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Will Defenders of DADT Stand By Their Dire Predictions?

Posted: 12/21/11 03:50 PM ET

For years, defenders of anti-gay exclusion in the military have claimed that equal treatment was incompatible with a strong military. For nearly as many years, researchers pointed out that there was no evidence to support this claim that letting gays serve openly would harm cohesion, recruitment, or readiness, and that all the data actually showed the opposite: discrimination and dishonesty were what undermined the military; equal treatment strengthened respect for military law, helped expand the pool of qualified recruits, and removed an impetus for harassment and denigration that are anathema to good order and discipline.

This week marks a full year since Congress passed, and President Obama signed, the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell Repeal Act of 2010." It also marks three months since the new policy of open service went into effect. So how do we assess the change, and, equally important, now that it's behind us, does it even matter anymore?

During the years I spent researching and writing about "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," I frequently pointed out that when other countries lifted their bans, nothing bad happened. But people weren't convinced that the same would hold true here. As my colleague Aaron Belkin has theorized, in the U.S., fear and anxiety about change had swelled into full-blown paranoia. And this sentiment was being exploited and inflamed by political opportunists. There is even firsthand evidence that military and cultural leaders exaggerated the threat to unit cohesion throughout the debate over "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," in an effort to give credibility to what was, at bottom, simple prejudice.

This is why assessing the ultimate impact of ending "Don't Ask, Don' Tell" matters. And it matters enormously. Throughout our history, opponents of equal treatment have insisted that it would wreak havoc on society, indeed that it would cause such grave disruptions that equality was an unacceptable threat to civilization. This "disruption" theory was wielded against African Americans, immigrants, women, gays and lesbians, and transgender people, to name a few. It is perhaps the sharpest tool in the arsenal of people who refuse to rise above passions and prejudice, but who know that they can't win their argument using religious and moral dogma alone. So they deploy arguments that sound secular and pragmatic -- equality will somehow harm kids, undermine the family, destroy civilization -- to mask what really amounts to feelings of discomfort, resentment or simple opposition to sharing first-class citizenship.

The "disruption" theory was exactly what was applied -- and finally defeated -- in the effort to keep gay people from serving openly in uniform. For years, we heard that lifting the ban would undermine cohesion, spur a mass exodus of troops from service, hurt military families, and actually cost lives, that it would disrupt our defenses, weaken our country, and threaten civilization. Yet the ban ended three months ago, with little fanfare. Were all the naysayers wrong? Have any of them been held accountable? And will opponents of equality going forward get away with using the same "disruption" theory to convince policymakers to oppose full equality for LGBT and other Americans?

Because that's what they're trying. We hear that letting gay couples marry will disrupt the social fabric of American life, undermine marriage, kill a "culture of life," dry up the Western population, and threaten our civilization. If this is what was said about gay people serving openly (which it was), and if none of it happened, then the lesson is monumental: a culture of anxiety has become a politics of paranoia, which has pulled the wool over our collective eyes in service to maintaining an unjust status quo. Will we let it happen again and again and again? Will anyone be held accountable for steering us so terribly wrong?

We don't yet know if openly gay service will turn out to do zero harm to the military's readiness, as has been the case elsewhere. Next spring, I will co-author a study for the Palm Center to assess this question, and the Pentagon will be doing its own version of the same. In the meantime, today I am releasing a provisional framework for evaluating the change. The report, "Accountability and DADT," documents -- all in one place -- 60 of the main predictions of disruption that would allegedly result from openly gay service, and the names of the people who made them.

Below are excerpts of some of the most dire predictions. They include remarks by Sen. John McCain that lifting the ban will mean "doing great damage" to the military and will likely "harm battle effectiveness." They include warnings by Gen. Colin Powell, one of the most admired Americans in recent history, who insisted that openly gay service would be "prejudicial to good order and discipline" -- the very same words that were used to keep African Americans like Powell in segregated and inferior positions. Powell, whose great rise benefited from the boldness of greater leaders than he, never had the courage to say he was wrong, and never was willing to step out ahead of the pack -- the measure of true leadership -- and call for an end to a form of discrimination he should have found unacceptable from the start.

