Everyone is talking about what the Democrats should do. I have been in meetings with a bunch of big donors this week where primarying Obama was an open topic of discussion. I have in front of me a memo from the Third Way arguing that all the president has to do is move to the center, although they don't choose to define what they mean by that in this particular memo -- I guess that definition is to come later. I have been hearing from Democrats all over a rising panic that the President will never stand up to Republicans, and we are doomed, doomed, doomed. Well, sit back and relax, friends and neighbors, because it is way too early to panic. Besides, I have thought up the solution to everything.
Before I get to that moment of illumination, though, let me focus first on this new Third Way memo, because as usual, their message is fun to deconstruct. Third Way's entire mission in life is to argue that "the center" is all in American politics, that turning to "the left" is always a mistake, that moderates and independents rule. Virtually every memo they write and every poll they take starts and ends with that premise, and is carefully constructed to drive that point home. In this latest poll/memo, they look at what they call the droppers (the people who voted for Obama but didn't vote this time) and the switchers (the people who say they voted for Obama last time but voted Republican this time). They argue that the droppers are more than the base, and the switchers didn't just switch because of the economy but because they thought Democrats are too liberal.
I want to make a few specific points about the poll before getting to my underlying premise of this post:
Here is where I do agree with Third Way: the swing voters in the last two elections, the "switchers", tend to be middle and working class voters. They do instinctively worry about government being too big and about deficit spending in general. But as I noted in a post shortly after the election, these working and middle class swing voters are also strongly populist:
- Swing voters supported a message about challenging China on trade, ending subsidies to corporations that send jobs overseas, and stopping NAFTA-like trade deals over a message about increasing exports, passing more trade agreements, and getting government out of the way by 59-28
- Swing voters supported a message about ending tax cuts for those making over250,0000 a year, adding a bank tax to curb speculative trading, cutting wasteful military spending and ending subsidies to oil companies over a message about cutting 100 billion dollars from domestic programs, raising the Social Security retirement age, and turning Medicare into a voucher program by 51-37
- Swing voters supported a statement about politicians keeping their hands off Social Security and Medicare over a statement about raising the retirement age by 62-36
- 89% of swing voters supported a statement about full disclosure of campaign donations and limiting the power of lobbyists
- 90% of swing voters supported a statement about cracking down on outsourcing and creating jobs by fixing schools, sewers, and roads in disrepair
Even when framed in direct opposition to a statement about stopping increasing government spending and tax increases, swing voters said they were more worried that we will fail to make the investments we need to create jobs and strengthen the economy by 54-44
Which brings me to the solution all of you have been waiting: how can Obama and the Democrats regain the mystical center? How can the President accomplish that while avoiding a primary? How can he show strength when so many Democrats are worried about how strong he is? It really is quite easy: the mystical center is also where the disaffected base resides. Obama doesn't have to choose. Both swing voters and the Democratic base want the President to stand up to Wall Street on behalf of main street. They both want him to fight to create new jobs, especially manufacturing jobs. They both want him to say yes to middle class tax cuts and no to tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires. They want him to say no raising the retirement age and cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits.
I don't know what Third Way will say the center is when their next memo comes out, but I can say right now: the center has nothing to do with what Washington elites say it is. The center and progressives want exactly the same thing: for the president to focus on helping the middle class weather this economic storm. The answer to the President's political problems is really pretty simple: he just has to say no to the DC establishment, to the bank lobbyists and pundits yammering at him to just give in to the Republican demands. He has to stand tall for the middle class, and his political problems will resolve themselves.
There is, sir, no center to be found that can remain inhabited, anymore than one could pitch a tent along the Maginot line in WWI.
This doesn't mean that I think anything's going to change. We all know why the political landscape is the way it is, who calls the shots and why nothing of any lasting value ever seems to be accomplished. It just means that Obama will be defeated in 2012 if he continues to defer to corporations and Wall Street.
Today's conventional wisdom is pop psychology: Mr Obama enjoys compromising; the Democratic Congress is depressed over the elections.
But amateur psychology won't explain the Democrats' bizarre behavior. A sense of Realpolitik will. The Democrats in power are very likely in the pocket of the wealthy along with the Republicans
Consider: Daily Kos reports today: "Peter Orzag, who is President Obama’s former director of the Office of Management and Budget, is urging progressives to support Social Security cuts." Please re-read that sentence.
Another simple test case: the polls show a big majority for repealing Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. The wealthy want to keep them. Response from Dems in power? "Well, ... OK ..." The Democrats might have fought and lost -- they'd be up against real power. What is revealing is that they are not even putting up a fight. It's getting obvious that the Dems would rather stiff their base than offend Wall Street.
Before you and I begin our fight we need to have clear heads. The real fight for the next two years will be between two branches of the Republican party, the crazies (like Bush and Palin) and the moderate allies of big business (like Olympia Snowe and Barack Obama).
Our fight must be in the 2012 primaries.
Not only must we find a Progressive Standard Bearer and rally around him or her. We must elect progressives from every district. We need to run and we need to run to win. The only way to get the message out is to campaign everywhere.
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YES.
I would add "working class" to "middle class" as well, for many people have fallen out of the middle class in this economic climate.
The economic interests of "working class" voters are also now the economic interests of "middle class" voters.