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Michael P. McDonald

Michael P. McDonald

Posted: November 1, 2010 01:02 PM

I am forecasting that 41.3 percent of those eligible to vote will cast a ballot in the 2010 election and that 28.8 percent of those votes will either be cast in-person prior to Election Day or by mail. I provide state-by-state and national forecasts here.

These forecasts are based on the number of early votes cast so far and a comparison to recent similar elections. This forecast is more of an art than a science, since I am juggling multiple factors that may influence turnout. On the early voting side, the total number of early votes is fairly firm since most states have concluded in-person early voting -- though not all. The remaining question is how many people will vote on Election Day, from which an early-voting percentage can be calculated.

I strongly encourage anyone holding a mail ballot to check their state's deadlines. In many states, today or tomorrow is the last day for a mail ballot to be received by election officials. If you have not mailed your ballot in these states, you may still be able to return your ballot to your local election office or your polling place on Election Day. For other states -- notably Alaska and Washington -- mail ballots must be postmarked by tomorrow. If these Senate elections are close, as expected, we may not know who won for weeks. And if these elections are really that close, unleash the recount lawyers.

My best advice is always to check with your local election officials about your voting options.

Of course, if there is a larger turnout on Election Day than I am forecasting, my forecasts will be off. I am always pleased with higher turnout by all eligible voters, so I hope that my forecasts prove to be wrong.

 
I am forecasting that 41.3 percent of those eligible to vote will cast a ballot in the 2010 election and that 28.8 percent of those votes will either be cast in-person prior to Election Day or by mail...
I am forecasting that 41.3 percent of those eligible to vote will cast a ballot in the 2010 election and that 28.8 percent of those votes will either be cast in-person prior to Election Day or by mail...
 
 
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12:33 AM on 11/02/2010
The ONLY question now is, will you be the person who changes the equation by picking up the phone and calling just 10 voters today?

If each one of us calls just 10 voters in our area right now -- it could make a huge difference at the polls on Election Day.

Grab your phone and click here to connect with voters in your area right now.

Stand for America today and make a difference.

To call: https://call.barackobama.com
(This tool is so cool that you can use it for 10 minutes, or hours depending upon how much time you have.)

To find polling place: http://maps.google.com/vote
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08:55 PM on 11/01/2010
TK poll just came out:
67% of people prefer d-rats and 63% prefer rethugs, while 32% wants tea party and 87% of the voters are independent. It means that country is split with 130% for major political parties while 119% are againts them.
margin of error is 0%.
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MED1025
Here to save the day
08:38 PM on 11/01/2010
The words in all of the polls that render them as reliable as a horoscope is "likely voters". Given their sampling bias (land lines only). I think the next 24 hours are going to be very interesting indeed.
06:26 PM on 11/01/2010
I predict that 0% of those who don't vote will vote and 100% of those nonvoters will not vote.
04:43 PM on 11/01/2010
Campaign contributions are a barely-disguised form of bribery. Given this fact, we have one of the most corrupt political systems on earth at this time. If there is to be any true populist movement, correcting this problem which prevents the US from operating as a democracy should be the first order of business. Unfortunately, there is no true populist movement. The T party is a front for the same interests that have bought politicians and corrupted our political process.
04:33 PM on 11/01/2010
The HP is predicting 76% that the GOP is taking the House?? How about 99%?
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JaxReader
Hear reason, or she'll make you feel her.
04:56 PM on 11/01/2010
And the probability that the Dems will retain the Senate at 86%?? How about 100%?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dnlmsstch
too much for so few words
05:09 PM on 11/01/2010
That is based on the assumption that the voter turn out models (il likely voters in the polls) are correct - or close to correct. Acording to nate silver there is about 40% chance that the modeles are way off. 20% way off agaisnt the dems (meaning the dems control the house) and 20% against republicans which means this will be ha historical landslide. which is why it is 76% in the house and 86% in the senate.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mtrav
04:16 PM on 11/01/2010
What good is mailing a ballot the day before election day, how bizarre.
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LeFlaneur
does nuance.
08:43 PM on 11/01/2010
Less chance of getting beaten up by Tea Party volunteers.
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kostya
Ineluctable modality of the visual
03:55 PM on 11/01/2010
It really is incredible. If the turnout exceeds 45% of eligible voters, Dem losses mitigate significantly. Seems like a little GOTV might be appropriate. The Republicans are targeting a ideal turnout of 37%.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mtrav
04:16 PM on 11/01/2010
Their 37%
03:42 PM on 11/01/2010
The only question is, will you be the person who changes the equation by picking up the phone and calling just 10 voters today?

If each one of us calls just 10 voters in our area right now -- it could make a huge difference at the polls on Election Day.

Grab your phone and click here to connect with voters in your area right now.

Stand for America Today.

https://call.barackobama.com
03:41 PM on 11/01/2010
R's are winning EVERY single state on the early voting page! America Wins!!!

"No. No. NO! It is not God Bless America....It is GOD D**** America" - President Obama

Cause that ain't my America
That aint this country's roots
You wanna slam old Uncle Sam
But I ain't letting you
I'm mad as hell and you know I still bleed Red, White, and Blue
That ain't us
That Ain't My America
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
exPatPatti
Eyes Wide Open
04:07 PM on 11/01/2010
That chicken is well and truly effed.
02:59 PM on 11/01/2010
** * * * * * * * * * SAVE AMERICA * * * * * * * * * * * *

* * * * VOTE FOR EVERY DEMOCRAT * * * *