McCain Campaign's Old White People Strategy

It may appear as though the McCain/Palin campaign is erratically lurching from tactic to tactic on an almost daily basis and, in many ways, it is. But the various McCain/Palin campaign tactics do tie together in a pattern that reflects a level of Republican strategic thinking which would be a mistake for Obama-supporters to dismiss out of hand. There are many reasons for Democrats to be feeling pretty good. But as tempting as it may be, it's way to early to become complacent or start popping the Champagne corks.

"Palling around with terrorists", Joe The Plumber as white working class everyman, claims that increasing taxes is an opening gambit to taking money from the middle class and using it for "welfare" (shades of Reagan's "welfare queens"), accusations of "socialism", fear of a foreign enemy testing an inexperienced Commander-In-Chief. These seemingly disparate scare tactics may not be aimed at winning over the broad national electorate as a whole. Instead, they are aimed at holding onto a big enough slice of mostly older, mostly non-college educated, mostly working class and lower middle class, white people, particularly in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida which have large numbers of these types of voters.

Many of these voters are independents or so-called "Reagan Democrats" who have voted Republican in large numbers in recent Presidential elections and are beginning to tilt more Democratic in light of eight years of George Bush's Presidency and the economic crisis. The McCain strategy is to roll out the same old Republican scare tactics one more time in the hope that they may have just enough life in them for one more Republican Presidential candidate to just barely squeak through. At the same time, the strategy is aimed at rallying an otherwise demoralized Republican base to turn out on Election Day in large numbers to stop the scary, terrorist-coddling, tax-raising, socialist-leaning, black guy from reaching the White House.

The stategy of the McCain campaign is that in key swing states, there is enough of a "Bradley effect" that the election is 3%-5% closer than the polls indicate, that their scare tactics can convince another 3%-5% of white voters not to vote for Obama, that they can yet again suppress Democratic turnout in key precincts, and that they can drive the Republican base to the polls in numbers rivaling their turnout for George Bush in 2004. This might, in the view of the McCain/Palin campaign, enable the Republicans to just hold onto the States that Bush won (except perhaps Iowa and New Mexico). If they can then turnaround one large Kerry state like Pennsylvania, McCain's advisors hope they just might squeak through to an Electoral College victory.

So Democrats assume at their peril that the McCain/Palin campaign has no strategy. The chances of this strategy working one more time this year may be small in light of the historical moment, the economic crisis, and the brilliance of Barack Obama and the remarkable campaign which he has run. Still, this cynical Republican strategy has worked many times before. Democrats must not let up for a minute between now and Election Day. They must keep giving money, making phone calls, canvassing their neighbors, calling their grandparents, traveling to swing states, and most of all, be sure that every last Obama supporter shows up at the polls on November 4th.

Comments

[krm1255]

I'm middle-aged, white, Republican and I already voted for Obama.

No McCain.

[Semper]

Its seems that the Democrats are afraid of the bogey man. Where did all these analyst come from. We are been living with racism for a very long time. And if Obama is elected we will continue to live in a racist, sexist land. Change in America is going to take very long time. So get over it.

[TooLooze]

Well said.

If the republican tactic of using racist overtones doesn't work this time, America may owe some gratitude to Cliff Huxtable, aka Bill Cosby for showing Americans that race is just a skin pigment and nothing more. The Huxtables may have been the first black family that was fully accepted as a "family" rather than a "black family". Hopefully, our nation is ready to embrace the right candidate rather than the right "black" candidate.

[Bitsko]

When did McCain stop suspending his campaign? I missed that memo.

[GayGrandpa]

wHo yOu callin' Ode and white Mister?!!! I am white and full of Obama hope! Go O, go go GO!

[LRonHubbard]

Camp McCain does have a strategy and it's a guaranteed loser. They should have considered that the Democrats were certain to offer the country either Clinton or Obama. Either option qualifies as the end of civilization in the eyes of a hard-core conservative. So, with the Democrats herding the Republican base for free, McCain's strategy should have been to win the middle. If you don't win the middle, you don't win.

Instead they ran on McCain the maverick/war hero and courted the conservative base. Then, in a final, fantastic act of bad judgment, they added Palin: goodbye political center.

