This past weekend, I attended the Aspen Institute's Clean Energy Roundtable, an annual gathering of business, political and policy leaders working in clean energy. Inspired by the many insights and ideas presented, here are my thoughts on the state of clean energy today and what lies ahead.
First the good news. Prices of key clean energy technologies are plummeting, bringing many technologies such as distributed solar and energy storage closer and closer to mass deployment. The cost of solar panels today is about 20% below that of a year ago. And it should continue dropping for the forseeable future. In other words, the performance/price ratio is improving exponentially, like computer chips if not quite as fast and for different reasons, cost economies for the most part as opposed to breakthrough technologies. The main driver of the plummeting costs is volume and successful efforts by the Chinese government to vertically integrate the Chinese solar industry -- that now supplies over half of the world's solar panels. (In advanced thin films, costs per watt are also coming down.) Even more dramatic price drops are occurring in battery storage across a range of chemistries with prices halving in the the last year. Plummeting prices that translate to rising performance are good news for developers, electric car-makers and the global industry at large.
The story is more complicated, however, in the United States, where we are in what might be described as the best and worst of times. This past year saw torrid growth in solar deployment in the US with solar capacity doubling; wind installations also grew and wind is now a very competitive source of power. Solar -- already competitive with subsidies -- will be competitive without them in several years. That is the good news. The bad news is that solar generation still supplies only .2 percent of US electricity and, what's more, growth has been driven by the 1603 provision in the tax law that allows tax credits to be redeemed for cash. This provision expires on December 31 this year. Since the financial crisis, tax credits deals to build everything from affordable housing to energy have exceeded the relatively thin pool of capital from investors seeking to shelter profits. That means tax credits absent the 1603 provision can be worthless. With extension of Section 1603 uncertain, the solar industry may face significant challenges beginning this winter.
Similarly, on the wind side, the end of the 1603 credit would take a toll and the production tax credit for wind, itself, expires at the end of next year. While companies are scrambling to start projects before these deadlines pass, afterwards activity may fall of the proverbial cliff. In short, while global fundamentals for clean energy remain strong, the sector remains quite sensitive to government subsidy. In the US with subsidy likely to change and especially with gas prices likely to stay low as more shale gas comes onstream, we may see more clean energy activity shift overseas. (One potential fix to this problem: moving clean energy off "subsidies" and giving them equal access to the master limited partnership tax break that extractive industries like oil and gas enjoy.)
Indeed, despite intense focus by Silicon Valley and the support of the US government, the US is not catching up with Europe or China on clean energy and in many measures, we are falling further behind. A few years ago, Germany adopted an export promotion plan that included factories as exports. It exported gas turbine and solar panel factories to China, which is how China has so rapidly come to dominate many areas of clean manufacturing. The Germans have done well selling machine tools to the Chinese while creating demand (and green power) at home through an aggressive feed-in tariff. The US, however, except for a few bright spots like Applied Materials that makes equipment to manufacture panels, First Solar, a thin film manufacturer, a few innovators such as Sun Edison and Tesla -- and a few large companies such as GE and IBM -- has yet to find its way.
Why? Unlike Germany that has deep credentials in improving manufacturing incrementally, we have excelled through innovating and creating new industries. For example, France Telecom deployed the minitel years before America went online, but US companies ultimately came to dominate online technology once we created the open Internet platform that allowed Yankee entrepreneurship to flourish. Yet despite developing scores of breakthrough energy technologies in our national labs and robust funding of clean energy companies, as I have written before, clean tech innovators have run up against the brick wall of a regulatory system that funnels purchasing decisions to regulated utilities. The latter are dis-incentivized by law to invest in new technologies. Meanwhile, in many states, the consumer remains locked out of the action entirely behind the Iron Curtain of the electricity meter. The sector is still attracting capital but time is running out to upgrade the regulatory structure to what I have described as Electricity 2.0 to create large, gatekeeper-free platforms that reward innovation and investment.
If there is one strong positive on the clean energy front, it is that the consumer has been given a small seat at the table, notably through the introduction this year of the first two electric cars, the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf, and in the form of the proliferation of direct generation of electricity, primarily from solar. The electric car is a technology that can engage the consumer on the ultimate playing field of new, more, better. However, if the the cars fail to thrill, clean tech will experience a potentially huge setback. For that reason making electric cars and charging infrastructure work has to be a key priority for the industry.
More broadly, the once almighty American Consumer who has not only driven domestic growth in recent decades by controlling a huge chunk of GDP but also funded the development of the Pacific rim, has been the missing force in the clean energy sector. Consumers are prohibited from directly buying clean energy by law in many states in contrast to communications or the Internet where consumer demand drives rapid product life cycles and profits at a speed in synch with venture capital.
