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Michael Kieschnick

Michael Kieschnick

Posted: March 31, 2010 04:30 PM

Would President Obama Trade Drill, Baby Drill for Health Care Votes?

What's Your Reaction:

This morning, President Obama announced that he is reversing a 20 year policy that prohibited oil and gas drilling off of much of the East Coast and selected other areas. Candidate Obama argued thoughtfully against this very move while candidate Palin made it a centerpiece of her deliciously misinformed campaign. Nobody other than oil companies liked the announcement.

Indeed, this is a bad idea from every perspective.

There is no doubt that Mr. Obama realizes that reversing this policy will produce little or no oil or gas for many years. It will not help offset the rising price of oil as the international economy recovers. It plays into anti-science talking heads that lack of drilling is our real global warming problem. It inevitably raises risks of drilling and shipping related oil and gas pollution.

But it doesn't even seem like there is some intricate, inside-the-beltway triple bank shot kind of future deal here. There is no evidence whatsoever that it is part of a back room deal to gain Senate votes for a tough global warming bill - indeed, it is likely to have the opposite effect. Now that Republicans have the drilling they want, why bargain?

There are only two explanations that make any sense to me. Both are searingly depressing.

The first is that the Administration is just terrible at bargaining on environmental policies. Rather than make trades, it prefers to make concessions first and then hope that good will and a sense of fair dealing leads its opponents - almost all Republicans but many fossil fuel Democrats - to reciprocate without even a discussion. There is no shortage of evidence for this, most recently being the billions of Federal nuclear loan guarantees for a nuclear plant in Georgia. The resulting electricity will be expensive, the nuclear waste has absolutely no place to go, and neither of the Georgia Republican senators will ever vote for anything remotely useful. Bad policy, bad politics.

The second is that the Administration is in fact willing to do deals - after all, they made deals worth hundreds of billions with the drug and hospital industries - but that this reflects a deal made to pass legislation already done and not something to be done in the future. There is only one piece of legislation that could possibly be - health care legislation.

Did the Administration buy votes from pro-drilling Democrats? Should we expect more bad news policies - policies that make no sense as policy or politics - to be announced in the future?

To be perfectly clear, I have no objection to making deals to pass legislation. Some deals are worth it. Others clearly not. It depends both on what we got and what we gave up.

I personally would not have traded offshore oil drilling for a few votes on health care. I am confident that those who voted for change in November 2008 share that view. I would like to know whether President Obama would or did make such a trade.

I don't know which would be worse - believing that the Obama Administration is terrible at negotiating, since there is a lot left to negotiate in the remainder of his first term, or that the President would trade truly terrible environmental policies for mixed bag health reform. I sure would love to have a third option to believe.

 
 
 
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charles77
Just the Facts Please
12:20 PM on 04/03/2010
Obama is smart enough to realize it is about “balance of paymentsâ€.

The more money we use to Import oil, the less money we have for green energy or anything else..

“A Balance of payments (BOP) sheet is an accounting record of all monetary transactions between a country and the rest of the world. These transactions include payments for the country's exports and imports of goods, services, and financial capital, as well as financial transfers. The BOP summarises international transactions for a specific period, usually a year, and is prepared in a single currency, typically the domestic currency for the country concerned. Sources of funds for a nation, such as exports or the receipts of loans and investments, are recorded as positive or surplus items. Uses of funds, such as for imports or to invest in foreign countries, are recorded as a negative or deficit item.â€

“When all components of the BOP sheet are included it must balance - that is, it must sum to zero - there can be no overall surplus or deficit. For example, if a country is importing more than it exports, its trade balance will be in deficit, but the shortfall will have to be counter balanced in other ways - such as by funds earned from its foreign investments, by running down reserves or by receiving loans from other countries.â€

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_payments
11:24 PM on 04/02/2010
Great piece. I'm sure you must be right about the health care votes.

