Does Scott Walker's victory in the Wisconsin recall election mean that Wisconsin is now in play in the November presidential election?
Short answer is no, for two reasons.
The first reason is that the exit polls show that if Obama was on the ballot, he would have won by a comfortable 51 percent to 44 percent margin.
What the exit polls do reveal for the Romney campaign is that 18 percent of Obama supporters voted for Walker. These persons represent potential persuadable voters that the Romney campaign will target if they decide to invest heavily in Wisconsin. What we do not know from the exit polls is why these voters would have split their vote between Obama and Walker. That mystery would have to be unraveled by additional polling to see if there is an opportunity to change these folks' votes. It very well could be that these voters' attitudes cannot be changed if, for example, they simply dislike recall elections. Still, even as Romney targets these voters, so too will Obama, so it will not be easy to changes these voters' support for Obama.
The second reason is that the recall electorate is different than what will likely be the November general election.
The total number of votes cast in the recall election was about 2.5 million, while about 3.0 million voters were present in 2008. Among those that chose to sit out the recall election are strong Democratic constituencies. In comparison to the 2008 exit polls, persons age 18-29 composed 16 percent of the recall electorate, while in 2008 they were 22 percent. Minorities constituted 9 percent of the recall electorate, and 11 percent of the 2008 electorate.
The presence of these Obama supporters in November will further tilt the balance evident in the exit polls in an Obama direction.
Additional polling would need to be done to determine why these key Democratic groups sat out the recall election, but it comes as no surprise. Like clockwork, young people and minorities vote at lower rates in state and local elections.
Certainly, these state and local elections affect all peoples' lives more directly, but for various reasons these groups do not perceive these elections as being as important as the presidential election. When the hand on the clock ticks to the general election, turnout among these groups will likely rise.
Of course, all of this is a snapshot of the Wisconsin recall electorate as of June 5, 2012. There is still a long way to go in the election. But, if Wisconsin is in play in November, it will likely be because the national mood has shifted towards Romney and there will be major problems for Obama in other battleground states. Wisconsin will perhaps be the least of Obama's worries if that comes to pass.
Peter Dreier: Big Money Wins in Wisconsin: Walker Spent 88% of the Money to Get 53% of the Vote
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/07/us-2012-president-48-obam_n_1577776.html
The other items I can agree with. If the youth come out again in droves and the minorities step it up again, Obama wins. Unfortunately for the dems, the enthusiam seems to be down on the youth vote ...
Purple yes ... still in the Obama column, more than likely.
The pre-election polling uses a different methodology to try and determine who will vote.
In none of the pre-election polling the week of the recall did Bennett finish 50-50. The most favorable poll showed him at a 47-50 disadvantage. That's within that poll's "margin of error" of plus or minus 3 points, so some reporters call it "a statistical tie.
Other pre-election polls showed Walker with about a 6-point lead - which is what he finished with. And even that result was still within the margin of error for the most favorable pool as Bennett finished with the 47% the poll predicted and Walker picked up 3 points.
This exit poll showed that 17% of the people who ACTUALLY DID VOTE in the recall said they intended to vote for Obama. That is a different methodology than any other poll currently conducted in the state.
Wisconsin is purple in that it has a Republican governor, one of the houses of the state legislature has a Republican majority, and has one Democratic Senator and one Republican Senator. But as it regards the Presidential contest, Obama's current numbers still give him an edge even if the entire margin of error were to shift to Romney's side.
But it's still very early in the election season to be worrying about these poll numbers.
Odd that this story was not front page on HuffP.......LOL, LOL
Yesterday, two national polls came out giving President Obama an 8-point lead over Romney, larger than his decisive 7-point win over McCain.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/us-2012-president-50-obam_n_1571761.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/us-2012-president-50-obam_n_1572091.html
Plus, he's 12-points ahead in Pennsylvania.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/06/pa-2012-president-48-obam_n_1574267.html
If anything, Romney will be lucky to only lose as badly as McCain did.
I bet you're one of those "one in a row," kind of persons, and start counting when the outcome is to your liking.