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Nemat Shafik

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Avoiding a Lost Generation

Posted: 03/16/2012 7:20 pm

Young people were innocent bystanders in the global financial crisis, but they may well end up paying the heaviest price for the policy mistakes that have led us to where we are today. Young people will have to pay the taxes to service the debts accumulated in recent years.

Moreover, the global economy is threatened by continued strains in the euro area, and unemployment is still climbing in several countries, in particular in Europe. Young people (those aged 15 to 24) are the most affected, and youth unemployment has reached record levels in a number of countries.

If the right policies are not put into place, there is a risk not only of a lost decade in terms of growth but also of a lost generation.

Consider this. In Spain and Greece, nearly half of all young people cannot find jobs. In the Middle East, young people account for 40 percent or more of all unemployed people in Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia and nearly 60 percent in Syria and Egypt. And in the United States, which traditionally has had a strong job creation record, more than 18 percent of all young job seekers cannot find employment.


Legacy of loss

Youth unemployment has long-term consequences for economic growth because of the loss or degradation of human capital. But it also has many other consequences, both for the individuals affected and for society as a whole.

Among those consequences are


  • Increased costs to the economy: Youth unemployment results in higher unemployment insurance and other benefit payments, lost income tax revenues, and wasted productive capacity.

  • Brain drain: Youth unemployment often leads to increased emigration, which is clearly happening in Ireland and Iceland and has been a long-standing feature of many Middle Eastern countries. Many crisis-hit economies have a tradition of emigration when the economy undergoes a serious downturn.

  • Higher crime rates: Increased unemployment has been linked to higher crime rates.

  • Lower lifetime earnings: Youth unemployment leaves a "wage scar" in the form of lower earnings that can last into middle age. The longer the period of unemployment, the bigger the effect.

  • Lower life expectancy: Unemployment more generally has been linked to lower life expectancy, a higher incidence of heart attacks later in life, and even higher rates of suicide.

Road map to jobs

The biggest contribution the IMF can make to reducing youth unemployment is helping its member countries foster macroeconomic stability and restore economic growth. It is only when the economy recovers that people will start to find jobs again.

To get the world economy back to where it creates rather than destroys jobs, a number of steps should be taken.

In advanced economies like the United States and Europe, there is a problem of inadequate demand. More needs to be done to energize growth and employment.

Many countries in Europe also face obstacles to hiring young people that are of a more long-standing structural nature.

As part of its policy dialogue with member countries, the IMF is recommending measures to reduce labor market segmentation, lower barriers to competition (especially in the service sector), implement growth-friendly tax reforms, and increase efforts in education and research and development.

Emerging economies are another story. They have been growing strongly, and some -- at least until recently -- were even at risk of overheating. Some of these countries -- mainly those running large external surpluses -- could contribute to solving the global and youth unemployment problem by boosting domestic demand and purchasing more goods produced elsewhere, including in advanced economies.

Low-income countries weathered the crisis pretty well after 2008, but in the process used a lot of their government resources. They now need to rebuild their fiscal buffers, so they can sustain employment and redirect spending toward high-priority areas such as health, education and infrastructure, even if the global environment deteriorates.

Access to credit is another important factor in job creation. That is why it is important to recapitalize banks and more broadly restore confidence, so that financial institutions can get back to the business of lending and contributing to growth.

In developing economies, many banks are lending, but the loans do not reach large segments of the population, particularly young people and would-be entrepreneurs.

Call to action

For millions of young people around the world, a lot is at stake in 2012. If we do not succeed in putting the world economy back on the path to recovery, futures will be blighted, and more dreams will be stolen. To solve the problems of youth unemployment restoring global growth is crucial, as are policies to support job creation and credit. None of this can be achieved without global cooperation.­

Read more at F&D magazine.

From iMFdirect blog.

 
 
 
Young people were innocent bystanders in the global financial crisis, but they may well end up paying the heaviest price for the policy mistakes that have led us to where we are today. Young people wi...
Young people were innocent bystanders in the global financial crisis, but they may well end up paying the heaviest price for the policy mistakes that have led us to where we are today. Young people wi...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Anthony James Brooks
10:45 AM on 03/19/2012
We're all best served disregarding anything the IMF says. This is an institution that makes a living off of keeping countries in perpetual debt. Don't believe me? Please find one point in this article where you find the term "debt forgiveness". Don't see it? That is not a coincidence. If the IMF was truly looking to assist countries in dire straits, they wouldn't be hanging bank debt over their heads. Countries like Greece, Portugal & Italy would benefit enormously from debt forgiveness, but that would expose how leveraged the financial institutions are that own their worthless bonds.

