iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Michael Thornton

Michael Thornton

GET UPDATES FROM Michael Thornton

Unemployed 99er Population Rises Dramatically by 127,000. The "Real" Long-term Unemployment Report

Posted: 04/ 7/11 03:57 PM ET

The March Employment Report was again pumped as another victory in the war against unemployment. But for millions of long-term unemployed, it's still a brutal battle to find work. That's why it's unfortunate that most main stream media outlets and politicos seem incapable of understanding, or chose to ignore the "real" unemployment numbers.

The BLS reported that unemployment (U3) for March was 8.8%, which is a slight improvement from February's 8.9%. 216,000 jobs were created, but that's a relatively small monthly number of jobs for what is supposedly a strong economic recovery from the Great Recession. In comparison, during the 2004 economic recovery, 338,000 jobs were created in March.

The Obama administration and media mouthpieces seem preoccupied with the U3, 8.8% measure of unemployment, but you need to dig into the numbers to reveal the "real" state of unemployment.

A disconnected news media conveniently forgets to mention that the US needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to simply keep up with new entrants to the workforce. If you subtract 125,000 from 216,000 jobs created in March, you end up with 91,000 "extra" jobs for 13.5 million unemployed.

Underemployment remained quite high at 15.7%, or 8.2 million workers who want full-time work, but are forced to work part-time jobs of 34 hours a week or less. Yes, full-time work is considered 35 hours or more per week, although many "real world" workers consider jobs of less than 40 hours a week as part-time.

But what was most striking about the March jobs report was the continuing increase in the number of long-term unemployed. According to the BLS, March showed 1,899,000 workers who have been out of work for 99 weeks or more, an increase of 127,000 from February. The real 99er population is growing quickly and shows no signs of abating.

NELP estimates (PDF) that "throughout 2010, 3.9 million unemployed workers exhausted all of their unemployment benefits without finding new work." Exhausting unemployment benefits also includes those unemployed that exhausted benefits after 60, 73, 79, or 93 weeks, so NELP's estimate is larger than the BLS estimate for those out of work 99 weeks or more.

Not only are more unemployed out of work 99 weeks or longer, but those out of work 52 and 27 weeks or more are increasing as well. Those out of work 27 weeks or more now accounts for a record 45.5% (6.14 million) of all unemployed, while for those out of work 52 weeks or more the rate is 31.5% (4.25 million) of all unemployed; again a record high.

The participation rate is another employment issue rarely discussed on the national media stage. According to the BLS, "the participation rate is the share of the population 16 years and older working or seeking work."

The labor force participation rate was unchanged, 64.2%, the same as the previous two months. This is the lowest labor participation rate since March 1984.

The March Employment Report showed some job gains, but not nearly enough jobs were created to put a dent in the long-term unemployment problem. Media talking heads and politicians looking for 2012 votes touted the March jobs report as a winner, but it was a loser for millions of increasingly desperate long-term unemployed who are struggling without jobs or unemployment benefits. Let's not hang those "Mission Accomplished" banners just yet...

 

Follow Michael Thornton on Twitter: www.twitter.com/layofflist

 
 
  • Comments
  • 67
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2  Next ›  Last »  (2 total)
11:17 AM on 04/17/2011
I am going to try to reword my comment; a 99er could have accepted "a job" any job and subsequently be temporarily laid off but who is receiving no unemployment benefits because of hours requirements, is that correct?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Nick9075
12:30 AM on 04/11/2011
One thing not being discussed is that many jobs that are being created are 'temporary' or 'long term temporary' 6 + months with the 'Possibility of becoming perm'. Typically you don't get any benefits. Cobra only lasts 18 months. After that you are on your own. Individual health insurance is eye poppingly priced. Here in Massachusetts it costs at least $850 a month for a single person with no health issues in their 30's and that doesn't include prescription coverage and comes with $5,000 deductibles.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
demilieu
Texas liberal...with reservations
02:42 PM on 04/10/2011
New career paths: slip & fall lawsuits, worker's comp., Social Security Disability. Dumpster Diving. The future is here.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
06:45 PM on 04/10/2011
All adventures in their own way, and the universe needed someone to explore these paths. Fate is upon us.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
11:40 PM on 04/10/2011
It sounds absurd, but my husband was seriously injured in a motor vehicle accident going on two years now. He is still struggling with the after effects of this injury. We are hoping that a settlement sometime in the next year will give us a little bit of breathing room financially.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
demilieu
Texas liberal...with reservations
02:26 PM on 04/10/2011
The official unemployment numbers drop as people run out of UI and fall off out of the count. UI extension is now a dead issue. McDonalds is hiring 50,000 folks at $85 a week (before deductions), so prosperity is returning.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
06:49 PM on 04/10/2011
"The official unemployme­nt numbers drop as people run out of UI and fall off out of the count."
NOT TRUE - Look at the CPS on the BLS website and come back to me and tell me the truth.

