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Michael Lucas

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The Nukes of Hazard: Should Israel Strike at Iran While It Can?

Posted: 04/ 9/2012 10:57 am

Six million Jews died in the Holocaust. Six million Jews live in Israel today, where the threat of another Holocaust grows greater by the day. But the world tells them to wait and trust.

As Iran grows closer to creating viable nuclear weapons, Israel has been criticized for suggesting that it might launch preemptive strikes on Iranian weapons facilities. We can't know whether such strikes would prevent the nuclear empowerment of one of the world's most dangerous countries. But we need to understand why the Israelis might take this step, and why we should hope they succeed if they do.

"Never again": This was the vow that Jews have been determined to uphold since the Holocaust. A centuries-old culture of bookish passivity -- of meekness, of not making waves -- was murdered by the Nazis along with the six million. In 1948, when the nation of Israel rose from the ashes of the European slaughter, it did so with a new understanding of self-defense as a matter of life and death.

The medieval theocrats who run Iran do not see the Nazi legacy the same way. In 2006, Tehran hosted a conference for Holocaust revisionists and deniers; Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently referred to the Nazi genocide as a "big lie." But Ahmadinejad seems determined to make Jewish extermination a reality in our time, openly calling for the "eradication" of Jewish Israelis. "The Zionist regime is a center of microbes, a cancer cell," he said last summer. "If it exists in one iota of Palestine it will mobilize again and hurt everyone." These sentiments were echoed in February by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who called Israel a "cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut."

It is impossible not to hear echoes of Hitler's Final Solution in such threats. After Auschwitz, the Jews cannot afford not to take them seriously. It cannot gamble with its very existence.

Yet the world expects Israel to hold its fire as Iran build nuclear warheads -- the most aggressive potential radiation treatment for the Zionist "cancer" that any anti-Semite could wish for. Huge destructive power in the hands of retrograde religious zealots: The danger of decimation is clear and present. But instead of bombing Iran, the editorialists say, Israel should wait for the international community to intervene through diplomacy and sanctions.

The problem with this is twofold. First, we do not know how far Iran is from reaching its goals, and the window for action may be closing. And second: If there is anything the Jews have learned, it is that the international community cannot be trusted to protect them. The Holocaust, after all, happened just 70 years ago; Germany, until that time, had been one of the most hospitable places for Jews in the world

Europe has not been a reliable friend since then, either. In the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel faced the most serious threat in its history as Arab armies -- led by Egypt and Syria -- massed at its borders to invade on the holiest day of the Jewish year. The United States insisted that Israel not launch a preemptive strike, promising to send weapons and supplies if Israel was invaded. But when the Arab armies attacked, America's rescue mission was nearly choked off when its European allies -- worried by the threat of an oil embargo -- refused to let American planes land to refuel in their countries, or even fly through their airspace.

Thousands of Israeli men and women were killed in the Yom Kippur War, and Israel has not forgotten Europe's betrayal. It has every right to be skeptical about Europe's commitment to its safety. And the irony is that Israel often ends up doing the Western world's dirty work in taking bold action against rogue states. In 1981, when Israel bombed a nuclear reactor near Baghdad, it was condemned around the world -- but many analysts later credited the action for crippling Saddam Hussein's nuclear aspirations. In 2007, Israel again overstepped its boundaries by destroying a nuclear reactor in Syria. Does anyone today think the world would be safer if Bashar al-Assad had the Bomb?

In the end, this is not just a question of Israeli national security or even of Israeli survival. It is part of a larger struggle between world ideologies. For more than three decades, Iran has been ruled by radical fundamentalists bent on exporting their backward version of Islam; by funding and arming of terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, it has become a leader in the worldwide movement to reject "decadent" Western values in favor of systematic misogyny, homophobia, anti-Semitism and religious bigotry. To use just one standard of measurement: Israel is a country that prohibits anti-gay discrimination, permits gay adoption and military service, and honors gay marriages; in Iran, same-sex relations are punishable by corporal punishment, imprisonment or death.

