Will Iran Look More Like Turkey, or Turkey Like Iran?

ISTANBUL -- The effort to forge new forms of non-Western modernity in the Muslim world has pushed Iran into bloody civil strife while Turkey swirls with persistent rumors of military plots against the Islamist-rooted government. The great historical question is whether, at the end of the day, Iran will look more like Turkey, or Turkey like Iran?

As the legendary MI6 agent Alastair Crooke argues in his new book, Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, the Iranian revolution was a direct consequence a half century later of the forced secularization of the Ottoman Caliphate by Kemal Ataturk. With the superstructure of the Muslim ummah dismantled and replaced with the Turkish nation-state, insurgent religious movements, from the (Sunni) Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to the Shiite imams of Qum and Najaf, moved into the vacuum to reclaim Islam from the shadow of Western modernization.

Paradoxically, Ataturk's whole modernization project is today being recalibrated by the ruling Islamist-rooted (Justice and Development) AK party, which is seeking to reintroduce piety into public life while projecting Turkey as a neo-Ottoman regional power in the Muslim Middle East instead of a mere NATO appendage or European supplicant. At the same time, Iran, the other regional power, is moving in the opposite direction: the Twittering partisans of popular sovereignty are locked in a battle with their theocratic guardians over the legitimacy of power in the Islamic Republic.

What goes around comes around, it seems. The reaction to the Great Transformation of early 20th century modernization may have given rise to what Crooke calls the "Great Refusal" of the Islamist resistance. But now the legacy of the Great Transformation in Turkey as well as the Great Refusal in Iran are facing the reverse challenges of bringing faith back into the public realm on the one hand, and democratizing a religious state on the other.

The historical cross currents are complex. In Turkey, one AK Party leader told me, by way of allaying suspicions about an Islamist takeover, that "without its Western orientation, Turkey would be just another Muslim country." Yet, a publisher friend worries that "without the military guarding Turkey's secular institutions, the Islamists would take over tomorrow." And yet again his 20-something daughter, despite the ever more prevalent sight of headscarves on the street, shrugs her bare shoulders doubtfully at the idea of Turkey ever becoming a repressive religious society like Iran.

In Iran, the very idea of an Islamic Republic, borne out of the 1979 revolution, is coming apart. What we are witnessing is a contest between the Shiite idea of an imamate, where, essentially, God is the head of state, versus the Republic, in which the people rule. What happens to the legitimacy of the state when the people, through their democratic institutions, disagree with God? How can this contradiction at the very heart of the constitutional arrangement of the Islamic Republic ever be resolved?

For all its grumblings and even rumblings, the military that stands behind secularism in Turkey has not so far frustrated the democratic aspirations of the religious resurgence there. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards that are protecting theocracy have done just that: they have sought to crush the assertion of popular sovereignty.

The clerical establishment aligned with the Revolutionary Guard in Iran won't be easily dislodged from power. Yet, once they've felt their power in the streets, as in 1979, neither will the people accept the suppression of their rights. By reasserting his authority after the election through brutal repression, Ayatollah Khameini has undermined the legitimacy of his rule. It may be a long, slow erosion, but the repression of legitimate aspirations is always the beginning of the end for any system of governance.

For now, the Turkish experiment in creating a non-Western, post-secular order seems more sustainable because it respects the will of the people. That is now the challenge for Iran.

Comments

[Blueboy1938]

When I visited Istanbul some years ago, it was plain to me that the tank-like shapes of the many women in gigantic raincoats wearing scarves was a clear sign of the creeping fundamentalism that has finally given Turkey an Islamist government. That government wants to maintain its European privileges while at the same time moving toward the institutionalizing of Sharia law and the dismantling of democratic structures. The West still has some leverage by holding the privileges hostage and demanding that equal treatment of women, democracy, and secular law prevail, but for how long?

[Garvagh]

Turkey has a more sensible foreign policy, as regards the Middle East, than does the US, and Obama would do well to emulate the decisions taken by Turkey. Turkey supports the Iranian civilian nuclear power program, and like Iran wants the Middle East to be free of nuclear weapons. Israel is the fly in the ointment, and Israel refuses to accede to the non-proliferation treaty.

