What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible -- as if we promoted every doctor who committed malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.
No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic tranquility of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.
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I think it is helpful not to draw the wrong conclusions, if you know things are unpredictable. But what would have been the right ones? You would have been a great help if you had published some concrete advice.
I share all your opinions about philosophers, sociologists etc. but I miss a tangible outcome.
A female reader from Austria
You did all what a non politician could have done ...for while
So, contrary to let the world of traditional policy [a world more of oblique than "go to the point" direct decisions] and big media drain all yr energy, that's the better you can do not just for you, yr sanity and yr work but also for all of those who enjoy hear you and learn seaman's tricks.
Economics and mathematics aren't sciences. Larry Summers isn't Robert Oppenheimer reporting on the Manhattan project. Oppenheimer put his theoreticians' work to the test of experiment. Summers, Geithner, and Bernanke don't do that, because they can't.
It's time for President Obama to ask for himself the all-important scientific question: what does the evidence show? Then he should evaluate the quality of the advice he's been getting.
Banker Welfare programs, to run the USDollar printing press until it
seizes up, and to preach about how deflation will not happen here. He
has not uttered one correct forecast in his entire tenure. He missed
every single major banking turn of events, every single breakdown,
misjudged the size of bank losses every step of the way, and has
missed the economic relapse. The battle for the Bernanke
re-appointment will reveal the titanic struggle for wresting control
of the USDollar, the US banking system, and the disclosure of deeply
engrained corruption. " jim willie
Doesn't he remember ANYTHING about 2008? About how a certain senator & presidential candidate promised us "CHANGE" and (to drive the point home) "CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN" and "REAL CHANGE!" every waking minute of very day he was on the campaign trail?
Clearly, Mr. Obama thinks he can CONTINUE to RAM these unpopular, ECONOMY KILLING policies..
wow.
same policies as the previous administration before that and the one before that and the one before that......
Glass Steagall and the CMA are major factors in this mess and Robert Rubin (Goldman) Chris Dodd (R) Bill Clinton (D) Chuck Schumer (D) were all instrumental in getting those passed
Notice how a "bipartisan" effort just gutted the derivatives regulatory legislation?
They are all in on it and this Dem/Rep "my mom drunk or sober" stuff has just got to go.
Meanwhile.
DemRep Inc a division of Goldman Morgan Stanley Chase et all marches on!
It is depressing, it seems so useless. Money is running this country, and there is nothing we can do to change it. And the majority of people are so fat, lazy and stupid getting reeled in hook, line, and sinker to the mass propoganda and brain washing. This is a country of automatons walking around parrotting what the cable news shows told them.
I refuse to pay any more taxes to support this inept and corrupt government.
It is time to become self-sufficient, live in the woods like Thoreau, and have some private peace of mind.
It is time to be closer to my God and to mother nature.
When we have a government by and for the people again, let me know. Otherwise leave me alone, and stay in your cities.
heh Obama might as well give Lloyd Blankcheck the keys to the White House
Have a good rest from the freak show. I have to confess your patience and tolerance had outlasted mine. So, you are truly appreciated.
"..It turns out actually TARP, as wildly unpopular as it has been, has been much cheaper than any of us anticipated.
So that's not what's contributing to the deficit. We've got a long-term structural deficit that is primarily being driven by health care costs, and our long-term entitlement programs. All right? So that's the baseline."
You think that's Bernanke talking? No, it's the pres, in an interview with Robert Kuttner from a few days ago. But it sounds like the same crap Bernanke was saying at the hearing (read that again and you wouldn't be able to tell O from Bernanke.)
A profile in Vanity Fair of Larry Summers produced an enlightening fact that Larry Summers' office is just above the oval office, a few stairs up for easy access to all of his "wisdom."
The senate wouldn't be the only building to be outraged about.
1- A policy maker is as good as the information he has in his possession. Any head of the federal reserve will have the same pool of talents around him and the same amount of information . His or her decisions will always fall into the expected statistical distribution of decision making of a federal reserve chief.
2- Since reelection is a matter of political survival to any official, short term solutions are and will always be preferred over long term ones.
Now going back to the question of stimulus or no stimulus, this is a very complicated matter and no one has all the answers . You advocate to let the natural flow of market forces determine the corrective process. Well this may be true but there are lots of intangible here among them the possibility of social unrest and the unravelling of the social order that made possible orderly markets. And usually politicians have a better feel for social issues than economists.
As a medical doctor I can tell you that medicine is still a pseudoscience in many respects . Of two patients with the same disease we are still unable to determine why one patient dies and the other lives.
Economists, doctors, politicians etc.. we gather data, create models and make informed decisions.
And many times we do not
Then again, given this is what we have become I can see why most rationale educated people would find better things to do than continue wasting time trying to save we the people from ourselves i.e Congress. it is clear as George Carlin wrote the freak show continues.
I leave you with the words of the late George Carlin; when he was asked “how can you avoid getting angry and being depressed in these times” and he replied “about 20 years ago I began to pull away from having a stake in any of this; I don’t really have an emotional stake in the outcome. In terms of my caring, I don’t really give a f**k. I say let them do whatever they want to do, I’m gonna enjoy this s**t as a spectator and I look at it as a big show, a big parade. I call it a freak show. When you are born into this world you get a ticket to the freak-show and when you’re born in America you get a front row seat. It’s a very interesting and enjoyable thing to watch if you can detach yourself emotionall
So Mr. Taleb, don´t retire, just switch field.
Our government is a fraud. It doesn't represent us. It only works for the top 0.01%. The rest of us are only cow towed to at election time and then we're forgotten. It's bs.