"UI extension is now a dead issue."
TRUE - And there was never a chance that it would pass, ever since Max Baucus said that 99 weeks was enough.

"McDonalds is hiring 50,000 folks at $85 a week (before deductions­), so prosperity is returning."
The situation is marginally better than it was on average, although improving very slowly. I don't know what value your obvious sarcasm brings to the whole situation, except to assuage your own feelings, presumably. Assuage away.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
11:42 PM on 04/10/2011
That's not true, demilieu.

Here's how the unemployment rate is calculated:

http://mollysmiddleamerica.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-unemployment-rate-is-calculated.html

Also, there are now more people officially unemployed (about 14,000,000) than there are people who are collecting benefits (about 8,770,000).
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
08:58 PM on 04/09/2011
I think you Liberals feel that someone should care about someone being out of work for 2 years.  I FEEL for you guys.  But at what point does someone who has been unemployed for two years realize that things have changed.

The job market you want to return to will never be there.  The job market has changed.  I'm tired of 99ers and other liberals complaining because they thing they are entitled to a job.  You are not.  No matter how much you believe you are, there is never going to be a job that hires you because YOU believe YOU deserve it.

99'rs, how many weeks of unemployment do you guys want?  I got it, Untill the jobs come back.  Realize they aren't coming back.

I understand your ability to highlight one individual and complain how this American has lost their job.  But at the end of the day, realize the job market has shifted.
03:21 PM on 04/10/2011
Yes, the job market has changed. There are fewer and fewer jobs of ANY type in the US. So, please tell us what the long-term unemployed person is to do who has looked and looked for work, but can't find any. The person can't afford to go back to school to get training for a new career, as if there were jobs in THAT area (whatever it is). Name me career areas that want new employees, but can't find them. I'm sure the unemployed would be very thankful.

Please don't tell the jobless that they need to start their own business. Not everyone is a great entrepreneur. Even most of us who think we ARE entrepreneurs fail at trying to get a business off the ground. First, it takes a good business idea for a product/service that people are willing to pay money for. Then, it takes capital that most don't have. Then, it takes great organizational and management skills that few people have. Finally, it takes really good LUCK.

Should the jobless move to China, where the jobs are? Someday the Chinese will also be out of work, because businesses are becoming more and more automated (they don't NEED many employees). So what happens to all the unemployed? This is going to be a larger and larger issue as time goes on. (Read "The Lights in the Tunnel" by Martin Ford for one perspective on this issue.)
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
08:57 PM on 04/10/2011
Well, the long-term jobless have to do something to change their situation. In fact, they already have because they have had to make radical changes to stay alive. It's survival of people who want to survive now.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
11:56 PM on 04/10/2011
O.K., O.K., you are assuming (as usual) that people who are unemployed for two years have not bothered to look outside of their field. You are assuming that they are not willing to take minimum wage or entry level jobs somewhere.

If you actually bothered to communicate with many long-term unemployed people (not just the lazy brother-in-law who is abusing the system), you would realize that most of the long-term unemployed have been looking frantically for work since they were laid off. They probably tried to get a similar job during the first weeks of unemployment, then, as the weeks went on, they expanded their search. As more and more months went by, they applied to retail, minimum wage, only to be told they were "overqualified".

