GOP to Retake House in 2010? Maybe
When House whip Eric Cantor said the GOP would win a landslide in the 2010 midterm elections, I simply laughed out loud. Now, I am not a polling junkie or a professional political operative. But this tells me something: if the GOP doesn't work to actually deserve a shot at retaking the House in 2010 then their best chance is to play political games of dubious merit. Not that, you know, we should expect anything else given the current state of politics.
The GOP brand has polled badly. Pollster.com, run by the National Journal just posted an article showing dire straits for brand GOP:
The overall finding is simple -- the GOP's standing relative to the Democrats on both measures is worse than any opposition party in the sample. For instance, the Pew data show that the Republicans are currently viewed more negatively than any minority party in the previous four midterms in terms of both net favorables and the difference in net favorables between parties.
Nevertheless, Cantor insists that people want to put some limits on the Obama administration's power, and on the power of Nancy Pelosi. But the main components of the Obama agenda are overwhelmingly popular. The Public Option has been overwhelmingly popular, the ban on discriminating against people with pre-existing conditions is popular, being able to take insurance with you when you change jobs is popular, etc. The major reason the bills under discussion haven't been more robust is because of dissent within the Democratic party over their scope. Doesn't sound like the intense, scary government bogeyman with control that Cantor's trying to live-up. In fact I think the President will be able to make a more compelling case, that we had a discussion that Republicans decided largely to opt out of and that in their relative absence a broad coalition of Democrats spent a good amount of time haggling over even the broadest outlines of health reform. So as far as I'm concerned there isn't much if any merit to Cantor's argument. And I think it can be argued pretty clearly.
But of course Cantor's priming the media pump to generate the perception that his story may be plausible, which is step #1 to actually making it plausible. If nobody believes that the GOP has any fight in it for 2010, they'll put up fewer resources to finance the battles that would be necessary to beat a large number of Democrats. Indeed the GOP has a big enthusiasm problem, with a quarter-century low in the number of people self-identifying as Republicans.
So I think we're seeing two things. There's the current reality on the ground that the GOP is up you-know-what-creek with few prospective paddles, and the media reality where GOP leaders are trying to paint a picture of possibility for 2010.
Now, the question that follows is, to what extent does the GOP have to do anything substantive, as opposed to just changing tone and message, in order to get big gains? I think it depends.
Right now you see a lot of talk from a wide range of people concerned about the "fringe." This is for good reason. A while ago, the Department of Homeland Security warned of rising right-wing extremism. And a whole bunch of conservatives got offended. And then some crazy showed up and shot someone at the Holocaust Museum. The report especially warned against lone wolves. Yeah, report vindicated. But I think the fact that the Glenn Becks and Michelle Bachmanns have generated so much noise, that the fringe is actually asserting itself, actually presents a strong opportunity for people like Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to take the spotlight by being minimally reasonable. In other words, by repudiating or at least dissociating themselves from the hardcore crazies, mere every-day crazy could be made to look normal and perfectly vote-for-able.
That of course depends on a number of factors, including the GOP leadership corralling its membership on board that particular Arc, which they've had trouble doing as the party split into the traditional Reagonomics camp and the more Tea Party-prone social conservative side. So the flood may not go the way Cantor says it's going to go.
What do you think the GOP's 2010 chances are?
Follow Morgan Warners on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Morgan_Warners
Cenk Uygur: How Alan Grayson and Michael Moore Changed the Conversation
Now the conversation we're having is whether the health care system leads to killing people for profit. This is an old trick of lobbyists. You change the conversation to a battle you can win.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
It would seem that the GOP would have absolutely NO chance of retaking Congress anytine in the near future, but with the way the Dems are blundering around and the constant shrill mantra of rightwing TV and radio shock jocks, it may very well happen.
the dems have to get a health care bill passed that will be the center piece for retaining seats- they can pass EFCA ,DOMA, DADT to shore up the base and then use immigration reform as wedge issue. Aghanistan could hurt because it will stress out the base but it won't help the repubs. The economy will better as the greater part of the stimulous kicks in. So national issues provide less sway so it will be less let's throw the bums out and more let's throw this bum out. Democrats retain control over both house and senate.
I can see the GOP picking up a couple of seats in the deep south but also losing a bunch in the midwest, mountains and west. Their rhetorical strategy at this point is alienating increasing segments of voters. For example, their latest ejaculations over the loss of the Olympics may play to the Know-Nothing xenophobes who make up their core but I doubt the rest of the country would see it in a positive light.
i think the GOP's 2010 chances of retaking the house are nil...they would have to retake 80% of the seats they lost in the last two cycles while holding every seat they currently have....the vast majority of those were suburban districts outside the south which the dems flipped by winning woman....if the gop can't reconnect with the kitchen table checkbook voters [and i see no way they can with their current economic non-policies] they have no shot......woman currently approve of democrats in congress over republicans by 33 points and the democratic party over the gop by 34 points
Obama supporters say he can't do what he wants with this congress. Let him try with more GOP.
GOP has good chances
If people are hurting they will oust the current leaders. Obama and Dems could mitigate this effect by helping people in need, but seem unwilling.
Some credible candidates will sieze the opportunity to run.
The GOP needs another Ronald Reagan.
Someone with a lot of charisma to make people forget what the GOP stands for... enriching the rich and starting unnecessary wars for profit.
You have got to be kidding!!!! Reagan was an absolute disaster for the Nation. Remember Don Regan, his Treasury Secretary??? Ronnie Ray-Gun appointed the former Merryll Lynch exec to this post and the rest is pretty much history. Later he appointed this insider to the post as Chief of Staff where he advanced the desires of corporations over the needs of the people. It was under Ray-Gun when the CIA was actively involved in bringing cocaine to the US as has been shown in the HBO documentary "American Drug War. The Last White Hope." Former DEA and CIA members acknowledge this in the documentary. Tax cuts for the rich and a tripling of our debt were also hallmarks of this president. And lets not forget the Iran-Contra fiasco, but I guess that does not count, after all he couldn't remember, so it must not have happened! You want more of this retrogressive nonsense????
The days of Reagan are over...move on with your lives.
When I hear the words "Ronald Reagan" I think of Trickle-Down economics and the Iran-Contra scandal.
I'll pass on cloning Mr Reagan, thank you.
The Republican party is like the Hindenburg zeppelin, slow and full of flammable gas. Their ideas are suited to another era because they don't address 21st century problems or arrive at acceptable solutions. It's really just a matter of time before they go kaboom.
Remember the Whig party??? I hope that's where the GOP is heading.
Gone Obsolete, Period
I heard that immigration reform is again going to come up for debate in Congress around the first of the year. That's sure to drive the right-wing nutjobs even farther off the deep end, which I think will hurt the Republicans even more, not just with Latinos, but with the general population as well.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