A nuclear Iran would change the balance of power in the Middle East and the world in potentially devastating ways. Whether Israel should proceed with a strike is a complicated question that Israel's leaders will have to decide for themselves. It is their decision to make -- not Iran's, not Europe's and not America's -- because it is their blood on the line. The Jews have trusted the world to defend them in the past, and they have been betrayed. They must never make that mistake again. Never again.

 
 
 
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02:01 PM on 04/27/2012
Israel respects peace too much to strike.
05:39 AM on 04/12/2012
The fact is that, Iran sucks....haunting the entire world...
Rafael Alencar
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
08:46 PM on 04/11/2012
Never again?

Unless it's the Israelis doing to Iran what was done to them.

How do you know Iran doesn't have a couple nuke from Russia?

The USA military was wrong then they wanted to bomb Cuba. If they had been allowed by Kennedy, the east coast of the USA would be a radioactive wasteland today.

What give us the right to tell other sovereign countries, THEY may not protect their sovereignty with nukes? We do. We torture, and wage war crime wars.

Iran is not insane, they won't launch first.

Iran has not even shown any evidence of actually building nuke bombs.

We in the west claim MAD worked, but not Iran?
08:37 PM on 04/11/2012
Is Hollywood capable of making a movie about Cyrus the Great without making him look like a villain?
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05:16 PM on 04/10/2012
The author compares Iran to World War 2 Germany but, what does an actual Holocaust survivor think, is Israel the real problem?

"Reuben Moscowitz, a Holocaust survivor who took part in the mission, expressed his disbelief that "Israeli soldiers would treat nine Jews this way. They just hit people."

"I as a Holocaust survivor cannot live with the fact that the State of Israel is imprisoning an entire people behind fences," Moscowitz said, adding that "it's just immoral."

"What happened to me in the Holocaust wakes me up every night and I hope we don't do the same thing to our neighbors," Moscowitz said, adding that he was comparing "what I went through during the Holocaust to what the besieged Palestinian children are going through."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/jewish-gaza-bound-activists-idf-used-excessive-force-in-naval-raid-1.316247
08:45 PM on 04/09/2012
How can anyone think 'poor palestinians'??? the arab people control the entire middle east. they have have massive home that welcomes them, the jews just want a small nation that can be their home, where they can practice their values. the arab people have a history of violence, and aggression, and their 'anti-western' stance creates nothing but problems but on a global scale, and in their own nation, with the subordination of women, murder of gays, and insanely conservative practices.
11:14 AM on 04/10/2012
I only want to steal a small part of your lawn and build a fence around it. I dont know why you would object. Your lawn is larger than mine already.
03:25 PM on 04/10/2012
I can see your name is at least 1/2 right. There was never any theft of land, rather it was given back to the Jewish people after it had been taken from them. Arabs have stolen Jewish land in and around the Middle East for hundreds of years. You should look into your facts before you spout off.
03:47 PM on 04/10/2012
I can see your name is at least 1/2 right. I'm guessing you went to public school, but that's no excuse for your ignorance. There was no theft by Israel or the Jewish people. They have history dating back to before the existence of any muslims. The land was taken from the Jewish people over hundreds of years and given back to them by the world after it was given up by the Brittish. The arabs in Middle East have systematically stolen countless pieces of land from the Jews however and expelled many Jews from those very countries.
08:29 PM on 04/09/2012
An article by someone who can see over the horizon. Unlike journalists who have to write biased writings because that is what sells! It is to the point and rational.

Surprised that the Post allowed this article to be posted! Well done!
08:18 PM on 04/09/2012
A writer who has looked over the horizon, where many journalists have not. Bringing a sense of urgency and reality often overlooked by many blinded by prejudice.
08:38 PM on 04/11/2012
I think the same of Gunther Grass.
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Marcus047
given up on HP
04:54 PM on 04/09/2012
I read this article, expecting to find something to find opposition to, but I can find none. A well reasoned and fair appraisal of the situation and the facts that influence the parties.
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Jose3
08:10 AM on 04/10/2012
on what grounds? 1) Israel does not acknowledge having or trying to develop nuclear weapons; 2) israel has never threatened to use nuclear weapons against another state; and 3) Israel's nuclear program is not in violation of any treaty obligations, unlike Iran's.
---------------

1. We know they do and it makes them liars.

2. Their existence is a threat.

3. What good is a treaty with liars?
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Gui Montag
Former Palestinian Supporter
09:10 AM on 04/10/2012
Fail.
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Marcus047
given up on HP
10:15 AM on 04/10/2012
failing to comment on something is not the same thing as a lie. They've never said they don't have nuclear weapons (that would be a lie), they've just refused to comment.

