On Sunday I talked with Zbigniew Brzezinski, the elder statesman who was national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, about the Russian invasion of Georgia. He long tangled with Soviet power. Now he takes on Putin:
Nathan Gardels: What is the world to make of Russia's invasion of Georgia?
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Fundamentally at stake is what kind of role Russia will play in the new international system. Unfortunately, Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalin's and Hitler's in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putin's "justification" for dismembering Georgia -- because of the Russians in South Ossetia -- to Hitler's tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to "free" the Sudeten Deutsch.
Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day
The question the international community now confronts is how to respond to a Russia that engages in the blatant use of force with larger imperial designs in mind: to reintegrate the former Soviet space under the Kremlin's control and to cut Western access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia by gaining control over the Baku/ Ceyhan pipeline that runs through Georgia.
In brief, the stakes are very significant. At stake is access to oil as that resource grows ever more scarce and expensive and how a major power conducts itself in our newly interdepedent world, conduct that should be based on accommodation and consensus, not on brute force.
If Georgia is subverted, not only will the West be cut off from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. We can logically anticipate that Putin, if not resisted, will use the same tactics toward the Ukraine. Putin has already made public threats against Ukraine.
Gardels: What, if anything, can the West do to contain this revived Russian behavior?
Brzezinski: Not only the West, but the rest of the international community, must make it clear that this kind of behavior will result in ostracism and economic and financial penalties. Ultimately, if Russia continues on this course, it must face isolation in the international community -- a longer range risk to its own well-being.
The United States, particularly, shoulders the major burden of mobilizing an collective international response. This invasion of Georgia by Russia is a very sad commentary on eight years of self-delusion in the White House regarding Putin and his regime. Two memorable comments stand out. First, when Bush first met Putin and said he looked into his soul and could trust him. Second, not long ago, Condi Rice claimed that American relations with Russia have never been better in history!
Gardels: John McCain has already suggested that Russia be expelled from the G8. Is that something you would contemplate?
Brzezinski: The G8 is an impotent fiction anyway. But It has to be much more than
that. It has to be a concerted effort on all levels -- at the United Nations, in the Atlantic Council, in the EU or in NATO, in consultation with the Japanese, the Chinese and others -- to convey to Russia that, whatever grievances it may have, it cannot resolve them by a deliberate policy of dismembering an adjoining state and
trying to obtain political domination over it.
Gardels: Is the West obliged to help Georgia resist the Russian attack with some kind of military support?
Brzezinski: The question is not what obligation the West may have at the moment. The question is about our longer term interest. If a Russia, which misjudges its power and its capacities embarks now on a blatantly nationalistic and imperialistic course, we will all suffer.
Therefore it is all the more important that Russia be stopped now by mobilizing a concerted, global effort to oppose and condemn the Russian invasion. Ultimately, that could lead to economic and financial sanctions, though one would hope that other Russian leaders, including its business elite, will have cooler heads and be more aware of Russia's own vulnerabilities. Russia is not ready to sustain a new cold war.
Gardels: Should the Atlantic Alliance urgently induct Georgia into NATO as one response?
Brzezinski: The West desisted from extending the NATO "membership action plan" to Georgia -- a preparatory stage for becoming a member -- out of deference to Russian objections. It is now clear that the deference shown to Putin, in the face of his obvious ambitions, has been counterproductive. In view of what has happened, NATO ought to extend the membership action plan to Georgia, therefore reinforcing the commitment NATO made in Bucharest last March
to the effect that NATO intends, at some future point, to include Georgia.
Gardels: You haven't mentioned Dmitri Medvedev, the the Russian president, once, but only Putin. Does Medvedev have any function in this?
Brzezinski: As much to do with it as the formal head of state of the Soviet Union in 1950 had to do with the running of the Soviet government. Does anyone remember his name? But the real ruler of the Soviet Union had a name that most still remember -- and it rhymes with Putin.....
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But the spin from the U.S. is, as usual, full of distortion
It is all outrageous
And these revolution
Oceania has ALWAYS been at war with Eurasia!
I guess now that the spectre of Stalinism has been raised, it's only a matter of time before the GULag comes back and millions of Russian voters end up in mass graves.
The Caucuses and Central Asia are only important to the Bear because of their Oil and Gas Reserves and transport routes to the Black Sea, they will fight for them if need be; don't push them there unless you're ready for a fight.
Missiles in Poland can be countered by Sub Missiles off our coasts and landing rights for long range bombers in Cuba and/or Venezuela.
They can project power in Iran and Syria( Indian Ocean and Med Lake ).
They got bucks and no debt.
Putin will be PM for a good long while and is very, very popular( Russians like strong, decissive leaders ).
We better use Diplomacy unless we're ready to Rock'n Roll with them.
I would really like to know. There is no comparison between
the military power of Russia and the United States.
What do you think they could do to us? Stop vodka shipments?
Missiles over the North Pole? Invasion? What???
We are bogged down in Iraq because the mission is to OCCUPY Iraq, not
conquer it. That would not be the same with Russia. It would be a total war, utter
devastatio
Putin is no Stalin yet, but some early signs from Chechnya are indicative what would happen if Putin's values and not those of the U.S. would dominate. People may think the late KGB agent Litvinenko exaggerate
Iraq is a terrible mistake that America will be correcting in January.
Nothing America has ever done equates to the Gulag or the systematic
execution of political enemies that Uncle Joe Stalin did to the tune of
25 million.
Those of you who think everyone is morally the same are making a terrible
mistake.
I am sure Poland and indeed all of Eastern Europe have more cause to fear
the KGB operative Vlad the Impaler than the United States.
Unless of course they now regret the wall coming down......
I would suspect that the Russian people, still caught up in a materialis
frenzy, will not be willing to re-create the Soviet Union just because the Impaler
says so.
The idea that the United States has the power and financial resources to control what happens over the entire Eurasian continent is dangerousl
It seems to me that the covert invaders are the Americans as seen in Poland, selling defense shields systems that do not work, and probably intent on selling the same to Georgia. On this theme, I believe Russia were drawing a line in the sand for America and its allies, this far and no further!
It seems that America is attempting to invade the world with the intent of eventual world domination
I find that statement, and comparison
Prior to Finland's independen
The problem with comparison is that we do not know what is really happening in Georgia. I think this is just a cruel game of the alpha males. May be the Russia and US have a secret agreement to divide Georgia.
As opposed to the Georgians who initiated the conflict, whose military was in staggering retreat from the first few hours of the Russian counteroff
Also, Russian objectives in Georgia were achieved in the first few days: destroy Georgia's ability to fight, the de facto annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and demonstrat