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Mike Lux

Mike Lux

Posted: September 5, 2009 08:51 AM

The Simplest Thing


I really do admire President Obama for having the courage to make health care reform his top priority when he knew in advance how difficult it would be to pass. That took a lot of guts, and he should be congratulated for it. And I really do have genuine sympathy for White House staffers and Congressional leaders trying to work their way through the incredible complications on this issue to find the sweet spot for passing a bill. This is a massively complicated issue, with a new minefield around every bend. The fight over the public option has obscured all the rest of it, but health care reform is a monster of an issue: how do you make the subsidies for lower and middle class folks affordable without breaking the bank? How do you adjust Medicare rates and Medicaid formulas and provider reimbursements in a fair way? How do you re-structure financial incentives to encourage more primary care physicians without penalizing the specialists too much? How do you find a path through all the special interest roadblocks thrown in your way?

Questions like these, and a few hundred more, make the passage of any major health care bill as difficult as anything a President could ever take on -- it is just landmine after landmine. From what I can tell, the Obama team hasn't done a bad job of navigating their way through to a solution on many of those quiet but really important issues. Again, my congratulations.

In the end, though, health care reform will live or die on whether the White House, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid can figure out a way around the massive barrier in the middle of the road, the public option. Progressives are demanding it, conservative Democrats don't want to do it, Senate procedural rules make it complicated, so it's difficult to figure out what to do. And I fully understand the political imperative to get something passed.

Here's where I get confused, though. We have always known that passing any health care bill would be tough, but it has become increasingly clear as we get closer and closer to an end game that the easiest, simplest, least painful path is to actually go ahead and do what the President has proposed, which is to pass a bill with the public option.

Look at the facts that we are dealing with:

  • There is a very big and very solid core group of members in the House (way more than enough to block a bill from passing) who have pledged multiple times in writing to only vote for a bill with a public option.

  • That group in the House is backed up by an extremely determined activist core from the netroots, and increasingly intense organizations like the AFL-CIO, MoveOn.org, and Democracy for America.

  • A majority of House members are on the record in favor of the public option.

  • While there are procedural issues to be resolved in the Senate, many of the top experts on Senate rules are saying that the public option can be included in a reconciliation bill which only needs 51 votes. Such a bill could be combined with a second bill to deal with the less controversial issues that can't be included in reconciliation.

  • While some of the most conservative Senate Democrats want there to be a bipartisan bill, which would require no public option, there are not enough of them to stop a bill being passed on reconciliation. In fact, there are now 51 Senators on the record in favor of the public option.

Okay, stay with me now: ditching the public option would mean a massive, ugly civil war with House progressives, most of whom will be feeling very gun-shy about abandoning their written pledges to oppose any bill without the public option. Keeping the public option would require dealing with some unhappiness from some conservative Senators, and might require a procedural move or two that would be complicated.

Which approach sounds easier to get done?

But conventional wisdom insiders have been telling each other for a long time that there is no way to pass a public option, and that has made White House staffers and legislative leaders have a hard time seeing what is becoming the honest truth: passing a bill with the public option is not only possible, but the easiest way to a victory.

Maybe there is something I don't understand here -- it wouldn't be the first time. But as someone who passionately wants to help the White House pass a health reform bill, it seems pretty clear which way to go. I will admit it would not be simple or smooth, but that civil war scenario of dropping the public option would be a lot worse.

Let's get this train moving down the most direct path to victory.

I really do admire President Obama for having the courage to make health care reform his top priority when he knew in advance how difficult it would be to pass. That took a lot of guts, and he should ...
I really do admire President Obama for having the courage to make health care reform his top priority when he knew in advance how difficult it would be to pass. That took a lot of guts, and he should ...
 
