Lots of things are coming together to give 2012 the feel of a make or break year -- a year that could well determine whether the world transitions to a better and more stable place or, instead, battles an even larger number of economic, political and social fires. The drivers in four key geographical areas will be heavily influenced by the interaction of political leadership, the strength and agility of institutions, and the newly empowered segments of society.
First, there is the US where, to state the obvious, the results of the November elections will meaningfully impact the path taken by the largest economy in the world, and its only superpower.
This is an election about the economy 00 past, present and future. In the next few months, we will all be bombarded by various explanations of why America lacks its traditional growth dynamism, why so many people remain un- and underemployed, and why poverty is rising to such unacceptable levels.
Influenced by movements on both the left and right that are able to effectively self organize and project near and far, our votes will send important signals on what is needed to overcome our economic malaise. I suspect that, collectively, we will opt for compromise rather than corner solutions.
We will challenge Washington to strike the right balance between tax and spending reforms, immediate stimulus and medium-term debt and deficit solutions, incentives for businesses and safety nets for the vulnerable segments of our population, etc. In the process, we will urge our politicians to shed legacy shackles in order to come together for the good of the nation.
None of this will materialize without effective leadership. Our leaders need to quickly unite on a common vision, distill common purpose, catalyze multi-year nationwide efforts, and embrace midcourse corrections as needed (and there will be quite a few given how many unthinkables are now realities in America and in societies that we interact with closely).
Europe, the second key area, no longer has room for compromise. Its "moment of truth" is in 2012 when critical decisions -- taken either actively or passively -- will determine whether the Eurozone breaks up or, to use the words of French President Sarkozy, is "re-founded" with a firmer foundation. Again, the interaction between popular movements, institutions, and leadership will be key.
Many more people in many more European countries will be taking to the street. They will be united by a simple demand -- to end the economic and financial turmoil that is killing jobs.
Europe cannot afford more political bickering, misdiagnosis, and incomplete solutions. Its leaders and institutions need to urgently pivot, abandoning active inertia that has been anchored for too long by the delusion of returning to a status quo ante that, in reality, is no longer feasible.
There is no going back to the old Eurozone of 17 countries. It is either fragmentation or a smaller and less imperfect union of countries with similar conditions.
This brings us to the third area where, also, there is no going back to the old -- the growing number of countries where dissatisfied citizens only have the streets, as opposed to also fair and free elections, to change their governments.
Such popular movements are no longer limited to the Arab world. They will pop up in many other countries.
The required pivots here are much harder and more complex. Most uprisings are led by leaderless grass root movements, enabled by social media and fueled by multiyear grievances. Rulers still hanging on to power often opt for fear tactics to divide citizens, thus repressing the forces of orderly change and experimentation that are an inevitable part of the political maturation process. And existing institutions are not much help, having been corrupted over many years to serve now-discredited elites rather than the newly empowered masses.
So, where does all this leave us?
America should be able to come together, recognize its structural challenges, and unite on multi-year efforts needed to promote economic growth, create jobs, and restore the sense that the system is fair. Europe should be able to redefine its regional underpinnings and, after the inevitable initial disruptions, regain the financial stability that underpins economic and social well-being. Newly transitioning countries should be able to pivot, albeit noisily and imperfectly, from dismantling the past to building a better future.
Regrettably, in today's world, what SHOULD happen does not easily translate into what is LIKELY to happen. Reality is far trickier, messier and, well, more uncertain.
Uncertainty is the defining characteristic of the fourth and final area where it is even harder to reconcile the should and likely. I am referring here to countries that are under enormous pressure and, to use Thomas Friedman's insightful analogy, can explode rather than implode when critically destabilized.
Countries like Iran, North Korea, and Syria face a mix of destabilizing influences that could well come to a boil in 2012. Containment forces will compete with those fueling accelerated change. And here, neither institutions nor leaders and popular movements can be credible and effective stabilizers.
By all counts, 2012 is shaping up to be a memorable year. In some areas, the potential clearly exists for societies to seize opportunities for change and transition to a better place. In others, stability can only follow a period of even greater uncertainty and risks.
This balance is not pre-determined. Much will depend on decisions to be made, and actions to be taken. Let us all hope that they end up tipping the balance favorably. There is a lot at stake.
Doug Bandow: North Korea: Time for Washington to Step Back and Let South Korea Lead
Our involvement in world leadership in the past has been reactionary and proactively violent...instead of leading by example. And any potential political leader needs to show that equality and democracy is alive and well in America. That the American people come first. Who will be that politican with guts? With integrity? Who will be the leader that says to the American People that corporations are not, in fact, people? Who acknowledges that the stock market is rigged for the very few, against the majority? Who supports term limits for all politicians. A politican who does believe that there is a need for campaign reform....because we cannot have great leaders if they are beholden.
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I hope that this year we get some "true" leaders...who are ready to lead by example. Because what I feel we have now is - just more of the same. Nothing new, surprising, heroic, gutsy or really "American" in the sense of our core values. It's just another episode of "Dancing with the Candidates" or "The Candidette". And we are waiting to see who will pay as much money for this Presidency as they did for Kim K's wedding.
Banker
Does this make things more complicated? No. The 99% will begin to drive things. They will push for a simpler way, something that is within their means, a honest market system where trust and entrepreneurship is possible again. Its quite exciting, the way ahead. If not for us, then for someone else certainly.
ALL the SAFETY NETS will be DEMOLISHED One by one if the GOPTers are elected.
