As one of their year-end announcements, The Centers for Disease Control reported the U.S. birth rate at 1.86, below the replacement level of 2.1. There have already been grumblings about how a lowered fertility rate nationally will have an adverse impact on American economic growth.
While fertility can indicate social and economic health, it's simply wrong to conclude that economic growth drops in parallel with fertility. Set this CDC data against the Transamerica Research Center (TRC) data that has just come out - which illustrates how the baby boomer generation is revolutionizing retirement. Taken together, one gets a different, more nuanced view of economic growth in our 21st century. It's not just about babies - but adults.
Sustained drops in fertility will indeed create a world with more "old" than "young," but this is a potential level for growth if the oldies are still active, engaged, and productive. Here are seven things the pundits keep missing about "population aging" and economic growth:
- More are working into retirement: The TRC research reveals that a stunning 65 percent of Baby Boomer workers either plan to work past age 65 or do not plan to retire. Of these, over one-in-three will continue to work because they enjoy it. Do the math, and this numbers quickly counterbalance the fall in fertility. But to truly capture this shift, employers must change their workplace norms. Sadly, the workplace isn't keeping pace. The TRC survey found that only 48 percent of employers have practices in place to enable a shifting from full-time to part-time work, and even fewer have employees who believe such options to be available to them.
The new CDC data on the drop in fertility has given the pundits more fuel for their short-sighted fire. But enough of the knee-jerk, doomsday proselytizing. There is immense potential in the aging of the population, and it's time to reorient our thinking so we can seize it.
Earlier on Huff/Post50: