Election Surprises

Conventional wisdom is predicting a Republican sweep of the elections. It has been for some time, and has been reinforced by the media over the last few days with a steady drumbeat of stories about how the Democrats are being swamped with too much money to come back. Some Democrats are arguing there is reason for optimism, based on a variety of different factors. What to believe? People not steeped in political history might wonder how often the conventional wisdom gets upset in actual election results. Since I am an old guy and have been doing this election stuff for a while, I thought it would be worth sharing some stories of past campaigns, because surprises happen more often than a lot of people realize:

• In 1980, the polling going into the final weekend of the election showed the race to be a statistical dead heat. That weekend, I was going out knocking on doors for Democrats, and when we got back from our rounds at night, none of us were feeling very optimistic because people seemed in such a negative mood toward Democrats in general. The election broke all toward Reagan and Republicans in general the last 5 days of the campaign. Carter lost by 7, and took a lot of progressive Democrats down with him.

• In the fall of 1986, Reagan was pretty popular, the economy was going along alright, and Congressional approval was relatively good. But as the election came down its stretch run, Democrats in key Senate races were able to capitalize on the restlessness of working class voters whose wages hadn't gone up much in the previous several years, and on the right wing extremism of several of the Senators elected in the 1980 landslide. Democrats surprised the pundits by retaking control of the Senate that year.

• In 1994, most pollsters were predicting Democrats would lose 25-30 seats in the House. In the last ten days of the race, we started getting panicked reports at the White House about discouraging numbers being produced in absentee voting and early voting as our base just lost interest in the race, and we ended up losing 52 seats.

• In 1996, Stan Greenberg and I had lunch in mid-October, and our read of the numbers was that we were very likely to retake control of Congress. Four days later the campaign finance scandal broke, and while it didn't have a big impact on the presidential race, it had enough of one that our momentum in Congressional races was halted and we only picked up half of the House seats we needed to retake control of the House.

• In 1998, pundits were widely predicting big Democratic losses- 25, 30 or more seats in the House. A small group of us (Greenberg included) became convinced the tide could be turned by telling voters it was time to move on from the Lewinsky scandal and focus on the real issues that mattered to America. That message, strongly resisted at first by the DCCC and DSCC, ended up working in key races all over the country, and we ended up picking up 5 House seats.

• In mid-October 2006, picking up the 15 seats we needed to win the House was considered a very close call, and winning the 6 extra seats needed to pick up a Senate majority was considered a very long shot. But Republican scandals kept dropping, and the tide built for the Democrats, and we won 31 House seats and the 6 close Senate seats we needed to win.

With two weeks yet to go, and poll numbers bouncing around like a pinball on steroids, don't bet the money on any result in these elections. I have just seen a round of polling in a bunch of the competitive House races, and most of them are either within the margin of error of the poll, or very near it. Any last minute news story, breaking issue, dumb quote by a national political figure, or last second move in the national polls either way could shake things up just enough to cause a different result. I would also recommend keeping an eye out for some big surprises in particular races. My favorite example because of my years in Iowa politics: in 1998, Tom Vilsack was 20 points down two weeks out. Then the national mood started to shift, Vilsack had a great last ad, and an upset was had. Here's a couple of sleepers that might just develop if things break right:

1. Alaska Senate. I have written before that this race reminds a lot of when Carol Moseley-Braun won her Senate race, or when Gray Davis first became governor of California. In both cases they were running way back in 3rd place, had far less money and no attention compared to the other 2 candidates, and pulled out shocking wins because the top two beat the hell out of each other. It's very hard to tell, but it could happen in Alaska: same dynamic with Miller and Murkowski beating away on each other; Miller is making a stupid mistake just about every day; Murkowski has to deal with a complicated system for writing in votes; and the Democrat McAdams has picked up 7.5 points in the last couple of weeks. Keep an eye on this one.

