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Miles Mogulescu

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The Solution to the Federal Debt: Expand Medicare, Don't Cut It

Posted: 07/15/11 09:12 PM ET

With the August 2 deadline for increasing the debt ceiling fast approaching, the beltway media is quick to praise the "courage" of politicians who propose cutting Medicare, whether it's Paul Ryan for proposing to turn Medicare into a voucher program, or President Obama for proposing more modest cuts like increasing the eligibility age from 65 to 67 or "means testing" benefits based on income. But there's nothing courageous about putting more of the burden of medical care onto the backs of seniors who have spent a lifetime paying Medicare taxes in order to guarantee their medical security when they get older.

If our leaders want to show real political courage when it comes to the federal debt, they should try this statement on for size:

"The government doesn't have a long-term debt crisis. It has a long-term health cost crisis. The solution isn't turning Medicare into a voucher program or cutting benefits. The solution is expanding Medicare to cover all Americans."

If America financed healthcare the way other rich capitalist countries do, there would be no federal deficit -- even without other spending cuts or tax increases -- and America could still afford to provide healthcare to all its citizens.

As the chart below shows, the CBO estimates that if American healthcare costs continue to grow at current rates (yellow Baseline), deficits as a percentage of GDP will soar to levels so high that no politically acceptable combination of budget cuts and tax increases will be able to control them.

2011-07-15-healthjpgsmall.jpg
Source: Center for Economic and Policy Research


But if America reduced its healthcare costs to the same percentage of GDP as Canada, France, Germany, Holland or the UK, deficits would disappear and would even turn into surpluses.
America's per capita healthcare costs are twice those of other developed countries. In 2008 America's per capita healthcare costs were $7538 compared to $4079 in Canada, $3698 in France, $3737 in Germany, $4063 in Holland and $3129 in the UK. Yet on average, citizens of those countries live two years longer than Americans.

Since the federal government pays approximately half of America's healthcare costs through Medicare, Medicaid, the VA, tax benefits, and other programs, America's supersized healthcare costs are the biggest drivers of long-term government debt.

What's the difference between America and the rest of the developed capitalist world when it comes to healthcare costs? Only America has a system driven by for-profit health insurance. Every other capitalist country has either a form of government-run single payer health insurance (in effect "Medicare for All") or a highly regulated utility.

Approximately 30% of every dollar spent in the US on private health insurance goes to administrative costs, marketing, executive salaries, and profits (as opposed to 2%-3% to administer Medicare) wasting hundreds of billions a year. Moreover, under a system of multiple payers, it's impossible to negotiate substantially lower costs from healthcare providers. In contrast, other advanced countries have a government-administered monopsony (the opposite of a monopoly under which there's one buyer and multiple sellers) so the government can negotiate cost savings, as well as ensure that providers focus their resources where they're needed (e.g on primary care instead of on more profitable specialties.) That's the biggest reason why other advanced countries spend half as much per capita on healthcare and get better results.

So there's nothing politically courageous about proposing to change Medicare from a system of guaranteed care for all elderly Americans to a voucher system in which 65-year-olds would initially have to contribute over $6,000 a year out-of-pocket to private health insurance companies in the first year of the program, as Paul Ryan and House Republicans are advocating. Republicare doesn't lower the per capita cost of American healthcare or extend healthcare to the uninsured -- It simply shifts the cost from the government onto the backs of America's oldest and most vulnerable citizens.

Though slightly less draconian, there's nothing politically courageous about the mainstream Democratic approach either. The Affordable Health Care Act -- "Obamacare" -- subsidizes the private insurance industry while offering little but pilot programs to lower costs. Obama's recent proposals to increase the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 or to "means test" Medicare -- which starts to transform Medicare from a social insurance program to a welfare program -- begins to dismantle Medicare as we know it brick-by-brick, rather than in one fell swoop like the Ryan plan.

Although none of these proposals may be enacted right away, the danger is that if medical inflation continues to escalate the cost of Medicare, Medicare will eat up more and more of the federal budget and a few years down the line, there may be little choice but to either significantly cut Medicare benefits or transform it into a voucher system. Reluctant as I am to admit it, I must give a certain amount of credit to Paul Ryan for telling the inconvenient truth that given the rising cost curve, in the long-term Medicare as we now know it may be not financially sustainable.

