Co-authored with Ved Pratap Vaidik and Abdul Ghaffar Mogul
The late ambassador Richard Holbrooke, President Obama's envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, had identified the connection of the Afghanistan's war with Pakistan and referred to the issue Afghan-Pak issue. However, he realized that the connection is rooted in India and wanted to extend his authority and responsibility to weave diplomacy to Afghan-Pak-India. Indeed, that is the key to ending the war in Afghanistan and withdrawing 100,000 U.S. troops that are stationed there. Vice President Biden's recent disconcerting comment in Kabul that U.S. forces will stay in Afghanistan as long as they are wanted demonstrated the confusion of the American diplomacy and caused chagrin to thousands of American families.
Pakistan is apprehensive about India's hegemonic behavior in Afghanistan and unless it is corrected it will continue to provide safe haven in its territory to Al Qaeda, and insurgent groups such as Haqqani, Hekmatyar, and Mullah Omar who have inflicted major damages to U.S. forces in Afghanistan and whose presence in Pakistan is viewed as strategic asset by Pakistan.
Pakistan's concerns emanate from India's political advances as evidenced by the fact that India has spent about $1.3 billion during the last nine years in Afghanistan, mostly on long-term projects, such as roads and dams. There are about 4,000 Indian citizens working in Afghanistan. In addition to an embassy in Kabul, India has four consulates in major cities of Afghanistan -- Kandahar, Mazar, Herat, and Jelalabad. In retaliation Pakistani-controlled insurgents have blown up the Indian embassy in Kabul, have caused death to several Indian project staff in Kabul and continues to send suicide bombers and roadside bombs inside Afghanistan.
The key to end the war in Afghanistan is to strike rapprochement between the three countries (Afghan-Paki-India) without intruding on their sovereignty. Realistically, Afghanistan has to be cognizant of Pakistan's sensitivity in this regard and do whatever to alley Pakistanis apprehension about India. The two countries have gone to war three times and their feud over Kashmir is continuing. Afghanistan would have to weigh the benefit of stopping suicide bombers and roadside bombing emanating from Pakistan in exchange for maintaining a balanced policy towards India and Pakistan. After all more than 50% of the population of Afghanistan resided in Pakistan for nearly a decade (1979-89) during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The U.S. could play a constructive diplomatic role to mend relations of the tiresome.
Moreover, Afghanistan is caught in a vicious circle: Pakistan sends suicide bombers and roadside bombs against U.S. forces, and has been intransigent. The U.S. retaliates by bombing Pashtun villages causing human and property losses while the vicious circle continues. A way must be found to break this vicious circle and respond to the higher interest of peace in the region and ending this senseless war. Rapprochement of the three countries under U.S. guidance may produce peace and may serve to make military aid to Pakistan superfluous.
Nake M. Kamrany, an Afghan-American economist, is professor of economics at USC, Abdul Ghaffar Mughal, a Pakistani-American economist, is serving in Iraq under a USAID project. Ved Pratap Vaidik is an Indian political columnist residing in New Delhi.
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Local Concern: Pakistan is said to be livid because India is involved in Afghanistan's developmental projects. Pakistan's solution is to turn to the Taliban thugs to keep peace at bay. It is the wrong solution to Pakistan's heartburn. As the leader of the free world, USA has an obligation to convince Pakistan that trade/commerce is not a zero-sum game. Pakistan too needs to get involved in Afghanistan's development projects.
Global Concern: USA went into Afghanistan because the Taliban/ Al Qaeda combine of Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden had posed an intolerable threat to USA. USA's adversaries need a change in heart or a defanging before USA can afford to withdraw from Afghanistan. If USA walks away before that, the Taliban and Al Qaeda will regroup and USA will have to fight afresh the very same war at a future date.
Here's an article by a young Pakistani researcher Farhat Taj from the University of Oslo :
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\11\13\story_13-11-2010_pg3_4
It is a real eye opener that the long suffering Pakistani civilians in the Taliban havens inside Pakistan prefer the US drones to the Pakistani Army for the task of eliminating the Taliban types in their midst.
I have also posted a recent map of Free Balochistan (from their website).
The article fails to chart a viable road map to peace because it averts acknowledging the hegemonic group that acts the villain by standing resolutely in the way of peace. I am referring to the Pakistan army which has a long torrid history of pursuing its ruthless hegemonic ambitions not just in neighboring countries but even within. The Pakistan army has monopolized power in Pakistan for most of its history and has indulged in genocide against Bengalis and Balochs even within Pakistan to maintain its hegemony.
I fail to see how India becomes "hegemonic" by participating in the construction of dams and roads. And I most certainly fail to see how Pakistan becomes anything less than "hegemonic" by trying to control Afghanistan by using the Pashtun Talibans for extending Pakistan's "strategic depth".
Pakistan was among only three nations that had recognized the Taliban government prior to 9/11. And today Pakistan continues to protect the Taliban and use it as a cat's paw to sustain its hegemonic goals in Afghanistan.
So we want to sing Khumbya and be sensitive to Pakistan, but then who is ever sympathetic or sensitive to the Indian worries and concerns? Not one sentence is written about it.
Thats the answer....
Unfortunately, he then buys into the Washington/ media conventional wisodm to the effect that there is an autonomous government in Kabul; there is not. There cannot be a legitimate government of Afghanistan until the US leaves; until then it is at best a protectorate, at worst a colony, and its people have no say in the strategy and tactics the US is currently pursuing there - which strategy and tactics are doomed to fail exactly because the political situation Prof. Kamrany describes - and others involved - are diplomatically sensitive and complex and cannot be beaten away with brute military force.
My suggestion is that the US simply comes home, then adapt our interests to whatever configuration then plays out.