WE NEED a HUGE DEMocratic MAJORITY to COUNTER the trend .
Obama NEVER REALLY HAD a SUPER Majority because of the many many BLUE DOG Democrats who voted with the GOPers.
LET's AIM HIGH for 2012 YES WE CAN Again !
Where there is a WILL , there is a WAY...............we just have to TURN OUT and VOTE for DEMs as the ONLY ones who will PROTECT the Majority of People not the few.
SUPPORT the DEM Senator if you have one . WHICH State do you vote in ?
Have you heard of the REAGAN DEMOCRATS ? well it is also the fault of those DEFECTORS , who betrayed the DEM Party since Reagan and made the Dem. Party weaker and weaker
http://thetsilverjournal.com
Preventing 400 Chernobyls may become a major goal during 2012.
See the Aesop Institute website to understand the problem - and what might be done to prevent the worst from happening.
Ironically, wise action can dramatically improve the economic and political landscape.
As incompetenÂt U.S. politicianÂs (i.e., Paulson, Bush, Cheney, Levin, Shelby, Dodd, Bernake, Geithner, Clinton, Ruben, Greenspan) did nothing to prevent it, their Wall St. cronies & lobbyists laughed their way to the bank by betting against the same structured products in which they sold throughout the world.
Perhaps, the central question is how could politicians and bankers rape and pillage the financial system of a country for so long through deception and fraud without being accountable? (i.e., think 401k, real estate, giving millions of tax payer $ to countries(Israel, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria), bailing out N.Y.C. in the 70's, Paulson using tax payer $ for what in essence was a coup d'etat of the U.S. Treasury, etc...)
Wow, isn't capitalism great in the U.S.?
As a Chinese economist recently stated, where ever there is wealth in the world, Wall St. will find a way to steal it while politicianÂs do nothing to prevent it...
The stench of the financial crisis created by Wall St. and allowed by U.S. politicianÂs permeates from Shangai to Dubai...!
As a conservative I can tell you that *everyone* hates Wallstreet. They are at best a very high tax on access to capital and at worst; we haven't seen their worst. But they do have vulnerabilities. The Internet for one. The fact that corruption of politicos does not happen overnight and can be curbed with term limits. That Americans can move their money out ... and do terrible damage. Sadly though you are talking about a war between a very small, smart and highly funded army versus a huge dumb and misguided army. Until Americans (main street) can unite to battle the Vampire Squid they will just continue to run their scams all over the world.
wish you a wonderful New Year for your small biz.
BIG niew .........DEMS want to IMPROVE Health Care Laws with
a PUBLIC OPTION
That should help you Small Biz people.
So instead of bashing CEOs (of course, Wallstreet CEOs are fair game) consider what it will take to keep US and foreign corporations in the US. It can be done, just not by Obama.
If CEOs, banksters, lobbyists and politicians can unionize against the American workers, why can't the American Worker unionize? The American Worker is the one who drives the American Economy and the sooner you and your crony friends realize that fact, the faster the economy can be healed. Instead of slashing min wage for the American Worker, how bout setting a Max wage on the CEO's and letting the stockholders and the workers enjoy the extra bonus money saved?
Wait a minute BigDaddy........i agree with your FIRST paragraph,
BUT all the things that Corporations need to make it here is and has been considered by the Obama Aministration like reducing the corporate Tax rate and a tax exemption for all the Corporate CASH stashed overseas to come HOME.
The
PROBLEM is that bills cannot be passed in a filibuster Gop obstructionist Senate.
I simply do not buy that OBAMA is ANTI BIZ or ANTI Wall St or Anti Corporation.
IF
HE Were those things, his base and progressives would not be AGAINST him so much !
Obama is a Moderate conservative who really believed in Health CARE reform, so that costs would come down, which UNFORTUNATELY because of lack of PUBLIC OPTION may not bend the COST curve.
1. Term limits
2. No outside funding for elections. Every candidate gets $1m 4 months before the election to spend on their campaign. No PACs, no corporate money, no money of any sort.
3. Getting 5% of the voters in a District on a nominating petition puts you on the ballot and provides the same funding as anyone else.
4. Budgets must be passed before the fiscal year and must be compared to the past 2 years actual spending. No budget no pay until it is passed. If it is more than 90 days late the current members of congress lose their funding for their next election.
That should change the character and nature of congress. We should get real leaders to run vs the party drones we currently elect.
I assume you mean $1m for congressmen only, not for state and national elections, but one of the best parts is the limitation to 4 months of campaigning. I am so sick of the Republican circus all over TV, internet, and print that I want to move to a Himalayan mountaintop or some equivalent to be sure I don't have to see any more of it.
If you could effect this, Congress would suddenly learn how to do its job.
In re: another post of yours: Too late to look up cost figures now, but probably will in next day or so. However, I was including Iraq (most of that money will not be spent now, reducing budget needs equivalently) and the Republican give-away to Big Pharm by disallowing negotiation of drug prices for Medicare huge. Also removing caps for payroll tax will help there, as will jobs - if there ever are any.
Back to this post of yours: It's also too bad we can't give all the candidates truth serum before they speak publicly and IQ and knowledge tests before they are allowed on a ballot.
Since members of Congress would have strict 12 years in Washington, we will not have career politicians. I think a lot of other kinds of people will run for public office.
I'm going to pitch it to a few Governors to get their reactions.
So, Mohamed old buddy, old pal.....exactly which US of A (aka America) are you living in?