Post-Olympic Powershift: The Return of the Middle Kingdom in a Post-American World

SHANGHAI -- When scholars from across China gathered here this week in the afterglow of the Olympics to assess their country's role in the world, their pride shone as bright as the waxing Mid-Autumn Festival moon. More than a patriotic triumph, the "best games ever" were seen as a knockout blow against a West on the wane after 500 years.

To those charged with thinking professionally about China's future, the Beijing Olympics marked the advent of a new era in which the Middle Kingdom would emerge again out of the mists of history -- not as a hegemonic superpower, but as the superior civilization in a post-American world.

Whether one agrees with this view or not, it is unquestionably the driving spirit behind the powershift in the world order today and bears a close hearing in the West.

Among the political heavyweights at the third annual World Forum on China Studies, convened in a monumental Stalin-era exhibition hall now dwarfed by a towering sea of neon-rimmed, Godzilla-scale skyscrapers, was Zheng Bijian. He is the former vice-chair of the Central Party School, confidant of the current Communist Party leadership and author of China's "peaceful rise" doctrine.

Zheng argued that China's dream of escaping Western subjugation since the Opium War (1840-42) had finally been realized in the "new awakening" of the last 30 years of "reform and opening up." Now awakened, the whole nation was engaged in sorting through "a hundred schools of thought" about the way ahead in a globalized economy.

Indicative of the civilizational time frame in which the Chinese see themselves, Zheng compared this historical moment to the Spring and Autumn Period (770-476 B.C.) and the Warring States Period (475-221 B.C.).

In the view of this party ideologist, an awakened China had proven the superiority of its way over the grand Western theories of "a clash of civilizations" and triumph of the West at "the end of history" through solving the "riddle of the century" by abruptly lifting hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty and underdevelopment.

This success had proven, beyond any empirical doubt, the neo-Confucian wisdom of Deng Xiaoping to "seek truth from facts" and, step by step, like feeling one's way across a shallow river, "constructing socialism" in tune with local characteristics and rising in peaceful development. This offers the world a third way between the models of conflict or domination that emanate from the Western mind.

The reawakened Middle Kingdom, according to Zheng, "would not be puffed up with self-importance, divorcing itself from economic globalization and modernizing with the door closed." Nor would the new China "belittle itself" with dependence on the West but "act independently with the initiative in our own hands."

This new China, Zheng argued, would resist the path of the rise of the Western powers "with their colonialist plundering of the world's resources in the process of industrialization" as well as the ill-fated paths of the "military nations like Germany and Japan who waged wars to reshape the world."

The new China would also avoid seeking superpower hegemony like the former Soviet Union "under the cover of the so-called world revolution." Instead, based on its remarkable success, the new China would seek an "open, non-exclusive and harmonious" relationship with all others to "mutually open up the route to world development."

Lest the resurgent Confucian sentiments behind this worldview might be lost on the rest of the world, other prominent thinkers underlined the civilizational character of China's project. Zhang Xianglong of Beijing University's philosophy department highlighted the "non-universalist" nature of Confucianism and thus the emphasis on truth being grounded in particular, concrete circumstances instead of universally applicable standards -- whether the Western concept of universal human rights and democracy or the Marxist idea of universal laws of development. Because of its non-universalism, Confucian civilization seeks "pragmatic discourse" with others following their own path rather than seeking to lord it over them.

It is easy to see in this brief summary of the Confucian worldview the basis of all the slogans repeated ad nauseam by China's leaders today -- "seek truth from facts," "socialism with Chinese characteristics," "peaceful rise" and "harmonious society."

Reinforcing Zheng's claim of China having found a harmonious third way, Zhang argues that a "clash of civilizations" or the "end of history" can "only occur when universalist cultures encounter each other or prevail over each other. When two non-universalist cultures meet, there may well be friction; but total warfare that aims at mutual annihilation is generally avoided. When, however, two universalist cultures meet, even though they may compromise and negotiate to ensure their temporary safety, in the long run they are in principle engaged in a to-the-death struggle."

Indeed, Zhang notes, Buddhism and Taoism coexisted for millennia in China. Other scholars even posited that Confucian virtues constitute China's "soft power."

Tan Chung, who for many years was the dean of the Centre for East Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, views the Beijing Olympics not just as the coming-out party for the new China, but for the reappearance of the Confucian sensibility in world affairs.

"The magnificent success of the Beijing Olympics," he says, "objectively marks the transition of the world from the 'geopolitical paradigm' to the 'geo-civilizational paradigm' in which China takes the lead."

In Tan's view, China, as has been the case historically, is not interested in maximizing power through the conquest of territory like a superpower, but in the integration of civilizations through harmonious co-existence.