And they include the words of Gen. James Amos, Commandant of the Marine Corps, who said that lifting the ban could "cost Marines' lives." After the ban was lifted, Amos reported, however, that the development was a "nonevent" and that he was "very pleased with how it has gone." Not once during a tour through Afghanistan to meet with troops did a question about the repeal come up. A Pentagon spokeswoman echoed that implementation had proceeded smoothly across the military.

Explaining his opposition to repeal, Amos had pointed to a poll finding that about half of Marines viewed repeal negatively. He claims he was duty-bound to base his position on that one statistic (an opinion poll, not even an empirical study of the effects of openly gay service), despite years of documented evidence to the contrary that Amos was surely exposed to. Yet astoundingly, Amos said recently that despite being wrong about his predictions, "I think I did exactly what I should have done."

This kind of accountability makes the Wall Street titans who created the financial crisis look like poster children for personal responsibility. (At least Amos and Powell ultimately came around, unlike McCain and the rearguard GOP candidates and Congress members who continue to rail against equality in the military.)

Prejudice is not illegal. Neither is paranoia or its political exploitation. But accountability is essential to justice -- past, present, and future. The next time you have a discussion about the costs and benefits of equal treatment, remember (whatever your position) what history shows: opponents of equality always claim it will disrupt society; almost always, it doesn't. If this holds true for ending DADT, will the naysayers have the courage to say, "I was wrong"?

Sample Predictions of Harm and Disruption Resulting from Openly Gay Military Service (from the new report, "Accountability and DADT"):

"[Lifting the ban] may even prove decisive to the viability of the all-volunteer force. That viability may, in turn, determine our ability to avoid in the years ahead -- as we have for the past four decades -- a return to conscription to meet our requirements for warriors in those conflicts."
--Frank Gaffney, Jr., Center for Security Policy, 2011

"I hope that when we pass this legislation that we will understand that we are doing great damage, and we could possibly and probably -- as the commandant of the Marine Corps said and I've been told by literally thousands of members of the military -- harm the battle effectiveness, which is so vital to the support, to the survival of our young men and women in the military."
--Sen. John McCain, 2010

"[Surveys suggest that if the ban is lifted, a minimum of] 24,000 current members of the armed forces might be lost over and above normal discharge attrition in a one-to-three year period... Because these personnel would be completing one or more terms of service, they would, in fact, represent a hemorrhage of mature, skilled losses from the professional ranks. This is an enormous risk to the viability of our armed forces."
--General Carl Mundy, former Commandant of the Marine Corps, 2010, in a letter addressing Congress

"When your life hangs on the line, you don't want anything distracting... Mistakes and inattention or distractions cost Marines' lives... Assimilating openly homosexual Marines into the tightly woven fabric of our combat units has strong potential for disruption at the small unit level."
--General James Amos, Commandant of the Marine Corps, 2010, discussing his reasons for opposing openly gay service

"If the law is overturned and open homosexuals are welcomed into the military, the number of homosexuals in the armed forces can only increase -- leading to a corresponding increase in same-sex sexual assaults."
--Peter Sprigg, Family Research Council, 2010

"What if [proponents of lifting the ban] are wrong? Is there any way to find out without taking a real risk with national security? Are the advocates of gays in the military prepared to say, fiat justitia, ruat caelum ['Let justice be done, though the sky may fall']? And if so, do the rest of us, the majority of gays and straights alike who would prefer not to take such a risk with our lives, property, and freedom, have any say in the matter?"
--James Bowman, Ethics and Public Policy Center, 2009

"The core values of the military profession would be seen by many to have changed fundamentally if homosexuals were allowed to serve. This would undermine institutional loyalty and the moral basis for service, sacrifice, and commitment."
--Military Working Group on homosexuality in the military, 1993 (the military's official 1993 report on ending LGB exclusion)

"[Openly gay service would be] prejudicial to good order and discipline."
--General Colin Powell, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1992

 
 
 
For years, defenders of anti-gay exclusion in the military have claimed that equal treatment was incompatible with a strong military. For nearly as many years, researchers pointed out that there was n...
For years, defenders of anti-gay exclusion in the military have claimed that equal treatment was incompatible with a strong military. For nearly as many years, researchers pointed out that there was n...
 
