Theatre provides the most apt metaphors for understanding what is happening between Washington and Jerusalem. For it is more about a script gone awry than a conflict over objectives and interests. To the small extent that interests diverge, it is domestic concerns that are paramount -- not the geopolitics of the Palestine issue or the region. On the latter, there is still a fundamental accord that is not jeopardized by this spat. Some fear, others hope, that the dramatic posturing indeed will force a rupture in this long united couple. Don't bet on it. While the rare display of friction rivets attention, little of consequence has changed.
The play is a remake of a hardy perennial that always wins favor in Israel and the United States -- with decidedly mixed reviews elsewhere. This production went on stage early last fall when Bibi Netanyahu called Barack Obama's bluff in spurning the president's much ballyhooed call for a freeze on settlements. The plot line was almost immediately set in motion by Hillary Clinton who, speaking in Tel Aviv on the day that the Israeli prime minister said 'NO' to the Americans, boldly declared that Israel had made an "unprecedented concession" by offering the cosmetic gesture of temporarily suspending a few projects on the West Bank while excluding East Jerusalem. She called on the Palestinians to reciprocate by meeting major Israeli demands. This opening act set the scene for the slow unfolding of a well rehearsed pseudo drama.
Its predictable motifs were all recognizable. Israeli leaders are truculent but coyly suggest that they just might sit down with the nominal Palestinian President Abbas -- if certain preconditions are met, now including no mention of an independent Palestinian state. Abbas, for his part, squirms under American pressure as his desperately tries to retain a bit of his depleted credibility among his own people. All three parties do agree on one thing: Hamas must be treated as a pariah and the Gazans punished for supporting them. The poor Abbas allowed himself to be squeezed into opposing a vote by the UN Human Rights Council on the Goldstone Report before popular protests made him reverse course. To avoid acknowledging the stalemate, the irrepressibly optimistic Americans contrive ingenious strategems to give the impression that the 'peace process' is not dead. A lot of pointless motion is engendered to maintain this fiction. That serves the interest of the Israelis who want nothing to happen; the White House that seeks to avoid the embarrassment of admitting that Obama's rhetoric was just hot air; and the PLO leadership that fears issuance of a death certificate for the 'peace process' is tantamount to a political death certificate for them.
To keep up the façade, administration luminaries schedule periodic visits -- Secretary Clinton, Vice President Biden and the sorely tried George Mitchell who is fated to keep riding the circuit because he is an earnest man who also happens to be half Lebanese by ancestry. Supporting roles are played by Washington's allies in the Arab world who just want either the problem to disappear or the Palestinians to disappear. As for the other members of the diplomatic Quartet -- the United Nations, the European Union, and Russia, they are little more than spear carriers who adorn the stage. Cynics refer to the diplomatic grouping as the Isosceles Quartet, a reference to the absence of the first violin and leader who prefers solo performances.
The novel device for keeping the plot going was 'proximity talks.' It referred to some vague arrangement for indirect communication between the Israelis and the Palestinian Authority. They would be close to each other but there would be no touching. Courtship through a Washington switchboard operator. It remained obscure whether -- in the improbable event of a romance blossoming -- the consummation too would be through American intermediation.
In order to keep this fictive play going, all the actors had to follow the script scrupulously lest the audience see it as a farce rather than the advertised drama. Netanyahu was the undisciplined maverick who ignored his lines. Worse, he mugged for the pleasure of his raucous pals in the audience who had tired of the old script. So when Biden came calling once again, Bibi didn't bother to play-act. Horror in Washington where Obama could not tolerate yet another public rebuff. He had caved in during the summer for two reasons: 1) that is what he habitually does when faced with a willful, tough personality (think Max Baucus/Joe Lieberman, the Wall Street barons, the Pentagon brass); and 2) he has no deep seated convictions about the Palestinian issue. So long as the fiction of a "peace process" could serve as a fig leaf concealing his failure, he could contain the damage to his credibility and to American interests in the Middle East. Now suddenly the masquerade is exposed for all to see.
That left the White House two choices. The first is to make a show of sternly admonishing the Israelis. That reflects genuine anger at Netanyahu's insolence and serves to foster an impression that the President of the United States is not to be trifled with. This option addresses images and perceptions -- at home and abroad -- without requiring Obama to lock horns with the Israelis on the terms of a real accord. The other option is to press hard for resolution of the Palestinian issue, to invest the necessary political capital in the U.S. and diplomatic capital in the region, and to get into a brawl with Netanyahu's hard line government. The safer bet is that he will opt for the former. Obama is not a fighter, he has little political capital to expend at home, the Israeli lobby was quick to lay down the gauntlet by demanding he cease antagonizing Jerusalem, and he already is juggling too many eggs that may well splatter in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran -- not to speak of Capitol Hill.
