It's As Good As Over! (updated)

Posted May 6, 2008 | 09:02 PM (EST)



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Absent a sudden revelation that Barack Obama is the illegitimate child of Fidel Castro, brainwashed in Cuba and sent to Hawaii to grow up to be President of the United States and stage a communist coup, it's now all but certain that Barack Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee.

It's now 2 hours and 15 minutes since the Indiana polls closed and 1 hour and 45 minutes since the North Carolina polls closed. Both CNN and MSNBC called North Carolina for Barack as soon as the polls closed, meaning exit polls showed a large lead, probably better than 10 points. Although Hillary is ahead in the smaller state of Indiana, the fact that the networks have still not called the state indicates that the margin is closer than in North Carolina.
UPDATE: WITH 99% OF THE PRECINCTS REPORTING, BARACK HAS WON NORTH CAROLINA BY 232,757 VOTE,S A 14% MARGIN. IN INDIANA, HILLARY SQUEAKED OUT A 22,382 VOTE WIN, LESS THAN A 2% MARGIN. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING HIS DELEGATE LEAD, BARACK INCREASED HIS POPULAR VOTE LEAD BY OVER 200,000. HILLARY CLINTON HAS CANCELLED ALL OF HER MORNING TV AND PRESS APPEARANCES.

It's now clear that Barack will end the evening increasing his popular vote lead and delegate lead over Hillary. It is mathematically all but certain that no matter what happens in the handful of remaining contests, Barack will end up in the first week in June having won the most elected delegates, the most votes and the most states. Absent an extraordinary scandal, it is now all but inconceivable that the superdelegates would then take the nomination away from Barack and hand it to Hillary. It is equally unlikely that the Democratic Party would exercise the so-called "nuclear" option and apportion delegates to Florida and Michigan in a way that would change the outcome.

Hillary's only remaining argument to the superdelegates is a coded appeal to race -- Obama is unelectable because he can't win the votes of enough white people. The truth, however, is that Bill Clinton won the White House with only about 40% of the white vote nationally, Obama has won tens of millions of white votes in the course of the primaries and caucuses, and just because a white voter chose Hillary over Obama in the primaries, it doesn't mean that voter won't choose Obama over McCain in the general election. Obama may have work to do in improving his percentage of white working class voters. But the Democratic Party is not about to take the nomination away from the black guy who won the majority of the delegate vote and the popular vote to give it to the white woman. That would destroy the Democratic Party for a generation.

It may still take until the beginning of June for Barack's to officially earn the 2025 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Between now and then, we can expect superdelegates to commit to Barack in increasing numbers.

But the task now is for the Democratic party to unite around its presumptive nominee -- Barack Obama -- and get ready to take on McSame in the fall.

Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Indiana and North Carolina primary results


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"The truth, however, is that Bill Clinton won the White House with only about 40% of the white vote nationally, Obama has won tens of millions of white votes in the course of the primaries and caucuses, and just because a white voter chose Hillary over Obama in the primaries, it doesn't mean that voter won't choose Obama over McCain in the general election."

I'm not sure why but whenever I see someone bring up statistics about Bill Clinton's election to President they neglect to mention Ross Perot. If it wasn't for Perot taking close to 30% of the popular vote than we would have likely had a second term of Bush 1. How can the DNC get people to rally behind a candidate? The republicans are going to get dirty and petty - I hate to say it but the high road won't win the presidency. The Obama campaign might need to bring on some of Hillary's smear team.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:47 AM on 05/07/2008

Its true that Perot was a factor in 1992 but Bill Clinton only increased his percentage of white voters to 43% in 1996 when Perot was less of a factor. In 2000, Al Gore won a majority of the popular vote with only 36% of the white male vote. Yes, Barack Obama will increase his chances of a transformative victory in the fall by finding ways to better appeal to white voters, particularly white working class voters, the so-called Reagan Democrats, who have been hurt so much by Republican economics the past 8 years. The point, however, is that despite his race, Obama doesn't start out the campaign that much worse off among this group than Bill Clinton or Al Gore.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:39 AM on 05/07/2008

in an incredible turn of events, barack hussein lost the state he declared a tiebreaker. after an historically weak candidacy among whites and latinos, hussein followed up with an embarrassing loss in a state he swore he would win. b. hussein: 'indiana is the tiebreaker'. for the good of the party, after your self-declared tiebreaker loss, its time to quit obama.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:20 AM on 05/07/2008

Ok, "hopelessobama", that's 3 bigoted comments from you in a row. I don't believe in censorship but please take your hate elsewhere.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:12 AM on 05/07/2008