As long as we let private banks dictate the amount of currency in circulation we will be slaves to the notion of scarcity. There is more than enough oil, food, water & resources on this planet. In fact, all 7 billion people on this earth could comfortably live in a space roughly the size of Australia. It's the oldest trick in the sales book, "buy now before its too late!".
10:04 AM on 03/19/2012
I had the same thing happen to me when I graduated in the late 70s = no jobs. Now, I. like far too many my age, have been kicked to the curb and find it near impossible to get any notice from corporate America. The reasons for this are many but seem to center on gross management incompetence. They seldom know what they want (and frequently know little to nothing about anything to the point of not even undersatndign simple resumes) and eliminate the very people who can help them in business in favor of keeping their relatives, freinds, and lovers. There is only one word for that: stupid.
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Kai-HK
Don't Share My Wealth! Share My Work Ethic!
11:46 PM on 03/18/2012
Ms. Shafik:

Thank you for illustrating so clearly the failed policies of socialism that have resulted in an impending youth crisis. If there is one good thing that came out of the global financial crisis it is the fact that it put into high relief the fact that socialism is ultimately ruinous to economies. This realization should be celebrated. More importantly, especially in Europe, youth are coming to realize that it is the underpinnings of capitalism that drive job creation and opportunity, not socialist handouts that destroy wealth to equalize misery.

‘Capitalism can mean different things to different people. Economic prosperity requires a legal system that protects individuals and secures their property from expropriation, whether it be private theft or political predation. Advocates of this system of rules often call it “capitalism.” We’ll call it “free-market capitalism.” And it’s a good thing for government to let this kind of capitalism develop by protecting private property, sanctity of contract, and consensual exchange. This ensures individual freedom of choice—and not coincidentally, it is the only known recipe for economic prosperity.’—Tyler Watts

Kai
10:05 AM on 03/19/2012
How do you get that out of this article? Clearly, you've been sipping (gulping?) the Limbaugh koolaid...
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Kai-HK
Don't Share My Wealth! Share My Work Ethic!
10:09 PM on 03/19/2012
Quite easily. I look at failed countries with high unemployment, I look at their debt levels that caused their systems to crash, and then I look at why they have such high debt....socialism

Who is Limbaugh, some boogieman following you in a black stealth helicopter using the tracking devise he put into your head so he can track you too your children in order to trade them to the Chinese in exchange for cheap Wal-Mart tube socks?

Godo luck with that paranoia. I have no access to Limbaugh radio.

Kai
07:35 PM on 03/18/2012
"Global growth" becomes more and more difficult as the population increases. Earth's resources are limited.
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
09:04 PM on 03/18/2012
Read Julian Simon's "The Ultimate Resource".

You'll rest easy once you do...
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Kai-HK
Don't Share My Wealth! Share My Work Ethic!
11:50 PM on 03/18/2012
MrJoyboy:

I know what you mean, after we ran low on mink whales, it was impossible for us to have lighting in our houses. Also, once we ran out beavers….it was impossible for us to keep up with top hat exports. Because in your world everything is static and we never innovate….and there is poverty in the world today despite the fact that the US throws away a good percentage of its crops every year or turns them into green energy waste because we are out of resources.

Good point. Malthus agrees with you…

Kai
08:47 AM on 03/19/2012
Evidently you missed the part about "as the population increases". Earth is a closed system.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
daddyo1109
Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
02:46 PM on 03/18/2012
Whatever low price you set on a country's minimum wage, the Corporate Privateers can and still will outsource most manufacturing jobs to the country that provides the Lowest Labor Cost. As long as India, China and others like them continue to undercut wages in Europe and the US, the corporations will continue to develop manu-factories in those countries.
If the IMF wants to help with raising the wages of laborers around the World they must put pressure on countries who offer Labor for $2(two dollars)/day.
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
09:04 PM on 03/18/2012
Who's more productive, someone who makes $10/hour, or someone who makes $2/day?
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Kai-HK
Don't Share My Wealth! Share My Work Ethic!
11:52 PM on 03/18/2012
Or let markets pressure those that make more than $2/day to get out of labor intensive industry and move to a better industry. It is teh market signalling that your industry is not worth more than $2/day and it is time to redeploy that labor elsewhere.
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
11:41 AM on 03/18/2012
Econ 101 seems to be lost on most folks.

The more expensive an economic input, the higher the incentive to find cheaper alternatives.

Wage labor is an economic input. Minimum wage laws can raise the costs of the no/low skilled above market clearing levels, especially in locales with a surplus of labor. What that means is if the government waves its magic legislative-wand and decrees that $8/hour is the value of no/low skilled labor to employers, and employers value that labor at less, they will not do much hiring.

Property rights also have been commandeered by the state. One's productive capabilities are one's own to sell, at whatever price one can find a ready buyer. What does it serve the no/low skilled who are willing to work for $5/hour to get their "foot in the door" if employers are forced (and unwilling) to pay them $8? Who wins? Certainly not the folks aged 16-24 who are the vast majority of those working at minimum wage in the US, who coincidently also have the highest rates of unemployment.