To have any chance of turning this around, McCain's people would have to go back to last December and start all over. The race is lost as it's run; no photo-finish this year.

[JannielB]

You don't need to be insulting, or insinuate that being old and white is the same as being stupid and out-of-touch.
Learn to be more sensitive to the people to whom you are talking.
Signed
An Old White Woman

[roshni]

Don't assume old means stupid, especially when it comes to women.
I know a lot of elderly women who identify with what Obama is trying to do.

[Boadicea]

Well said, and timely.

[RockBluffDem]

My 91 year old mother-in-law who is from Ohio, wealthy, racist and has despised Democrats her entire life did something quite historic for her and for her country; she voted for Obama!

Her reasoning: her stock portfolio, Sarah Palin and McCaine's 90% voting record with Bush.

Bless her heart.

[LisaLisa1234]

Bless her sweet, smart heart!!!

[MJJBunny]

I'm old, white, Jewish and live in Florida and have already voted for Barack. Yes, I've received smear flyers about him, but I've done my homework. I don't believe that thinking people will allow the smears to affect the outcome. Sure there are those who would never vote for Barack, but many people believe given the choice, he is the only right candidate for our country.

[swfsenior]

Why I left PA many many years ago. Small towns, small minds. I see progress every time I go to visit family so that's a good sign. Some of the older family don't vote or if they do it's always along part lines. Most of the younger ones are Dems. Anyone undecided is usually willing to listen to both sides. Explains why the old tactics are not working totally in the state. The population is progressing beyond the former Dem/Rep no grey area.

[roshni]

I live in PA and love my state in spite of the problems you describe. Of course, I live in Eastern PA and if the racist west screws things up, I might want Philly to secede from Pittsburgh!

[CrackerJacker]

Bingo. That is the most astute assessment of the GOP ticket I've seen this season. Sir, I am now a fan.

[brooklynite77]

The reason Republicans keep winning (though I don't believe they will in this particular election) is because they can put themselves in the shoes of Democrats, whereas Democrats think Republicans are stupid. Non-educated working class whites aren't stupid, which is why McCain's campaign isn't working - and if Democrats are losing the uneducated working class white votes it's because of attitudes like this.

[roshni]

I think it's the economy driving everything at this point, so people just don't have the luxury of being racist/ignorant.

[jfcovi2008]

The 2008 US Presidential election will be known as the Lipstick Election ©
Indeed, 2 women have decided the election outcome.

First, Hillary Clinton

The General Election started as Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in a hard-fought primary season. The Clinton campaign featured the same flaws as Mc Cain"s: A lack of steady and clear message changes of management, and a bunch of blunders¦. But in the end in Denver, Hillary showed in her Convention speech that Hillary Clinton was a strong nominee that her messy campaign had been hiding during the primaries¦

And then¦ Sarah Palin
The Election ended, as it suddenly appeared clear that John Mc Cain"s running mate, Sarah Palin, was not to be trusted as very potential Commander-in-chief. In a bid to capture Clinton's voters, McCain had finally made his ticket look risky and enhanced the solidity of Obama-Biden association. The surprising result of this is that a pick that had appeared first as mavericky ended up as mave-risky.
What was he thinking when he picked Palin rather than Ridge or Romney? Did he think that Palin would not give interviews? Mc Cain is a dose of overconfidence on who he is, A mix of entitlement to the Presidency, a campaign based on seniority and a notion that being Mc Cain, allows everything. Well, the lesson to be learned is that: if you put a 150,000 dollars lipstick on a hockey-mom, it's still a hockey-mom.

[Papasgirl]

I hate to admit it, but there are still some Hillary supporters who are undecided. I met a young Spanish man the other day who came into BO headquarters to make a delivery and when I asked who he was voting for, he said he didn;t know as he was a Hillary supporter. I really had to work on him to make him understand that she was no longer an option and that voting McPalin would not be in his or his childrens best interest. My fear is not that they will vote McPalin, but that they won't go to the polls at all. They are our sides low information voter. Pretty much stuck in what they know and unable or unwilling to look beyond.