Republicans and conservatives have no problem making maximalist right-wing proposals -- like opposing even one penny in tax increases for the rich, proposing a balanced budget Constitutional amendment, or supporting Ryan's plan to turn Medicare into an underfunded voucher program -- even though they know that their proposals will not be enacted in the short-run. But by loudly trumpeting them, they move the political center to the right. Democrats like Obama respond by moving in a rightward direction, showing a willingness in principle to sharply curtail domestic social programs in return for relatively small tax increases in the form of closing loopholes, or proposing to start the process of reducing Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security with an initial series of relatively small cuts that opens the floodgates to bigger cuts.

To move the center back to the left, Democrats and progressives have to "go long," too. And "going long" doesn't mean advocating a "grand bargain" like that proposed by the chairmen of Obama's Deficit Commission which focuses on reducing the deficit instead of creating jobs, advocates 2/3 (or more) in spending cuts to 1/3 (or less) in revenue increases, and begins to cut the key social safety net programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

"Going long" for progressives and Democrats should mean making audacious proposals which shift power back from the wealthy to the middle class like meaningful increases in taxes for the wealthy and corporations, serious government-funded programs to create jobs, a more rapid end to the war in Afghanistan, which is draining the national treasury without making America safer, and major cuts to the American defense budget, which equals the defense budget of the rest of the world combined. These type of proposals might not pass this Congress, or even the next one. But they begin to redefine the nature of the political debate and move at back to the left from its dramatic rightward shift in recent years.

When it comes to health care, "going long" means being truthful with the American people and telling them that to protect Medicare in the long-term while controlling the federal debt, America will have to join the rest of the civilized world and enact Medicare For All.

 
 
 
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JDM73
male, 38, writer/draughtsman/ex-musician
05:51 PM on 07/17/2011
Well, we can count on cuts to Medicare and Social Security--they're coming as surely as sunrise will come tomorrow morning. And we can count on Obama's staunch, unquestioning supporters defending those cuts. (One wonders if they really are as blindly loyal as they appear to be, or if they receive some type of remuneration for their shrill, grating defense of the president's bad policies.)
But there's one more thing which can be depended upon: people like me will vote third party next year, because there's no way we're going to stand with a president who doesn't fight for Social Security and Medicare. Period.
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Michael Deangelo
12:46 PM on 07/17/2011
Miles is it? a Entertainment attorney, writer, and political activist giving "advice"? Yes, You are indeed entertaining - ...If Medicare is Broke or Broken with 16 Million American's on it your solution is to put 320 Million on it...Yeah, Got it...and speak of "unfunded"...Tell me, Where did the "start up" Money come from for OABMACARE? Also, you can not compare Europe with here two completely different creatures..Stay funny tho, it is as you say "Entertainment" Lawyer...However, I'll keep the door open for some serious conversation.
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
04:50 PM on 07/17/2011
What's entertaining for me is to see someone defending a system that would willing let you die if an insurance company gets to make an extra dollar. Funny but the jokes on you. HA HA HA lets all have a laugh at the funny guy who's dying so that somebody else gets to live really well. Let's let that guy's wife and children go on welfare so long as the insurance company makes a lot of money.
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Michael Deangelo
05:36 PM on 07/17/2011
ANd this is in response to your other post about how those "stories" never show up...Its from a Canadian news paper - Now what, they're lying to? Here's the quote with link at the bottom: "A typical Canadian seeking surgical or other therapeutic treatment had to wait 18.3 weeks in 2007, an all-time high, according to new research published Monday by independent research organization the Fraser Institute.

