How Obama Saves Iran (and Himself) by Dithering

If Iranians overthrow the horrid Ahmadinejad, the winner last week of an obviously fishy election, that will be a vindication, the Obama administration will certainly maintain, of the president's rhetorical restraint. If, on the other hand, the nascent rebellion is crushed by force or otherwise, then it would certainly seem that the president's failure to join the side of righteousness is going to haunt him.

It could be similar to the 1950s chorus of blame heaped on the Democrats for losing China when it fell to Mao. This time it will be heaped on President Obama for failing to help save Iran when the opportunity presented itself.

Of course, he's damned, the administration is already suggesting, whatever he does. If he thumps his chest then Ahmadinejad and his lock-step Mullahs will call the uprising an American operation, which offers all the more reason to crush it. And if it is crushed, and Ahmadinejad remains the man we've got to do business with--remember, this president will talk to anyone--it will be all the more difficult if we've doubled-down on our antipathy for him.

The president's posture now is to openly overthink the situation. He's a walking existential conundrum, and letting everybody know it.

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Comments

[dsws]

The US has no right to intervene on behalf of a candidate in a disputed election for the sake of advancing our interests. The US does have the same right as anyone else to intervene in human rights violations. We need to limit our actions enough that it's clear that we're within our rights.

[RobertHenryEller]

President Obama knows that, whatever happens in Iran, the US will have a tough negotiation on nuclear power/weapons with whoever is in charge.

Trying to "pick a winner" at this point can only make those negotiations more difficult, again, no matter who wins.

In fact, by not choosing, and, in fact, waiting to be "chosen," President Obama will give political legitimacy to whomever is in power in Iran when and if negotiations commence on these issues.

Fortunately, President Obama is smart enough to know this.

[wwwtips]

Finally USA elected an intelligent president. Any american intervention in the Iran will back fire in their future discussion with Iran regarding their nuclear program. Only those big mouth and small brain conservative like "boom boom McCain can keep talking nonsense american intervention in Iran.

eugenefromcanada

[MarkOfBrooklyn]

How do you really think America can "save Iran". There is no relationship to leverage, only military might. Is that your option. The mullahs don't really care what America thinks of them, but they fear that their people will think well of America. Too many Americans have a God/Saviour/Hero complex when it comes to thinking of America's relationship with the world. That is the source of our goodness and our faults. Sometimes intervening and being too helpful to patients in a car accident causes more harm than good. We ought to exercise caution this time around with Iran.

The lower level US rhetoric does not unnerve the leadership into rash actions of major suppression, so they think that time is on their side. We should not unnerve them. Every day the opposition protests, makes them stronger and more likely to achieve something good.

Stop the God Complex. Stop the Hero fantasy. This time America cannot be the direct saviour and come to the rescue.

[ailbhe]

Good post.