China's Earthquake Casualties: Victims of Too-Rapid Growth?

To anyone who has lived through a strong earthquake, as I have here in California, the first thought that goes out to the Chinese in Sichuan province is one of great sympathy and sorrow. One moment your world is intact, and then, out of the blue, everything is in pieces. After a few minutes of complete existential terror all sense of security and stability evaporates. Without any of the normal buffers of civilization, you are face to face with brutal nature.

For at least a year after the 6.7 Northridge quake in 1994 -- lasting only a few seconds, it sounded and felt like a 747 landed in our hallway -- my wife and I made our two young children sleep in our room instead of in their own rooms at the other end of the house. For long after, a truck rumbling by on the street, or a rattling window, was enough to stir fear down to our bones.

In the 1994 California quake -- of far lesser magnitude than the 7.8 Chinese quake but still quite serious -- about 70 people died, probably half from heart attacks. In Sichuan province, 15,000 have so far been confirmed dead; 25,000 are still missing in the rubble.

California's quakes have caused less damage -- so far -- because, by and large, increasingly strict building codes have been adhered too and enforced over the years. In the case of Sichuan province, the extensive damage is no doubt due not only to the magnitude of the quake and the age of many buildings built of brick, but to the shoddy quality of the newer structures built during the rapid development China has experienced over the last 20 years. This seems to have particularly been the case with the schools.

Since the Chinese authorities seems to be practicing more glasnost with respect to the Sichuan quake than any previous natural or manmade disaster, we'll probably know the facts down the road a bit. But anyone who goes regularly to China can't but wonder whether there is a very strong link between the quickest pace of economic growth in history and buildings which go up too fast to stand the test of time and nature.

The New York Times reports this morning (May 15) that local residents of Dujiangyan, in the heart of the quake zone, are angrily calling for an investigation into why government buildings
remained standing while schools didn't. One man told the NYTs that two additional stories had been added to the Xinjian school even though it had failed a safety inspection two years ago.

Speaking about the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone near Hong Kong, which went in one decade from a fishing village of 30,000 people to a metropolis of 3.5 million, Deng Xiaoping, godfather of modern China, once praised the spirit of the place as an example for others: "Their slogan," he enthused, " is 'time is money, efficiency is livelihood.' In buildings undergoing construction, one floor is finished every day and the entire building is completed within a couple of weeks or so."

The pace of building has been so rapid over the years in Shenzhen that the Harvard Design School Project on the city in 2001 coined the phrase "Shenzhen Speed(c)" to signify the stunning pace of throwing up structures. The record design speeds they listed include: 5 designers x 1 night + 2 computers=300 unit single-family housing development; 1 architect x 3 nights = 7 story walk-up apartment; 1 architect x 7 days = 30 story concrete residential high rise.

Of course, Shenzen is a long way from Sichuan provine where the earthquake is.

We all know that pollution and inequality are downsides to the truly remarkable Chinese miracle. To them we must now add, it appears, faulty structures that, for all the speed in which they are constructed, are no match for nature's jolts when geologic time strikes. China's earthquake codes -- on the books -- are said to be up to California standards but are often circumvented in the same way corners are cut making toys, pet food and drugs. Hopefully, this quake will induce some reflections about whether the race to development ought to slow down enough to be safe.

Comments

[yexiaonan]

I was at Conghua, an outlying city 60 some km north of Guangzhou which is considered one of the less affluent areas comparing to those in the Pearl River Delta but much much more affluent than the area of the earthequake in Sichuan. The buildings in the towns and villages are just as shoddy as those collapsed buildings in the quake areas in Sichuan. When I asked my local friend about building codes, his wooden reply was that "there is no earthquake here".

It occured to me that China is still a "develoing" country, the challenges are immense, laws and regulations while plentiful face tremendously challenge in enforcement, disparity between rich and poor continues and most of all, there remains a basic lack of knowhow or awareness of environment and safety.

What China is endeavouring maybe to complete her evolution since her "reform" in 1978 within 50 years of what took the "West" 300 years - with a huge population and social diversity. There remains 20 more years before reaching this 50-year objective.

What is the point being made here? Show some compassion and understanding before lopping
criticism on China. If anything, this earthquake calamity may likely to increase awareness of environment and safety hastening the process of reaching the goal of a more equitable society.

Amen!

[deminmo]

From what I've seen on special reports about China, the government
has no interest in a lot of the population, who struggle with making a
living in rual areas. A lot of people are farmers who have to use very
poluted water for basic use and to grow crops. And many suffer for
years with cancers, and children with birth defects. So, something
like a devistating earthquake doesn't register. And if you look at what
happened here with Katrina, I bet the people of New Orleans really
identify.