 
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05:29 AM on 09/08/2009
Turning public plan into a public "option" IS the compromise.
12:38 PM on 09/07/2009
i have made it clear to both of my senators and all of my congressmsen that my support for their re-election will shadow their vote on the public option . If they do not vote for the public option i will support and vote for anyone that opposes them (yes even a republican) because if they dont vote for the people and against the robber barons of the insurance industry THEY MIGHT AS WELL BE REPUBLICANS. The Democratic Party may cry about giving power back to republicans but if the party will not supply strong primary challengers for those that sell us out they will supply strong opponents to republicans in those seats the next time they come to election and will recieve a message about campaigning on change but delivering the same old same old.. i am watching these votes like a Hawk(so to speak lol) , i wont just forget about it and will be very loud in my opposition
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dogdiva
10:03 AM on 09/06/2009
If Obama should come out for the public option, it had better be emphatic. If there is another one of these wishy washy proposals or "we want it but we can live without it", he's going to lose EVERYONE. The right is gone. They are GONE. Their only vote is to bring him down.

He needs to look and BE in charge. If he repeats himself...just louder, we all lose.
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
09:03 AM on 09/06/2009
"I really do admire President Obama for having the courage to make health care reform his top priority when he knew in advance how difficult it would be to pass."

Then you need to rethink your "admiration" as the cause is a mirage. Obama killed real health care reform before the debate began by attacking single payer. Instead he advocated a massive corporate welfare bill with extreme costs and low effect and no real change.
05:24 AM on 09/06/2009
Mike Lux, I like the way you think. You make a cogent argument, and I hope through your connections that the White House hears it.

.
04:22 AM on 09/06/2009
I think you have the "civil war" part correct (not literally, but politically).

I think that if the DLC continues to treat the progressives and liberals as expendable, they're going to find out just how hard it is to win elections when your only "allies" are Blue Dogs who have to appease their conservative constituents, and Republicans who wish you didn't exist.

That's why we progressives are playing this game of brinkmanship. We know how high the stakes are. We know what could be lost -- another chance at real reform in our lifetime -- and what could be gained, meaningful changes, not just in healthcare, but in the entire way government is run (is it for the benefit of the people, or for the benefit of Big Business?)

That's why we're willing to literally tear the party apart. Because, frankly, the issues at stake are more important than President Obama and his "legacy." They are more important than the Democratic Party. They are, at the core, whether or not the United States will still continue to be a functional democracy, or whether we will have officially just become subsidiaries of Blackwater, Wellpoint, and General Electric.

That's why we're drawing a line in the sand. If the President throws us under the bus on Wednesday, then things for the Democrats are going to start getting very ugly. You can't survive as a party when you abandon your base, and I'm very afraid that the Democrats are about to discover that.
10:21 AM on 09/06/2009
Fanned
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Awake-and-Sing
named after a great play written by Clifford Odets
06:25 PM on 09/06/2009
Fanned and faved.

The Obamaniacs will never allow this into their cult of personality, but there are more important things than President Obama's legacy or even re-election.

If he doesn't stand up and FIGHT, actively FIGHT, for the public health insurance option, then his Presidency isn't worth saving.

The Obamaniacs will cry "racism" or whatever they have to because they care more about the President's political career than the issues.

However, I care primarily about the people who cannot access the health care system. Without the public health insurance option to lower costs, people who cannot afford health insurance now are going to be mandated by law to buy overpriced, unreliable private insurance at extortion level rates, under penalty of taxation if they don't, with no increased health care dispensed, only more corporate welfare and bigger CEO bonuses.

If Obama cowers on the public option and proves himself a fraud, then the Democrats in the House MUST vote down the mandate.

The Obamaniacs need to hear this in the marrow of their bones. Barack Obama's legacy and polticial career is not as important as the welfare of people he said he was running to represent.

If Obama doesn't FIGHT for the public option, then his Presidency isn't worth saving. If the Democrats don't vote down a mandate without a public option, then the Democratic Party isn't worth saving either.
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wonketteRAWKS
Hypocrisy is prevalent in BOTH parties!
02:03 AM on 09/06/2009
As complicated as it is, and with the state of the economy also a major issue, why would Obama give an August deadline to begin with? He basically said, I want universal coverage for all (though not during the campaign) and then said go...no blueprint, no nothing. In the mean time he has a secret meeting with insurance lobbyists. If a deal was cut, and that deal included the elimination of single payer or public option, then a bill with either one of those will turn the insurance lobbyists against reform. Yet, true reform must be had with all branches of government being democrat. The stars are aligmed, so to speak. If not now for true reform, then when?
12:52 AM on 09/06/2009
Exactly. Pass with a strong public option, or let me off at the next station.
11:46 PM on 09/05/2009
The question can't be will there be a public option. the question is how to construct it so it is acceptable to republicans and democrats.

