The Age Gap and What It Portends for 2012 and Beyond

Among the oldest saws in campaigns is that voter turnout will determine the election outcome. Of course this is true, but is has deeper meaning in light of a growing age gap that has emerged in recent elections.

You see, in midterm elections, the youth do not vote. In presidential elections, they do. According to the Census Bureau, the turnout rate of citizens age 18-29 was 25.4% in 2006 and doubled to 51.1% in 2008. (The 2010 statistics are not available yet, but should be similar to 2006.)

While turnout rates are lower for the elderly in midterm elections compared to presidential elections, they do not drop off nearly as much as they do not the youth. According to the Census Bureau, the turnout rate of citizens age 65 and older was 63.1% in 2006 and 70.8% in 2008.

This would not make much of a difference if the youth and the elderly held the same political preferences. They do not. The media's exit polls report that the youth and elderly are now more polarized than in any recent election. I call this an age gap, and I illustrate it in the figure which shows the support for Democratic House candidates among the young (age 18-29) and old (age 65 and older) as they vary around 50%. From 1992 to 2002, the age gap was never more than 6 percentage points. In 2004, the age gap widen to 10 percentage points, slightly decreased to 9 percentage points in 2006, and increased to 13 percentage points in 2008.

Support for Democratic House Candidates, 1992-2010

In 2010 the age gap was 16 percentage points, the largest on record. Now, because the youth tend to vote at low rates in midterm elections, this is a part of the Republican success in the 2010 election. It would be foolish to think that they will stay home in 2012. If we hypothetically apply support for Democratic House candidates in the 2010 election among various ages to the age distribution of the 2008 electorate, Democratic candidates would have received one percentage point more of the total vote. Some of those nail-biter contests won by Republican candidates would have likely been won by the Democratic candidates.

Smart politicians know that the 2010 electorate is unlikely to repeat itself in 2012. Expect them to adjust their policies and rhetoric accordingly if they plan to be reelected to another term in office. And to look beyond, expect the electorate to shift back towards the Republicans in 2014. If this age gap persists, and there is no reason to suspect it will not in the short run, we should observe a regular ebb and flow to the electoral fortunes of the political parties as young people move in and out of the electorate.

For those interested in this commentary and more, read "Voter Turnout in the 2010 Election" published in the on-line journal The Forum.

 

Comments

[David P]

02:20 PM on 02/06/2011

I started out republican, when I was in my twenties, and even voted for the Bush family a time or two. I also - proudly at the time - voted for Reagan. But over the years, as I become older, I became more and more liberal.

I am NOW a registered democrat - at age 54 - and voted for Obama in the last election. I intend to also vote for him again, in 2012. When people ask me what happened? I tell them that I grew a BRAIN!

So the old adage isn't true.

Sometimes when people get older . . . they get smarter.

[garystartswithg]

09:03 PM on 02/09/2011

My dad is a Republican -- so I learned what not be at an early age. Sorry it took you so long.

[roadtothemitten]

04:35 PM on 01/21/2011

At least I now have hope that America will move left as it ages.

[Coronakid]

06:17 PM on 01/16/2011

There has been a constant reduction in the number of people voting, and the reasons are quite simple, the people elected do not support the people who voted them in. We hear a lot of hollow words spewing forth, but we know unless the system changes their words mean nothing. So long as we have no say so or control over the actions of our elected officials it makes no difference who we elect. In 2010 Americans were looking for a fighter who would right some of the wrongs, but the person we elected does not know how to fight. The first step to a meaningful government is to eliminate the big money, it is simple to do, but our elected officials will not take the first step. So I no longer get worked up about elections, I just don't vote, and I don't want a say in something where what I say does not count. Let corporations select our representatives - they are serving them and not us.

[binkyblue]

11:52 AM on 01/13/2011

My kids, even in a conservative town, are champing at the bit to vote for liberals. My oldest will vote in the next election and he and his friends are way to the left of even their Democratic parents.

[cornelison]

02:34 AM on 01/15/2011

Fanned, binky. Young voters have the internet & other communication tools that keep them informed. They no longer depend on the corporate-controlled media for all their information. They're always telling us what we're supposed to believe about the "Independent vote" while overlooking the millions of Americans who never vote. You can bet that the majority of them are liberals and someone needs to motivate them to get to the polls.

[ENS1976]

11:37 PM on 01/12/2011

According to the mortality tables and the make up of the Tea Party's demographics almost 1000 Tea Baggers a day die of natural causes while there are thousands of new Democratic voters every day. The Young Hispanic vote that will be voting for the first time in 2012 alone will be over 2,000,000 new voters. Being young AND Hispanic I think we know how most of them will be voting.
The hate filled speech, and the vailed threats of violence may have worked in the short term for the GOP but they will be fatal for them in the long term. As I said last night, Chisel it in Stone.

[Sher1]

10:21 PM on 01/12/2011

As was put quite well... The young vote Democrat to prove they have a heart; as they age, they then vote Republican to prove they have a brain.

