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Brzezinski: Russia's Invasion of Georgia Is Reminiscent of Stalin's Attack on Finland
On Sunday I talked with Zbigniew Brzezinski, the elder statesman who was national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, about the Russian invasion of Georgia. He long tangled with Soviet power. Now he takes on Putin:
Nathan Gardels: What is the world to make of Russia's invasion of Georgia?
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Fundamentally at stake is what kind of role Russia will play in the new international system. Unfortunately, Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalin's and Hitler's in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putin's "justification" for dismembering Georgia -- because of the Russians in South Ossetia -- to Hitler's tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to "free" the Sudeten Deutsch.
Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day
The question the international community now confronts is how to respond to a Russia that engages in the blatant use of force with larger imperial designs in mind: to reintegrate the former Soviet space under the Kremlin's control and to cut Western access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia by gaining control over the Baku/ Ceyhan pipeline that runs through Georgia.
In brief, the stakes are very significant. At stake is access to oil as that resource grows ever more scarce and expensive and how a major power conducts itself in our newly interdepedent world, conduct that should be based on accommodation and consensus, not on brute force.
If Georgia is subverted, not only will the West be cut off from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. We can logically anticipate that Putin, if not resisted, will use the same tactics toward the Ukraine. Putin has already made public threats against Ukraine.
Gardels: What, if anything, can the West do to contain this revived Russian behavior?
Brzezinski: Not only the West, but the rest of the international community, must make it clear that this kind of behavior will result in ostracism and economic and financial penalties. Ultimately, if Russia continues on this course, it must face isolation in the international community -- a longer range risk to its own well-being.
The United States, particularly, shoulders the major burden of mobilizing an collective international response. This invasion of Georgia by Russia is a very sad commentary on eight years of self-delusion in the White House regarding Putin and his regime. Two memorable comments stand out. First, when Bush first met Putin and said he looked into his soul and could trust him. Second, not long ago, Condi Rice claimed that American relations with Russia have never been better in history!
Gardels: John McCain has already suggested that Russia be expelled from the G8. Is that something you would contemplate?
Brzezinski: The G8 is an impotent fiction anyway. But It has to be much more than
that. It has to be a concerted effort on all levels -- at the United Nations, in the Atlantic Council, in the EU or in NATO, in consultation with the Japanese, the Chinese and others -- to convey to Russia that, whatever grievances it may have, it cannot resolve them by a deliberate policy of dismembering an adjoining state and
trying to obtain political domination over it.
Gardels: Is the West obliged to help Georgia resist the Russian attack with some kind of military support?
Brzezinski: The question is not what obligation the West may have at the moment. The question is about our longer term interest. If a Russia, which misjudges its power and its capacities embarks now on a blatantly nationalistic and imperialistic course, we will all suffer.
Therefore it is all the more important that Russia be stopped now by mobilizing a concerted, global effort to oppose and condemn the Russian invasion. Ultimately, that could lead to economic and financial sanctions, though one would hope that other Russian leaders, including its business elite, will have cooler heads and be more aware of Russia's own vulnerabilities. Russia is not ready to sustain a new cold war.
Gardels: Should the Atlantic Alliance urgently induct Georgia into NATO as one response?
Brzezinski: The West desisted from extending the NATO "membership action plan" to Georgia -- a preparatory stage for becoming a member -- out of deference to Russian objections. It is now clear that the deference shown to Putin, in the face of his obvious ambitions, has been counterproductive. In view of what has happened, NATO ought to extend the membership action plan to Georgia, therefore reinforcing the commitment NATO made in Bucharest last March
to the effect that NATO intends, at some future point, to include Georgia.
Gardels: You haven't mentioned Dmitri Medvedev, the the Russian president, once, but only Putin. Does Medvedev have any function in this?
Brzezinski: As much to do with it as the formal head of state of the Soviet Union in 1950 had to do with the running of the Soviet government. Does anyone remember his name? But the real ruler of the Soviet Union had a name that most still remember -- and it rhymes with Putin.....