So keep your programs. Another production is on its way with the same veteran cast.
Great blog Mr. Brenner.
Sorry, but I for one do NOT believe that it is a coincidence that the same people who are involved in the decisionmaking are those getting rich.
And in isreal they get almost as rich as the parasites we have at home. And - another "coincidence" - they work together in many fields.
You think it was a coincidence and stupidity that made Israel attack its neighbor and massacre innocents when Bush was in power long enought o guarantee no UN sanctions? - Get real. It was well planned, staged to fool us, and executed to make as much money as possible on the bodies of innocents.
You know - like health care.
What we see is not theatrics. I is a money making machine at work.
And so we have to possibilities: Our government is stupid or the ones bribing our government make it do what it does.
I for one do NOT think they are stupid. I think they are liars and traitors.
This is what I don't understand even as a show. If Israel said that east jerusalem was excluded from the suspension of programs and the building was in east jerusalem does that not lie within the parameters of what they originally said?
Obama has literally zero political capital to spend on this
I loved this article. Can you make one explaining why real financial reform will never be passed and how that is all obama and congress putting on a show as well?
Final result will be a joint resolution in which Israeli and Palestinian negotiators both reluctantly agree that both live on planet Earth. Immediately followed by Hamas separate statement denouncing this as as Zionist propaganda.
Read my post above more carefully and try thinking.
Now, conflict resolution will have to wait for a different U.S. government; different Israeli government; and Palestinian defeat of Hamas.
But we've also spent over $ 100 billion trying to help Israel and they spit in our face, year after year. We've put our soldiers in danger for the sake of Israel and other's over there. NO more money for Israel or anyone else over there, enough is enough.
Israel does not need our money, but we do. Call or write Congress and demand no more money for this wasteland.
I also presume that you advocate that Arabs leave Europe, the americas and everywhere else except Arabia.
As for a wasteland, you should give yup your cell phone, you computer, your Widnows software, your Intel chips, and a lot of your medicines that were eveloped wholly or partially in israel. Buy the ones made in the Arab coutnries.
and do tell me how paying so much to an oil cartel isn't aid under antoher name.
while they continue to alienate the few friends they have left?
This situation is very bad for Israel because it makes it more difficult for Israel to save itself by GETTING OUT OF THE WEST BANK ENTIRELY.
"But its aim is the same: waterboarding of Obama by the Israelis, just stopping when they think Obama feels like he's drowning. They assume, he'll be ever so grateful for the chance to cough away the water, he’ll cave in."
You did that, right?
Apologies.
My comment could be classified as 'anti-Semitic' but I am in favor of a single state where by all Semites are equal in that state.
Actually no-one needs a state. National borders are obsolete in this global economy. Certain sects in their desire to keep their assumed unique identity are hanging on, like grim death, against all the odds, but nature will out.
The misinformation about Israel is astounding and so few people bother to find out what the truth really is.
The misinformation about Israel is astounding, and the truth of Israel's birth is not something many Israeli historians like to focus upon, janp, a state born out of terrorism and dispossession, zionists groups fighting the allies during WW2.
janp.. you referred to the Hamas & Fatah charters.. Could I point out that Hamas has no charter, although oft cited the initial documentation from the formation of Hamas in 1987 has never been finalised, completed, accepted or adopted.
While Fatah does indeed have a constitution that calls for the destruction of Israel.. you must remember, Fatah are the Israeli proffered partner for negotiations, I imagine due to all their good work during their control of Gaza 2000-2006,when those rockets were being fired or perhaps in recognition of Fatah refusing to sign or adhere to the Hamas initiated ceasefire in 2008.
Could i perhaps point you to the charter of Likud, Netenyahu's party -
“Peace is a primary objective of the State of Israel. The Likud will strengthen the existing peace agreements with the Arab states and strive to achieve peace agreements with all of Israel’s neighbours with the aim of reaching a comprehensive solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
But then it says about settlements:
“The Jewish communities in Judea, Samaria and Gaza are the realisation of Zionist values. Settlement of the land is a clear expression of the unassailable right of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel and constitutes an important asset in the defence of the vital interests of the State of Israel. The Likud will continue to strengthen and develop these communities and will prevent their uprooting.”
Therefore annihilating the slightest chance of a two-state solution.
from Wikipedia