Right now there are millions of people who are unemployed (officially 14,000,000) and only 8.770,000 are getting benefits. That should serve to prove that the reason that people are unemployed isn't because they are getting lazy on the government dole, but that there are NO jobs... still. Why else would someone lose his/her home, experience serious financial distress, and not work?

You talk about "the job market has changed". The oldest among us are hit the hardest by long-term unemployment. In March, the average person 20 to 24 years old was unemployed for 32 weeks. The average person 55 to 64 years old was unemployed 52 weeks. 52 weeks.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
04:21 AM on 04/09/2011
Statistics are the trash talk of politics.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
11:57 PM on 04/10/2011
??

Your point in terms of this article is.....??
09:10 PM on 04/08/2011
Maybe someone will notice when the 99ers don't pay any taxes this year because they didn't work.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
04:23 AM on 04/09/2011
Some do, some don't.

Don't forget sales taxes, for instance. Unemployed people still buy things and when they do, they pay taxes (unless they're dealing on the black market). Also don't forget taxes on intrest and dividends. You pay those whether you're employed or not.

It's probably more accurate to write that 99ers don't pay income taxes because they didn't work.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
11:59 PM on 04/10/2011
Um.... taxes on interest and dividends are income taxes. You include them and pay for them on a 1040.

But if your total income is very low due to long-term unemployment (you do have to pay taxes on unemployment insurance), you may not have to pay taxes on dividends and interest.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
demilieu
Texas liberal...with reservations
02:38 PM on 04/10/2011
Federal revenues are down from the recession. The IRS already noted this in 2010.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ligligl
feelthy liberal! ...and not just a pretty face!
04:22 PM on 04/08/2011
This is the most shameful episode of the present conversation. The 99ers (et al) are a win-win. They drop off the unemployment rolls and thus lessen ther numbers of unemployed. They stop whining because nobody cares, and the country bumbles along without them. This is the new version of elderly Eskimos being set adrift. Our President on this issue: absent. Our legislators: absemt. The news media: absent. HP relegates ther issue to a squib rather than a headline. Billions for MIC welfare but no funds for the detritus left by the recent corporate rape of the economic system. Cheer up 99ers, your day is coming! Someone will give you a six-foot plot of land you can rest in. The modern-day version of 40 acres and a mule.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
10:13 PM on 04/08/2011
The number of unemployed calculated by the BLS is not connected to whether a person is receiving unemployment benefits or not. Even though you and a million others say this, it is not true.
11:55 AM on 04/09/2011
Thanks. How are unemployed counted then?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
demilieu
Texas liberal...with reservations
02:32 PM on 04/10/2011
My state uses UI numbers to calculate the official jobless rate.
11:54 AM on 04/09/2011
Pres. Obama didn't even try to do anything for the 99ers in the deal he cut with the GOP to extend the Bush tax cuts back in December.
01:50 PM on 04/09/2011
F&F
You got that right! I fact I'd go further and state that Obama seldom exerts himself for anything other that assiduously currying favor with his rich pals.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dennidus1680
05:24 PM on 04/10/2011
And don't forget what a great deal it was,keeping an already given benefit for extending and already taken tax break. With that kind of horsetrading, I'm sure there are people out there who'd like to sell them a bridge somewhere, cheap.
12:38 PM on 04/08/2011
"A disconnected news media conveniently forgets to mention that the US needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to simply keep up with new entrants to the workforce."

It's called "mass immigration". Game over.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
12:16 AM on 04/11/2011
It's also more people turning 16 and entering the "labor force" than are dying off each month.
12:08 PM on 04/08/2011
The 99ers, those approaching 99er status, and even the recently unemployed need to learn how politics works.