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There is a difference between Georgia & Finland that should not be overlooked - the Finns humilated the Russkies. Without getting too involved how would the US respond if Russia interfered in its' back yard? Oh! remember now! it was the Cuban missle crisis - Now that was scary.
By the way all, time to REALLY start worrying. I read on a news ticker tonite that Cheney was on his way to Republic of Georgia this week! It just seems like human misery follows in that man's path as if he was one of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse!
I don't think Finland is relevant to this discussion. Russia is exerting power over Georgia because (1) they want to curtail the oil flow through the country and (2) in retailiation for the perceived "wrongs" against Russia to include putting missiles in Poland and arming the Georgians obviously to fend off Russia. Imagine if next they decide to put missles in Cuba again or to arm the Cubans or drive into the Ukraine? ^There is still a chance to pull this thing out if we can use diplomacy and not diplomatic retaliation. We have to face it: In the end there is not much we can do to threaten Russia or to stop them if they want to take over Georgia, unless you want a war. The problem with this approach, of course, is the war mongers will call it appeasement. But there is something we can trade with them. Just be careful it does not give away too much, like Georgia. Saving Georgia will demand some kind of accommodation.
Yeah, actually Georgia invaded--- South Ossetia.
But the spin from the U.S. is, as usual, full of distortions and twisted. Imagine if Russia got involved in sending troops to a dispute we had with canada or mexico.
It is all outrageous-- but the media spins it and everyone just bobs their heads. da, da.
And these revolutions that we pump so much into promoting... all about places that are strategic when it comes to resources. rose revolution, orange revolution, cedar revolution- oh wasn't that the BMW revolution?
Can someone please explain why the narrative now is that Russia invaded Georgia as though Russian aggression was the instigation of this incident?
What are you talking about? I think you are mistaken.
Oceania has ALWAYS been at war with Eurasia!
they may not have started it but they have used this incident to advance their interests and the loss of Geogia's and the West's.
What are you talking about?
"Oceania has ALWAYS been at war with Eurasia!"- Orwell, 1984
Has anyone noticed that the media have slightly washed away the fact that Georgia attacked and killed Russian citizens first, the primary instigation for this conflict?
Well, Zbig certainly has me worried now. Putin is Stalin eh? And here I thought Putin's party United Russia was a centrist party that filled the Russian political landscape between the libertarians and the Communists. Which would make Putin the Russian version of a Republicrat.
I guess now that the spectre of Stalinism has been raised, it's only a matter of time before the GULag comes back and millions of Russian voters end up in mass graves.
Zbig is a liberal hawk. This guy has an itchy trigger finger. America needs to stay the hell out of other country's affairs. We should not be the policemen of the world. That's so f'ing arrogant.
There's no need for buffer states in the West. NATO doesn't have the manpower to invade Russia by land. The Satellites were a drain to their economy.
The Caucuses and Central Asia are only important to the Bear because of their Oil and Gas Reserves and transport routes to the Black Sea, they will fight for them if need be; don't push them there unless you're ready for a fight.
Missiles in Poland can be countered by Sub Missiles off our coasts and landing rights for long range bombers in Cuba and/or Venezuela.
They can project power in Iran and Syria( Indian Ocean and Med Lake ).
They got bucks and no debt.
Putin will be PM for a good long while and is very, very popular( Russians like strong, decissive leaders ).
We better use Diplomacy unless we're ready to Rock'n Roll with them.
What is it you think Russia can do to the United States?
I would really like to know. There is no comparison between
the military power of Russia and the United States.
What do you think they could do to us? Stop vodka shipments?? Caviar?
Missiles over the North Pole? Invasion? What???
We are bogged down in Iraq because the mission is to OCCUPY Iraq, not
conquer it. That would not be the same with Russia. It would be a total war, utter
devastation. You really think Vlad wants to go there??
Well, since you asked. Russia could take over the Ukraine and Georgia and could arm Cuba or Venezuela , cut off oil and gas to europe or any number of nasty things like that. What would you do? Invade them??
