The Genie Is Out of the Bottle in Iran

As a student of history and a political activist, there are few things I find as inspiring as thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of people pouring into the streets to protest a repressive government and demand their basic human rights, whether it's Boston in 1773, Paris in 1789, Petrograd in 1917, Washington, D.C. in 1963, Prague in 1968, Tiananmen Square in 1989, Berlin in 1989, Tehran in 1979, or Tehran in 2009'

Without the perspective of history, it's hard, in the moment, to predict the ultimate consequences of the massive popular demonstrations in Iran.

But in Boston, a few years after 1773, such actions helped bring forth "a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal."

In Washington, in 1963, they helped lead to the passage of the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, and resulted in a more perfect union which, a generation later, led to the election of the first African American president in American history.

In Petrograd in 1917, they led to the overthrow of a repressive Czarist regime, but then, a few years later, to the installation of a repressive Stalinist regime.

In Tehran, in 1979, they led to the overthrow of the repressive Shah, but then to the installation of an Islamic theocracy.

In Berlin, in 1989, they led to the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the end of totalitarian communism in Eastern Europe.

In Tiananmen Square, in 1989, the government was able to brutally suppress the protests and maintain political power by a combination of political repression and economic liberalization.

Will the result of the current mass demonstrations in Iran end up being more like Berlin in 1989, or Tiananmen Square in 1989? It's impossible to know yet.

But I do know this. When a regime loses legitimacy in the eyes of its young people, its intellectuals, and its middle classes, forces are unleashed which the regime cannot control and which will ultimately lead to dramatic political and social change. The Iranian Mullahs probably don't have the resources of the Chinese Communists to simply brutally repress democratic dissent and buy off the people with economic development, without serious protest (or even the covert support) from the rest of the West. If the Mullahs simply repress the aspirations of a new generation of Iranians for more freedom and greater participation in the community of nations, they will face even greater isolation from the rest of the world and greater disenchantment from Iran's younger generation, which in the long run is unsustainable.

The genie is out of the bottle in Iran, and whether it's a matter of weeks or a matter of years, the Islamic Republic will never be the same.

Comments

[BarakCarpathia]

Give Bush some props. The Iranians have freedom (sort of) in Afghanistan and Iraq. They want some of that too.

[BarakCarpathia]

That's gonna suck if his only claim to fame is "the first African American president.­"
That would suck if I were only noticed because my parents (their parents, their parents parents, etc) had different pigments.
50 years from now...."he was a really chitty president but he was African American".­..geeze
Get over it already.
Oh, and I don't believe you met Dr. King or he stayed at your house.
Otherwise I like your writing.
DE

[SamEllison]

I prefer toothpaste out of the tube.
It's more culturally sensitive.

[larry278]

The only sure thing about the situation in Iran which may be due to the election is that the USA & Pres Obama have no idea of what is going on in Iran. It has been that way since 1979.

[DeWayne]

It is decidedly discouraging to have (all) my posts regarding the similarity of todays Iran reports, with that of the 1953 CIA overthrowing in Iran, finding that these disturb the authors sensitivity concerning ?

Still, since so few are commenting, I would suggest leaving this comment, perhaps someone will come along as result and feel posting is not a waste of time.

[Miles Mogulescu - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm not quite sure I understand your point. In 1953 the British Government and the CIA organized a coup which overthrew the democratically elected government of Mohammed Mosaddeq (who had nationalized British oil wells) and imposed the brutal dictatorship of the Shah. This ended Iran's last attempt at democracy and helped lead to the overthrow of the Shah by the fundamentalist Mullah's in 1979 and the imposition of theocratic rule. Today it is those Mullah's who seem to be protecting a fraudulent election and it is the protestors in the streets of Iran who are demanding free and fair elections.

[Olivia Sterns - Huffpost Blogger]

Respectfully, I disagree. I do not think these protests in Iran are comparable to such revolutionary events. The opposition movement here is still well within the conservative vanguard of the Islamic Republic. Instead I side with Genevive Abdo, who wrote yesterday in The Christian Science Monitor: "A revolution is highly improbable in the foreseeable future. The idea that the genie of democracy escaped during this election season and now can't be placed back in the jar, as held by US and British pundits, is not only naive; this same thinking has been proved incorrect since the 1979 Islamic revolution­."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/olivia-sterns/revolution-no-regime-chan_b_216288.html

[Miles Mogulescu - Huffpost Blogger]

Respectfully, I don't pretend to know what the outcome of the mass demonstrations in Iran will be, nor do I think anyone else knows either, whether it's US and British pundits or Iranian politicians. What my study of history tells me is that once social unrest is unleashed and the hopes of a new generation for change are raised, even authoritarian politicians can't necessarily control those forces and they take on a life of their own.

[JackWhistle]

Aye to that!

[CanHandleTheTruth]

That's what everyone was proclaiming in the West 20 years ago: "the genie is out of the bottle in Beijing."

The Chinese made sure that it didn't happen, and are most likely 'advising' Tehran on how to do the same (alongside Russia's counsel as well).

[JackWhistle]

Those people had economic concerns that were integral to their problems. They believed that their government COULD give them more chances at prosperity (see free market).. just chose not too. At least.. if what I've read on the subject is correct. Once they started giving the people more economic freedom the power base for the pro democracy movement dissipated (I think). These guys have seen their prosperity taken away from them by incompetence. Sliiight difference I believe. They have also already attempted to crack down on dissidents already. Not going so well. They also were under the illusion that they had a real democracy ALREADY. That had to sting finding out the truth. Add to that how these people want a better relationship with the west (not something the current administration can provide) and they are unlikely to back down.
(these are my impressions based on what I know so far.. not opinions or facts to me)