Overall, turnout was down in the Florida Republican primary from 2008. In 2008, 1.95 million votes were cast in the Republican primary, compared to 1.67 million cast in 2012 (reported by the Florida State Board of Elections as of the morning of Feb. 1). A decline of 280,000 votes. What does it mean?
Mitt Romney needs only to look in the mirror -- or better yet, the graph below -- to see who is to blame for the decline in turnout. The fact is, they're just not that into you, Mitt.
In the graph I've plotted by county the percent vote for Gingrich against the percent change in turnout from 2008 to 2012. The graph tells a clear story. In counties where Gingrich did better, Republican turnout was up over 2008. In counties where Romney dominated, turnout was lower.
Romney draws his strength from urban counties and Gingrich draws his from rural counties. The suburbs appear to the the battleground region with Romney winning suburbia in two of the three truly contested races so far.
The Florida turnout pattern was also evident in Iowa and South Carolina. Turnout was at least on par with 2008, if not higher, in Iowa and South Carolina because these states have more rural voters that were excited to vote for someone other than Romney. (Turnout was slightly down in New Hampshire, but I do not read too much into the decline because Romney was expected to win easily.)
This turnout insight provides a chance to evaluate the campaign strategies of the candidates in the primary and general elections.
As the Republican primary progresses, we may expect to see similar patterns emerge in contested states. Who wins or loses a state may be attributed at least in part to the demographic composition of the state. Fortunately for Romney, there are a string of favorable states lined up for him in the next month -- states with significant Mormon communities or more moderate voters. Gingrich's challenge is to survive the inevitable punditry calls for him to drop out as Romney racks up wins. If Gingrich can make it to the March 6th super-Tuesday primary, he will likely do well in some of these states and he can change the media narrative. The fly in Gingrich's ointment will be Ron Paul, who is targeting the smaller states that hold caucuses.
What will happen in the general election if Romney is the nominee is anyone's guess. I suspect that Republican conservatives will line up behind Romney, but they will not do so enthusiastically. And while Romney does well among moderate, urban and suburban voters, the lack of enthusiasm exhibited by these voters should caution Romney that he may not continue to do as well among these voters when his opponent is Barack Obama. This would not matter in deep red states, but could matter in some battlegrounds like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia -- states where the Obama campaign appears to be targeting and where he can rely on enthusiastic African-American voters.
Arnold M. Eisen: Moses, Pharaoh and the Candidates
Joi Ruth Orr: Mr. Gingrich, the Faith Community Has Occupied Your Campaign
Rev. Chuck Currie: Mitt Romney Not Concerned About People Living In Poverty -- But He Should Be
(west central Florida)
Some Repug voters will vote Republican no matter what.
But I don't see a lot of real enthusiasm for Mitt (or Newt or anybody else).
I think they wish there was another, better choice.
The problem is I doubt many independent voters are crazy about Romney and who can blame them?
Without winning the independent vote, Mitt can't win because independent voters decide almost all national elections.
In any event, he is by far the lesser of evils in comparison to Obama and if he systematically dismantles the social democratic state, beginning with ObamaCare, they will be as into him as necessary.
Moreover, unlike Obama, he can sign the law dismantling it.
Finally, he can support the extra-democratic attacks on the social democratic state launched by the Tea Party as they become necessary.
Gallup adds:
Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.
Gingrich will hammer Romney for at least the next few months eroding support. Romney will continue to go off message with comments such as I am not worried about the poor ( even if taken out of context, look at the frenzy generated) The economy/ jobs are starting to head the right direction albeit slowly. The Dems who some show as raising so far more $ than the GOP have barely spent a dime on advertising.
It is a bit early to predict we will be introducing Romney, America's
Richest President
In whose opinion? Liberals? All big 21% of you?
Mmm, the presidential race hasn't even begun yet.
Teacher unions panned parenthood and letting wall street out of there cages again
And there is the aborshion thing they keep wanting to shove down our you know what
And spend time on things like I don't know JOBS the debt doing there jobs
You are in for a rude awakening.
Finally we're talking real issues facing the country - American CAPITALISM; and its shift from innovators' and personal ownership's "Creative Capitalism" to Wall Street's "Venture Capitalism" for IPOs (initial public offerings) to "Speculative Capitalism" using hedge funds, market speculation and manipulation.
Now "Vulture Capitalism" takes over established companies in highly leveraged buy-outs then strips financial, human and technological capital. Extension of vulture capitalism is "Crony Capitalism" where investors walk-away with huge profits, while losses and debts are left to taxpayers, workers and host communities; with pay-off to politicians.
Its not H-1B visa holders, outsourced jobs, or currency manipulations that displaced middle class workers and decimated manufacturing. Rather "Vulture Capitalism" in coal, steel, textiles, newspaper, retail giants etc. with "Mergers and Acquisition" using highly leveraged buy-outs and friendly or hostile take-overs.
New company's top-management, bankers, accountants and lawyers take precedence (in compensation and job security) over workers, mid-level managers, researchers and product designers.
Corporate Vulture Capitalists
Deplete workers' retirement fund.
Pay themselves (top management) huge management fees, bonuses with golden parachutes.
Expend large cash on bankers, lawyers, accountants and consultants.
Pollute the environment for the bankrupt company to manage
Short-change host community and make them pick up the pieces, including tax liability and environmental clean up costs.
Vulture capitalists' skill, knowledge and interest are innovative talk, creative cash flow, net profit and ROI (aka spinmeisters, bean counters) rather than company's product line and technical operations.
Is articulate,
It is intelligent...
And it is logical.