[zmjz01]

DMikeyV: I'm jealous you are going to Turkey. I toured there with a Turkish woman whose kids were in US colleges at the time. That was 1996. Another US female tourist and I met a man who happily directed us to the Spice Bazaar and other places. Of course he wanted to sell a rug. I noticed him fingering his worry beads on the bus and on the ferry. I asked "Kamil, what kind of prayers are you saying on your beads?" He replied, "Nah, I'm not praying. I'm just trying to quit smoking."

I sincerely hope that Turkey does not regress to women in veils, etc.

[Talya]

There are certain comments posted such as "Forced Secularism" in Turkey and' "Turkey became secular in 1920 at gunpoint"...that needs to be addressed..First of all Turkey did not become an Independant Democratic Society until 1923. Before this, women had no basic human rights, they were stoned to death if they were suspected of cheating on their husbands...just like in Iran now, and in other Muslim countries ruled by the Sharia law. Children were taught some reading and writing in Arabic and mostly religion in schools with a dose of daily beatings from the Religious Instructor. The founder of modern Turkey , Kemal Ataturk abolished these inhumane, cruel practices with the approval of the majority of Turks welcoming these changes. The current situation in Iran, is the result of a nation of people whom have been living under an iron fist since the Revolution of 1979 AFTER it had already been free. With 60% of the population being under age 30, the youth we see whom are protesting the Government, are the children of the Iranians who were once independant and have lived in fear for over 30 years. They have now started a new Revolution, and a new Iran is emerging right in front of our very own eyes. This is History in the making. Iranians need a strong leader to support and guide them to a path of Democracy. The people have spoken.

[isafakir]

yes, god and quran were replaced by kemal and kemalism. medresses replaced by schools, hojas by underpaid teachers who made them memorize jems in ottoman turkish: yurtta suhl cihanda suhl. memory jems as incomprehensible as anything from quran. students now memorize ataturk. study marching in kindergarten. 99% of turks have no chance to see a university.

cooking, cleaning, washing, shopping, sewing, gardening, planting, harvesting are done by women, even if they have jobs outside the home. women still have no rights. unless they are in the top 1% of the economy.

less than 1% of the national budget went to education: unheated classrooms with 50 to a hundred students per class. whole regions have no education in local languages, arab, laz, hemshin, zazazi, romany, cerkez, azeri, gurcu speaking children get no instruction in their native tongue. teachers have no training in teaching turkish to non-turkish children, who make up a 1/4 of the country.

religion: strictly controlled by the ministry of religion. religious minorities suppressed. religious sodalities banned. the state religion is the Ataturk cult.

education strictly controlled by the military through YOK. the minister of education in Cumhurriet, the Kemalist newspaper explained: in Turkey, the purpose of education is not to train anyone to think but to train obedient citizens. direct quote. It is the policy to suppress minority education, education of the poor, and modern science. The issue of Nature the world's premier science publication containing the bicentennial celebration of Darwin was banned.

[mitaka]

I think you are masterfully or quite sloppily blending facts and fictions which at the end look nothing like what the situation in Turkey is. The issue of Nature was banned (I suppose) not because but despite of the secularist factions. It was rather with the pressure from hardline religious groups within and without the AKP government. On the other hand, yes, some significant number of Turkish citizens cannot attend university, as is the case in pretty much everywhere else around the world, but it is nowhere near the 99% statistic you seem to have manufactured from out of nowhere. I don't know where and how you got your absurdly ridiculous "1%" figure on women's rights. I am convinced that you have no factual knowledge or actual experience of current conditions in Turkey.

[MarcusT]

Not only are you misinformed but you're contradicting your self.

[VANDERGRAAFK]

I am really confused by this article. As comparative political analysis, it is superficial and glosses over a lot of necessary details and omits others. Still, I find the question intriguing.

First, though, I would emphasize context. Ataturk's Turkey evolved against the backdrop of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire due to ever more successful revolts on the periphery, the willingness of the West (Britain) to go after the Turks, a disastrous alliance with Germany and Austria in World War I and the Armenian Holocaust. When did Iran face anything similar?

It was not an empire - not since the first millenium. Iran did not face the loss of "colonial" possessions. Rather, it had to withstand the "invasion" of Russia and Britain.

