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MJ Rosenberg

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Is Israel Determined to Bomb Iran, Nukes or No Nukes?

Posted: 05/02/2012 4:02 pm

The media is full of reports from Israel about leading intelligence and military officials publicly assailing the Netanyahu government's line on Iran. One after another, Israel's most knowledgeable (and usually hawkish) members of the security establishment are coming around to the U.S. view that the Iranian government has not yet decided to develop nuclear weapons. They are concluding that the best way to avoid that eventuality is through a combination of diplomacy and sanctions, not war. This is also the Obama administration's view.

This developing consensus, combined with the start of negotiations with Iran, has led the New York Times and other major media outlets to conclude that the threat of an Israeli attack is receding. Even Obama administration officials seem to be moving in that direction.

That, in turn, has led the two Israelis who will make the decision whether or not to attack to double down on their threats of military action. Neither Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu nor his Minister of Defense Ehud Barak wants anyone to believe that they consider the war option dead. Here is Barak's latest warning as reported by the Times:

Just imagine the most unstable elements in the hands of the most unstable regime in one of the most unstable regions of the world," he warned. "It is well understood in Washington, D.C., as well as in Jerusalem that as long as there is a future existential threat to our people, that all options to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons should stay on the table, and they will.

Barak's position makes sense on one level. He and Netanyahu might believe that indicating that the war threat is gone might encourage cockiness, even recklessness, in Tehran. Rare is the government that tells an adversary that the military option is "off the table." That comes after an agreement, not before.

Of course, it is unlikely that the war option has been ruled out by Netanyahu, Barak or the Israel lobby here.

They have been peddling the Iranian threat for well over a decade with the clear message that "crippling sanctions" are a start toward neutralizing Iran but, ultimately, the only sure means to accomplish the job is through regime change, which itself may only be accomplished by means of war.

Any doubt that this is the "line" from Jerusalem and the lobby can be quickly eliminated by reading what the Republican candidates for president (with the exception of Ron Paul) said during the primary campaign. Of particular significance are the hawkish positions of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (who will almost surely be the GOP nominee) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

That is because Romney and Netanyahu have been close friends since the 1970's and Romney has said that on matters relating to Israel, he will defer to Netanyahu. As for Gingrich, he will not be the GOP nominee, but his hawkish views on Iran are significant because his largest campaign donor, by far, is Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate, who is one of Netanyahu's most influential confidantes.

Neither Romney or Gingrich would be saber-rattling if Netanyahu and/or the lobby did not want them to. Like all matters related, even tangentially, to Israel, Iran policy is a campaign issue not a studied foreign policy position. The Republican hawks may or may not believe that war is the answer but they believe, and believe correctly, that war-mongering is what the Israeli government and its lobby want to hear.

That is why it's naïve to believe that just because Israeli security officials agree with their U.S. counterparts that the Iranian government is not now developing nuclear weapons, the Israeli government and its lobby are going to stop pushing for war.

If their determination to go to war was, in fact, motivated by the fear that Iran was about to develop nuclear weapons, the emerging consensus that it, in fact, isn't might stop Netanyahu and Barak's agitating for war. After all, once the supposed threat of Israel's annihilation was gone, so would be their desire to preempt.

However, it It is not Israel's elimination that the Israeli leadership and its lobby are worried about; it is the elimination of Israel's nuclear monopoly and its regional hegemony. Ehud Barak admitted as much to Charlie Rose last year. He said that if he were an Iranian government official, he would probably want a weapon, too -- not to destroy Israel but because "they look around, they see the Indians are nuclear, the Chinese are nuclear, Pakistan is nuclear, not to mention the Russians" -- and Israel.

In other words, Barak conceded that Iran's nuclear ambitions, if it had them, are not motivated by its determination to eradicate Israel but by its overall regional concerns. It aspires to play a larger role in the region and, no doubt, would like to serve as something of a check on Israel's regional power which enables the Israeli government to do whatever it wants whenever it wants to. (Israel does not approve of Turkey's regional ambitions either but can't do anything about them, given that Turkey is a member of NATO and thus a formal ally of the United States which Israel is not).

That is why Netanyahu and Barak have not set aside the possibility of attacking Iran. They, quite simply, want to put Iran in its place.

The good news is that the Israeli people do not agree with them. A full 63 percent of Israelis oppose attacking Iran, believing that war is a more frightening prospect than a nuclear-armed Iran. It is safe to assume that risking the lives of their children to assert Israeli hegemony would appeal to them even less than going to war to stop a theoretical Iranian nuclear weapon.

Both Netanyahu and Barak are known for their messianic view of themselves, and messiahs don't much care what lesser mortals think, even when those lesser mortals are some of Israel's most knowledgeable military and intelligence officials.