Hey Nate, I see my post is up--in pieces--but up none the less. Thanks, baby.
Geostrategically Stalin's 1939 and Putin's 2008 thinking are amazingly similar. The core message sent to the world is: I am the new strongman and this is my territory where I do what I please. But the problem is that there is not enough time between now and Stalin's era for the small nations or anybody to forget what Russian dominance means. While his armies were struggling to invade Finland, Stalin's NKVD forces were at their peak efficiency in liquidating Ukrainians in the millions, exterminating ethnic Finns in the Carelian Soviet Republic lead by Gylling, absorbing east of Poland, pressing the Baltic states to submission etc. The Balts thought one can be reasonable with the Russians and negotiate from a position of weakness. The skull of the Estonian President with a bullet hole in it was found in an unmarked grave in Russia 50 years later.
Putin is no Stalin yet, but some early signs from Chechnya are indicative what would happen if Putin's values and not those of the U.S. would dominate. People may think the late KGB agent Litvinenko exaggerated when describing his colleague Putin but these early warnings may have been more accurate than most of us are ready to accept.
Which particular US values do you refer to? Those that lead us to invade and occupy Iraq, with at least 40,000 U.S. casualties and no one knows how many Iraqi's killed and wounded - because being Arabs, we don't count them? There is a strange American blindness, we can see the faults of others, but not our own. And for my moral education, could you please explain to me the moral difference between Stalin invading Finland and Bush invading Iraq. As for Chechnya, we seemed to be supporting Putin at the time because he was fighting the "War on Terror" against Muslim separatists, but then I could be wrong on that.
Let me draw you the picture. There indeed is a strange American blindness in the belief that liberty is a non-negotiable value that beats the mental and physical Gulag reserved for the countless people and peoples under the Russian values. For making it less than academic, I have to thank the NKVD who executed my great grandfather in the Lyubyanka prison, and adequately showed for many others in my family what the true Russian values are. Even younger Democratic Americans like me contribute to the collective, rather detailed memory, a memory that forms the resolve to keep America the strongest defender of the free, be it a McCain or Obama Nation.
Iraq does not put us on the same moral plane as Russia/the Soviet Union.
Iraq is a terrible mistake that America will be correcting in January.
Nothing America has ever done equates to the Gulag or the systematic
execution of political enemies that Uncle Joe Stalin did to the tune of
25 million.
Those of you who think everyone is morally the same are making a terrible
mistake.
I am sure Poland and indeed all of Eastern Europe have more cause to fear
the KGB operative Vlad the Impaler than the United States.
Unless of course they now regret the wall coming down..........................
I would suspect that the Russian people, still caught up in a materialist
frenzy, will not be willing to re-create the Soviet Union just because the Impaler
says so.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, one of the founders of the Trilateral Commission and New World Order proponent along with Rockefeller and the Bush Family.
I've always wondered why Putin didn't just kill Litvinenko when he had him in custody in a Russian prison. He could have done it then and there wouldn't have been any publicity at all.
I think it's pretty interesting that Litvineno was poisoned only a week or two after visiting Leonid Nevzlin in Israel.
Livinenko isn't the first person who was killed after doing business with Nevzlin.
Alexei Pichugin, Nevzlin's former head of security, is serving life in prison for the murders of about three or four others.
FYI.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, in his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard, “American Primacy and its Geo-strategic Imperatives,” argues that America’s chief task is to maintain its “global primacy” over all of Eurasia, a vast area stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, and, “to make certain that no state or combination of states gains the capacity to expel the United States from Eurasia or even to diminish significantly its decisive arbitrating role.”
The idea that the United States has the power and financial resources to control what happens over the entire Eurasian continent is dangerously delusional, but is typical of the many Euro-centered experts who have dominated our foreign policy debate since the end of WWII. Unfortunately, current US strategic doctrine is based on these misguided concepts. Trying to realize such grandiose ambitions takes us ever closer to confrontation and amplifies the chances of a major war, something the neocons seem intent of provoking.