Tan is particularly struck by the 5,000 years of harmonious coexistence between India and China -- marred only by the 20 years between 1958 and 1978 when both civilizations were infected with Western nationalist notions -- as well as by the fusion of cultures in Central Asia known as "Serinda" or "Indochina" in Southeast Asia.

"In the Western hemisphere," as Tan labels it, "all the brilliant ancient civilizations like Babylonia, Egypt, Greece and Rome have become ruins without being handed down. This was because there was no 'geocivilizational paradigm' among them. The 'geopolitical paradigm' pushed them to scramble for territory and indulge in mutual destruction. The basic difference between Eastern and Western hemispheres lies here."

For Tan, the success of the Olympics will allow China to "bid farewell to the sorrowful feelings of history, discard the pursuit of power and return to its civilizational vocation of advocating a culture of harmony."

He cites the famous adage of Confucius in the Analects that the "Qi" state -- which pursues power -- is to transform into the "Lu" state -- which seeks higher cultural development -- and ultimately transform into the "Tao," or truth-prevailing state. (On the mundane level, Tan already sees that, filled with pride and esteem in the Olympic aura, Chinese are smoking and spitting less.)

Of course, no one need be naive about what the influence of a neo-Confucian China means for Western values in the coming century. For example, Zhang Wei-Wei, famous as one of Deng Xiaoping's favorite interpreters, confidently predicts that as power shifts east, the tired old debate in world affairs about "democracy vs. autocracy" that so irritates the Chinese authorities will, following the highly successful Chinese experience, be replaced by a more pragmatic and less conflictive discourse about "good governance vs. bad governance."

And it goes without saying that the exercise of Confucian authority is not beyond the brutal enforcement of internal harmony against rebellious children, as everyone remembers from Tiananmen Square in 1989.

But it would be equally foolish for the West, whether out of ignorance or cynicism, to dismiss the profound civilizational impulse behind China's rehabilitated self-image. For anyone who cares to look, it is written all over the proud face of post-Olympic China.

Comments

[WorkingClass]

In the abstract realm, Jeffersonian democracy holds great appeal for me. But alas, its seems that expansion of the franchise has brought about its demise here in the new world. Seeking truth from facts would be (understatement) a step in the right direction. Our current leadership has no interest in governing. It views high office as an opportunity to steal. We Americans may not wish to learn from the Chinese, but we desperately need to begin to learn from somebody. Thanks for this article.

[PaPaPeng]

Today we have three natural superpowers, the US, Russia and China by merit of their geographical size and the possession of many natural resources within their own borders, and by merit of the size of their populations. War is not conceivable between them for the scale of destruction will devastate mankind itself. The overriding concern then is how will these three superpowers co-exist? The US has already learned the limits of military power and the limits of her economic power. From where we stand today the US will maintain its course and her institutions no matter who sits in the White House. Russia is just reasserting her place in the world will not be the Russia of just 20 years ago. China went through six decades of wrenching changes to come to today. The Beijing panel describes lucidly how we Chinese see ourselves. By that vision we will conduct our affairs of state and affairs of self. We do not seek your approval much less seek your subscription to our vision. Non-universalism means we seek to co-exist, each in our own way without antagonism. The rest of the developing world is watching us closely to see what they can borrow to develop their countries and rise out of poverty. The best system will win. I believe China is already well along the way to this brave new world.

[crimson]

Excellent article Nathan. It is quite interesting (maybe even ironic) that it was the fact that China was reducing its purchases of Fannie Mae MBS's that prompted Paulson to engineer the US government takeover of the Fannie and Freddie. Did China just export a bit of harmonious socialism to the US?

[lynini]

I am glad that we are talking about civilization now. For a couple of decades, we have been viewing the world from a singular angle - "Power", which is inlfuenced by the school of geopolitical dynamics. It is time to return to, or at least to include civilization. We have talked about "culture" and "ideology" tiredlessly. In fact, culture and ideology can only be understood under the umbrella of civilization. As someone from China, I don't view the Chinese civilization as always superior; however, it is always a distinct civilization, which has also by and large stayed intact even with today's rapid modernization and astonishing integration with the rest of the world. The reason of which, deserves to be studied and learned.

[research]

Tibet.

[Blutus]

Oh please.

The Olympics a success??? A Fraud Fiesta that China will pump full of lies
to make the rest of the world think they have suddenly become a player.

HOW OLD ARE THOSE GYMNASTS MR. TAN???

How many old ladies you got doing hard time for protesting??

And you think you are civilized?

What's the current price of dried rhino horn? Gorilla hands? Tiger gall bladder?

