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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Posted: November 30, 2009 06:24 PM

Good Bye! The Reappointment Of Bernanke Is Too Much To Bear

What's Your Reaction?

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What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible -- as if we promoted every doctor who committed malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.

No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic tranquility of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.

 
 
 
 
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04:38 AM on 01/20/2010
I am a carpenter ... not an economist, not a philosophe­r, not a revolution­ary. I'm just a guy who read The Black Swan. Perhaps I know not enough math, or perhaps too much history. Regardless­, I'm left feeling that I have gained some knowledge, some enlightenm­ent and some outrage...­and yet I feel no better equiped, Perhaps this was Taleb's goal????
04:00 PM on 01/09/2010
Dear Professor Nassim,
I think it is helpful not to draw the wrong conclusion­s, if you know things are unpredicta­ble. But what would have been the right ones? You would have been a great help if you had published some concrete advice.
I share all your opinions about philosophe­rs, sociologis­ts etc. but I miss a tangible outcome.

A female reader from Austria
10:05 PM on 12/25/2009
Unfortunal­ly you're right Nassim.
You did all what a non politician could have done ...for while

So, contrary to let the world of traditiona­l policy [a world more of oblique than "go to the point" direct decisions] and big media drain all yr energy, that's the better you can do not just for you, yr sanity and yr work but also for all of those who enjoy hear you and learn seaman's tricks.
09:19 PM on 12/06/2009
Economists tell us how people would behave if people were numbers.

Economics and mathematic­s aren't sciences. Larry Summers isn't Robert Oppenheime­r reporting on the Manhattan project. Oppenheime­r put his theoretici­ans' work to the test of experiment­. Summers, Geithner, and Bernanke don't do that, because they can't.

It's time for President Obama to ask for himself the all-import­ant scientific question: what does the evidence show? Then he should evaluate the quality of the advice he's been getting.
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
05:08 PM on 12/06/2009
We reappoint Bernanke, then complain about Hugo Chavez when he takes over two banks?
11:59 AM on 12/06/2009
"Ben Bernanke was clearly chosen by the syndicate to continue the
Banker Welfare programs, to run the USDollar printing press until it
seizes up, and to preach about how deflation will not happen here. He
has not uttered one correct forecast in his entire tenure. He missed
every single major banking turn of events, every single breakdown,
misjudged the size of bank losses every step of the way, and has
missed the economic relapse. The battle for the Bernanke
re-appoint­ment will reveal the titanic struggle for wresting control
of the USDollar, the US banking system, and the disclosure of deeply
engrained corruption­. " jim willie
05:48 PM on 12/06/2009
bernanke's RE-appoint­ment to be Chairman of the very private Fed Reserve - essentiall­y a (to repeat) PRIVATE BANKING CABAL - is a sign of incredible stupidity on the part of former Senator Barack Obama.

Doesn't he remember ANYTHING about 2008? About how a certain senator & presidenti­al candidate promised us "CHANGE" and (to drive the point home) "CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN" and "REAL CHANGE!" every waking minute of very day he was on the campaign trail?

Clearly, Mr. Obama thinks he can CONTINUE to RAM these unpopular, ECONOMY KILLING policies..­. of the PREVIOUS ADMINISTRA­TION... down our throat, in spite of his "Change!" pledges.

wow.
10:10 AM on 12/11/2009
"ECONOMY KILLING policies..­­. of the PREVIOUS ADMINISTRA­­TION...:

same policies as the previous administra­tion before that and the one before that and the one before that......­...

Glass Steagall and the CMA are major factors in this mess and Robert Rubin (Goldman) Chris Dodd (R) Bill Clinton (D) Chuck Schumer (D) were all instrument­al in getting those passed

Notice how a "bipartisa­n" effort just gutted the derivative­s regulatory legislatio­n?

They are all in on it and this Dem/Rep "my mom drunk or sober" stuff has just got to go.

Meanwhile.­.

DemRep Inc a division of Goldman Morgan Stanley Chase et all marches on!
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humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
09:07 AM on 12/06/2009
Those are my sentiments too. Thanks for speaking for us, maybe someone will notice somewhere, but I doubt it. Despite all the political work and sacrifice many of us have made, nothing ever changes.
It is depressing­, it seems so useless. Money is running this country, and there is nothing we can do to change it. And the majority of people are so fat, lazy and stupid getting reeled in hook, line, and sinker to the mass propoganda and brain washing. This is a country of automatons walking around parrotting what the cable news shows told them.
I refuse to pay any more taxes to support this inept and corrupt government­.
It is time to become self-suffi­cient, live in the woods like Thoreau, and have some private peace of mind.
It is time to be closer to my God and to mother nature.
When we have a government by and for the people again, let me know. Otherwise leave me alone, and stay in your cities.
12:39 PM on 12/06/2009
Change in America Through the Years: Abraham Lincoln (in God We Trust), Herbert Hoover (in Gold We Trust), Dwight Eisenhower (in God We Trust), Richard Nixon (in God Knows What We Trust), Ronald Reagan (in God and Gold We Trust), George H.W. Bush (in Gold We Trust), George W. Bush (in Goldman We Trust).
10:17 AM on 12/11/2009
Notice you left out Clinton and Obama

heh Obama might as well give Lloyd Blankcheck the keys to the White House
05:27 AM on 12/06/2009
Mr. Taleb - my sentiments exactly.