Here is Barak in the New York Times describing how seriously he takes their concerns:

It's good to have diversity in thinking and for people to voice their opinions. But at the end of the day, when the military command looks up, it sees us -- the minister of defense and the prime minister.

When we look up, we see nothing but the sky above us.

Wow. According to Barak, the only thing above him and Netanyahu is "the sky above us." This makes Louis XIV ("L'Etat, c'est moi") sound like James Madison.

Happily, Barak is wrong. Above him and Netanyahu, long before you get to the sky, is the United States of America and its president. The United States has interests in the Middle East too (like the safety of its military and civilian personnel) and it also supplies Israel with almost $4 billion a year in aid, more by far than it provides any other nation.

Netanyahu and Barak may choose to look skyward and not "down" to their own people. But they cannot ignore the United States which can stop an Israeli attack on Iran with a single word: no.

That is what George W. Bush did in 2008. Is it conceivable that Barack Obama would not do the same?

 

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02:39 AM on 05/06/2012
While a majority of Israelis oppose a "unilaterial Israeli war" with Iran, a majority of Israelis support a "US-led invasion" of Iran....this points to what-may-be-considered a fact:
Israelis, for the most part, support war but only when it does not cost them greatly. This makes sense of course. Still, it is naive to think that a belligerent people like Israelis shy away from war. After all, the Israeli nation has ethnically cleansed, occupied, invaded, tortured, killed, and so much more!!! I do not think that they are afraid of spilling someone else's blood. Instead, they are concerned that int his case, the blood spilled will also be their own. For that reason, they also strongly support a US-led invasion of Iran...

In other words, nothing has changed substantially in the general Israeli character: It is still a blood-thristy gritty character. It is still shrewd. The author does little to address those two aspects of the general Israeli character.
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Baghooli
Immortals!
03:49 PM on 05/05/2012
Well deduced Mr. Rosenberg!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Yarden
Tel Aviv dude
11:03 PM on 05/04/2012
Once again Rosenberg fails to mention Iran's A) Sponsorship of terrorism against Israel, Israeli's abroad and Jewish organizations worldwide B) Iran's violation of the NPT C) Six UNSC to halt all Uranium Enrichment until they expose there program in full transparency.
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Vlady
Better Late
02:39 PM on 05/04/2012
MJ. Your posts becoming too predictable, mundane and boring
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Nwo2012
Sue me, I boycott products from the settlements
02:51 PM on 05/04/2012
Im nominating your for the Huffington Post irony award
10:10 PM on 05/04/2012
You forget to mention correct and insightful.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Yarden
Tel Aviv dude
11:00 PM on 05/04/2012
Funny how the Iranian media disagrees with you.
01:12 PM on 05/04/2012
Iran and the Dangerous Deception of Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal

What guarantee does Iran have that the information that the IAEA inspectors gather at Iranian nuclear power sites won’t be used by Israel and the US to plan an illegal attack – an attack which has been the subject of their increasingly bellicose threats?
The US is insistent on Iran opening up every military base to inspection, but allows Israel to keep concealed their massive undeclared nuclear arsenal under the astonishingly dangerous deception known as ‘nuclear ambiguity’.
The US and Israel repeatedly state that ‘every option is on the table’, which clearly includes nuclear weapons. Threats by a nuclear power against a non-nuclear power, and attacks on civilian nuclear power programs, are both illegal according to the same charters of the UN that America is claiming Iran should respect.
It is known for a confirmed fact that Iran has no nuclear weapons but that Israel has secretly built up to 400 nuclear warheads, according to American scientists, that are completely outside the inspection of the United Nations’ IAEA.
All of the above, leads inescapably to the stench of political corruption, misinformation, propaganda, the power of unelected lobbyists and shadowy vested interests, all of which violate the democratic principles of both America and Europe whilst much of it is illegal according to international law.
Yet democratic governments in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, Rome and Madrid, amongst others, remain silent and look the other way.

The International Society for Open Government (TISFOG)
10:07 PM on 05/04/2012
To add; Israel acquired heavy water from Norway on the condition that it only be used for energy. Israel lied and used it for weapons. Kissinger speculated aloud that he thought that Israel stole nuclear materials from the US. There is solid evidence corroborating Kissinger's speculation.

