Left is the New Center

Last week, the nonpartisan Pew Center released its 2009 survey on American political values. Its headline could have read "Left Wins Culture War." As the Right ramps up for a Supreme Court showdown over abortion and gay marriage, this report couldn't be more timely. It's a clarion call for Democrats to come out of the closet.

Like a host of other polls of recent months, the Pew survey shows the GOP near an all-time low. Only 22% of Americans identify as Republicans. Since partisan identification surveys began in 1929, only in the post-Watergate years have fewer Americans identified as Republicans. Only 40% view the Republican party favorably, while a majority of Americans hold an unfavorable opinion of the GOP.

But the bad news for the GOP isn't automatically good news for the Democratic party. Democrats have an 11 point advantage in party identification, but at 33%, that's down 6 points from the election day high. The problem is that many of the refugees from the GOP prefer to call themselves independents. (A plurality of independents -- 46% -- lean Democratic, giving the Democrats a 17 point advantage in party identification when leaners are taken into account.) According to Pew's top-line analysis of its survey,

Centrism has emerged as a dominant factor in public opinion as the Obama era begins. . . Republicans and Democrats are even more divided than in the past, while the growing political middle is steadfastly mixed in its beliefs about government, the free market and other values that underlie views on contemporary issues and policies.

The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past. While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector. Yet at the same time, they continue to more closely parallel the views of Democrats rather than Republicans on the most divisive core beliefs on social values, religion and national security." [emphasis added]

What are the views of the political middle on these "divisive core beliefs"? By Pew's index of social conservatism, 46% are conservative, down from 67% in 1987, the year Pew started this survey. Two-thirds of those surveyed support gay civil rights, 53% support civil unions for gays and lesbians, and while a majority of the total population still oppose gay marriage, opposition has declined by 11 points since 1996. Only 19% of those surveyed favor a return to traditional roles for women; perhaps unremarkable until one considers that 30% of Americans believed in traditionalism in 1987. Only 16% agree with the religious right that abortion should be illegal in all cases. 63% favor a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Other recent polls show even stronger public support for socially liberal positions. A recent New York Times/CBS poll found that 57% of those under age 40 support gay marriage and 22% do not identify with any religion. CNN/ Opinion Research Corporation recently found support for Roe v. Wade at an all-time high of 68%. (The one outlier, Gallup's poll on abortion, has been most effectively challenged here.)

In sum, Pew's survey suggests that Americans have fled the GOP because of its extreme positions on social issues, not because of its economic royalism. Put another way, although 60% of independents prefer the GOP position on issues of the economy and government, they can't stomach the party's reactionary social, cultural, and religious views.

So, why did Pew report this as a confirmation of Americans' centrism? Simply because the majority of those surveyed fell between the extreme right and the progressive left. Like many interpreters, Pew confuses a term about relative position -- the center -- with a philosophical disposition toward Centrism, or moderate politics. The center is crowded, indeed, but Centrism is an empty political category. Its substance changes. And, at this moment, Left is the new Center.

When we take into account the very mixed views Americans hold about progressive economic policies, the conclusion becomes obvious that Americans are turning away from the GOP and toward the Democratic party because, not in spite of, the Democrats' social liberalism.

Yet Centrist Democratic politicians continue to invoke the putative Center to derail policies tarred as "Left." (See, for example, Sen. Ben Nelson, who is holding up Dawn Johnsen's nomination and threatens to filibuster Obama's Supreme Court nominee.) This kind of obstructionism gets validation from self-defined Centrist pundits and activists, who for the past three decades have counseled Democrats to moderate their views on social and cultural issues. It gets enabled by self-defined progressive pundits and activists, who for the past two decades have counseled Democrats to soft-pedal their liberal views on social and cultural issues, so as not to alienate socially conservative economic populists.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, it looks as if the Left's much derided cultural liberalism is the key to cementing the Democrats' majority status for the coming years. Here's hoping our Democratic leaders read the fine print of the public opinion polls before this summer's Culture War blockbuster, the SCOTUS hearings, premieres.

Comments

[DaCoach]

As all polls clearly show, the vast majority of Americans cross over "so called" liberal and conservative positions. The concept that we can define a person so easily by universal terms is at the heart of thoughtlessness. As soon as a conservative issue becomes the most important factor in the independent's view, the pendulum will swing again. Elections seldom throw out the old unless it becomes abusive.