He would have us believe that it is about "If a Russia, which misjudges its power and its capacities embarks now on a blatantly nationalistic and imperialistic course..." As though that is not exactly what the US has done in the middle east and that somehow this "threat" translates into a call to action for America-and of course America's young soldiers-to go and fight and die for the Bankers that he represents.
I don't think there's any reason to compare Finland with Georgia, I believe the motivation in both cases were for entirely different reasons. There has been a lot of western talk about Georgia and Georgians, but what about Abkhazians and South Ossetians, why has no interest in their ambitions or plight been mentioned? Could it be they are not prepared to embrace American ideals as are the Georgians?
It seems to me that the covert invaders are the Americans as seen in Poland, selling defense shields systems that do not work, and probably intent on selling the same to Georgia. On this theme, I believe Russia were drawing a line in the sand for America and its allies, this far and no further!
It seems that America is attempting to invade the world with the intent of eventual world domination, the much talked about New World Order. I don't think Russia or China and a few others are going to want any USA boot on their neck! November shall be a defining month for America and the world, the next President shall be critical for the future of mankind.
This "war" is another is a long list of distractions created by the elites to keep the people off balance, afraid, and suspicious. While the members of the G8 that he laughingly dismisses, continue the work of establishing a one world government.
"Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day."
I find that statement, and comparison, to be morally offensive. I am actually shocked that Brzezinski seems to know so little about the Finland-Russia wars. For starters, the 1939 Winter War was a planned and calculated military offensive by Russia against Finland AFTER the Russians and Germans made their pact, planning to carve up Scandinavia between themselves. Germany wanted Norway, Russians wanted Finland. The Germans would be on the other side of Sweden, with Sweden between a rock and a hard place it's not surprising they stayed neutral through the war. Russia was also carpet bombing all the Finland cities. And even with massive advantages on the ground and air, Russia lost ground in the Winter War and had to call it off. The later "Continuation War" which broke out in 1941, after the Russians switch from Axis to Allied, amazingly, the Russians figured the US and UK would support them in their taking of Finland. This very nearly fractured the Allies as the US stood with Finland, Churchill stood with Russia. In the end, Finland had to cede back the regions they had fairly won in the 1939 war, in order to achieve a lasting peace in 1944.
And why is it that America should take the lead role in enforcing the law all around the world that we ourselves so willingly break? Well, he never does answer that, does he?
I sort of know what the answer to your question will be but the fact is we no longer have the power. I kinda think Russia knows that as do China and a few others in the world.
This discussion here about Finish history has been a bit shallow. It is interesting comparison and it may be more valid than it seems. Let me write a brief background of the war between Finland and Soviet Union.
Prior to Finland's independence from Russian empire (before Stalin got power), the Germany was secretly training Finish solders in order to cause trouble in the Russian empire. However these solders never got to fight for Finland's independence because of the Russian revolution. Unfortunately at the same time the Finish worker's did have a mutiny against Finish regime in power and Germany took a military action in Finland in order conquest the mutiny and it enabled to develop democracy to Finland (and solidify independency from Russia). So, the Germany won that game. However when Hitler and Stalin came in power, they made secret agreement to divide Eastern Europe which mandated Finland to Stalin. But it was not so easy for Stalin, he could only take eastern part of Finland (so Stalin has never occupied whole Finland).
The problem with comparison is that we do not know what is really happening in Georgia. I think this is just a cruel game of the alpha males. May be the Russia and US have a secret agreement to divide Georgia.
Like Finland? Maybe, except for the fact that the Finnish slaughtered the Russian attackers en masse during their winter counteroffensive. They were only overwhelmed by the sheer size of the Red Army when the snows finally melted.
As opposed to the Georgians who initiated the conflict, whose military was in staggering retreat from the first few hours of the Russian counteroffensive and is now effectively gone as a fighting force.
Also, Russian objectives in Georgia were achieved in the first few days: destroy Georgia's ability to fight, the de facto annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and demonstrate to the West that certain red lines will no longer be crossed without consequences.
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