Indeed, the write once, make money everywhere model of the Internet is providing stiff competition for capital to clean tech where local regulations and the gate-keeping role of utilities can sap the energies of even the best funded, most visionary entrepreneurs.
Nonetheless, my final takeaway was that while challenges abound, clean energy remains one of the largest, most important and potentially, most transformative projects of the 21st Century. Our job is to engage the consumer, sweep away barriers and play to America's strengths in innovation, entrepreneurship and out-of-the box thinking in the face of obstacles.
Michael Brune: Five Easy Ways to Get Clean Energy
Okay, so ethanol (corn/sugarcane/cellulosic) isn't the panacea some would have you believe, and methanol isn't either. What is better than either of these "oxygenate" fuels? Learn about higher mixed alcohol fuel: 138 octane, water-soluble and biodegradable fuel that can be synthesized 24/7 profitably in all 50 states from municipal solid waste, biomass, coal, methane and CO2. And it's already EPA registered/approved for blending and use in all types of gas and diesel engines without modification. No other liquid fuel can do all of this.
The real roadblock isn't a lack of capital or investment, it's a profound lack of understanding of the options by people on the street, and nearly all journalists.
http://www.biorootenergy.com
Great link too, thanks. fanned.
(can't seem to fav root comments anymore, the badges things gets in the way..anyone know the trick?)
Thanks for your message. We are collecting personal endorsements on the site to demonstrate to the rest of the world (potential investors, journalists, politicos, et. al.) that at least some folks understand this clean 138 octane fuel and support its development.
Much appreciated if you would post yours. Thanks in advance!
Moreover, if we were to invest even more we could become energy independent- which would be a MUCH more effective way of reducing national security risks than war.
Assumptions: $5000 per installed peak kW, 20% capacity factor, 800 Gigawatt installation, 2009 US MWh consumption, $0.09/kWh revenue net of operation and maintenance costs. Area estimate based on cross sectional area of Sunpower E19 solar panel X 1.75.
Solar is super cheap now! 75 cents per W http://www.sunelec.com/
list of cheapest panels: http://www.ecobusinesslinks.com/solar_panels.htm
May I point out one of the most important points. Germany is making machinery to make solar cells for the Chinese. And then import the solar cells to Germany. Now ask yourself why is that?
From what I understand making solar cells from melting sand with electric arch furnaces is very energy intensive. It seems to me that China is using cheap dirty coal energy to under cut the competition. Wonder what kind of regulations and more importantly restrictions they have for NF3 emissions?
NF3 is a chemical used to etch solar cells but it is 17,000 times stronger as a greenhouse gas as CO2 and long lived 500+ years!
Nearly all electronics use NF3 these days, not all solar cells do. It's completely separate problem. Right now, NF3 is the accepted legal replacement for the fluorocarbons.
http://www.ilovedogs.com/2011/07/i-love-dogs-donates-2000-to-world-vets/
HEROS...
http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/06/2-miles-of-solar-panels-now-cover-high-speed-rail-tunnel-on-amsterdam-paris-line-video/
snip
A tunnel in Belgium built to protect high-speed trains from falling trees is now covered in 16,000 solar panels (yes, you may remember Tina covering this project a bit as it got underway last October).
The two-mile tunnel prevents the need to cut down any of the trees in a nearby ancient forest and will now also be able to provide power to the Antwerp train station and the Belgian train network.
http://cleantechnica.com/2011/05/29/ge-solar-power-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-in-5-years/
I reported a month and a half ago here on CleanTechnica that renewable energy passed up nuclear in total installed power capacity in 2010 (worldwide) and has been adding much more power to the world’s supply for years. I’ve also written about the clean economic of renewables compared to nuclear or fossil fuels like coal a number of times. Now, GE predicts another important milestone along these lines in the coming years.
“Solar power may be cheaper than electricity generated by fossil fuels and nuclear reactors within three to five years because of innovations, said Mark M. Little, the global research director for General Electric Co. (GE),” Bloomberg reports.
Great diagrams
http://cleantechnica.com/2011/08/01/the-whole-town%E2%80%99s-gone-solar-%E2%80%93-potential-model-communities-in-fukuyama-and-onomichi-japan/
So proud of them!
2011 Fukushima
1999 Tokaimura
1993 Tomsk
1986 Chernoblyl
1979 Three Mile Island
1979 Church Rock
1957 Windscale accident
1964 Santa Susana (aka Semi Valley, CA)
xxxx SL-1 research reactor explosion
SHUT THEM DOWN
... then to help someone to be or become free
... must be the most sublime and rewarding of human endeavors. "
---> Elie Wiesel, Nobel Laureate
Freedom from the Threat of yet another Trillion Dollar Eco-Disaster,
... Caused by any Nuclear Reactor for ANY reason,
... Is what makes adding to these blogs meaningful ...