But, so what? Different backgrounds can lead to similar results. The process of modernization may simply smooth out such great variations. Still, we might ask what processes are underway in both Turkey and Iran, questions the author posed above. Historically, Turkey has had to reconcile Ataturk's westernization versus the reality of a starkly conservative and religious Anatolian hinterland. Iran, if I might assert, posed a different question in the 1920s: the establishment of parliamentary government. The two are not unrelated, but they are also not the same.

[DeWayne]

Certainly the Ottoman Empire ran out of steam as slowly corruption crept in, and the British-Empire was successful into conning corrupt Middle East leaders into detroying it's last vestiges without promised reward, but today it faces a continued and outside effort to continue to destroy any untiy and social governmental organization that people of the Middle East would prefer.

Western Empires ever since Britain and other League of Empires have constantly been dividing these people into "Strategic Tension" modules of borders and divided-sect's in attempt to set up Democracies of Elite rulers over serf's. The Middle East peoples are not secularist's that enjoy letting everything hang out, as exaple Anglo-Oil that may then rake in 90% profits of whatever.

It appears this region of the world will not heal and perhaps become again a Cradle of Civilization, until Super-Empires pull butt out of these peoples lives.

[chariotdrvr14]

The author of this article seems to be discounting the enormous amount of public resistance to every attempt at reasserting islamism into gov't policy. When you have hundreds of thousands marching to maintian a secular government then you have to figure that the religionists aren't going to have it their way.

[isafakir]

when the large mass of turkish citizens are denied education by the kemalists, and religious freedom as well, it is clear that the educated privileged entitled elite who live in gated communities, shop in grocery stores the average turkish worker can't afford, it's no wonder that the securlarized entitled elite march to preserve their privileges while shouting insan hakki karolsun [damn human rights]. Inonu proclaimed in the Buyuk Meclis[great parliament], bu karakitab yok etticegim. I will destroy this black book. Then Kenan Evren pasa decided that that black book would be a good way to counter communism, the same mistake made in palestine when they thought HAMAS would stop the PLO. So now, the people do see that secularism is the religion of Ergenikon, and they don't like the Elysian Fields the generals promise them. After 80 years of promises and Sursuluk, they want a piece of the pie too. [in Sursuluk the commanding general of Turkey's police and the chief of the Turkish Mafia were both attacked in the same car together with their girlfriends, a failed assassination. The police general survived.]

[mitaka]

You are not making much sense to me. Are you for secularism, or are you for a religious state? Your ranting about Turkey is incoherent, to say the least. Yes, Turkey has many flaws. Military's constant interference and coups are nothing to be proud of. At the same time, it is not true that the majority would prefer a religious state even if there was a super fair and super secret referendum to decide on that question. So, what is your exact point with respect to the author's argument? Would and should Turkey look like Iran or Iran look like Turkey? I certainly would prefer the latter.

[MarcusT]

A very Turkish perspective. The educated class is indeed the secular and economically elite. And Turkish elites seems to be particularly "selfish" with their wealth. So it is natural and necessary and healthy that some sort of egalitarian movement arise. Thirty years ago this was communism. Today it's religion which is an ignorant tragedy. And this is the essence of the Islamic movement throughout the area. But Turkey is far too far along the economic integration road to "go Islamic."

It's the economy stupid-to quote the Clinton campaign slogan. But Americans are very uncomfortable with this concept in my experience.

[am5454]

I have to protest your assertion that the majority of Iranians are against Ahmadinejad. Although we have waited with baited breath, Mousavi has provided no credible evidence of election fraud.

When does the boy who cried wolf turn into the powerhungry manipulator sending impressionable youth to their beatings/death?

[isafakir]

the results have been examined by trained mathematicians expert in voting and voting fraud. there is a .005 chance that the vote tallies are not made up, natural. it fails every mathematical test. every fact known about this election is proof that it is fraud. go research the proof. for example, results published before the votes could be tallied. for example more votes than people voting. for example, declaration of support by the ayatollah before the votes were tallied. overwhelming majorities where the 'winner' was never in contention to win. absolutely no precincts reporting even a plurality in a four way vote. there is no conceivable universe where that degree of unlikelihood could occur.

[VANDERGRAAFK]

This is scary. Both as an accountant and a mathematician, I am simply in shock and awe that you might assert that trained mathematicians have demonstrated that fraud on the scale required to provide Ahmadinejahd with the 2/3 of the vote he allegedly "won" these elections by could not have been possible. Hmmm. I would rather approach this from a different mathematical perspective, namely, how it is possible to count x million hand written ballots and announce the results within three hours to a degree of accuracy within 95%. Puzzled by that one. Perhaps.