[yexiaonan]

If one views many of the photos and TV broadcasts presumably now widely available in the "west", one may see the multi-storey buldings that had collapsed are laregly "older" buildings (while the newer ones remain relatively undamaged).

China did not have any building codes until 1976 or thereabout - after the last big earthquake at Tangshan that killed several hundred thousands. This is not to say that the buildings codes
are strictly adhered to.

One see through the griefs and sufferings of the victims that China despite her economic growth remains as a heavily populated state where wide-spread poverty remains, that economic inequity and dsiparfity remains in the rural sector.

It is true that China has paid a high price for its economic upsurge - in terms of enviromental degradation and workers' safety etc. - that being the heavy price to pay to get off the poverty line.

It is hopeful that with massive funding from the state and donations which are pouring in from inside and outside China will go to recontruction and resettlement of the devastated areas and the people.

It is time for compassion - not some cold-hearted intellectual analysis on whatever motivation one may possess.

[Artos]

I'm not surprised about the shoddy workmanship in China. Here is a country that is supposedly all about the working class and yet they won't allow them to Unionize and they could careless if they have safe housing. The Governmental Body cares more about their own safety than the working people. Yet all of this sounds very familiar. Wasn't America just like that even as recently as the 1940s and since Reagan and the Bushes we have also seen a steady decline in Standards throughout America in all areas. This is what Deregulation will get you. As for why so many products that come out of China are substandard. Let us not forget that many of those substandard products are made in American Factories there.The Americans who own them realize that China has no standards and so they feel comfortable in ignoring whatever standards would ordinarily apply in the U.S.

[patianneb]

No offense, but have you looked around the United States lately? With our bridges collapsing, levees breaking, public buildings one hiccup away from being condemned, not to mention an entire economy built on CHEAP & DISPOSABLE, looking down our noses at ANYONE feels like a slippery slope to me.

[patianneb]

While the author may be right as far as codes etc., go, I can't help but look at the reaction and ACTION of THEIR head of state vs the LACK of reaction and dragass INACTION of ours re KATRINA.

[BADEN]

DUH!

[1TruthTeller]

Folks, it's not the PRC's codes that concern me. In a report aired here a year or so ago, wasn't it revealed that San Francisco's buildings still met codes from 1906, not 2006? Go for it residents, check it out! Before it's too late!

[LivingInChina]

Nathan,

I live in Chengdu and can agree with many of the posters here that the quality of the new construction here is up to code and very safe. My building suffered not so much as a crack.

The outlying areas are a different matter. Still, it is not the SPEED of construction but the QUALITY that is the problem and underlying the quality is the CORRUPTION that is systemic in this culture.

Corners are cut everywhere and building construction is no exception. When the concrete mixture has too much sand because the contractor put the savings on cement in his pocket, or the pocket of some local official, the end produce is a disaster waiting to happen.

The the epicenter of this most recent quake was a small city that suffered terribly. Thirty to forty percent of the downtown buildings collapsed. I stayed there twice during my travels last summer. This town, and many others like it are controlled by people, party leaders, who have no interest in the welfare or safety of the people but instead use their positions to line their pockets. Did I mention corruption here is systemic. As major earthquakes are almost unknown in this part of China none of the officials responsible probably even thought that compromising the quality of construction would ever be noticed, so why not.

Do some research, Nathan. Your ignorance is showing.

Best regards,
Robert A. Cuthbert
Chengdu, Sichuan
P. R. China

[b1rd67]

"Still, it is not the SPEED of construction but the QUALITY that is the problem and underlying the quality is the CORRUPTION..."

I'm not an architect or civil engineer but I have built software systems and have some project management experience. Quality, cost and time are directly related to one another. The triple constraint concept of project management consists of Cost, Time and Scope. Any modification to one results in a proportional change to one of both of the remaining two. In the traditional triple constraint quality is an element of scope (though some break it out as a distinct fourth constraint) the logical inference is that quality may have been cut to reduce time, cost or both. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_management#The_traditional_triple_constraints

[johntal]

What period in Mankinds' history can ANBODY think of ; where the results of our hubris has not resulted in nature NOT knocking us down a peg?

[Artos]

Johntal,

I couldn't agree with you more and I will also say this, I predict that this year (2008) will see
a major cataclysm of immense proportions like none we've ever seen before. Look for a huge event here in the U.S. sometime in the next few months. I think it will occur in more than one place, perhaps the Midwest somewhere in and around Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and another in Wyoming which will be followed by a major upheaval in the ocean off of the Northwest Coast. All of these events will be interrelated and happen within hours and days of each other.

