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Mohamed A. El-Erian

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What August's Jobs Report Tells Us

Posted: 09/07/2012 11:31 am

Today's data release confirms that job creation remains disappointingly sluggish; and, if Congress continues to bicker and dither, our unemployment problems risk getting even more deeply embedded in the structure of our economy. Indeed, each day that passes without a meaningful policy response means that this national crisis becomes much harder to solve.

Between the estimate for August job creation (96,000) and the revisions to the numbers for June and July, the three month average has now dropped to below 100,000 -- a number that does not even keep up with population growth let alone put a dent in joblessness.

To make things worse, August saw no growth in average earnings. Both hours worked and hourly earnings came in flat.

What about the longer-term indicators?

Too many Americans continue to drop out of the labor force -- 368,000 in August alone. While the result is a lower unemployment rate (8.1%), we should not be misled by this widely-quoted headline number. The labor participation rate continues to fall and, at 63.5%, is at a multi-decade low.

There are other flashing yellow lights signaling the deep rooted nature of this crisis.

Notwithstanding citizens dropping out of the labor force, 5 million Americans were classified in August as "long-term unemployed." Meanwhile, teenage joblessness rose to over 24% -- an alarming level given the risk that out of work youth face in going from being unemployed to being unemployable.

All this calls -- very loudly and persistently -- for a comprehensive policy response out of Washington, D.C. -- along the lines that President Obama proposed to Congress last year. But with both houses so deeply divided and polarized, the best we should expect out of DC is policy activism just out of the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately this is insufficient.

As hard as Ben Bernanke and his Fed colleagues try -- and they have been trying very hard, taking monetary policy ever deeper into unfamiliar/experimental territory -- the institution does not have the proper tools to deal with our unemployment crisis.

The bottom line is a simple one. It should concern us all as citizens and parents. And it is worth repeating over and over again:

If Congress is not careful, these trends will further increase an already-material risk that, for the first time in a very long time, our children's generation may be worse off than that of their parents.

 
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Today's data release confirms that job creation remains disappointingly sluggish; and, if Congress continues to bicker and dither, our unemployment problems risk getting even more deeply embedded in t...
Today's data release confirms that job creation remains disappointingly sluggish; and, if Congress continues to bicker and dither, our unemployment problems risk getting even more deeply embedded in t...
 
 
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08:10 AM on 09/10/2012
The proof is in the pudding. Instead of really fixing or creating. All time and energy is spent manipulating facts and data.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
weekendpartier
I need some money!
09:35 PM on 09/11/2012
What? What nonsense are you babbling on about? Data is data. Manipulation is easier if people don't understand or take the time to understand the data.

For example, here's two different equations that have the same answer:

A. 2 + 2 = 4

B. 2 X 2 = 4

Looks the same but they're not the same. The results are the same but the explanation and comprehension are different. Same is true with Dept. of Labor data.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
11:51 PM on 09/09/2012
"...if Congress continues to bicker and dither, ..." If monkeys fly you'll some hope for change. Meanwhile, here is the true perspective. http://napoleonlive.info/economics/state-of-the-economy/
11:25 PM on 09/09/2012
This country works best when the president is of one party and congress is controlled by the other.
Reagan - dems controlled congress
Clinton - reps controlled congress last 6 years of his 2 terms

So if you want to vote for BO, vote for reps in congress.

When the same party controlls everything, we get that Pelosi crap about having to vote for a bill before you can find out what is in it. She should have been run out of congress for that level of stupidity.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
11:19 PM on 09/09/2012
Careful, Mohamed. You are coaching the Republicans how to do what they do best - sabotage the American economy.
oil patch
if you voted obama, you are to blame
11:05 PM on 09/09/2012
We have a November solution, fire obama. Done, next world problem?
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weekendpartier
I need some money!
09:37 PM on 09/11/2012
Okay but you right wingers don't piss and moan that Obama got reelected.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nkurland
I'm going to leave this planet alive
09:36 PM on 09/09/2012
The August job report doesn't tell us anything new, but simply confirms what we already knew: absent massive intervention, we'll be dealing with persistent unemployment for at least another decade.

Nothing about this recovery has been particularly encouraging. Americans have been rehired at low wages, whether temp jobs, retail or low skill manufacturing jobs. Meanwhile, millions of Americans are stuck paying overpriced mortgages. To top it off, the bailouts, particularly QE1, QE2, have allowed for rampant speculation on Wall Street, driving up the prices of food and commodities.

So it should be no surprise that our low wage recovery is accompanied by all the same destructive patterns (unequal income gains, rising household debt), that led to the financial crisis.

Simply pursuing the same behaviors to pump up short-term growth won't cut it. Recovery and reform need to go hand in hand.
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weekendpartier
I need some money!
09:47 PM on 09/11/2012
Yep you said it. Problem is, they don't know what to do.