[Mona Lawrence]

07:20 PM on 01/15/2011

Seventy yrs and still a Democrat. Marched in DC for civil rights and protested the war. My partner is a graduate of Bob Jones and is 78. Became a Democrat in his 40s. I say he became enlightend. Intellectually we would go up with the best of the wing nuts;-)

[ed2291]

06:36 PM on 01/12/2011

The author says "It would be foolish to think that (the youth) will stay home in 2012."
Foolish, unless they believe with many progressives that Obama has become the third term of Bush in basic polices.

[axt113]

07:28 PM on 01/12/2011

Yes because Bush passed healthcare /sarcasm

[PrometheanSalvation]

04:58 PM on 01/12/2011

The end is coming for the conservative views that dominated the last 30+ years. The question is: what will the top 2% do to maintain their influence? They have been very successful in blaming the poor for poverty and the hungry for famine, as well as the wealthy for wealth. My generation (born in 75) won't fall for the same rhetoric that blinded our parents into betraying their children.

[Dave F]

03:23 PM on 01/12/2011

I frankly know almost no young people who are conservatives - and I live in a very conservative part of the country. The older people are conservative, and naturally somewhat more politically engaged. But the young are definitely not conservative, and hold quite progressive views.

The GOP as we know it will change dramatically in about 10-20 years (and that will be a welcome change, given what they are now - I actually used to be a Republican). It will have to, or it will cease to exist as a party.

[Tragiconda]

06:59 PM on 01/12/2011

Especially if people stop aging!?
Errr....

[Dave F]

08:15 PM on 01/12/2011

Right, because all those progressive young kids will magically transform into conservatives as they get older. Errrrr.....

[diversityreport]

09:19 PM on 01/16/2011

The appeal of the GOP is limited among our youth and it's also limited among some ethnic groups that are a growing percentage of the population. The combination will be a challenge.

[The Notorious PDF]

02:04 PM on 01/12/2011

the Democrats'­, and then in the Republican­s' favor, from presidenti­al year to midterm elections, for at least the next few election cycles. There was also a huge drop in the minority vote in 2010, which is another reason the Republican­s did so well. That also won't be the case in 2012.

[The Notorious PDF]

03:37 PM on 01/12/2011

Sorry, I had a little cut and paste technical difficulty there. The is the first part of that first sentence that was cut off.

“This is exactly what I said on election night, and I predicted that we'd see electorate­s alternativ­ely in

[The Notorious PDF]

02:03 PM on 01/12/2011

This is exactly what I said on election night, and I predicted that we'd see electorates alternatively in the Democrats', and then in the Republicans' favor, from presidential year to midterm elections, for at least the next few election cycles. There was also a huge drop in the minority vote in 2010, which is another reason the Republicans did so well. That also won't be the case in 2012.

[fishgirl26]

01:59 PM on 01/12/2011

Youth is very involved and will be involved in 2012. In the next 10-15 years we will see a shift in this country and the old social arguments(ie. gay marriage, abortion, gay rights) that have won the GOP elections will be moot points. As the old ideas die off w/ the baby boomer age the more progressive the country will become.

[BarryS]

12:33 AM on 01/12/2011

As these young voters age, they become more and more reliable voters. Then the GOP will be swamped. This will occur in 5 years or so.

[DiningPhilanderer]

01:44 AM on 01/12/2011

As these young voters age they will realize that you can't promise everyone everything and they will become more and more conservative. The GOP will be energized. This will occur on a daily basis.

[Andreams]

09:25 AM on 01/12/2011

I'm 62, haven't become conservative and am definitely energized by the GOP - makes me support Democrats more each day.

[Leadsled]

10:35 AM on 01/12/2011

False. Most data shows that political preferences are established in a person's youth and generally stay remarkably consistent over time. It especially helps if you're peers generally share your views and then there is a self-reinforcement thing which occurs.

If you look, age groups tend to vote together and remain politically similar over time. By and large generation Xers and pre-boomers are more likely to vote conservative, boomers are about evenly split and "echo-boomers"/"millennial"/"generation Y" votes overwhelmingly democratic. Each of these past generations kept their same political points of view over time, there is no reason to think this would change with the Yers.

[MrStat]

12:59 PM on 01/12/2011

Historical fact. As one gets older they tend to become more Conservative. Not in all cases, but the trend is there.

[axt113]

02:19 PM on 01/12/2011

Actually not true, read "The Macro Polity" Which uses regression analysis (using Stata) to analyze the post world war two electoral trends, an finds that voting behavior tends to be rather stable among age cohorts. So the idea that they will become more conservative with time is false, in fact they will likely vote more liberal their entire lives

[Edward Standley]

04:32 PM on 01/12/2011

A huge chunk of boomers came of age in the '60's and '70's. I'm one of them. I was a Dem then and I'm a Dem now. Ditto most every old boomer I know.

[Steve Holloway]

11:29 PM on 01/11/2011

That age gap might not persist, as young people realize the power they have to change the direction of the country, and to effect the state of the world. With the stakes getting increasingly higher, and when keeping everything the same is no longer an acceptable option, they may well show up in 2012, 2014 and beyond in very large numbers.