Imagine they hysteria if Iran had done the same.
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Kramerica-Industries
And with Darren’s help, we’ll get that chicken
06:49 AM on 05/04/2012
I wouldn't rule out the chance that recent comments by former head of the Shin Bet and former head of the Mossad in which they warned about Barak and Netnayahu careless intent to bomb Iran, were actually coordinated by Barak and Netanyahu and not going over their heads in order to hurt them.
The Israeli government wants to have the USA and the west feel an imminent threat that Israel is going to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities so they would step up their actions to stop Iran's nuclear program.
What better way to make the world feel Israel is not bluffing other than having those too high officals come out and say, we were there on the meetings, Barak and Netanyahu are crazy they are seriously going to go through with it and bomb Iran's nuclear program.
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Kramerica-Industries
And with Darren’s help, we’ll get that chicken
06:00 AM on 05/04/2012
There have probably haven't been a more careful Israeli Prime minister when it comes to the use of force than Netanyahu. With all the claims of being a hardliner if you look at what Netanyahu actually did during his years as Prime Minister now and before. You will see he is not messianic at all, he is a very hesitant and careful when it comes to using the IDF.
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NorthernBorder
10:54 AM on 05/04/2012
He has indeed cancelled more special op missions than any other PM. More I think becase he is chicken to fail. Rabin had written his resignation before the Entebe raid and instructed that it be delivered if there were over a certain amount of casualties. What a difference! How I still miss that man. I was told when something heavy was happening he would sit at the back of the darkened ops room smoking cigarette after cigarette, leaning back in his chair, until the very last soldier had returned safely.
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Kramerica-Industries
And with Darren’s help, we’ll get that chicken
03:25 PM on 05/04/2012
With all the negative regarding Olmert, the corruption the mismanagement of the second Lebanon war and so on. The man had the guts to take hard decisions. He ordered the bombing of the Syrian nuclear site. After we were promised following the withdrawal from south Lebanon that Israel's reaction would be severe were we still attack and failing to act on that promise he took the army to a war which finally changed the equation.
And the same goes to the promise regarding continued rockets after leaving Gaza. Not a lot of people would have what it takes to take Israel to another war after the backlash he got after the second Lebanon war.
He had the courage to offer the Palestinians a final status deal that if only the Palestinians had a leader with equal courage would have been accepted.
The man wasn't afraid to take on himself the decisions he thought were right for Israel.
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Yarden
Tel Aviv dude
11:01 PM on 05/04/2012
We could have Olmert back :).
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Geo80
Truth. Reality. Smart, sane people agree with me
01:14 AM on 05/04/2012
Oh look! The 850th column in a row from MJ Rosenberg that is completely identical to all his other columns! He introduces something, relentlessly attacks whatever pro-Israel groups/people he can think of, and then he leaves.
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discocapper
Israel Only Fires Back!
02:51 AM on 05/04/2012
He's the leading candidate for the 2012 "Robert Fisk Award."
12:56 AM on 05/04/2012
Also, by 'we' I meant journalists.
12:55 AM on 05/04/2012
It's funny how SLOW Western journalists are! I mean, and please don't get me wrong here, the whole world outside of Ottawa, Washington, Berlin, &c know that Israel is just bangin the war drum....but only now are journalists beginning to catch on.

It's hilarious! You know, we read about the collapse of regimes in junior high and high school. Yet it never seems to dawn on the person-in-the-present, ie., most people living right now in the West, that we are 'that' decadent civilization, we are 'that' corrupted population, and we are experiencing 'that' decline that so many other long-gone regimes and peoples have been and experienced.

Israel is like the litmus test for how far down the well we've fallen. And we've fallen deeeeeeep. I betchya, if Israel were to nuke Iran tomorrow, virtually every Western journalist would either
1. praise the act
2. mitigate it, explain it away, or apologize for it
3. be infuriated, not that Iranian's died, but that Israelis will now be known as Mass Murderers.

But its so likely that few Western journalists would decry the action, claiming it a crime against humanity, that must not be justified so much as punished.....
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discocapper
Israel Only Fires Back!
02:53 AM on 05/04/2012
You just used the largest amount of words ever to say nothing.
02:33 AM on 05/06/2012
That you are unwilling to acknowledge the deep flaws in Western journalism is not surprising. 'Little Eichmanns' abound in every society, and so I am not surprised to find yet one more 'Little Eichmann'. Nonetheless, Western journalism can be very dangerous, such as in its unflinching ability to dehumanize others, in this case Iranians.

Thankfully, there are people similar to you who are unwilling to acknowledge campaigns of dehumanization. Moreover, those people are instrumental in maintaining an atmosphere of hostility as well as institutions and practices that result in tremendous suffering.
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07:33 PM on 05/03/2012
"I am an Ashkenazi Jew. My ancestors came to America from countries in Eastern Europe at the turn of the last century, four sets of great grandparents from four different countries. Of those family members that remained in Europe, we know for sure that three of them were murdered by the Nazis. We can imagine that numerous relatives that we don't know about may have also been murdered, as all of the four countries my family came from were occupied by the Nazis and all of the Jewish communities in those countries suffered heavy losses. At the time of WWll, only one of my grandparents was in touch with family in the "old country". We therefore know nothing of the fate of the family of my other three grandparents.