"Despite government promises and the billions of dollars funnelled into the Canadian health-care system, the average patient waited more than 18 weeks in 2007 between seeing their family doctor and receiving the surgery or treatment they required," said Nadeem Esmail, director of Health System Performance Studies at the Fraser Institute and co-author of the 17th annual edition of Waiting Your Turn: Hospital Waiting Lists in Canada. http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2007/10/15/waittimes-fraser.html
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Miles Mogulescu
10:07 PM on 07/17/2011
According to a poll by the Toronto Globe and Mail and the CTV Network, 91% of Canadians prefer their government run health insurance system to the US private system.The same poll showed that 45% of Americans prefer the Canadian system and 42% prefer to stick with what we've got, and that's without either American party having campaigned in the US for a Canadian style system.
By the way, I have good (and very expensive) PPO insurance and had to wait 3 months for elective surgery, a little better than Canada but not that much better. Of course if I didn't have health insurance--and didn't qualify for Medicare or Medicaid--I would have had to wait forever (or at least until I turned 65 and could get Medicare).
04:14 AM on 07/18/2011
Aloha Miles,
I have an interesting story, i am a dual citizen (U.S. & Canada) My (ex)wife and my son both had cancer nearly concurrently, my wife in the US and my son in Canada, both were urgent!! My son in Canada had surgery the next day , my wife had to wait nearly 3 weeks and travel 200 miles. Both got excellent care but my wife's cost over $300,000.00 in the US and my son's cost nothing, the bill collectors to this day haunt me for her care . The crap that is being fed to the American people about single payer health care by the corporate toady's makes for a waste of american lives.
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NWBrunette
Blessed Girl
11:45 AM on 07/17/2011
Spot on Miles. Thank you. The first order of business is to get private for-profit insurance out of the health care system. All they do is suck money out if and provide no benefit whatsoever (other than to their massively overpaid executives). Medicare for All is absolutely what's needed.
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Radicalreader
09:30 AM on 07/17/2011
I live in a state that borders Canada so I meet a lot of Canadians on vacation. The all tell me they love their healthcare system even with some of the problems. Problems that are actually inherent in all systems of healthcare delivery. Everyone is covered. Sometimes our freedom is not so free.
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Michael Deangelo
12:53 PM on 07/17/2011
Our Freedom is not so "free"? Tell me, what does that Freedom look like when a Government tries to put mandates on people? You do mean "that sort of" Free, correct...? If you think your the only one that meets Canadians, sorry pal, I meet them too..In fact I have many different stories to tell you and one in particular about a Canadian with eye infection,...that if it wasn't for the US Healthcare system, he would be blind today because of the waiting list he was put on in Canada...With his OWN Money he flew to AZ and the operation was done three days later, not the six months he was to wait in Canada...
iridium53
Semper Fi
04:55 PM on 07/17/2011
Seems to me that he was FREE to do that.

Being free doesn't mean that you get everything you want when you want it.
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
05:00 PM on 07/17/2011
Funny how those stories show up here but never seem to be documented anywhere else. What happens is that the facts when they are brought out are that the guy could have waited a year but didn't want to, or it was really lasier surgery so that he wouldn't have to wear glasses anymore. If you can document your story please do.
08:10 AM on 07/17/2011
It looks like our leaders are hellbent on undercutting other countries. They have a problem though. They can't give up their profits.

It is a lifelong dream of the Bush/Boehner republican leaders to destroy Social Security and Medicare.

They are going to do that by bankrupting Medicare with too high medical costs and changing the way the cost of living is figured on Social Security. They keep raising premiums even on private insurance. They may want to bankrupt the younger workers, too.
08:00 AM on 07/17/2011
http://seekingalpha.com/article/146992-comparing-u-s-healthcare-spending-with-other-oecd-countries