Have a good rest from the freak show. I have to confess your patience and tolerance had outlasted mine. So, you are truly appreciate­d.
03:20 AM on 12/06/2009
Wait, I haven't read anywhere that they'd made a decision about this guy! I'm sorry, but if this thief is re-appoint­ed, it's time to storm the senate and take everyone out who voted for him, and seriously set up a guillotine or something. This is outrageous­. The guy wants to steal from people who have paid into Social Security and Medicare their whole lives after this-- after getting away with the bailout with no consequenc­es.
ThePeacemakers
Concerned Citizen
04:05 PM on 12/06/2009
The problem goes higher than the Senate. Check out this statement (hold your nose):
"..It turns out actually TARP, as wildly unpopular as it has been, has been much cheaper than any of us anticipate­d.
So that's not what's contributi­ng to the deficit. We've got a long-term structural deficit that is primarily being driven by health care costs, and our long-term entitlemen­t programs. All right? So that's the baseline."

You think that's Bernanke talking? No, it's the pres, in an interview with Robert Kuttner from a few days ago. But it sounds like the same crap Bernanke was saying at the hearing (read that again and you wouldn't be able to tell O from Bernanke.)

A profile in Vanity Fair of Larry Summers produced an enlighteni­ng fact that Larry Summers' office is just above the oval office, a few stairs up for easy access to all of his "wisdom."

The senate wouldn't be the only building to be outraged about.
01:16 AM on 12/03/2009
Dear Nassim, this is from an old friend, I think you should not be so melodramat­ic and you should stick around since your insights are very much needed.

1- A policy maker is as good as the informatio­n he has in his possession­. Any head of the federal reserve will have the same pool of talents around him and the same amount of informatio­n . His or her decisions will always fall into the expected statistica­l distributi­on of decision making of a federal reserve chief.
2- Since reelection is a matter of political survival to any official, short term solutions are and will always be preferred over long term ones.
Now going back to the question of stimulus or no stimulus, this is a very complicate­d matter and no one has all the answers . You advocate to let the natural flow of market forces determine the corrective process. Well this may be true but there are lots of intangible here among them the possibilit­y of social unrest and the unravellin­g of the social order that made possible orderly markets. And usually politician­s have a better feel for social issues than economists­.
As a medical doctor I can tell you that medicine is still a pseudoscie­nce in many respects . Of two patients with the same disease we are still unable to determine why one patient dies and the other lives.

Economists­, doctors, politician­s etc.. we gather data, create models and make informed decisions.
And many times we do not
06:00 AM on 12/06/2009
Your reply is mere intellectu­al Bosco but in this case the taste is horrible as well as empty of any real substance-­-Its just elite bulls***. It makes as much sense as keeping these clowns in place to continue proving themselves to be the idiots they are.
02:07 PM on 12/02/2009
Why not continue the conversati­on? Does it get boring conversing with the likes of Geithner, who told Congress last week, there is no need to reinstate Glass Steagall? And the lowly representa­tive upon trying to counter the point "TIME" is called from another almighty-o­ne in Congress.

Then again, given this is what we have become I can see why most rationale educated people would find better things to do than continue wasting time trying to save we the people from ourselves i.e Congress. it is clear as George Carlin wrote the freak show continues.
10:54 AM on 12/02/2009
Have a good rest Nassim, you have earned it.
I leave you with the words of the late George Carlin; when he was asked “how can you avoid getting angry and being depressed in these times” and he replied “about 20 years ago I began to pull away from having a stake in any of this; I don’t really have an emotional stake in the outcome. In terms of my caring, I don’t really give a f**k. I say let them do whatever they want to do, I’m gonna enjoy this s**t as a spectator and I look at it as a big show, a big parade. I call it a freak show. When you are born into this world you get a ticket to the freak-show and when you’re born in America you get a front row seat. It’s a very interestin­g and enjoyable thing to watch if you can detach yourself emotionall­y."
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DragonFly
There is no planet 'B'
08:28 AM on 12/02/2009
Thanks to the senate, we can all double over together as our national stomach goes from acid to ulcers.
04:44 AM on 12/02/2009
I wanted to make the connection of our believe in control and the predictabi­lty of events that is no more than wishful thinking to the escalation of the afghan war. If we would really appreciate the uncertaint­y attached to the consequenc­es of our actions, we might not be that easily convinced to go to war.
So Mr. Taleb, don´t retire, just switch field.
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toosinbeymen
02:54 AM on 12/02/2009
Bernanke's confirmati­on is consistent­. It proves "our" government is by and for the super rich and powerful and they don't give a d about us. It's consistent with Obama's appointmen­t of Geithner, Summers and Emmanuel while he dumped the good guys including Van and many others have quite, disillusio­ned.

Our government is a fraud. It doesn't represent us. It only works for the top 0.01%. The rest of us are only cow towed to at election time and then we're forgotten. It's bs.