When I was a young child my parents and a group of their friends founded the Beth Am Temple in Pearl River, NY. The synagogue was very active in promoting the Zionist agenda, and in promoting Israel Bonds, the purchase of trees in Israel, sponsoring a Zionist youth group, and other pro-Israel activities. As a teenager, I was president of a Zionist youth group, and member of two others, including the one at my synagogue. Also as a teenage, I participated in the massive demonstration at the UN against Arafat's speaking appearance there, this on the grounds that he was a "terrorist."

http://www.richsiegel.com/page6.html
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12:58 PM on 05/04/2012
You are managing to stay irrelevant, I see...
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06:43 PM on 05/04/2012
Cont'd

"Several years ago, as I got sick and tired of all the bad news coming from Israel, and caring deeply about it, I decided that I needed to educate myself thoroughly on the subject. I considered myself fairly well-read and well-informed, but I wanted to know everything. So, I began reading everything I could get my hands on- from both sides of the issue, and talking to everyone I could find who had first-hand knowledge- again from both sides. I fully expected this process to deepen my support for Israel. It did not.

What I found out is that I had been lied to all my life, by people who were also lied to, and that I had supported something that I never would have supported had I been told anything resembling the truth. The truth is this: Zionism was a political agenda which sought to take a land with a 95% non-Jewish population on it, Palestine, and make it into a Jewish-exclusivist state. It accomplished this in 1948 through massacres, campaigns of fear, and military forced mass expulsions, making three quarters of a million people homeless. "
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
07:29 PM on 05/03/2012
Well, if this is true, then I can say with all my experience in treating this illness, that Israel is not a rogue nation, but, a psychopathic nation.
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NorthernBorder
10:58 AM on 05/04/2012
Neither, we simply suffer from PTSD - generation after generation
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warmonkey
09:06 AM on 05/05/2012
well get some help-
03:28 PM on 05/07/2012
Suffer from PTSD or wallow in it?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
06:56 PM on 05/03/2012
The LIE of the Century brought to you by Jerusalem Post:

why Iran should not be allowed nuclear bomb. Israel and U.S. have come up with million excuses, all lies,The Israelis have said Iran would “wipe them off the map” if Iran had a bomb, but leadership in Iran has proven itself much more stable, sane, logical, and peaceful than Zionist regime Iran would like to see “vanish from the pages of time”.

What Ahmadinejad actually said, to quote his exact words in Farsi:

"Imam ghoft een rezhim-e ishghalgar-e qods bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad."

That passage might not mean much to -Zionists trying to manufacture a casus belli, but one word might stick out: rezhim-e. It is word "regime.""Ahmadinejad did not refer to Israel the country , or to Jews, but to Israeli regime. This is a vastly significant distinction, as one cannot wipe a regime off the map. Ahmadinejad does not even refer to Israel by name, he instead uses specific phrase "rezhim-e ishghalgar-e qods" (regime occupying Jerusalem).

. Nor was "wipe out" ever said. Yet we are led to believe that Iran's president threatened to "wipe Israel off the map." despite never having uttered the words "map." "wipe out" or even "Israel."

the full quote translated directly to English:

"The Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time."””
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Kramerica-Industries
And with Darren’s help, we’ll get that chicken
06:41 AM on 05/04/2012
And what does he really say when he and the crowd chant death to Israel?
http://youtu.be/FckLO8HcNyo
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Seawolf56
Truth should never be censored
06:00 PM on 05/03/2012
I hope you are wrong on this one MJ... I hope the people of Isrsael and the people of the USA have convinced those in charge not to allow such an insane thing to happen.
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NorthernBorder
04:42 AM on 05/05/2012
I wonder if you are sure when it come to us perishing. (the usa kept our survivors for 2 years in the camps because it didnt want the disease spread through europe again. maybe you feel this too?
04:06 PM on 05/03/2012
Is Israel Determined to Bomb Iran, Nukes or No Nukes?

Maybe. But Israel is surely determined to destroy Israel.
11:16 PM on 05/03/2012
that's for sure as one would lead to the other guaranteed
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NorthernBorder
04:39 AM on 05/05/2012
Why do you think we are going to bomb - as long the factories go away its fine. i dont believe the sanctions work in fascist societies where the working masses cant say a thing or cry for food. I hope our cyber war guys can do it and have their missiles fly off to china