The Bush administration became arrogant and people resented their misuse of power. In time, as history has proven, the left will assume their form of arrogance and we'll be seeing a new set of polls that seemingly point to a new center to the right.

[Dolmance]

It's going to take time to make Republicans fit for human consumption, but the writing is on the wall - with nothing more than a ready smile, a kind word and a steel choke chain on the end of a leash, President Barack Obama truly is the Republican Whisperer.

[artigiano]

When polls ask people to self identify they always say (with small variations) 40% Moderate, 30% Conservative, 20% Liberal, 10% None. There is no objective means to assess what these terms actually imply. Those same percentages would have been found in surveys 10, 20, 30, or 40 years ago.

It should be obvious that the country has moved to the left the entire time on a host of issues. But the self-identification numbers never change much. That means that the current day conservative is occupying the same "ideological space" as a liberal from 25 years before. After about 40 years a current day conservative is ideologically actually far to the left of the liberal of 40 years before.

Polls will always show that we consider ourselves a center-right nation (70% of us Mod/Con). But in reality our granparents in their youth would have considered all of us firebrand liberals. And after a generation of "liberal Democratic" dominance in Washington, polls will still miraculously show that we are a "center-right" country.

Conservatives will always have the comforting illusion that they are winning because everyone says they are conservatives. Liberals will have to console themselves with the reality of the changing world they see around them. As Chico Marx said, "Hey Boss, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?"

[Querent]

I guess your concluding wish, that the Democratic leaders in Congress realize that progressive social policies are driving the expansion of the left before the Supreme Court nomination hearings, has been obviated today, since the President chose to nominate a center-right candidate. If I were a Democrat in Congress, I probably wouldn't bother to put much effort into supporting this nomination, which stands to benefit the nation only in that it is not of another Alito or Scalia.

[zepfan81]

It seems whenever one party sweeps in elections the media and politicians always see it as some sort of permanent shift and it never is. Just a few years ago the Democratic Party was declared dead, now look a mere five years later. More and more Americans are registering as independents, which means their loyalty isn't to ideology, but to competence. In other words when a party sweeps an election it's usually not as much a matter of voting for that party, but voting AGAINST the other. Americans are moving further left on social issues simply because we're becoming more educated and diverse, but we are not moving to the left on issues of economics. Why? Because we're becoming more educated hence making more money. As soon as we pass through our current economic crisis we'll go right back to our old economic ways. Americans are pragmatic, not ideological. Whoever they think has the best answer to whatever problem they are facing they will vote for. So are we becoming a liberal country? In all honesty we seem to be becoming more libertarian than anything.

[springsm]

Well if the progressives are gaining ground, be sure to inform President Obama. He hasn't even moved from the right to center yet.

[apatheticreader]

The country is becoming more leftist culturally, while we remain enthrall to crony capitalism and corporate imperialism.

So now homosexuals can marry, and we have a greater variety of neighbors. That's nice and lovely, but what about the deep structural issues that plague this country and which lie at the root of our current economic woes?

The problem is the culture wars diverted our attention away from real structural and economic change for a generation, and judging from Obama's behavior while in office, that diversion will continue.

[FoonTheElder]

Where are all these left-wing politicians? All I see in the Congress, Supreme Court and the Executive Office are bunches of center-right corporate Democrats (who pass for liberals in the MSM) or much worse Dick Cheney Republicans and Republicrats.

There aren't a dozen real liberals in an authoritative position in our federal government.

[research]

the Kucinich half of the house is all the liberal we have.

Thus the MSM war against Kucinich.

[slowtono]

The GOP does! As I read through the posted news all I see is the GOP did this, said that, and did this. Guess the GOP is the only ones doing. Thats what the centralist is about. Who's gonna do. It is becoming more obvious that the left does not even exist in Washington, because the left in Washington are elitist. They run on the rhetoric not their base belief. They realize who put them in office, big business. Who pays at the club, big business. And who is going to give them the good life, big business. Seems all we read about is what the Republicans are doing. Is that because they are of more interest to the larger portion of your readers or is because they are the only ones doing anything? I'm a Republican, I don't listen to Limbaugh, am faith only LIVING, and fully understand that big business needs to accept that they are big because of the country and people, not ANYTHING they ever did by themselves. Heard of the people aren't buying panic, well that's the centralist, just waiting to see what happens. If it goes well then thats the way they'll go but if nothing changes than they will stand up and change it.