1. Jobs and manufacturing jobs have been offshoring since the 70s. Nixon went to China, and Clinton signed NAFTA.
2. HOUSING. We gotta fix housing, but people can't buy houses flipping burgers, but, ah, those good jobs went to China and India.
3. BOOMERS: the richest cohort in US history, but also the cohort with the highest debt to savings ratio - are retiring en masse.
4. Teenagers: 26% unemployment because jobs they used to do legally and on the books like dishwashing, landscaping, working in Joe Pop's Garage, etc. are now done by, oops, illegals for cash who aren't paying SS taxes, Medicare, medicaid, and state income taxes. I know because I deliver pizza and our cook is from La Esperanza, Honduras! He's got a nice house down there...paid for by cash.....GEEZ, who's stupid now? Americans or Illegals?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
apwerner
08:56 PM on 09/09/2012
Yep, this is exactly what Romney and his republican groupies want... they want the country to tank so they can blame our President. These are the most egocentric and truly evil people on this earth. If I ever believed in an antichrist, Romney would be it. Scary as that sounds.
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08:53 PM on 09/09/2012
"If Congress is not careful, these trends will further increase an already-material risk that, for the first time in a very long time, our children's generation may be worse off than that of their parents."

But that's been the case for the past several generations.
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OleProfessor
"Ours is not a system based upon trust"
08:35 PM on 09/09/2012
America is stuck on stupid...Government borrowing is at an all time low...we could be borrowing and building and repairing improving Infrastructure and employing millions..!

Infrastructure pays for itself 10 x's over in time...

All this deficit talk is bunk a Cunard...

We can only growing out of what is for 60% or more of us a Depression..!
DUSAA-1775
never moon a werewolf
11:24 AM on 09/10/2012
...' Government borrowing is at an all time low....All this deficit talk is bunk a Cunard...;

With the National debt now over $16 trillion and growing at $1.3 trillion each year, how have you arrived at the alternate reality where ...' Government borrowing is at an all time low...'?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
OleProfessor
"Ours is not a system based upon trust"
12:16 PM on 09/10/2012
The government interest rates..it's simple arithmetic..remember consumers create jobs not billionaires..
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weekendpartier
I need some money!
09:52 PM on 09/11/2012
FEDERAL BORROWING as a percentage of GDP is LOWER than it was during WW2. That's the fact. The problem is THE TAX RATE IS AT A 65 YEAR ALL TIME LOW!
08:29 PM on 09/09/2012
A real leader could bring both sides together. Sadly, ours is part of the problem. Where is Clinton when you need him!
08:03 PM on 09/09/2012
The labor-force participation rate -- the percentage of the civilian working-age population that is either
working or looking for a job -- fell to 63.5 percent, the lowest since 1981. For men, the labor-force
participation rate was the lowest on record, at 69.8 percent, notes Neal Lipschutz at the Wall Street
Journal's Real Time Economics blog.

The majority's reaction to these numbers on Friday was that they were an awful sign, that the job market
is so bad that hundreds of thousands of people every month are simply giving up in despair. We have
growing numbers of people sitting around doing nothing, losing their job skills and their ability to buy
stuff.

VOTE FOR ROMNEY FOR HOPE AND CHANGE
08:02 PM on 09/09/2012
Is it also possible that some of these people have come out of the jobs market to go back to school?
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spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
11:20 PM on 09/09/2012
Or to retire? The baby boomers are starting to retire right about now. I'm one of them.
07:28 PM on 09/09/2012
"All this calls -- very loudly and persistently -- for a comprehensive policy response out of Washington, D.C. -- along the lines that President Obama proposed to Congress last year. "

Okay Republicans, before you start chanting the talking points, and reciting the "Obama's failed policies" mantra, read what Mr. El-Erian has said. Think about it, and understand that the President has proposed sound policies, and it is entirely the fault of Republicans who are obstructing the President's policies that our economy is sluggishly dragging along.
DUSAA-1775
never moon a werewolf
11:29 AM on 09/10/2012
If republicans are stooped from chanting their talking points, why do you get to go first and repeat talking points?

Present the proofs of your statement of fact that ' it is entirely the fault of Republicans who are obstructing the President's policies that our economy is sluggishly dragging along. ..' (and may I complement you for repeating that overused and very tired, talking point!)
08:26 PM on 09/10/2012
Mr. El-Erian points to Congress as being the impediment to a "comprehensive policy response out of Washington, D.C." If you dispute that, the conclusion of that sentence is "along the lines that President Obama proposed to Congress last year."The proof you're demanding has been obvious to anyone who has watched what has gone on in Congress for the last four years and knows full well that the Senate Republicans have obstructed every single piece of legislation that was introduced to improve the economy. They've obstructed jobs bill after jobs bill, despite the fact that those bills were for programs that Republicans have always supported in the past. McConnell has shamelessly stated that the Republicans' priority was to prevent Obama from winning re-election. What that means, the implication being obvious to anyone with half a brain, is that Republicans wanted to prevent the economy from rebounding, so they could blame Obama for "failed policies," as they're doing, and win the White House and majority control of the Senate. If that's still not enough evidence, try Googling the Republican leadership dinner meeting in DC on January 20, 2009.
MansfieldXXX
2014 Can't come soon enough
06:56 PM on 09/09/2012
Oh, all generation are going to be worse off if Obama is elected and that is exactly what the liberals want. It's all on you Dems. 100% your economy. Have fun! you clueless useless people don't have a prayer of fixing anything with the help of the private sector. Keep growing your government and I will keep buying my gold. You people deserve your misery.
06:16 PM on 09/09/2012
It tells us low wage jobs with few hours and much the same as the past 4 years.