Obama Likely to Defeat McCain. McCain Likely to Defeat Clinton.

Picture this: It's January 20, 2009 and John McCain is being sworn in as president, promising in his inaugural address to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and keep American troops in Iraq for 100 years. If you're a Democratic voter on Super Tuesday, you must vote for the candidate who makes this scenario least likely. That candidate is clearly Barack Obama.

Sunday's Washington Post/ABC poll shows Obama defeating McCain 49%-46% while McCain beats Clinton 49%-46%. Sunday's Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll shows Obama defeating McCain 45%-43% and McCain defeating Clinton 45%-41%. Both polls give Obama a 6 point advantage over Clinton in a match-up with McCain.

These most recent polls are consistent with numerous polls taken over the past year, most, but not all, of which show McCain defeating Clinton. A January 10-12 Financial Dynamics poll shows McCain defeating Clinton 48%-45% and Obama defeating McCain 43%-42%. A December 12-14 Zogby Poll shows McCain defeating Clinton 49%-42% and Obama defeating McCain 47%-43%, a 10 point advantage for Obama over Clinton.

If you're not a big believer in polls, let's look at some more practical factors. John McCain is unpopular and distrusted by a substantial portion of the conservative Republican base. Rightly or wrongly, that base hates Hillary Clinton with a passion. The only thing that can unite the Republican party around John McCain and guarantee a massive Republican turnout is the desire to keep Hillary Clinton out of the White House. Barack Obama does not generate the same kind of negative passions among Republicans -- many of them who do not much like McCain would likely stay home in November if Obama is the Democratic candidate, and some would even vote for Obama.

Moreover, neither the Democrats nor Republicans have a majority of registered voters. To win the presidency, a candidate must garner a large number of independents. Both Barack Obama and John McCain have shown a far better ability to attract independents than has Hillary Clinton. In a Clinton/McCain match-up, McCain is likely to pick-up the majority of independents. Obama has the ability to attract large numbers of independents, and even some disaffected Republicans.

Frank Luntz, one of the top Republican strategists and the author of the Contract With America, said on Bill Maher Friday night that he does not know how to come up with a Republican strategy to defeat Barack Obama.

Finally, a completely anecdotal piece of evidence: My brother-in-law, a lifetime Massachusetts Democrat, told me on the phone Sunday that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, he will vote for John McCain. I promised him that if Hillary is nominated, we'll be having another discussion on the subject before November and I hoped, in that event, I would be able to change his mind. Still, I don't think my brother-in-law is unique in his thinking.

So, as you ponder your vote on Super Tuesday, even if you truly believe that Hillary Clinton would make a somewhat better president than Barack Obama, it's still vital that you vote for Obama to guarantee that the next president will not be John McCain.

Comments

[shaggles]

It's a statistical dead heat. No one is "clearly" the candidate to beat any other candidate.

[BillZBubb]

These election "analyses" based on the polls of today are absurd. If you want someone elected base your argument on facts, not flawed, superficialities. For example:

First, every negative about Hillary Clinton that is going to be known in November, is known today. Second, Obama is an unknown nationally--by November the right wing swiftliars will have demonized him into a scary, liberal, muslim sympathizer. The poll numbers will change a lot by November.

And you can bet the house that the Republicans will use unofficial groups to make sure everyone knows Obama is a black man--and they'll do it in the most dispicable ways (see Harold Ford).

The other significant problem that people looking at today's polls forget is the "black candidate effect". They ALWAYS poll 5-6% higher than they get in the election. Why? Because there are still a huge number of racists in this country. I don't expect that to change for Obama.

Finally, you totally disregard the economy. That is the key issue for the vast majority of voters. What can Obama (or McCain) really say about their economic plans? Not much really. Hillary Clinton can say with some basis that she will return to the fiscal policies of Bill Clinton. Her winning argument would be "Do you want to continue on the same failed Republican economic path that McCain offers for four more years, or do you want a return to the prosperity of the 1990's?"

[EinChicago]

The easiest way for the GOP to beat Obama is simply for the Dems to choose him as their nominee. He is unelecatble in more than enough states to guarantee a McCain win (look at FL and SC where 80% of non african american voters rejected him).

[Doofus]

'So, as you ponder your vote on Super Tuesday, even if you truly believe that Hillary Clinton would make a somewhat better president than Barack Obama, it's still vital that you vote for Obama to guarantee that the next president will not be John McCain.'

Conversely, if you truly believe that Barack Obama would make a somewhat better president than Hillary Clinton, it's also vital that you vote for Clinton to guarantee that the next president will not be John McCain.

The point is, of course, whatever Demo you thought you were going to vote for, pick the other one, so as to confuse the Repos into believing that Demos don't actually know *what* they're doing.

[ObamaEdwards]

I have been saying this for WEEKS, w/out the polling numbers.

Obama 2008!

[thefringecenter]

McCain was a prisoner of war. I know this because he announced it again today. If he hadn't been captured he would be carrying mail today. But since being captured seems to be the flavor of the day, I will vote McCain and support an amendment which would require future Presidents to be former POWs. Ever notice that every McCain sentence contains a noun, a verb and POW. My apologies to Joe Biden for the plagiarism.