If we are judging whether a state or people are a threat simply by existing, I would suggest the addition of the following states and people to that list: America, Russia, China, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Burma, South Korea, etc

"What good is a treaty with liars?"

exactly, which is why a treaty with iran is not worth the paper it's written on.
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Baghooli
Immortals!
04:07 PM on 04/09/2012
"The Nukes of Hazard: Should Israel Strike at Iran While It Can?"
Observing Israel state resume, one can conclude they're not shy on being ruthlessly violent and if they could have attacked Iran, they would have done it by now, these threats are just huff and puff to distract people from eventually unfolding reality, Palestinian sovereignty!
03:14 PM on 04/09/2012
Funny how few ever talk about just *how* Israel would strike Iran — is it because despite having the mightiest military for mid-range attacks, the huge (additional) distance to Iran, with its widely distributed and often fortified nuclear facilities, have the Israeli air force actually less than meagerly equipped for more than some disastrous pestering? That would have this palaver appear as quite some hubbub indeed.

Here's a map of Iran's sites: https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=111822956

Let's look at Israel's known ordnance, then its equipment to deliver it.

Short of a "tactical" nuclear strike, bunker busters are necessary to touch about all Iranian facilities. Of the 100 GBU-28 (76m long, 2.3t a piece, penetrates 7m ferro-concrete) promised to Israel by the US only 55 are verified (in 2009) to have actually been delivered. Suffices to destroy the enrichment plant in Ghom, but won't even touch the new plant in Fordow. That can only be done with a MOP (6.2m long, 14t! a piece, 60m penetration) — only the US possesses these. Israel could not use those, anyway— [cont.]
07:55 PM on 04/09/2012
There was some very strategic denial by the White House Press Secretary durin Bibi's last visit. It had been reported that Israel had requested the more penatrative ordinance, and that the US military had agreed to provide it... and what's his name's response to a reporter's question on the issue was along the lines of: The Prime Minister of Israel did not request those weapons from the President.
04:34 AM on 04/10/2012
[cont.] — because the number of long range bombers in its inventory is 0. So how would it deliver the GBU-28, surely its ~ 320 F-16 must suffice? Trouble is, that plane was never intended for such missions and the only configuration to theoretically carry them out is Israel's indigenous modification, the F-16I — of which it has 25. Two bombs (for balance, not just one) could be attached to its wings and take 4.6t of its 10t load capacity, but also have it lose 1.3t of fuel capacity. Thus even in the most fuel efficient, but also most vulnerable flight configuration (Hi-Hi-Hi-Profile — high altitude at all time) its reach is reduced to 3200km, with Israel-Tehran ~1500km. A pilot would be suicidal to take those chances.

How about midair refueling? Two grave issues: Only jets can refuel jets, and Israel has but four converted Boeing 707, with recent rumors of the US selling further tankers denied. They are also very conspicuous on radar — just what SAM and AAMs are waiting for.

In conclusion: Without US backing, talk of an Israeli first strike appears hardly more political grandstanding. Well, from a factual perspective that is — it would not be first time certain politicians had forced cataclysmal decisions on its military.

Links
"Attack on Iran…" http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB16Ak01.html
"Ohne die US-Luftwaffe…" http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2012-03/usa-israel-waffen
05:18 AM on 04/10/2012
Correction: Meant are the 25 F-15I, which are modifications of the F-15E; Israel has ~60 other F-15. Of the F-16I, theoretically capable but still basically "just" an air combat fighter, Israel actually has 100. Sorry about that.
11:41 AM on 04/10/2012
What did you think of the analysis fromlast week regarding potential use of Azerbaijani airfields to refuel after such a strike? How about the two US carrier groups in the Persian Gulf? Couldn' such a strike force land there?
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YankeeCanuck
dog
02:47 PM on 04/09/2012
The first two sentences are hysterical. In every way.
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Marcus047
given up on HP
04:55 PM on 04/09/2012
only to someone in no threat of facing another holocaust and with no sympathy for those who do face that reality.
08:40 PM on 04/11/2012
Welcome to Hollywood.
02:18 PM on 04/09/2012
This is Israeli-Firster propaganda. It is perfectly rational for the Iranian government to acquire the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Iran is in between 2 countries that were invaded by US forces. Israel feels it can assasinate Iranina scientists at will.