 
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Bpers2001
Be a hero-Adopt a Shelter Pet
11:35 AM on 12/24/2011
I, like most Americans, are not the least surprised that the 'predictions of doom' by DADT repeal never materialized. Most people already know the truth; that prejudice and bigotry have no basis in fact or reality. That's why the repeal happened - because more rational, logical minds prevailed.
05:59 PM on 12/23/2011
Massachusetts has recognized gay marriage since 2004. It has yet to be enveloped in hellfire and brimstone. I'm pretty sure the most highly trained and well equipped fighting force in the world is not about to throw down its weapons and start holding hands to sing kumbaya just because a few of its soldiers came out of the closet.
10:18 AM on 12/23/2011
Haters just got to hate, so sad that it seems to be in their blood. They will cry and scream and will become irrelevant. Allowing gays in the military will change nothing, they have always been there and everyone knows it. These haters just can’t stand the fact that they can’t discriminate against them anymore just because they are gay. (The gall of some people wanting to treat others with equality and respect.) This fight will go down in history as pure ignorance.
Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
09:30 AM on 12/23/2011
There is no such thing as "equal protection" in an effective military force. It MUST be discriminatory, or the resulting loss of combat effectiveness will destroy it's ability. The military has always been given a great deal of latitude in selection of people to serve, and while laws have changed to require opening of the force, such opening has NOT always resulted in an increase in effectiveness!
Semper fi
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
11:17 AM on 12/23/2011
That's certainly find as long as the discrimination is meaningful and actually serves a purpose. If it's just discrimination for the sake of discrimination, then it needs to go.
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
11:24 AM on 12/23/2011
*fine*
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juanjo
02:41 PM on 12/23/2011
And yet there is nothing to indicate that combat effectiveness has been impacted by gay men and women serving in the Marine Corps, a fact which has existed for a long time covertly and openly for a much shorter time. There were gay marines who served during the Vietnam War Era including one of my cousins. The men in his unit knew he was gay but it had no impact on their cohesion or combat effectiveness as they saw him as a marine first and a gay man second. My time in the Navy was similar. What always amused me was the men who spent most of their time engaging in homoerotic word play and horsing around on ship were the ones out chasing tail at every port we called in. Those of us who were gay and knew each other were not so inclined but were always very amused in a cynical sort of a way. One of my closest friends in the service and to this day was a very straight, half Italian, half Black man from Brooklyn of all places. He told me long ago he had me pegged for gay the first time he met me because I was a lot like one of his relatives who was also gay. He had no issues with my sexual orientation and I had none with his racial mix. We still don't and I was proud to be in his wedding party and godfather to his oldest son.
Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
09:29 AM on 12/23/2011
Well, we will certainly see, in coming years, whether there is any ill effect from this change. But if the author believes that 3, or 6, months is sufficient time to make that determination, he is remarkably incorrect! Change, in the military, is glacially slow, and takes YEARS to overcome old prejudices (and I'm not referring to homosexuals in the military, in this statement).
The author refers to other military formations, around the world, that have made the change with no ill effect, but he is wrong. Having served around the world for 26 years, in joint and allied billets, I have found to my satisfaction that allowing homosexuals to serve openly, and opening combat billets to women, negatively affected combat capability. Many like to use the Dutch failure (my words) as a positive example. But the Dutch, formerly an effective formation, now couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper sack! Is it the fault of homosexuals? Not solely. But the entire mindset behind it led to a watering down of their abilities. Israel? Without nationwide conscription, a nation of 6 million could NOT field a combat force with sufficient manning without putting women and homosexuals into the force. But neither the women, nor the heterosexual men, like having the homosexuals in the force, and they are NOT treated equally in reality, though the law mandates equal treatment!
Semper fi
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
11:18 AM on 12/23/2011
And the Israelis?
Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
11:36 AM on 12/23/2011
You didn't read the entire thing, did you?! I addressed the Israelis.
Semper fi
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
juanjo
02:50 PM on 12/23/2011
You are mixing your opinion in and calling it fact. Your comments remind me of those of men who served with my father who was career Navy and who were all upset when the military integrated racially and later when it shifted to all volunteer. In both cases the focus of their ire was on all the blacks and others who would volunteer and would not be an effective fighting force while white males who were, would not enlist if they had to eat, sleep and work alongside the "coloreds". The screams of anguish over allowing women to serve in ships was also amusing. Interestingly enough my father who was as hide bound conservative as they come, was quite open to the integration process and developed a number of close friendships with Black and Hispanic men on his ships.