Lastly, in the US, many unions typically push for increases in the minimum wage. Why? Because many times, contract wage rates are based upon the prevailing minimum wage; the higher the minimum, the higher the contract rates. The unions don't care about those who are priced out of the market;members pay dues, unemployed teens do not.
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
You know how to use Google too !
01:39 PM on 03/18/2012
So, businesses have a God-given right to exploit US citizens by paying them non-living wages ? If your business revolves around ultra-low labor costs alone, then something tells me that we, as a country, could survive your business going under.

It's Capitalism, buddy. Businesses go bust for various reasons all of the time, some regulatory and some not. There's no reason that one should assume that regulatory structures will always stay exactly the same. It's part of the risk of owning certain types of businesses, and the owners know that going in.
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
07:58 PM on 03/18/2012
How is voluntarily selling one's labor to an employer at an agreed upon price "exploitation"?

What's worse, to be "exploited" and make $5/hour, or to have the government "protect" you, and make nothing?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
01:40 PM on 03/18/2012
It's a race to the bottom. Employers will always seek to pay the least -- and make the most profit. This was the same argument used to justify slavery. Without slavery, prices will go up and nobody will be able to buy anything.
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
09:03 PM on 03/18/2012
Slaves were paid?

The only thing that causes economy wide inflation is an increase in the money supply beyond what the economy needs to efficiently function.

What businessperson purposely overpays for ANYTHING?
11:13 AM on 03/18/2012
Every one of us Parents has one or two such malcontents in our homes.... Think of this, however; can we really blame anything of what is going on in the country upon them? They do have natal and childhood rights to the kind of world we promise ourselves, and them, but have failed to deliver. Too many things, choices, practices, that their previous generation (WE) have made... factor in to condemn their 'reaction' to the society we have handed them. The rebel without a voice... because we have muted them effectively by ignoring their real needs till now, we call them reprobates. "Lost Generations" are prescribed by selfishness and self-indulgence. The problem is a wider one than we are usually prepared to admit. The culture that perpetuates ignorance and careless living is at fault.
09:35 AM on 03/18/2012
A Global Environmental series of projects financed by the IMF could generate millions of semi-skilled and unskilled jobs across the world. Is keeping the plant habitable within your scope of work?
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
11:50 AM on 03/18/2012
More tax dollars wasted on "make work" jobs is not the answer.
12:26 PM on 03/18/2012
Military - make work? Infrastructure - make work? Making useless consumer goods - useful work? Making junk food - useful work? Your model of understanding is very different from mine.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
01:42 PM on 03/18/2012
Just let people starve.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
08:34 AM on 03/18/2012
There may be a cause and effect for this. In New York, Democrats are raising that state’s minimum wage, this time an additional 17%.

Store owners are complaining that increasing the wage they must pay teenagers for entry-level jobs will cause them to hire fewer of them. But, according to state Dems:

Kerri Biche, a spokeswoman for [State Assembly Speaker] Silver, says the business people are overlooking the good points of raising the minimum wage.

“These people getting the higher wage will be spending more money in their communities. They will be able to buy more from these businesses,” Biche says.

So why I ask, and have asked every year the minimum wage is raised, why not raise the minimum to a level that will make these teenagers truly rich? If 17% will actually benefit, not harm store owners and pay for itself, why not 1,700%? Raise that paltry $9 an hour to $15,300. Won’t that benefit everyone?

NPR reports that the teenage unemployment rate is 25% (49% in D.C.) and keeps rising, despite a steady increase in the minimum wage. No explanation is given for this paradox that is creating a “lost generation”. Gee. I wonder why?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
01:43 PM on 03/18/2012
Historically, raising the minimum wage has never -- I repeat NEVER -- led to employers hiring fewer workers. Employers never hire workers they don't need -- they always hire workers they DO need.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
03:16 PM on 03/18/2012
To say that the minimum wage doesn’t affect the employment market would be dishonest and disingenuous. Otherwise, why don’t you go ahead and call for a minimum wage that is ten times higher? After all, an increase in minimum wage wouldn’t have any effect, right?

When minimum wages increase an employer naturally prefers not to let it affect its workforce. Sacking people is costly and dangerous for employee morale. However, employers adjust their expansion plans and naturally decide not to hire as much in the future. So you may not see any job cuts, but you will not see a high level of job creation either.

The real question about minimum wages isn’t ‘what would be the effect if we increased it by 20%’. It’s ‘how much better could we be without minimum wages?’. There needs to be a study to compare a situation with minimum wages to one without.

Show me a country with high minimum wages and other government burdens on employers, and I’ll show you a sluggish, unemployment-ridden economy. Examples: too many to mention.