The writer(?) chooses to use a discredited translation of Ahmadinejad staement on the future of Israel, and fails to mention the Ayatollah's repeated statements condemning the use of nuclear weapons.

Israel is in fact the most destabalizing presence in the mid-east. Iran's record of attacking neighbours looks stellar in comparison. Netanyahu and Lieberman are far more dangerous characters than the Iranian leadership.

According to the Christian Science Monitor we are paying 25 cents a gallon (US figures) to wage the Iranian sanctions. The cost is not worth it.
03:54 PM on 04/10/2012
Jimmy,
I am a proud America-Firster and I completely agree with the article. You are correct that it is perfectly rational for Iran to want nukes. They see that if they have nukes they won't have to answer for anyone when they wage wars, create proxies, and abuse human rights. They will be able to hold the world hostage with the threat of using their nuclear weapons.
It is also perfectly rational for the world to oppose and want to prevent Iran from being able to intimidate the world and threaten the use of nukes. Logic and reason would encourage the world to look at what Iran has done in the last 30 years at the very least and decide that Iran should be stopped.
Jimmy, you appear to be an Iran-firster which is sad because you have the freedom to write ridiculous things which is only afforded to you by countries that Iran wants to eliminate.
10:43 PM on 04/10/2012
Good points.
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Vlady
Better Late
01:37 PM on 04/09/2012
The bottom line for Israel

>> is their decision to make -- not Iran's, not Europe's and not America's -- because it is their blood on the line. The Jews have trusted the world to defend them in the past, and they have been betrayed. They must never make that mistake again. Never again.
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histnutt
Refuse to learn from history, repeat its mistakes
05:49 PM on 04/10/2012
Interesting how that phrase "never again" gets twisted by politics. Originally it meant never again a holocaust. Now it means never again trust another nation. But In spite of her distrust, Israel still wants the USA to launch an attack upon Iran for Israel's sake. This is irony.
Sorry, Israel, you can't have it both ways, Either you give to gain an ally, or you have no allies. Distrust all the world and you stand alone. That is your privilege, your cultural heritage, the policy of your government, and your self-imposed destiny.
This article is well written, even inspiring; but Vlady is correct: the bottom line is that the decision is Israel's to make — not Europe's, not Iran's, and not America's. What Vlady stops just short of saying is that Israel will live or collapse because of what emerges from within Israel, not because of what other nations say or do. I believe she will live. shalom l'yisrael.
08:43 PM on 04/11/2012
Ironically anti-Semitism is never used to describe Palestinian bashing, although they are Semites as well.
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Jose3
01:23 PM on 04/09/2012
Israel and the US are using the nuclear issue to hide the fact that the United Nations require sanctions against Iran simply because they legalized marijuana. The world would be laughing if Iran was bombed because of legalized marijuana.

Due to United Nations mandate against marijuana, sanctions went into effect against Iran.

To hide the ridiculous drug war that the government has no idea how to exit a nuclear threat is invented. With sanctions in place Iran responds with a small whimper that is interpreted as a threat to take Israel off the face of the earth and destabilize the region.

What a farce.
03:56 PM on 04/10/2012
Jose, you should do some more research again. Israel, which you have attacked in previous posts, actually has one of the most progressive policies on medicinal marijuana in the world. They are the cutting edge of medicinal marijuana. Don't trust me, trust an Arab news source: http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/03/201232514301340949.html
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Jose3
04:44 PM on 04/10/2012
It is a shame that you fall for that propaganda. Yes, the government allows authorized medical facilities extremely small amounts of low grade marijuana, but that is not what I call progressive.
04:58 PM on 04/10/2012
Israel also invented the cell phone