2. Ohio Senate. Everyone wrote Lee Fisher off months ago in this race, and just today a public poll showed him 22 points down. But I have seen two other polls in the last 4 days that show the race in single digits, and I have also seen polling numbers that show 30% of Portman's voters have the potential to go bye-bye if they know about his role as Bush's trade rep shipping jobs overseas.

These kinds of upsets do happen all the time, especially if the national political environment starts to shift even a little bit in the last couple of weeks.

Democrats have some powerful issues to motivate voters as this race draws to a close: trade and outsourcing; Social Security; foreclosure fraud; secret corporate (including foreign corporate) funding of elections. This election may only be two weeks away, but it is far from over.

 

Comments

[Debbie Hines]

07:21 PM on 10/20/2010

I do not buy the media hype and much of it is exactly hype. No, I'm not delusional or on a fantasy trip. There's one factor that is being overlooked and that's the effect of President Obama as the first AA president and the extent to which the Black vote, particularly women will come out to stand and support him. There's 5 million AA first time voters who voted in 2008. There is also the youth vote. Neither will come out like 2008 but many races will be decided by only 2000 votes or so. The DNC has been putting forth unprecedented efforts to get out the Black vote, including first time voters and long reliable voters. I think everyone, is going to be surprised at the results on Nov 2, including those democratic members of Congress who wrote off the President. It won't be pretty but a win is a win. I think the Dems will keep Congress and the Senate.

[Jaybird248]

10:29 AM on 10/20/2010

This is anecdotal but I visited an early voting site yesterday and it was extremely crowded. Since this is a safe South Florida Democratic district (19 CD), I have to assume the base was coming out strong.
Maybe a surprise is underway. Remember Truman in '48.

[Randolph Greer]

10:17 AM on 10/20/2010

To me , the most rediculous numbers I have seen this election season are those which show Rob Portman leading Fischer in Ohio . Talk about people voting against their own interest . The people of Ohio are doing exactly that if they elect Portman . He stands in direct opposition to all the things which most concern the people of Ohio and the rest of the country . He is the exact opposite of Sherrod Brown and if Portman is elected , he will always cancel out Brown's votes for the people . He will no only support the banks and insurance companies , he will support any trade agreement that takes what's left of the jobs in Ohio . But you really know the worst part of it all . Portman is just an "empty suit" Republican . He really does believe that governments have no role in working and serving the people . His door will always be a closed one to the constituents he says he wants to represent . Of all the candidates running this year , he will do the least for America and its people .

[hi Im back]

09:27 AM on 10/20/2010

I do not like the way the media calls the winners MONTHS before the elections, then WEEKS, then DAYS, then HOURS before the elections shut down.
If they are screaming BOZO the CLOWN appears to be the `clear` winner, why would you make a trip to go vote for RONALD MCDONALD?
They act like it has already been decided, before the votes are counted????
Or have they REALLY been decided by a few-and the election a hoax??????
It gives the appearance of ~pushing a preference~ for THAT MEDIA's favorite.
Should not be allowed.
The polls are a farce.
I can go to a Chamber of Commerce meeting, and asked~ prepared~ questions---and I will guarantee you the Republicans will win each time!!!!!!!!!!!
Do your own homework people-you'd be surprised how many vote because a name sounds 'cute'.
Like SKEETER running for mosquito commissioner in Florida?
There ya go!

[bigfro]

09:11 AM on 10/20/2010

Has it really come to the place where is someone doesn't like Obama you censor it. I only said vote dem this year even if you don't like Obama, and vote Obama out in 2012. If this is hate speech or over the line, then I'll just find another website. Most dems aren't beholden to corporations as much as Obama . the white house is always against anything that helps people. Just like the white house was against that judge stopping DADT.

[vokesk51]

08:50 AM on 10/20/2010

One other thing to watch is who is conducting the polls. AP and the Wall Street Journal in particular show much higher numbers for Republicans and AP's headlines are gobbled up by the mainstream media as if they were gospel. A classic example is a headline last week that said "Palin speaks to huge rally". Well the "huge rally" turned out to be 2,000 people at a meeting of the RNCC. A rally of 35,000 to hear President Obama speak at Ohio State University was captioned "President tries to rally base", a deliberate attempt to downplay its significance.