Because they are unemployed, they don't have the money to make large (or perhaps even small) campaign contributions. That means that unless they volunteer in large numbers to assist campaigns and convince politicians that they will vote as a group, they and their needs largely will be ignored.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
04:26 AM on 04/09/2011
The only 'campaign contribution' I ever make is in the voting booth.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
08:50 PM on 04/10/2011
There is no groundswell of support among voters for extending 99er benefits. Anyone say I'm wrong?
12:00 PM on 04/08/2011
I'm trying to understand. If someone works two part-time jobs that average more than 35 hours a week, but they want a full-time job. Are they considered part-time or full-time?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
01:17 AM on 04/11/2011
I believe that they would be counted as "part-time for economic reasons" regardless of how many part-time jobs they have.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vcjpolitics
08:01 PM on 04/15/2011
They are still part-time. Those 35 hours would have to be at a single job to count as full-time. As long as businesses keep workers under 35 hours, they don't have to pay them benefits.
photo
Mister Grumpy
An Angry American
07:16 PM on 04/07/2011
And then because of the GOP....... some states are cutting back on unemployment benefits..........

I guess those people can just starve.......... Afterall the GOP thinks everyone without a job is lazy......
01:51 PM on 04/09/2011
Welcome to neo-feudalism American style!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
01:15 AM on 04/11/2011
This is really disturbing. Mike wrote about what is going on with some of these states in his examiner column:

http://www.examiner.com/unemployment-in-rochester/states-cutting-unemployment-benefits-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-h-r-589
photo
angry in ct
You can't fight in here, this is the war room
07:14 PM on 04/07/2011
As a 99er, all I can say at this point is, to quote the great Sonny and Cher tune, that "the beat goes on".
01:58 PM on 04/09/2011
Or Kurt Vonnegut in Slaughterhouse Five "...and so it goes...". You have my sympathy (and vote to changes things) for your plight. Few in our country seem to give a d@mn about the swelling ranks of the victims of our financial wreckage - the responsibility of Wall Street and our craven and greedy politicians.
F&F
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
08:53 PM on 04/10/2011
It's a train wreck but there's no going back to the way things were before, so the 99ers just have to accept it and work for whatever they can get. Including welfare and food stamps. Be realistic and know that in the current political climate there will be no more help for 99ers.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
06:23 PM on 04/07/2011
Here's what "NELP" is;

http://www.nelp.org/
National Employment Law Project
photo
Computer Geek
Logician Atheist Lefty
05:34 PM on 04/07/2011
Isn't it just amazing how little factual information is disseminated by news organizations these days? Just pick a number. That must be right because that is what the government says it is. But yet, the government stops counting those who have given up and dropped out of society because of how they've been treated by their own country. Can't say I blame them for giving up. And don't plan on any of them helping anyone else ever again. That is the true loss. To become so embittered by the injustice that they have been dealt to turn it into total indifference to other humans. But that is the sad truth of who America is becoming. Both by those who are still functioning (working) in the society and also by those who have been thrown to the curb. This is why and how revolts occur. It is very, very sad.
02:13 PM on 04/08/2011
Most 99ers have NOT given up. The media words it as "those who stopped looking for work" which is NOT true. The truth is that the government is NOT including 99ERS in the unemployment numbers ..."those who NO LONGER GET BENEFITS." Word it the real way so the public understands that we are NOT LAZY PEOPLE WHO ARE GETTING CHECKS AND NOT LOOKING FOR WORK. THE MISCONCEPTION IS KEEPING US FROM GETTING HIRED.
11:58 AM on 04/09/2011
A friend who is a 99er just applied for Social Security. I'm a 99er, but am not old enough to qualify for Social Security, so can't give up.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
01:11 AM on 04/11/2011
The 99ers are counted in the unemployment figures if they are still looking for work. Right now, there are 14,000,000 "officially" unemployed and only 8,770,000 collecting benefits. Just those figures alone should make it clear that many people are counted as unemployed but are not getting benefits.

But the conception that the long-term unemployed are "lazy, not willing to take low-paying jobs, not competent, etc." is very, very disturbing, especially since older people, many with advanced degrees, many who have decades of great work experience, are over-represented among the long-term unemployed.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
01:08 AM on 04/11/2011
The 99ers are counted as unemployed as long as they keep looking for work:

http://mollysmiddleamerica.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-unemployment-rate-is-calculated.html

I'm not sure at all that most of them will never help someone else if they can. I know that, if our situation improves, I will be more compassionate.