"Change we can believe in." We just didn't know THIS is what he had in mind! What a slap in the face.
10:27 PM on 04/02/2010
There was an obama campaign worker who went into a coma in Oct. '08 ...she came out of it this week. I visited her and we chatted ...she wanted to catch up...

~ So...healthcare has passed ?

- YES... Americans are MANDATED to purchase private insurance, no publicly-funded alternative available, an anti-abortion provision worse than the Hyde Amendment is codified, and there are loopholes which will still allow insurers to dump costly subscribers... plus, it doesn't allow for negotiating pharmaceutical pricing.

~ .......how about... banking regulation ?

- Nope...but Ben Bernanke is still at the Fed !!!

~ Hopenhagen ?

- Well... prez flew in & brokered an 11th-hr. non-binding agreement. We brought to the table 20% of the minimum cuts needed... to meet even the most rosy projections.

Her shoulders slumped.

~ Climate Legislation ???!!!

- yes, well...so far the prez has TRIPLED government subsidies for nukes....not curtailed mountaintop removal....and.....just this week, matter o' fact.....lifted the ban on offshore drilling.....

Her eyes were daggers..

~ Latin America ?

....I stared at her bedpan.

- ... supporting a military coup government in Honduras.... doubling our bases in Colombia....and pouring millions into the Mexican military.

~ Israel ???!!!

I stared at the Exit sign

- Still attacking and settling unabashedly.....

~ Social Security ?

- ... prez just appointed a panel to, um...'study the ....options'...

She grew pensive, shaking her head....

~ I don't understand how McCain-Palin could've pulled it off !...they were down by double-digits !
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Carsy
10:00 PM on 04/02/2010
Unless you have any proof that there has been a trade, health care votes for off shore drilling, don't speculate or how about investigate before hand.
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MidRoaderTurnedLeft
06:36 PM on 04/02/2010
I'm very confused. Hope the talking heads can sort this out.

Thankfully I don't have cable/satellite, or I'm sure I'd get even more confused. Maybe even spit on.
08:50 PM on 04/02/2010
No...they wouldn't confuse you...the cable talking heads...they'd just say what we've been hearing for 2 days now: these policy announcements "strike a balance".

the only thing which doesn't add up is...how exactly does risking 50% of our nation's coastline & capitulating entirely to Big Oil..."banace" with introducing MPG standards which are already 20 years behind the curve ?

I guess I'm not quite connecting those dots......
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MidRoaderTurnedLeft
09:03 PM on 04/02/2010
Time for a glass of wine. That'll clear this up, I'm sure.
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rebelriser
artist, published author, activist
06:34 PM on 04/02/2010
I don't believe there will be any harm to the change in policy toward drilling, especially since it is years off and I believe our President was bagaining for more cooperation for the energy bill. putting through a strong energy bill can possibly help accomodate cooperation on renewable energy sources and by the time the off shore drilling comes due, we may not need it.
08:56 PM on 04/02/2010
Here's the problem....your view might make some sense but for the fact that....it takes environmental risk COMPLETELY out of the equation.

has anyone noticed that...people talking as if the entire notion that extracting resources from sensitive areas is entirely safe and poses no negative impacts.

But that is NOT reality. reality is: there are just some places on this planet where the risk of taking those resources far outweighs the potential benefits of having those resources. Where...should just ONE thing go wrong in the potential plethora of locations....the devastation would far outweigh any gains made by having extracted the resource.