I know many of the protestors are demanding a recount. I'm suggesting an accurate counting of ballots for the very first time under UN auspices or better yet under Indonesian eyes, Indonesia being one of the few democratically elected governments in a predominantly Islamic society.

Please don't slime my profession with pseudo-intellectual rubbish that can't be independently confirmed. Mathematicians could perhaps do as you wish, if we had access to all of the ballot boxes and a reasonable assurance that none of the boxes had been stuffed in the intervening 10 days.

Or, we could ask these "mathematicians" to form an international company available worldwide at a moment's notice to help beleaguered voting officials count ballots in the Ukraine, Florida, Kenya and even Ohio! By golly, if it can be done in Iran, it can be done anywhere!

[bobh]

I just wish it were the case that rumors of a military coup against the Islamist government were swirling around Iran, not Turkey.

[hollybork]

Very good insights, Mr. Gardels. The Iranians are dealing with a fully literate, ambitious and modern, young population that wants to survive and have a good quality of life. That isn't possible with the clerics running things, and their mouthpiece Ahmadenijad blathering belligerent words on the world stage to frighten away the West, and demolish the chance to build foreign trade in everything but oil.

I was struck by a Tehran street sign. Under a picture of Khameini was written: “Islam is Freedom.”

I am waiting for the Shia Martin Luther. Coalitions lilke Khameini/Ahamedinijad that base their authoritarian power upon great books of wisdom like the Koran are sitting on a ticking time bomb.Once the people become literate enough to read the books themselves, as they are now in Iran, they will see the message is not to be cowed by evil and to abandon your personal view of God and Ultimate reality, but to see it through. They also see that the Koran speaks little to politics, if at all. It is about justice and the sacredness of God.

[phute]

Actually the young population of Iran is not in anger of not surviving - nor does it suffer from a real deficit of quality of life. And actually literacy levels are above your perceived standards. You see Iran is a pretty complex society. It is a cultivated society too. The clerics have massive authority but the Iranian people enjoy considerable freedom.
And all these poor wretches need do is learn to read and write - how condescending.

[am5454]

Seriously. Why don't Americans worry about their own economic problems? Help a college student get a job.

[breakingpoint]

Just ONCE I'd like to read an editorial here that says Yankee Go Home,

People who want to dive in and change the Middle East should pack their bags and head over there and fight.

The US was not meant to be the police of the world. Bring our troops home and respect sovereign borders, How hard can that be?

Here's something most people caught up in Iran's DEMOCRATIC ELECTION are missing, MEXICO is on fire! 5700 dead in 2008 - Beheading, kidnappings, children forced to drink acid and the violence is leaking into our borders - Hey folks check #yourownbackyard first.
http://jischinger.wordpress.com

[The Hedonistic Pleasureseeker]

AMEN.

[Macready]

sorry Mr Gardels . . but you seem to be giving the gist of a book you have just read . . . maybe you should visit Turkey . . .

Turkey should be admitted to full membership of the EU . . . I really think you are just stirring the kettle to make yourself look like a well informed intellectual . . visit Turkey and the rest of the Middle East . . .

[Superlat]

Ataturk knew what he was doing, just like the Founding Fathers of the USA knew when they explicitly wrote in SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE. Islam is not the only misguided religion, Christianity has murdered millions directly, and who knows how many indirectly through ignorance. Religion is by nature anti-democratic. It is all about who believes the most, and who is the closest to God, and religious leaders claim to speak for spirits who do not exist, so they can pretty much make up anything they want. People hang on to religion because they cant handle the finality of death or the insignificance of their own existences. Faith in something is important, but organized religion is not it.

Secularism is not a religion, it is a response to religious killers like those seen in Iran and in redneckville, USA. People already kill each other for money, jealousy, and stupidity, without religion turning it into mass slaughter. Look at the shiites vs the sunnis, the christians vs the jews, the romans vs the christians. It just goes on and on and on. It is true, however, that the nazis and communists were not religious organizations, so it proves you dont need religion for mass murder. You just need dictatorship, and religion is one of a long list of possible fairytales to justify murder.