It just hurts so bad, doesn't it?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:45 AM on 05/07/2008

obama loses indiana tiebreaker!!! and he is headed for huge landslide loss in west virginia!!!!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:18 AM on 05/07/2008

sorry folks, barry hussein lost his own self-declared tiebreaker in indiana. by his own words, he is the loser of the nomination. unless he is a lying typical politician, he will withdraw ASAP. only selfish greed would permit him to continue after losing his own tiebreaker.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:17 AM on 05/07/2008

It's not over until January 20, 2009

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:48 AM on 05/07/2008

Right now its one point difference and Obama could win it. Thsi signals the end of her campaign. It's time for all the Obama supporters to make a gracious exit for the Clinton supporters.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:42 AM on 05/07/2008

Can we at least laugh at them behind their backs?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:51 AM on 05/07/2008

Yes you may, but please don't. Many Hillary supporters passionately believed in her cause and will grieve that 2008 won't be the year for the first female President. (That day will come.) Barack needs their support. Let's give them the respect they are due, and welcome them into the campaign to defeat John McCain in the fall.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:09 AM on 05/07/2008

What a gracious thing to say. I am an Obama supporter and this is not the first time I've seen his supporters reach out to Hillary's supporters. I will admit I also haven't seen the favor returned.
Nevertheless, I join the ranks of Obama supporters in reaching out to fellow Democrats.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:02 PM on 05/07/2008

Indiana hasn't been called, but the game is over now for Hillary. She's not going to win that state by more than a couple points and she was trounced in North Carolina. Her spinners can argue all they want about the demographics (and they would have some valid points to make), but it's time now for the arguments and namecalling to end and for the Party to start a healing process. Obama can no more win in November without her supporters than could Hillary have won without his.

Senator Clinton should be given a few days to absorb this reality, but she should be brought to a point where she can pull out before next week's Primary. She should be treated with dignity. Her passionate followers should be accorded the same respect.

I've been around Democratic Presidential politics for a long time and this is the worst I've seen things since 1968, in terms of divisions and raw feelings. Personally, I've been ambivalent. I voted for Obama in our Primary, but I've grown concerned in recent weeks about his ability to form a winning coalition. But, that's in the past now. We all have to step back and remember that we have a bigger mission in November.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:06 PM on 05/06/2008

I couldn't agree more, Miles.

The Clinton camp foolishly decided to pursue shameless attacks on Obama about his association with a myriad of black political figures, who in essence, have absolutely no effect on Obama's campaign, message or ideologies, and their plan backfired tonight.

They claimed that Obama couldn't win the "big" states, with all those white voters, but tonight, he proved them wrong in NC. How could've he come so far along, received so many contributions and so many votes WITHOUT the white vote? I don't think the working-class could ever afford to contribute $1000 to his campaign..instead, he's accumulated small donations from them- $20, $30, $50- and that demonstrates that he has the ability to attract voters from all demographics and socio-economic backgrounds.

Indiana has been incredibly close, and he's gone from 10 points back, to 4 points behind. That may not be a statistical win, but that's sure darn close, especially coming from a state whose majority of voters is white.

Overall, Obama has regained his momentum and is back on track to spread his message, his policies and claim the White House.

OBAMA '08

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:56 PM on 05/06/2008

Sounds good to me. I am fired up and ready to go! It is time to turn our attention on that old babbling idiot.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:53 PM on 05/06/2008

Sounds nice, but someone needs to deprogram bitter Clinton supporters. They act like Obama threatened her life or called her names the whole primary. Anything that reflects negatively on her, Obama had to be behind it. These people are gonna need therapy.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:40 PM on 05/06/2008

Obama should work with Clinton to find a mutually agreeable VP. NOTE - not a dream ticket, but something that works for them both. Something where they can get Bill Clinton out working on his behalf. For all the weird things he has said, to think that his stumping cannot help Obama in places where he is not doing so hot -- that is just silly.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:53 AM on 05/07/2008

I am afraid you don't understand politics. The Clintons have nothing to trade at this point. They are broke, their campaign is at its end. They won't have any more favors to call in because the people who owe them will lose more than they have to gain from helping them.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:49 AM on 05/07/2008

We're all "gonna need therapy" my friend if we fail to put the acrimony behind us and lose in the Fall.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:17 PM on 05/06/2008

It looks like HOPE got renewed tonite!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:09 PM on 05/06/2008

A not-to-be-sneezed-at portion of the dowry an Obama campaign will bring to Democrats on other parts of the ticket is his 3 out of 4 share of first time voters, a group amounting to nearly a fifth of the turnout this time around.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:43 PM on 05/06/2008

That sounds good to me. Let's hope the majority of remaining uncommitted superdelegates see it the same way...

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:16 PM on 05/06/2008

doesn't need to be a majority, about 80 would do it...

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:54 PM on 05/06/2008
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