[katmeyster]

People are only eschewing the right because they no longer think they will get rich. As long as they thought that they may one day have the American dream, they voted rich and still lived poor.

It was quite an ingenious plan: get people to vote against their own best interest, couch it in fear-mongering, and pit the poor against the poorest. This is just a temporary left/centrist time -- the right will come up with another strategy soon, or create some other fear, or make us hate each other more.

All in all, we're pretty stupid and fall for this stuff over and over again.

[jmpurser]

Too true. And you're right, there's no sign we're any smarter. They just need to bait the trap again and we'll happily fall into it again.

[Johnnie Orange]

Working people are not stupid. If they favor market-based economic policies, it isn't because they want to "get rich". They make a reasoned judgment based on their desire to have a decent job and support themselves and their families.

[katmeyster]

OK, I won't say stupid. But market-based economic policies favor those at the top of the pyramid scheme. There are always winners and losers in laissez faire -- and guess what, it's the people with the least who end up with the least. The fallacy is that all boats rise, but that ignores those that have sunk to the bottom, especially single women and minorities. So how about I change the word to ignorant. I'll save stupid for those that should know better.

[research]

The MSM will continue to paint the country and the world as right wing to demoralize the people and make the stealing of elections believable.

Kucinich won the DFA values poll by a large margin.

The country is liberal.

only 20% or so are conservative.

even fewer are actually righting, they have been duped by the Fox Rush Murdoch propaganda machine to vote against their interests.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2222993

[Clavis]

We'd be able to have a real conversation in this country where we find common ground on a host of issues, if our political discourse weren't so consistently hijacked by right-wing authoritarians who use the fecklessness and stupidity of the traditional media (and a ruthless understanding of human foibles) to turn every national conversation into a black-and-white schoolyard bully fight, complete with petty nicknames and talking points that do nothing but maintain ignorance and prevent progress.

Accusing liberals of hating America and wanting to destroy it and replace it with a socialist nightmare isn't part of any left-vs.-right discussion. It's just fearmongering tripe that needs to be condemned rather than featured on primetime.

[jmpurser]

Agreed. The democrats are still running from Newt Gingrich, terrified that he'll call them "liberal" again.

Liberals make this country and then we made it great.

[CelticMajic]

Please continue to say and reinforce this. Better yet, keep reaching for every progressive holy grail for surely you will attain them.

[middleoftheroad]

If the Dems over reach to the left, if the dollar keeps on falling, when interest rates soar and we see hyper inflation, then people will move back to the center right. If God forbid we get hit again, the care we are showing the THREE or FOUR terrorists who were water boarded will totally go away. We are still in the honeymoon of a popular President and a Democratic party feeling the power of a couple of wins in a row...It was not that long ago, I seem to remember reading about the dead democratic party. Now look. Ebbs and flows...To say conservatism is dead is just silly or it’s hubris. Just look at CA and the gay marriage ruling and the way the voters voted….IN CALIFORNIA…we are not a center left country.

[ThePeacemakers]

Midof the Road said:
" the Dems over reach to the left, if the dollar keeps on falling, when interest rates soar and we see hyper inflation, then people will move back to the center right..."

Point on. And California currently has one of the highest unemployment rates of any state. And look how they're carrying on about civil rights.
Social views and the economy are intertwined.

[bingvangorden]

You honestly believe only 3 or 4 people were waterboarded? Don't try and minimize it, it's insulting. Conservatism is on the way out for a simple reason, it's failed. The falling dollar is a result of conservative policies of the past 3 decades. People gave the conservatives a chance, they did their best but ultimately failed because their ideology is flawed. As more people are laid off, if the economy worsens it won't be liberals that will be blamed. Historically it's been liberals who get us out of these free market nightmares. Hopefully this time we've learned our lesson and when things are good again we won't be tempted to go backwards. The data clearly indicates this. The middle was to the right and the pendulum is swinging back, these ebbs and flows usually last decades, not months.

[FearlessFreep]

"To the center right" is an odd turn of phrase.

[tbone99]

Left is the new center?

. Please send Obama a telegraph