As for the Israelis, I have met more than a few over the years and my experience needless to say is very different from yours.
03:23 AM on 12/23/2011
The moment a gay couple in the military gets into housing before a straight couple does, will be the moment you find out who really supported DADT...

It is never an issue until it affects you
04:42 AM on 12/23/2011
Well if that moment occurs, it means DOMA was overturned and Same-sex marriage was legalized nationwide. Gay couples and Straight couples will be first comes first serve for base housing.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Atwill
Proud Father of a gay son.
08:02 AM on 12/27/2011
DOMA will die and yes gay couples wll get into base housing. There is a list, they will go on the list, and if they are above a straight couple on that list, tough.
03:17 AM on 12/23/2011
Is 2012 going to be like 2010? where the Dems will play defense and base their campaigns on how the GOP voted on socially accepted policies?

You know, like they did with ObamaCare?
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
09:28 AM on 12/23/2011
Try rephrasing this. It's not clear what you're saying.
05:16 PM on 12/23/2011
i.e. they will not do anything next year, but spend their campaigns trashing the GOP candidates on how they voted on 'popular' legislation, like the Payroll Tax extension, etc
01:36 PM on 12/22/2011
Thanks Dr. Frank for all your hard, meticulous, honest work to get us standing on something like an area of empirical rock bottom. Very helpful, very welcome. Happy Holidays, best wishes for the coming New Year 2012. drdanfee
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CelticMajic
The answer lies in each of us individually
01:10 PM on 12/22/2011
No disruption will be reported. It is decidedly not politically correct to make an issue of it as it would not be convenient for the adminstration, so it will not happen. However please continue to ask others to prove a negative if you wish.
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CelticMajic
The answer lies in each of us individually
01:59 PM on 12/22/2011
JohnJames asked a valid question and for some reason it was not approved but here is your answer JohnJames: "You obviously have no actual experience in the military or DoD. Our nation's military are firmly under the control of their civilian masters and completely understand who is in charge. The Administration would not tolerate any such report so there will be none. There may be some unofficial ones now and again and they will be found to have no merit but there will not be even a whisper from the defense department."
03:08 PM on 12/22/2011
But I do have experience as an American and as someone who is gay. The former informs me that there will be no free speech restrictions on what the troops may say to people outside of the military chain of command - journalists, their chaplains, friends, family, etc. - and the latter informs me that the religious right would in fact be loudly trumpeting the slightest grumbling from heterosexual troops, let actual disruptions, if it were occurring. Believe me, the religious right has been praying for anything whatsoever, anything, that they can use to argue for the reinstatement of DADT. No military experience necessary to understand that.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
plantwomyn
Fighting for full citizenship
04:22 PM on 12/23/2011
If what you say is true, our military leadership is NOT serving the nation, they are serving their career.
Out of curiosity, are you insinuating that the Obama Administration is LESS willing to listen to our military leaders and MORE likely to retaliate against them if the speak truth to power?
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
justlw
Nehemiah Scudder 2012: Now More Than Ever
02:10 PM on 12/22/2011
Given that military leaders have already freely expressed their opinions and concerns about this issue, that would seem to undercut your premise that they would then not "make an issue of it" if there are indeed issues to be made.
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CelticMajic
The answer lies in each of us individually
02:20 PM on 12/22/2011
You are mistaken. Once the decision is made then the discussion ceases. Military leaders owe their best advice to the civilian leadership but once the civilian masters make the decision then the military leader has 2 choices to make: support it or resign in protest. Hence there will be no report of problems forthcoming in official channels. None at all. The only exception could be if the media gets wind and investigates an actual problem but then there is little chance of than as the media also has a vested interest in political correctness.
01:01 PM on 12/22/2011
The people who posited catastrophic results are so far out of touch that any proof to the contrary will be dismissed as biased or the product of bad research. They, of course, will not be able to offer their own proof of the catastrophic consequences, but that won't bother them one bit.
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CelticMajic
The answer lies in each of us individually
02:00 PM on 12/22/2011
An of course you know this because of your recent and extensive time in the military. Is that right?
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
02:53 PM on 12/22/2011
That's just the pattern of behavior over the last century of those who have opposed the civil rights of blacks and women and now gays. They have a very poor track record on their prediction of catastrophic social consequences. Using that as the only measuring stick we have, I'd say we can safely ignore their doomsaying. They have yet to be right. Why would they suddenly start being right this time?
03:20 AM on 12/23/2011
wait until the day arrives if and when DOMA is repealed, and a gay couple will wind up getting into Militray Housing over a straight couple...

