Reading The Pictures: Birth Of Three Nations?

While George Bush moves back to a (dubious) success narrative to characterize the nation formerly know as Iraq, what remains unquestioned is his consistent and unqualified reference to a unified state. Of the many things conveniently unreported in the U.S., however, is political activity afoot in Iraq to officially, if not quite so cleanly, call it a day.

Along those lines, Marc Lynch of abuaardvark reports on a map that is going viral in Iraq.

As Lynch reports, the image in question was produced by the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and is also being circulated by and among Shia members of parliament. The main text is said to read: "Federalism is our one path to freedom and security." Not surprisingly, the Sunni section is ominously darker and appears to have lost land mass across its south.

Roads to Iraq (via abuardvark) points out a couple of other tweaks. Half of the Ramadi province (a Sunni stronghold) has been given over to the Shiite holy city of Karbala. Also, oil rich Kirkuk (currently in the hands of the Kurds) appears to have been incorporated into the dark blue Sunni area -- a telegraph, perhaps, on a strategy by the Shiites to try and buy off the Sunnis on a split?

Finally, take a look at those clasped hands. Because it represents a diad which graphically extends over the eastern border, it's hard not to think the embrace -- also extending deep into the south -- reflects the natural Shi'a instinct for connection with Iran.

(image: abuaardvark.com)

Comments

[rroy]

Picture being bogged down in a swamp on a dark moonless night without a compass,or a flashlight.If you take a course to the left,right,forward or backward,there is no way of knowing where you"ll end up.Yet all you want to do is get out of the swamp!
Our present fearless leader was preceded by a father who also fought a war against Iraq.He at least had enough sense to realize that defeating Iraq and killing it's leadership,would lead to such a situation.
There were three very likely situations that would result from such actions;
Not only Iraq but the entire Middle East would rise up and fight against another "Colonialist Occupation",Iraq would desolve into a revolutionary war with the eventual outcome being the return of Warlord and/or tribal rule,And Iran would lick it's chops waiting for the oportunity to jump in and exploit any power vaccuum at and beyond it's borders.
Well,King Geoge the first,along with other people capable of using good judgment and a knowledge of history,were right!
The final outcome of this mess and precisely what is a good course of action,is near impossible to predict!

[avergejoe]

Not surprised...

In regard to Iraq, the late Israel Shahak adds: "The idea that all the Arab states should be broken down, by Israel, into small units, occurs again and again in Israeli strategic thinking. For example, Ze"ev Schiff, the military correspondent of Ha"aretz (and probably the most knowledgeable in Israel, on this topic) writes about the "best" that can happen for Israeli interests in Iraq: "The dissolution of Iraq into a Shi"ite state, a Sunni state and the separation of the Kurdish part" (Ha"aretz 6/2/1982).

[SteveCamp]

To those who see Biden's plan for Iraq as some kind of forced solution, please take note that federalism and regional autonomy is the heart of the Iraqi Consitution.

To bring this about, however, will require the involvement of the United States acting as the broker of an International agreement to assist Iraq and protect it from its predatory neighbors. This is a job for the U.N., and Senator Biden's plan spells that out.

[peterg76]

It's not a final offer, it's a negotiating position. That's what happens in real democracies. Iraq may yet become one despite Little George's efforts.

The trick is that even the discussion about federalism might lead to peace breaking out, and the oil companies will resist that at any cost.

[jdm58]

What IS encouraging is the fact that the Iraqis are attempting to figure this out for themselves. We should take a clue, leave it for them to sort out, and bow out of the equation. It is their country afterall. If we try to heavyhand a solution on our terms it will smack of just more American Imperialist meddling to the Iraqis and the rest of the Middle East.

[bronceye]

Cool! Make it so. We're done. Can we handle peace?

[ConcernedCitizen78]

Bush and the neo-cons (read Zionists) wants to break up Iraq, regardless of what he says (Bush has always said one thing and done the exact opposite). That way, you have 3 weak entities instead of 1 strong unified nation, which is more difficult to deal with. At least 1 of the 3 weak entities will need US aid to survive - hence, the US will always have a permanent military base from which to project power in that region of the Middle East. It will also fulfil the Zionist strategy of no nation strong enough to challenge Israel.

[rwgate]

Sunni's are afraid that they will be frozen out of the oil profits, if Kirkuk goes to the Kurds and the Shia's take the south.

Not so fast! There are only 2500 oil wells drilled in all of Iraq. There are over a million in Texas alone. There are oil companies that are trying to set up drilling in the Sunni area. Is it unreasonable to believe that there might be oil in large amounts in the Sunni region that has not been discovered yet?

By the way, does anybody think that our $100 barrel of oil is going to get any cheaper? The insane monster in the White House knows well that an invasion or bombing of Iran will push oil into the stratosphere. Fortunately, his friends are in great position to profit from it. I wonder if Cheney already has his house picked out in Dubai?

[GuiltyByStander]

So what role for the US?

As Biden (Gelb, Brownback and others) have been saying, federalism is the answer. Our obligation is to at least mediate among the interests and protect the innocent.

This is where we have to leave the Bush doctrine behind, ask US Forces to change their mission, and bring most of them home.

[JSWAZ03]

Congratulations Iran! You will soon have a satellite state.

Sorry Sunnis. Move to Syria or Egypt (if you can) unless you like tooling around the desert bedouin-style.

An independent Kurdistan? There will surely be continued border clashes, but do the Turks have the balls to do something drastic if the large Kurdish segment in the southeast portion of Turkey want to hop on the band wagon with a free and independent Iraqi-Kurdistan? Maybe the hard-luck Sunnis will side with the Turks and commence in a all-too-typical Kurdish beat-down?

The 3-state option might be the only viable option left, but it sure doesnt give me the warm and fuzzy.

[Robert59]

The Biden Brownback plan lives. The enmity and their self interests are too great for Iraq not to become 3 states. Once people begin to accept federalism it won't be long before they take the next step, independence.

Sure seems obvious the Shiites have been giving this some thought. They already have the boundaries of the 3 new countries drawn out.

The only reason they show Kirkuk as Sunni Arab is to appease the Sunnis. The Kurds will never let Kirkuk fall as it would rob them of the resource they need.

When it's all said and done, the Sunnis will get the least profitable land which is fitting as they screwed the other two groups for hundreds of years.

[oldpotsmuggler]

"The birth of three nations?" Now there's an ugly thought.

Of all of the things this planet needs right now, dividing the population up into ever smaller ethnic enclaves is not one of them. With this kind of momentum, when and how do we get around to trying to put the whole house in order?

[cognate]

Kurdistan is shown way too small. Independent Kurdistan will include a large part of Turkey, where some 15 million Kurds now live. Iran and Syria will also lose territory to the Kurds.

It is to preempt independent Kurdistan that the Turks have been mobilizing their army.

Bush is a genius and didn't know it.

[ArjenBoatsma]

Who could have thought?

Duh.....

When in 2002 the bush cabal started talking about a war of agression against Iraq, I was among those who predicted both a Vietnam like scenario (the quagmire that the US army got in on orders from bush) and the Yugoslavia scenario (the Iraq nation falling apart along ethnic and/or sectarian lines). And I was certainly not the only one. A good number of people had come to the same predictions.

However, in those days the mass-hysteria about 9/11 (expertly whipped up by Karl Rove and his minnions, and repeated by the MSM without a hint of critical thought) was still holding this country in its grip. Critizing the president was akin to treason in those days.

Well, it is clear now that the suspension of critical thought by many individuals and certainly by the media and other opinion makers has been a mistake this country is paying for dearly.