The economic balloon is already leaking.

To have party members try to place China in the history of civilization is a bad joke.

The bodies are still warm. The graves are still fresh.


Do not forget the millions upon millions butchered by this "regime."

Do not forget Tiannamen Square.

Do not forget female infanticide.

Taosim, etc.... have "coeexisted" in China? For years?


Arrogant nonsense. Once again, China thinks the rest of us
will conveniently ignore the past because they have a large pot o' cash.


I don't think so!!

[MajorKong]

OK you win. China's evil. Now can we stop moving our factories there?

[PhantomAviator]

..

This "Tan" guy is a BAD student. He convieniently forgets that "Western" culture derives DIRECTLY from Summerian and Greek traditional culturalisms in his zeal to disparage America and Europe.

Chiness society is one of "do what you are told", "work where you are told", "think what we require you to think and if not we have a special camp for you."

Is THAT concise enough? Am I a better student that this Tan character? Is he a REAL PERSON or just a mouthpiece for Chi-Com ethnocentrism?

"...He cites the famous adage of Confucius in the Analects that the "Qi" state -- which pursues power -- is to transform into the "Lu" state -- which seeks higher cultural development -- and ultimately transform into the "Tao," or truth-prevailing state. (On the mundane level, Tan already sees that, filled with pride and esteem in the Olympic aura, Chinese are smoking and spitting less.) ..."

All that is Tao stuff is Anti-communist. Tao requires the student to make their own assesments of the world based on universal constants.

.

[Blutus]

He's a propagandist and knows exactly what he is doing.

They must distort their own history in hopes that the rest of us
will forget it.

[paixa3]

oh, you mean like republicans in the USA.

[3rdOption]

For a glimpse into the future of Chinese Hegemony, I strongly recommend David Wingove's Sci-Fi series "Chung Kuo: The Middle Kingdom".

Exquisitely researched Confucianism, a historian's fundamental understanding of the flow of Chinese history, and the vision of a futurist. And superb, intricate character development as well.

(I think some of the series might be out of print, but my local library had them all...)

http://www.amazon.com/Chung-Kuo-Kingdom-David-Wingrove/dp/0440613868/

If you don't think Chinese world dominance is coming, you didn't watch the Olympics, and you can't do math.

And you'll like their Capitalist/Confucianism brand of totalitarianism even less than you like our Corporate/Faux-Democracy kind.

[PhantomAviator]

..

Yeah.

Don't crow so fast about China.

They haven't had their Counter-Revolution yet, which from the suppressed reports we receive around here, will be in twenty to fifty years.

The point is this: The Chi-Coms think that a person can choose the brand of TeeVee they want and NOT be interested in choosing the brand of Government they want. THAT is a logical fallacy.

The division between the peasants and the "city-class" is growing. Larger that the Rich-Poor disparity that occurs in America.

What happens when large populations are supressed, and removed form any outlet to express thier pent-up political anger.

What DO we call that?

Twenty to fifty years and the Chi-Coms will be too concerned with internal control to cause America any problems not of an economic nature.

Remember, the Chi-Coms are SELLERS, not BUYERS. They need Euro-America to BUY to keep their workers working and not THINKING about the institutionalized class divisions in their supposedly classless society.

Social Mobility is the thing that makes America work. The idea that a person can move through social classes and not be CONFINED by them.

Oh, yeah...I LOVE the Chi-Com government Trolls. Don't you dig how they find EVERY blog post about China and counter any comment they feel diminishes them. Great stuff. Kind of like Republicans.
.

[paixa3]

You mention kind of like republicans......I say, EXACTLY like republicans.

[WorkingClass]

What happens when large populations are suppressed, and removed form any outlet to express their pent-up political anger.

Don't know. But we're fixing to find out.

[FebM]

And here we are still arguing about creationism and global warming. Proud of anti-intellectualism with role models who graduate bottom of the class or have nothing to demonstrate their capacity of critical analytical thinking.

I dont want a president who is just like me! I want one who has demonstrated superior intelligence and is ready to spend sleepless nights figuring and understanding foreign and domestic policy issues, someone honest to deserves my support without a doubt. When Obama opposed the war, he did not just say its wrong, he spelt out why it was so and why we should not go there. 7 yrs later the Christian conservatives are yet to tell us what they think about a president who looks you in the eye and lies.

Over 4000 dead, no exit strategy, still living in lies, how about being pro-life in Iraq??