[edtastic]

Indeed the author points out the flaws in his own argument. I lived in Shenzhen the past 6 years and I know what shenzhen speed is. Your not gonna have Shenzhen speed in the countryside of China. This is a sensational article that does not prove anything, nor provide evidence of something. Its simply an author who had a thought and chose to right on a topic about which he was not informed. This kind of writing is annoying and waist the time of readers who expect substance not hair brained theories based on an authors imaginary world of simplistic assosiation. If you want to bash china while its in the midst of a National tragedy you must at least get your facts straight. At the least run it by some chinese natvies from SiChuan that can vet your story a little. There are lots of Chinese people in the world and I would sure like them to write about China instead of arrogant westerners trying to reassert there position of supermacy. American Media has a nasty habbit of not taking the rest of the world seriously as they take themselves.

[timothe]

The author swerved into an important point. For all of the growth of Chinese economy and the fear promoted here and in other places about the Chinese economy passing the US economy, China still has some very serious problems.

The biggest of these problems is job creation. As more and more Chinese achieve middle class status, those who don't have such status are flocking to the main cities in the hopes of a better life. This, in turn, is causing very severe population problems in the major cities. Their leaders need to create 25,000+ jobs a day just to keep people in the outlying areas.

Then, there's the oil problem. We have an oil problem, but it's very minor in comparison to the people of China.

Then, there's healthcare. Yet another big big problem for a population of 1 billion. Without more and more natural resources, the Chinese economy will fall under the weight of its own success.

By comparison, we got it pretty good.

[peacebro]

Nathan Gardels, I am glad you survived an earthquake that was not 10% of this human tragedy in China. Despite the fact that you are a sad dispicable embarassment to the human race.

My God I want to puke.

.

[MikePatronSaintofTruth]

Wow... I couldn't think of a more slanderous and lie-filled piece than this. What a bunch of hooey. I travel to China frequently, and I can tell you that Nathan Gardels does not have a clue about China. Nathan, have you ever set foot in China? If so, you must have had your eyes taped shut.

The reason why so many schools collapsed is because the schools are NOT the new shining glass and steel office buildings built in the last 15 years. None of these buildings collapsed, so far as I am aware... and certainly none in Chengdu, the largest city close to the epicenter. I have spent consider time in this area of China and almost invariably the schools are older buildings --if not down right old. Business has become the priority of the government in China... and the newer buildings tend to be buildings used for business-related purposes. I can assure you that the government will mostly likely now propose a massive building plan to construct new schools. Anywhere you go in China, you see the neighborhood schools... invariably they are older buildings.

There's so much more I could write, but this completely erroneous and very odd piece by Nathan seems like he just pulled it out of you-know-where!

[shanghaislim]

Well, we all seem to be in agreement about this article.

[Amalek]

The authors biography indicates he is an editor of an academic journal, which is really surprising.

He also was a lecturer at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Must not have left his hotel room. If they see the quality of this work I doubt he will be asked back.

[shanghaislim]

Shoddy article Mr. Gardels.

I have lived in China for 10 years now. 1998 to 2008.
Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong

Plus, I too experienced the Northridge Quake in 1994 and the Whittier Quake following while living in Hollywood.

The Quake was in a remote part of China. Not the new Economic Zones of which you speak. The size and scale of this Quake makes the S.F. and L.A Quakes seem like small rumbles.

Do you realize that the Quake was felt in Beijing and Shanghai. That is like an LA Quake being felt in Denver or Chicago!!!!!!!!!!

I just returned from an Olympic Training Session in Beijing 3 days before the quake. Their new buildings and structures are Top Notch.

The International Finance Center in Pudong (Shanghai) designed by the architects of the World Trade Center in New York has been called the "safest sky scraper in the world".

Seems like you are just taking another cheap shot at China to get attention?

[Artos]

shanghaislim ,

As many Earthquakes as you've been in are you sure God isn't after you. LoL Maybe you should let us know where you'll be next so we can be elsewhere.

[shanghaislim]

Coming to a town near you!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just kidding. Yea, I never thought of it like that. Anyplace you would like to send me? I am up for suggestions?

Crawford, Texas perhaps?

[Amalek]

This is an incredibly speculative and misinformed posting.

1. The earthquake was a 7.8. Under the richter scale, it was more than ten times the magnitude of his Northridge trembler. You simply cannot conclude that rapid growth and corruption explain the difference between 70 deaths in LA and 15,000 in China. This is academic bankruptcy.

2. The deaths here are primarily in remote rural areas that have not experienced much of China's rapid growth. There are no modern skyscrapers their that have been built to modern building codes. What we have is primative brick homes, and concrete and rebar structures. These will not survive an earthquake of this power. Are they up to code? Probably not. Most were built before such codes existed and the application of codes in remote areas is inconsistent at best - but is that any different than the US? Ever look at the quality of construction in poor areas of the American South?

China has issues, but it is not right to blame the victim in this case.

[shanghaislim]

Well Spoken, my friend.

[cam]

Agreed.