Let's not forget: We have a public option. It is medicare, medicaid, etc. So when this blogger, Lux, asks "how do you make subsidies to lower and middle class folks affordable?" he is asking a question which doesn't make much sense because the system is already paying for these folks' medical care through unacceptable means wh ich we are all familiar with: Medicaid, bankruptcy, ER, etc.

Where will we "find the money"? where are we finding it now?

All O has to do is drop his "competition" and "lower costs" argument and say here is a bipartisan bill. HSA's for republicans financed through the existing IRA, 401-k system which repubs say is the way to lower costs and a public option operating on a non competing basis in the public sector with the power to negotiate with pharmas, salary doctors, etc., in order to wring cost savings out of the system so those who can't afford private insurance can still get quality affordable care by paying some percentage of their income as premium.

This wins the argument. The argument becomes: Won't that create a two tier system of health care where the poor suffer while the rich enjoy privileged care? However that is an argument we can welcome.
12:17 AM on 09/06/2009
You can not have a non-competing program with the power to negotiate.

As for bipartisanship, Obama could let Republicans right the bill and they'd still vote against it. They want to sabotage Obama and regain the White House not pass healthcare reform

What are you going to do create two classes of citizenship, those who are allowed reasonably priced health insurance and those who must remain in bondage to insurers? Or what, if you have a decent job or make too much money we'll force you to subsidize some multi-billion dollar corporation by making you to pay more that you have to for health insurance?

And there's this little thing called the Constitution and Equal Protection, any public option must be available to the public. Any attempt to create official insurance serfs by denying people a choice (the only way to make a non-competing program) is totally unacceptable.

You're worried about paying for the uninsured? How about using the thirty percent of heath insurance premiums that go to marketing, administration and profits? The auto liability premiums for uninsured driver coverage? The home and renter premiums for liability coverage? -- In brief, use the waste, duplication and money siphoned off as profit to pay for the uninsured. -- Oh, and negotiate reasonable reimbursement, no two-hundred dollar aspirins.
01:40 AM on 09/06/2009
We already have two classes of citizenship; the top two percent than everyone else.
07:22 PM on 09/06/2009
I believe these are the costs he was talking about.

http://pnhp.org/blog/2009/07/20/bait-and-switch-how-the-%E2%80%9Cpublic-option%E2%80%9D-was-sold/

The first mistake was to think that a “public option” that merely took over a large chunk of the non-elderly market (as opposed to one that took over the entire market) could substantially reduce health care costs and thereby make universal coverage politically feasible.

Any proposal that leaves in place a multiple-payer system — even a multiple-payer system with a large government-run program in the middle of it — is going to save very little money….. First, any insurance program, public or private, that has to compete with other insurers is going to have overhead costs substantially higher than Medicare’s. (It is precisely because Medicare is a single-payer program that its overhead costs are low.) Second, the multiple-payer system Hacker would leave in place would continue to impose large overhead costs on providers.

It is no harder, and perhaps easier, to beat down the foes of health care reform with single-payer than with a watered down public option. The cost arguments are far stronger for single-payer anyhow, and that may sway a few “blue dog” types after appropriate debate in the media and education of the public on what single-payer really is.
10:42 PM on 09/05/2009
One reason conventional wisdom focuses on the Senate is that it is traditionally the hardest body through which to move legislation. Because of important procedural rules like the filibuster and equal representation for small states, we are protected from the "tyranny of the majority", and I think that protection has some value. But viewing the Senate as the only potential roadblock reflects a power grab by the upper chamber -- or rather the fact that it was originally established as a near-aristocratic body to maintain authority over the "mob". A majority in the lower house is equally necessary to pass any legislation, and Mike is quite right that declaring "civil war" on House progressives would have long-lasting effects on both this Congress and this administration. The CPC has done their political work well; they have enough members committed to vote down wimpy reform that it couldn't pass without Republicans writing their own bill (fat chance!) and building a coalition with conservadems -- and it's doubtful that such a bill would be more palatable to Obama than what would appease progressives. This could be a great development for constitutional advocates, an assertion of power by the House that accomplishes what the 17th Amendment didn't: check/balance the Senate just as the 3 major branches (should) do for each other.
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Kohimama
09:40 PM on 09/05/2009
The public option is already a compromise from what we really wanted which is universal coverage. Quit being so nice and push this through. The only time we get real change in this country is without the Repubs who by nature are petrified of change (unless it means tax cuts for the wealthy). Then later, much later, they embrace the issue they fought so hard to obstruct and say what a great country we have. No thanks to them. Let's see Biden channel a little LBJ and start the arm twisting.
11:50 PM on 09/05/2009
As I've said before, the public option is single-payer in slow motion. What's already been accomplished by making this so high-priority and highly visible publicly is that SOMETHING must be voted on.