[editrix66]

I am a Democrat and am for Obama, and I will vote for Hillary if she is elected as the DNC candidate, but John McCain has always had the reputation for being fair-minded and willing to go across the aisle to get things done (although he has made compromises to get support lately). He has been willing to take political risks that other Republicans were not willing to make. This is why he has gotten so much flak from the neocons. If Hillary is seen as divisive, then many independents will vote for McCain, I think. If McCain had not already come out in favor of continuing the war, then perhaps it would not be such a crucial vote, but Mogelescu is right: Obama has a better chance to get the independents and cross-over Republican moderates. Plus, we have to think of the Supreme Court. People do want change, and they also want bipartisanship because without it, we won't get healthcare reform, immigration reform, or many other issues addressed. Ordinary people (not party operatives) are really tired of the bickering, and they do want to see maturity and respect in their politicians.

[bjames]

Picture if Hillary wins the primary's, then theres a debate between and her and McCain! It will be a pissing contest on whos tougher against the terrorist, who can protect us from the terrorist and so on. Id rather see a debate where the philosophy of the war is challenged and the mindset and judgement that helped create and sustain it. Hillary stands on very shakey ground when it comes to the war. Her judgment thus far has been disgraceful. lets not forget about her vote to label Irans military guard as a terrorist group, giving bush again what he wanted. If shes says she was dupped in the first place with her vote for authorization for military use in Iraq, then what was her excuse for the vote on Iran that she made only months ago! she has no political courage at all!

[Herrington]

The Republicans will be fielding McCain precisely because he is a moderate. They are looking at the polls and see him beating Clinton and as having the best chance with Obama. They are going to be willing to compromise in order to survive. How"s that for Kumbaya?

A McCain victory will buy them time to re-invent themselves, to trot out a new camouflage, and to let the Bush backlash dissipate. And the opportunity to purge Republicans from government may well e lost.

Democrats are suffering from some kind of Bush PTSD. We are so invested in perfection that we fail to see that all three of the main contenders for the presidency now are moderate candidates for a moderate country. Moderates will be electing the next president, and not the far left or the far right. This is progress over the last cycle. Bush gave it to us. It behooves us to make the most of it.

What is really at stake is perception. If the next president and congress can actually make things better, the brand name of the administration will be remembered and rewarded. The Republicans know this, live by it. They just could not have known they were offering a buffoon last time and I expect they are plenty sorry now.

So of those out their that are sick of selecting the lesser evil, I say get over it, because if you do not vote for the lesser evil of your choice, the Republicans will elect their lesser evil instead.

[altohone]

Miles-

Note how Hillary supporters have misinterpreted your language.

They take "if you think she is the best candidate" and try to tell us you're saying you think she's the best candidate.

This dishonesty is prevelant.
Hillary was on FOX and KRON in SF CA this morning lying about what Obama said AGAIN.

Deomcrats wanting to win in this fashion seem to lack basic morals.

[Richard729]

"Frank Luntz, one of the top Republican strategists and the author of the Contract With America, said on Bill Maher Friday night that he does not know how to come up with a Republican strategy to defeat Barack Obama."

I don't put much stock in anything Luntz says. As far as defeating Barack Obama just look to al-Qaeda (which means literally, The Base) elements of the Republican Party: neo-nazis, white supremacists, Minutemen, xenophobics, NRA, militant evangelicals, racists, anti-Hispanic, James Dobson of Focus on the Family, Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council, almost all of Screech Radio, Fox News, American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation, Sean Hannity, Karl Rove, Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, Tammy Bruce, Ann Coulter and Rupert Murdoch who now owns the Wall Street Journal, Washington Times, New York Post -- should I go on?

Don't let Luntz or any of these professional, immersed-in-Bush-Koolaid" propagandists fool you for one minute. All of these powerful, well-oiled Republicans will pull out all the stops to trash Barack Obama to such a degree that by the time the November election comes around we'll see calls for Obama to be marched off to Guantanmo Bay prison and rendered to one of Bush's favorite dictatorship countries like Pakistan where he will receive the torture and waterboarding treatments which are the defining principles of the Bush autocracy.

[StillAmused]

It's simply stupefying how many allegedly Democratic posters defiantly state they'll vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee.

No difference? Johnny would gladly remain in Iraq another CENTURY in order to "win" his imaginary "war on terror", mouths all the warmongering clichés and slogans of the right wing, and you see no difference?

There's gonna be one hell of a market for cult deprogrammers after this one!

Mr. Mogulescu, you've acquiesced to the worst fear-mongering of the Bush administration and adopted it as your criterion -- fear that only the less capable candidate MIGHT win.

... or not.

[Effymens]

Never will l vote for Barrack Hussein Obama if he wins.The man is not ready for Primetime.

[bobo2626]

The point is that I don't know what is coming down the tracks for Obama..and neither does he.
Hillary(HRC?) is hated by the Republicans ( and the MSM) yet...she always ( well maybe not this time) seems to win.
SHE knows what is coming down the tracks.
Now ley's get to the other point: You would rather lose ...with intelligence and reason? Sounds like a repeat of 2000, and 2004. Both Gore and Kerry were more intelligent and reasonable then W, yet, (wait for it..) they lost. They THOUGHT they knew what was coming.
Sorry, I am tired of losing , with quality candidates, just because they were "nice Guys".
We had nearly 8 years of Republican policies crammed down our throat, because we chose "nice Guys" with "intelligence and reason", who eneded up losing.
You think Obama is smarter? You think he is a fighter? The media( progressives too!) have been doing most of his fighting for him.He won't have that kind of support against McCain.trust me.
I want to finally choose someone with intelligence, reason, and who "bring as good as they get".
Hillary(HRC?) is that woman.
Barrack maybe too, but why take that chance.

[eddiestardust]

Repeat after me:
A Republican is a republican is a REPUBLICAN.

Want a worse economy and a war WITHOUT END?

Then vote Republican....