Today, we are spending over $2 trillion a year on health care — almost 50 percent more per person than the next most costly nation. And yet, as I think many of you are aware, for all of this spending, more of our citizens are uninsured, the quality of our care is often lower, and we aren’t any healthier. In fact, citizens in some countries that spend substantially less than we do are actually living longer than we do.
Make no mistake: The cost of our health care is a threat to our economy. It’s an escalating burden on our families and businesses. It’s a ticking time bomb for the federal budget. And it is unsustainable for the United States of America.
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Michael Deangelo
12:57 PM on 07/17/2011
And so, the solution is another 2 Trillion with Obamacare! (ha-ha!) Yeah, we see how the Government works with 16 Million on it, I just can't wait for them to put 310 Million on it...I'll be watching for you comments if that ever comes about...I'm sure, they'll be as entertaining.
07:44 AM on 07/17/2011
Our medical costs are higher, because America substantially funds medical advances for the world. It is one of our most far-reaching (albeit tacit) investments in third world countries.
08:02 AM on 07/17/2011
A lot of the medical advances are made by our universities, then given to the health care field.
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Michael Deangelo
12:58 PM on 07/17/2011
That's what they tell you..You need to really see the waste...under the guise of "medical field"
07:40 AM on 07/17/2011
If expanding coverage is the solution, let's insure the entire world, and while we are at it, let's include veterinary expenses too! Let's have a BIG solution.
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pickles n pops
Restore pre-1981 income and inheritance tax rates
04:38 AM on 07/17/2011
No means test Mr. Obama. Why can't the Medicare tax rate simply be raised to 2.45 pct? The quality of service seniors have a right to expect need not be impaired. Way to go Nancy! Dump Obama in 2012.
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Michael Deangelo
12:59 PM on 07/17/2011
Anyone who says "Dump Obama" has my vote..
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aacme
My micro-bio is on a strict need-to-know basis.
10:58 PM on 07/16/2011
No one, except of course those American people not brainwashed by Fox, wants real answers. Not Republicans, Not Democrats, certainly not the health insurance "industry".
The problem, of course, is that the problem is so large (read the profits being made are so huge), that the "industry" can pay off everyone charged with fixing the problem, and propagandize the rest. This is the same problem we have with many other crises facing us, notably global warming, even the record low taxes for the rich. The system has been distorted (this was called the Republican Revolution) so that money is the only thing that counts, and anything that threatens moneyed interests is stopped in it's tracks.
It appears that the only way this will change is by the eventual collapse of a system so driven by greed that it cannot even protect itself from its own excess.
Or, maybe, a popular uprising.
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noaxe397
02:57 PM on 07/16/2011
Well stated. The term "shared sacrifice" is becoming Obama Democrat Luntz-speak for cutting further the working person's safety net that HE or SHE pays for. The other big lie (and I realize it was not the point of your article) is that Social Security adds to the debt. By current law the Social Security trustess cannot borrow from the federal government. Since legally, economically and politcally NO money can flow from general revenues to the trust, it is impossible for SS to contribute to the defecit. Why is is conservatives can make so much progress moving everyone to the right by saying the exact opposite of reality?Maybe it's the complicitness of Clinton-like DLCers and Obama Democrats and their end game of compromise for compromise's sake.
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pickles n pops
Restore pre-1981 income and inheritance tax rates
05:38 AM on 07/17/2011
Yep. Remember this gem of an interview from one of the spear carriers on Obama's "Debt Commission"? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_rwBT_UkPE
07:41 AM on 07/17/2011
The link takes us to 'Herbie Hancock The Peacocks'.
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pickles n pops
Restore pre-1981 income and inheritance tax rates
12:04 PM on 07/17/2011
Here's the correct link for the interview http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grA1EsYJ3-k
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jadeba
12:33 PM on 07/16/2011
Thank you! I believe this is a moral issue and should be argued from that perspective. It is simply immoral to profit off the the health, perhaps the life or death of another human being. Ins. used to work, when it operated at near non profit levels but we abandoned the moral part of the argument. It is now acceptable to deny critical services for what, for money.

Let me in to Medicare - this makes sense from another perspective. I will most likely utilize Medicare so give me the choice of paying in now, before I need services, instead of paying private insurance (bad private ins). I'd happily do that.
12:27 PM on 07/16/2011
The solution to the skyrocketing medical costs is this: BREAK THE MONOPOLY OF THE AMA -- THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION. How? Increase the supply of medical doctors, pharmacists, nurses and medical technologists. How? (1) Create more schools; (2) Reduce the number of years for MD from 8 years to 6 years as the rest of the world does; And create a higher tiers of MD for some egg heads who wish to learn more; (3) Get rid of that Doctor of Pharmacy degree minimum requirement to practice pharmacy by going back to the old system of B. Pharm and Pharm. D. Why in hell do you need to get all that education if you are just filling orders in a Wal-mart Drug store?
In short, you can only get the costs down if we see Doctors, Pharmacists and Nurses on the street looking for work like the other professionals.. Break the AMA monopoly to bring costs down. That is the ONLY way. Quality? Please, please...don't be fooled by the AMA propaganda. Let the experience of little CUBA speak for itself in that light.
07:43 AM on 07/17/2011
In our area, it isn't the physicians who are over charging, but the prescription cost of patented drugs. But they all charge too much.
iridium53
Semper Fi
11:37 AM on 07/16/2011
More complete information:

http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/debt-2011-06.pdf

pages 7 & 8
iridium53
Semper Fi
11:29 AM on 07/16/2011
Great article. Great idea.