Democracy, with its many flaws, is the only answer. BTW, porn sells fine in Turkey, have no doubt. Modern technology and trade destroys communities, not secularism.

[DeWayne]

Superlat said: Ataturk knew what he was doing, just like the Founding Fathers of the USA knew when they explicitly wrote in SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE.
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Superlat appears to have an overactive imagination concerning seperation of church and state. This comes from many denigrating the Christian principles during the age of the founders settig up the Constitution that established the framework of this nation.

Some apparently confused believe these men were safeguarding the nation from religion, but instead what the founders did was to 'protect' this religion. After all sho knowing the ways of man who would want someone like Bush speaking for the Church, saying he talked to god, and god told him to lie, steal, deceive so that we could run off pre-emptively and murder innocent people.

No, it was enough that Judean/Christian values down through the ages be the backbone and letter of our Constitution and nations framework. Hopefully men like Cheney and others would be fought by citizens that held and fought for this nation and it's value. It may look today as the My Way or No Way" crowd has taken completely over, but don't count out the decent people in America just yet.

[basenji]

Turkey became secular at gunpoint back in the 1920s, and the influence of Greeks, Armenians and Jews has made western Turkey (Istanbul and resort areas) a cosmopolitan culture. Imagine that, Zeki Muren, an openly gay singer who makes Elton John look like an evangelist, was the # 1 singer back in the 60s and 70s. However, starting in the 1980s, after Khomeini came into power in Iran, islamic influences started picking their head even in Istanbul. In the 60s and 70s girls strolled down the streets in their mini skirts and bikini tops, today you would see headscarves instead. The military establishment is secular, but the rank and file reflect the rest of society and that is why the top ranks wouldn't dare pull another coup. But as long as they remain pragmatists and not try to force the seculars live Islamic lives, we won't have to worry about it. Economically they depend on investments from the west and they know it. Turkey will NEVER be allowed into EU, but as long as they get the trading privileges they will live with that.

In Iran the majority is now religious, which wasn't true prior to 1979. They pretty much turned religious at gun point. If the secular middle class is joined by the poor we may see a real revolution IF the public is armed. Otherwise, the US media will have blood on its hands for egging them on all the way to the slaughter house.

[am5454]

"Zeki Muren, an openly gay singer who makes Elton John look like an evangelist, was the # 1 singer back in the 60s and 70s"

This is the true indicator of a superior society. May other men contribute to the improvement of my society, with plenty of help from KY.

[MarcusT]

Interesting view. Historically inaccurate and even culturally condescending, but interesting. I especially enjoyed the "secular at gunpoint." There seemed to be a lot of mini skirts and tank tops in the streets yesterday. I guess the Greeks and Armenians were out in the sun.

[TJCole]

Turkey will throw in with Iran, and Russia and Turkmenistan of course.....eventually and Russia will pour into the Middle East but not until after the Flood...when the Euphrates bursts it's banks and runs dry...flooding all of Iraq from Baghdad to Basra...

Which is why we must get our Troops out of Iraq A-Sap..!

[MarcusT]

Actually with the Himalayan ice caps are melting and in twenty years there wont be an Euphrates or yangetz or Mekong or...

I'm not sure if that helps your conspiracy theory or not.

[SadButWiser]

May be when Muslims leave their faith, and become Christians, you will be satisfied. It is like no Christian majority country is in a worse shape. Have you been to Africa? Or may be South America?
The current government of Turkey, irrespective of its root, had done a lot better than any previous government since Ataturk wanted Turks to be white men walking.

[DeWayne]

SadButWiser,
It is an interesting fact that it took a Muslim empire to form a Muslim, Jewish, and Christian unity called the Cradle of Civilization. A time in history when all these together working and contributing together produced many of the greatest discoverages still in use today.

It reminds me in a way of when this nation America was formed, becoming the melting-pot of many ethnic, religious, and races of man who could eventually overlook many differences and become an envy of the world.

I worry about people that have a weak and usless god, someone that apparently is better off on welfare and needs the protection of secular governments. I am enthused when finding strong people that do not have to worry about their God, and are more concerned if their contribution will make a nation and people perhaps the envy of the world.

Personally, today with perhaps more than 80% of our consumables coming from Third World people within what we consider near slavery by our value-standards, what this nation has become from leadership we call representative leaves me wondering what direction we will take in the future.