There's every reason to believe Hispanic voters, who have been under assault by Republicans, and African Americans, who overwhelmingly support the President, will turn out in numbers close to '08. And no one should underestimate the Stewart/Colbert rally for energizing young voters and the "silent majority" of moderates who comprise 2/3 of the electorate.

As in every election, there's always the potential for a last minute game changer. But in this election it could be the release of the Wikileaks documents, which undoubtedly will contain more damning revelations about the Iraq war and remind voters how the Bush-Cheney administration lied to get us into that mess.

I think the Democrats will not only keep their majorities in both houses, but keep them in numbers that will shock the so-called "experts" who are predicting a Republican "tsunami".

[lindabear]

08:48 AM on 10/20/2010

I think the media hype is crazy. The true voters are not buying into it and there will be a good turnout for the midterm.

[Radicalreader]

07:51 AM on 10/20/2010

Independents might not vote for either side making the democrat vote stronger.

[Torus34]

07:41 AM on 10/20/2010

To be quite honest, I don't believe any prediction.

I'm patient enough to simply wait for news reports on the day after the elections take place. While not complete [there will be undecided races], they will be far, far more accurate than any current prediction.

[Iceman11]

07:22 AM on 10/20/2010

Come to Minnesota. Republican con man Governor Tim Pawlenty's term is about to end, and a Democrat Mark Dayton is looking like the winner to succeed him. A third party candidate is taking about 20% of the vote and it would have all gone to the Republicans. So all is not lost Democrats !

[dogdiva]

06:39 AM on 10/20/2010

I have concerns about the growing popularity of early voting. This year is the perfect example of a time when 1 week before the election some of these TP candidates could hammer the nail in their own coffins and some for whom some action or stupid statement might just be the last straw will have already voted.

If enough people go to early voting, we will be getting a barrage of campaigning and expenditure that much earlier. It would be nice to see the electioneering DECREASE in size rather than increase.

[Shane - Ireland]

08:01 AM on 10/20/2010

If early voting allows for an expanded electorate, my understanding is that this usually favours the dems. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

[dogdiva]

09:25 AM on 10/20/2010

I hope so. At least they have a chance of skirting voter suppression that seems to be on the rise. My concern is really about those Independents who might change their minds very shortly before the election.

[GunnyJ]

06:26 AM on 10/20/2010

Plain and simple, no polls needed. If registered Democratic voters vote, Democrats will maintain control. If Democratic voters stay home, Democrats lose. You can't make it any easier to understand than that!

[HisPetGoat]

03:43 AM on 10/20/2010

I predict Democrats will keep both houses.

[FalseConsciousness]

03:43 AM on 10/20/2010

"There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party...and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. Republicans are a bit stupider, more rigid, more doctrinaire in their laissez-faire capitalism than the Democrats, who are cuter, prettier, a bit more corrupt—until recently... and more willing than the Republicans to make small adjustments when the poor, the black, the anti-imperialists get out of hand. But, essentially, there is no difference between the two parties"

---Gore Vidal

[NeutralLight]

04:33 AM on 10/20/2010

So there are no mainstream Communist or Fascist parties in the US? Most people believe ("swallow the line"?) that a society based vehemently on the principle of personal freedom will by course support a free enterprise system?

What a provocative and revolutionary insight!

[lodger16x]

03:39 AM on 10/20/2010

Obama and the DEMs are going to be pounded, and they deserve it. 'Mr. Change" picked "Mr Insider" Rahm to guide him, he bowed down to Wall St, K St, and the Pentagon, and he doesn't understand why his base criticizes him. I really don't think Obama cares who wins in NOV. Negotiating with Lieberman and REPUBs who hate him is like rolling in clover to Obama, if he can pass a bill declaring, 'Never Frozen Pastry Day', he will try to ride that all the way to victory in NOV 2011!