Show me a country without minimum wage and little government burden on companies, and I’ll show you a vibrant economy that functions without unemployment. Examples: Switzerland expects an unemployment rate of less than 3% in 2012. Singapore has an unemployment rate of around 2%.
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John Galt2
My life is my own...
07:47 PM on 03/18/2012
Can you provide a link to back up that assertion?
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
12:44 AM on 03/18/2012
Maybe there's a labor shortage coming
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-03-14/commentary/31160294_1_baby-boomer-skilled-workers-labor-shortage

" The change in thinking we’re going to undergo is shifting from a mindset of “we don’t have enough jobs for our citizens” to “we don’t have enough citizens for the amount of work we want to do.” ... And since the recession began in 2007, the only age category where the number of workers continues to explode is 55 and older. "

This is what they've been saying for years. It seems things got derailed by the great recession, but Obama did manage to avert great depression II and employment is picking up, albeit slowly.

But baby boomer retirements will also start picking up. I'm considering right now whether I'm going to be a contributor to that retirement statistic. (It's a complicated story)

But, it may be sooner, rather than later when employment will absorb available workers.
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Chasing Aphrodite
Your worth should never depend on another persons
01:10 AM on 03/18/2012
The Labor-Shortage Myth
When boomers start to retire, the theory goes, we'll see a job boom. Too bad it won't happen.

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/85/essay.html
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
12:20 PM on 03/18/2012
Thanks for the link to the article.
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Chef Typhoid Mary
Taxes are what we pay for civilized society.
10:46 PM on 03/17/2012
"Privatized companies reduce employment (Blue and white collar) by half."

This is a quote from one of her publications. I call this crocodile tears to hide the fact that her economic policies are a major factor causing youth unemployment in the first place.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022542896900290
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OMEGA MAN
A wise man learns from the mistakes of others.
11:44 PM on 03/17/2012
Her paper is called "Selling Privatization" . It's real title should be "Selling Privatization To The Unwashed Masses".
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jeffrey678
You don't happen to make it. You make it happen.
09:25 PM on 03/17/2012
A privatization supporter, But could not answer this question,

"How come a few people got rich and a lot of workers got laid off?" And we often didn't have a good answer to that."

These were her words not mine.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/int_nematshafik.html#4
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IgnoranceIsStrength
Don't ask me, Google it yourself !
10:07 PM on 03/17/2012
She supports government policies the create youth unemployment.
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
You know how to use Google too !
08:36 PM on 03/17/2012
But that's the libertarian dream: feudalism. The aristocracy not of money, but of the sword. The near future of a merchant aristocracy is just a transition state. This is because it is impossible for a business to internalize the cost of protecting and maintaining long range transport. Implicit coercion will gradually, or perhaps quite rapidly, be replaced with the naked force of local bullies, as the global economy fragments.
In other words, the local bullies are free to revoke the freedoms of individuals, using methods more subtle than overt violent coercion.

http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2011/12/liberty-of-local-bullies.html
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ruolivert
03:30 PM on 03/17/2012
My generation is already lost. We have low wages, no assets, and no jobs. The American Dream is now simlpy moving out of the house. Romantic relationships primary value is finding someone to share the bills with. Careers have been replaced with a revolving sets of jobs and we're looked at to support both the poor in this country and those entering retirement. We will pay higher taxes, our currency will be worth much less, and we have to deal with the consequences of decades of insane greed.
This is what the Arab Spring is, this is why England had riots for 3 days last summer, this is why we occupied Wall St and the rest of the country, and this is why the generation currently in charge does not make changes that nice retirement that they are "entitled" to won't be so secure
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert SF
05:38 AM on 03/17/2012
What Nemat Shafik says about the young is true enough, but she misses the cause by a mile. Unemployment is a worldwide problem, and it has little to do with the economic crash of 2008. The recession of 2008 is over: corporate profits are up, corporate bonuses are up, the stock market is up. Why isn't employment up? Because automation has now caught up with us.

The truth is that all the goods and services that can be sold are being manufactured by only 80% of the world's workforce, and that number can only shrink as automation continues to advance. It's pointless to call for more education or more entrepreneurship because every new development uses LESS people. Nothing can grow exponentially forever, and capitalism seems to have reached that point.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ruolivert
03:24 PM on 03/17/2012
Anytime I hear people say "capitalism has reach its end point," or something along those lines I'm amazed that people don't realize that the financial system we have in place is not capitalism. YOu and I have capitalism, but governments and huge businesses eat large from freshly printed money from the world's central banks. I'm not really sure what your solution would be because if you don't have capitalism you have statism which bring the possibility of totalitarianism and fascism to the forefront
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert SF
04:46 PM on 03/17/2012
Yes, without capitalism you have statism, but with capitalism, you have corporatism. Which is the worst of the two? Well, at least we can vote for state officials, but we can't vote for corporate officials. Should an elected state govern both people and corporations, or should unelected corporations own the state which then rules over the people?