[whatsthatsound]

There's probably a certain amount of truth in what they are saying. And heck, if the Chinese can do a better job than the U.S. has at being top dog, more power to them. But this is essentially transparent co-opting of the great traditions of ancient China by nationalists building up chauvinism among their people, Pavlov-style. The Chinese blogosphere is no doubt full of such trumpeting of China's superiority, with a good measure of anti-Japanese and anti-Korean (and anti-American) rhetoric thrown in. Certainly no enlightened, evolved civilization appears to be emerging out of Mao's macabre experiment.

[Lautenberg]

SMOG and more SMOG is all the world saw

[Drobezisi]

PART 2
One could go on about this, but the point is that Western Civilization as we know it today is far from being isolated or divorced from its cultural heritage in the ancient civilizations of the Mediterranean and Near East.It is particularly ironic that China should be so self-congratulatory after an event such as the Olympic Games: an event that traces its roots directly back to ancient Greece, and represents one of the earliest manifestations of the Hellenic ideal. China certainly represents an ancient civilization and culture worthy of our respect for its continuity and the depth of its history; but it certainly has no monopoly on that front, and should not attempt to claim one. To do so would only expose a hypocritical desire for hegemony, only one based more on cultural standards than on economic or military strength. However, history has shown the dangers of nations' self-infatuation with their so-called cultural superiority over and over again. It is something that tends not to remain apart from the desire for economic and military hegemony for very long, and tends to become a breeding ground for one of the ugliest diseases of modern history: fascism. All nations - China, the US, Russia included - would do well to learn from history, as there are many undercurrents of fascim swirling around in our dangerous post-Hellenistic, post-Olympian world.

[DarthVector]

Hi Drobezisi, cheers.

Might I also add that much Hellenistic civilization was preserved for the West by (oh the irony) Islamic scholars (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aristotle#The_loss_of_his_works). Many of the works of Aristotle in particular were lost, except in passing reference through early biblical commentary, until they were brought back from the Muslim world. This return was a key that helped spark the Renaissance.

Tan Chung simply displays a fervent national pride. Give it a few references, and a bit of a read, and it should evaporate into a more scholarly position.

[DarthVector]

Also:

Modern China may well be based in a long standing culture, but I think that it's the elephant in the room to point out that their Great Leap Forward has been made using a LOT of cultural and intellectual capital developed in the West. They may claim paper, printing and gunpowder. Who first developed the myriad of plastics they make the cheap products out of? The production lines? The shipping systems, the logistics software, the computers, the power plants, the engines, the aircraft, the financial market systems? Who developed the very engines of international capitalism they are harnessing? Western nations, by and large.

This is not to deny that modern China has advanced development in these areas. And China has every potential to take a position of leadership and invention, such as the boosters in this article suggest. But whilst it is fast approaching, that day has not yet come. When Chinese IP starts flooding out, THEN you'll have a major player on the scene.

[Drobezisi]

PART 1
I have to agree here with DarthVector. As someone who is a lifelong student of history, having striven to avoid the bias of geocentrism, from the summary of Tan's thought presented here second-hand, it would appear that he could use a further lesson or two in the history of Western Civilization. DarthVector focused on the example of ancient Egypt, so I will present another example: that of ancient Greece. The ancient Greek civilization, particularly after the reign of Alexander the Great, was based on the idea of the spread of Hellenism - not on geographical conquest. Hellenism was not a nationalistic philosophy - anyone could be a Hellene. It was a cultural mind set, a way of life, based on the value of education, open-mindedness, and love of virtue. It prized respect for local traditions while at the same time honoring the empire, and in that sense was seminal to the development of the federalism that we in the West have inherited in our present times (specific examples to include the United States of America, Great Britain and the European Union - all federal socio-political systems). This Hellenic tradition was maintained first-hand by the Roman Empire, particularly in its Eastern half (now known as the Byzantine Empire) up until the 15th century, and afterwards was inherited in varying degrees by the successor States of that empire.

[OhReallySheSaid]

Henry Kissinger recently wrote that this century will look more like the 19th century than the 20th politically and that may not be such a bad thing for America. Instead of one super power, there will be several spheres of influence: Russia, China, USA and so forth. the USA must rethink its strategy of endless military guarantees to countries like Georgia that have absolutely no relevance to our strategic place in the world. If and when all these chits come due, what's a superpower like us to do? Fight six front wars? Lean and mean, stay focused on what is essential for our republic to survive and prosper through this century should be our goal. Picking senseless fights like on Russia's doorsteps half a world away is not in our self-interest. After shedding an empire, the Brits are still revelant in the world, and we should start thinking more like them and less like a rich uncle Sam spreading money around taken from a cash advance on an over limit credit card. It's time to get our own house in order.

[GOVSUX]

The gentleman that wrote this article had his a$$ handed to him by almost every poster here. Fascinating.