Nuclear Baloney (NB) can destroy your way of life,
... Any day, 24/7/365!
Ask The Japanese!
I also adde a large one to the Quake thread, enjoy!
Time to bring up "The Fuky Effect" again...
See you on and off today!
1. Nature does not follow nuclear design engineering specs.
... This makes every reactor World-Wide a Trillion Dollar Eco-Disaster,
... Waiting to happen anytime, anywhere 24/7/365.
2. We all share the same Atmosphere, so a Trillion Dollar Eco-Disaster,
... Anywhere on the Globe affects US ALL!
3. We all are surrounded by Ocean Water, so TEMPCO'S radioactive pollution,
... Will little by little pollute the Worlds Oceans, N☢T just the Japanese seas...
4. Solar Energy (of all flavors) Can provide Safe & Clean Energy for our Planet,
... If Nuclear R & D funding is applied to Solar R & D funding instead!
5. Nuclear Reactors and they're cooling pools are now all targets for terrorist,
... Solar Panels are not, because they cannot POLLUTE the Earth, like Nuclear!
6. Nuclear waste is both long lasting, poisonous and radioactive,
... Why should it be allowed to be shipped off and not stored onsite
... By those that created it? This is the Nasty little secret of the Nuclear Industry,
... Who wish to be the money maker but not the responsible neighbor of all of US!
7. Since 3/11 Governments have raised their "safe" levels of radiation, WHY?
... Because Japans TEPCO has release huge amounts of radioactive pollutants
... Into the air, which we all are now breathing!
8. Foodstuffs in Japan have become contaminated and the Japanese Gov't.
... Has only very recently started to monitor beef and other affected foods.
9. Additional H☢T Spots are discovered daily and the entire monitoring
... Process is questionable at best because radiation can spread daily.
10. Children, and especially pregnant women are much more affected by
... Radiation than Seniors, so expect to see greater health problems
... in both these groups of people starting on or before December 2012.
1. Immediate revamping of the NRC and how the existing reactors are monitored!. No more regulators being kissy kissy with the Industry!
2. Start a National Conservation Program with yearly increases to MPG and other "devices" that are national energy hogs like AC, Refrigerators and heating units.
3. Reduce Nuclear "off-sets" so that solar can become cost effective!
4. Begin the systematic shut-down of all reactors,(like Germany is doing) and develop a closure list based upon the reactors Age, quake threat, pollution threat, history of poor management and ability to replace by cleaner forms of power!
5. Start a Nation Upgrade plan, to reduce our dependance of foreign Oil and create jobs! This will "pay for itself" in future cost savings and put Americans Back To WORK NOW!
6. Start a National Education Program that teaches about Energy and Conservation, that includes modules on Earth Science, Math and includes Basic Solar installation Skills. (Starting in 1st grade and continuing through High School).
7. Provide Federal Grants of $10,000 to those that submit their ideas in a National Energy Improvement Contest, that will help energy "inventors" to further develop their ideas!
8. Restore Federal Tax credits for all forms of Solar & Energy Retro-Fits, this will result in saving our country BIG money in the future and also help build more efficient Solar Products!
See www.aesopinstitute.org for maps worth a few thousand words.
Avoiding catastrophe requires accelerating cheap, green, decentralized energy - which is now emerging. See A Nuclear Threat & Jobs; Moving Beyond Oil and E-Cat plus, on the same website.
"Electricity Consumers" = 85% of the load on the circuits - & - "Electricity Producers" = 15% of the load on the circuits. Both Consumers and Producers put a strain on the circuits.
But - Even though the "Electricity Consumers" are responsible for over Five Times as much stress on the electrical circuits than homeowners with solar panels... They are NOT required to pay thousands of dollars for impact studies before they're permitted or denied the ability to put a larger load on the circuits. (Does doubling or tripping your electricity consumption NOT increase the load on the circuits somehow?)
In my opinion - This practice is unconstitutional. "The Equal Protection Clause" in the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, says that "no state shall ... deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws".
But I guess equal protection doesn't apply to "Electricity Consumers" & "Electricity Producers" who both put loads on the circuits.
And - Why do individual consumers need to pay for these types of studies anyway? Do potential car buyers need to pay thousands of dollars for a Traffic Impact Study before they're allowed to purchase a new car? Of course not. Why is solar power treated differently than other forms of critical infrastructure?
I agree, The US Gov't should allow any one (including home owners) to put energy into the grid and get a credit for the same amount that utilities charge for the energy at that time!
This would allow home owners to add energy and get paid back for that energy in the same way that the Utility does!
Fanned and Fav'd!