Single-payer and the public option are unacceptable to insurers and pharma. But three-fourths of Americans want at least the public option. An up or down vote will clearly identify just who to target in reelections and freshmen, if we bounce incumbents, wanting more than a single term, will not commit hari kari to protect the healthcare industry.

Rock and hard place time for Congress. We may not get decent reform this time but we will get a hunting license. And even Republicans won't be secure if we don't irrationally rebound Republican in frustration but instead surgically target obstructionists, Dem or Repub.

Obama may not win us reform but he has won us the opportunity to get it, just perhaps not immediately and certainly not effortlessly.
09:00 PM on 09/05/2009
I agree. It is the public option. For those dems who represent the more conservative constituent base, the party strategists should decide who is most vulnerable and let them vote against the public option as long as there are enough votes for it to pass. They could always say, hey, we were against it, but it passed anyway. The other just need to vote for it and let the cards play out. All this debate is a little disheartening though. Remember all the "wrongs" perpetrated by the last admin? The "by choice" Irag war disaster, it would pay for itself, welcomed as heroes, WMD, I need not go on. No whining about deficits then. It is not deficits the right dislikes, it is somebody else's deficits. Bottom line is no matter what Obama does, none of it will ever be sanctioned by the Party of NO. Even if It is a smashing success. It doesn't matter. We are in a time when a fairly small contingent of crazies ignores facts to play to the radical fringe. i.e., stimulus isn't working, when vast majority of economists and experts agree it IS working. A supposedly Republican liking Wall Street has led the beginning of the turn-around with the markets up about 50% since mid March. That represents a lot of positive sentiment for a "far left, socialist administration". Or maybe it is not that radical and the Republican party has been hijacked by the lunatics?
08:40 PM on 09/05/2009
There actually isn't a majority in the senate who will vote for the public option. Another political website describes how health insurers bought the votes of nine senators.

The compromised Obama plan is a nationwide expansion of the system in Massachusetts. People in that state are finding that subsidies don't keep up with skyrocketing costs and they are being forced to buy insurance the can't afford or be punished by the government. Things will be even worse under Obamacare because most of the country is not as wealthy as Massachusetts, competition in health care is less, and the subsidies will be far less generous.

Obama wants low income Americans to go down in defeat so he doesn't have to. We can't let that happen.
09:02 PM on 09/05/2009
50 Senators plus Vice President Biden is 51.
07:06 PM on 09/05/2009
For some reason, the MSM was always talking abo t the difficulty of passing a plan with the public option, while ignoring the fact that the numbers made it virtually impossible to pass one without out it. Hmmm. Difficult vs, impossible? Which one seems like the most likely strategy for success?

If you're with the MSM, the impossible was somehow more likely than the difficult.

Odd, that. One would almost suspect they were carrying the water of corporatists.
06:54 PM on 09/05/2009
Insurance companies are evil blood-sucking murderous parasites. There will never be decent health care in America until these companies are closed down, their buildings razed to the ground and salt poured on the earth where they stood. Making a profit by preying on sick people and then denying them care is evil. Refusing to invest in cures while propagating lifelong (or short) expensive treatments is evil. Failing to create vaccines for tropical diseases, condemning millions to an unnecessary early death is a direct result of sickness for profit. Sick. Evil. Stupid.

Bound to continue.