When you add that reality into the equation....no other conclusion can be made other than the one the author of this article makes:

...either obama is the absolute worst negotiator of all time....or, he's just a sellout to big industry.
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prodemdss
at-home mom and artist
12:08 PM on 04/02/2010
Having slept on this shocking news, and after reading some articles, comments, etc., I don't believe drilling will ever happen on the Atlantic, where we are always threatened by hurricanes,(which would be disastrous for the oil rigs, animal life, and our National Seashore). Obama is all about protecting our resources, promoting alternative energy,conservation, community bonding to help with all of this, and more. Also, the so-called "big oil companies" are on board, too. They stand to make money no matter what, because their "good-guy" alternatives will be positive for them and for the planet. Competition for designing and implantation of alternatives may still be under their names, but, they know, as well as we do, maybe even more so, that change must happen. Research and science is behind it as we write and speak. The people demand alternatives, and, as the old saying goes, need is the mother of invention.
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MidRoaderTurnedLeft
08:19 PM on 04/02/2010
There may not be much activity in the Atlantic. The oil industry's real interest in the lower 48 is the Eastern Gulf of Mexico:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304739104575153922665431994.html
08:59 PM on 04/02/2010
Explain to me exactly how you can reconcile "obama is all about protecting resources" with the fact that he just opened 50% of our nation's coastline to the considerable risk of offshore drilling....in order to achieve a temporary supply of highly-polluting fossil fuel.

because....I can't quite follow you there.....
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MidRoaderTurnedLeft
10:23 PM on 04/02/2010
If the "SF" in your name means "San Francisco": You're safe!

But as you know you've got a lot of tankers coming through the Gate.
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prodemdss
at-home mom and artist
01:30 AM on 04/03/2010
uh, huh can't quite follow you, either...cause you must just looovvvee Bush and his contribution to our historical annuals......it will probably not happen, and you know it. I am just plain tired of your tea bag, conservative,anti-Obama, our President's, views....
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CAPTAINSKIPPY
11:41 AM on 04/02/2010
Lots of material for another season of West Wing, with the theme "A year of disappointments".
09:00 PM on 04/02/2010
And we can keep watching reruns as the world slowly burns up.....
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dreffein
06:40 AM on 04/02/2010
While I understand that a Mc C a i n presidency would have been far worse, each day I wake up to the sad realization that we either elected the most incompetent and naive President, who knows nothing about negotiation (thus throwing away single payer and the public option before negotiations even started - although he had privately promised to do so to gain insurance industry support); or we elected a President only interested in preserving corporate interests - as we've seen with the monopoly given to the private insurance companies or the giveaway of our environment to the oil companies. Either way, this President has squandered an historic opportunity to really make a difference.
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rebelriser
artist, published author, activist
06:40 PM on 04/02/2010
You're being too hard on President Obama in light of the EXTREMELY TOUGH, UPHILL BATTLE he has dealt with for over a year now. I'm certain we have no idea at all as to the difficulty in getting the several bills through that were passed inspite of Republicans' very open obstruction to ruin the President & the Presidency all for the ourpose of republicans success in getting back in office to do nothing for people. How can anyone forget 8 years of destroying our economy and our demacracy?
09:01 PM on 04/02/2010
Absolutely untrue. Right out of the gate obama started giving things away to industry...from day #1. he had a 70% approval rating and the largest bully pulpit on the planet...and he stared backpedaling the day after inauguration.

Bill Clinton v. 2.0.
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EricEFNY
09:37 PM on 04/02/2010
The bills he got through were passed by Democrats. The opening of areas for oil exploration had absolutely nothing to do with passing everything. As I have said the congress controls appropriations and writes the laws. They were the ones in charge of the congress in the last two years of the Bush Administration.

If Obama is not doing what you wanted, blame him. No, I am sure the Republicans forced Obama to open exploration, because we all know they control both houses of congress. Oh wait minute, the last time they controlled congress was in 2006! Four years ago!
09:12 PM on 04/02/2010
You know...I have sorta been thinking the same thing, honestly. I mean..with the notable exception of Sonja Sotomayor...let's take a look at the accomplishments so far:

1) a healthcare "reform" which mandates Americans to buy insurance from PRIVATE providers and provides ZERO competition ....brings into law an anti-choice provision FAR more odious than the Hyde amendment...gives Big Pharma everything they want....and still retains massive loopholes for insurers to drop coverage of subscribers who's illnesses will cost them too much.

