a while back, and I typed my own name into "fundrace" and got my current total. I ended up donating five times as much, because I saw I was well below my limit. (It also had the effect of making me feel slightly cheap if I didn't go for it, too.)

I've also started to figure out that, since it may come down to the convention at the end of August, maybe I could put together a group of people to go to Denver and show support if that would help. (If you've never been to Colorado, believe me, there's a lot worse places you could spend your summer.)

Just to promote your thesis, Michah, here's some links people might find useful:

"fundrace":

http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/

the "change" button (I also call it "the button of love" ):

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

GObama in '08