You will soon discover the definition of 'fair-weather'
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
09:34 AM on 12/23/2011
I doubt it, honestly. Everybody stands in line.
democratbob
Believe in equality for all, including marriage.
11:24 AM on 12/23/2011
I waited for years to get into military housing. I was never told who got it ahead of me or why. You're looking for excuses to try to stir up the pot. The problem is you're too little and too late.
11:46 AM on 12/22/2011
The problem with most of these comments is that they are from people who have never been and never will be in the military. It's not an easy life and in almost all cases it's not the life you thought it would be. If it were, there would not be so many people, these day's, suffering from complex mental disability's when leaving the service. It's certainly not a place to parade your sexual lifestyle.
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
01:46 PM on 12/22/2011
Of course, no one is talking about parading sexual lifestyles, so maybe you should try reposting on a topic that is actually being discussed.
03:20 AM on 12/23/2011
that is kinda what it sounds like...
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Angel1999
Microbiologist & Historian
01:46 PM on 12/22/2011
I assume you are in the military or were in the military. Please feel free to entertain us with your horror stories of people parading their sexual lifestyles around the base.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dm512
02:58 PM on 12/22/2011
they have a image of gay soildiers acting like the people in gay pride parades. :) honestly Id actually love to see an opposing Armies response to a battalion all dressed up like one of those big parades from religious :)
11:06 PM on 12/22/2011
No I have no war stories to tell...but I would sure be interested in any of your military experiences of any kind ....yours..or any actual stories for a relative ...friends...anyone...anyone at all
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
UnderTheHedgeWeGo
Show me some evidence.
10:58 AM on 12/22/2011
While the critics of DADT will be shown to be wrong, I predict that having been wrong will have no effect on there perception of the "problem". These are people who's most consistent defining characteristic is the ability to put there prejudices, spurred by emotion, above facts. They "know" what is true no matter what the facts are. "Facts", they are sure, have a well know liberal bias.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
tidalwave4455
10:52 AM on 12/22/2011
Why does it take wars for the US to grant civil rights to its citizens? Civil War: African Americans freed and given right to vote; WWI: women given right to vote; WWII: integration of the Armed Forces;
Iraq: end of DADT and multiple states vote SSM equality.
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splashy
Really?!?!!!
05:14 PM on 12/27/2011
Good point. I have noticed that too. The military leads the way when it comes to ending discrimination, then the soldiers get out and see what our society is doing, and try to change it for the better since they know that the discrimination is wrong and silly.

The people that like to discriminate only seem to respond to force, then they die off with aging and the younger generation has always had the lack of that particular discrimination. That's how it goes, generation after generation.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
bacaja
10:23 AM on 12/22/2011
Well if presidents can get the policy reversed and the media will fawn over it, what the heck does it mean anyway?
06:20 PM on 12/22/2011
You do understand that DADT was a policy put into place less than 20 years ago? It's hardly enshrined in the constitution. Also, the policy was reversed not by the president--that would have been an executive order--but by the House and Senate. Also a federal court declared DADT to be unconstitutional. As to "what the heck does it mean anyway?": It means that laws can be put on the books and then they can be changed. It happens all the time.
04:49 AM on 12/23/2011
It wasn't just the President. He also had to get both houses to vote majority to get it passed. It was hard enough getting the votes for the repeal, it would be that much harder to get it re-enacted!
10:12 AM on 12/22/2011
Just as important is the question of whether progressives will acknowledge the importance of repealing DADT. As with our exit from Iraq last week, I've heard crickets from progressives on DADT.
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splashy
Really?!?!!!
05:16 PM on 12/27/2011
Sounds like you haven't been paying attention, or only pay attention to places that don't have progressives expressing themselves.

I have seen progressives/liberals very very happy about both things.