2) opening 50% of the nation's coastlines to offshore drilling (something Dubya with a repooblican-controlled congress never actually DARED to implement...although they could have if they wanted to).

3) keeps Ben Bernanke as chair of the Fed

4) Has created no new regulations on the banking industry

5) Still lets Israel attack and settle at will....

6) Triples the public sibsidies for Nuclear Power Plants

7) Doubles down on installing new military bases in Latin America, while supporting a coup government in Honduras.

8) Appoints a panel to study the raiding of Social Security

If one woke up after being asleep since Oct. 2008 and read this list of achievements....one would only assume that McCain-Palin musta pulled off an enormous upset back in Nov. '08
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MadJayhawk
01:49 AM on 04/02/2010
Look at Crude Oil prices. We may be heading for a repeat of the 2008 price run up that, along with the mortgage fiasco, caused the recession. Crude oil is hitting new 17 month highs almost every day. Prices are up more than 30% since Obama took office.

If crude oil hits a $100 a barrel Obama is in deep trouble because the recovery will stall and the economy has a good chance of staying in a recession. He will not be able to blame this one on Bush. This country, like it or not, runs on oil.

This rush to the teleprompter to announce the release of areas for drilling was a calculated one. He wants to slow down the speculators. He had to know that his wacko base would go wild. If he fails at that you will see a really big push to get the Volker rule legislation passed. If that fails you might see a call to nationalize the oil companies if crude oil prices go way past $100/barrel. It looks bad for Obama and it looks bad for the American People. This might be a really big mess. Gas is almost $3.00/gal here. We could see $4.00/gal by the time the election rolls around.
08:00 AM on 04/02/2010
Don't forget that during the campaign, Obama stated that he wanted higher energy prices to reduce our consuption of energy.

The oil companies aren't controlling the price of oil. Supply, demand and OEPC control oil prices.

I do not understand the rush to Socialism and, possibly, Communism. Centrally planned economies are not innovative How cna they be? how can you have a 5-year plan for new inventions, new discoveries? How do you know how many pencils you will need next year or the year after?
12:57 AM on 04/02/2010
The President's complete reversal on campaign issues without so much as a wink, simply illustrates the tendency of The President to say whatever campaign supporters want to hear him say, and then do whatever he really really wants to do.
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10:03 PM on 04/01/2010
Out- Republicaning the Republicans:
By Ted Rall:
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/04/01-6

Drill Baby, Drill:
http://www.democracynow.org/

Obama hires new pesticide/polluter lobbyist as US Trade Rep. Agricuture:
http://www.democracynow.org/
08:31 PM on 04/01/2010
Would he trade? Possibly.
More likely he did both health care and drilling because he thought they were the right thing to do.
08:30 PM on 04/01/2010
Obama is not counting on 'good will' or a 'sense of fair dealing' when making the 'difficult concessions' he was 'forced' to make in this latest scheme. Obama is very much aware that his latest plume of smoke will NEVER produce one drop of oil or one cubic foot of natural gas. I just hope that members of the house and senate weren't fooled into making concessions on REAL legislation based on this non-gesture.
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muziker
08:21 PM on 04/01/2010
To those shouting that Washington is rife with special deal making and pandering to get support and votes: WAKE UP! Washington has operated on that basis since the 1st Congress. DUh! It's politics we're talking here. And don't think for one minute that Bush did not make any such deals. Also to those demanding Obama provide full and complete transparency in his administration: where the hell was the Bush transparency? His dirty little deals were not done in any back room...they were done in the basement. The only issue is whether asy such deals are corrupt and self-serving and loaded with monetarry bribes. It sems to be that Republican repungnance of the heath care reform bill was and is based on the amount of support offered by their insurance and pharm lobbyists (discussed behind closed doors and not broadcast of any TGV channel). The Reps even want Obama to put security secrets into the transparent tank. Maybe so they can point fingers at him for revealing state secrets.