The news from Swat is grim at best. In addition to the barbarism of the Taliban and their well-known misogynist ways, they are also a land-grab movement comprised of criminals and thugs in addition to the ranks of religious zealots.
At present, while our civilian government has not been supportive of them until the party that won in the NWFP, the secular ANP had 9 of its legislators killed one by one, it seems our fighting arm, that we have indulged and cosseted with the majority of our resources for the last 60 years, is unwilling or unable to fight these militants and criminals. There were 1,000 of them in Swat; and 15,000 troops. Not once did the troops challenge the 1,000 Taliban and the state apparatus has capitulated to them. Shockingly, even the recently restored judiciary has shown no spine, and has recklessly released the cleric responsible for the Red Mosque uprising on less than $2,500 bail.
Anybody who has property or means of any kind is now worried about whether they will own it in the future if things get worse and our armed forces don't take on these miscreants. We are not in a state of chaos or civil war yet and day to day life is quite normal, but it is no longer easy to say with certainty that neither will happen in the next year or two. The jury is out on the latter, with people like my mother feeling more apprehensive, while my father is more relaxed and thinks that something will give before the Taliban sweep through the country.
The fact is that not enough is being done to combat them. Far from it. On the positive side, they are armed and trained to fight, but they are far less numerous than those of us who don't ascribe to their beliefs. The question remains: will the Pakistani troops fight them or will civilians have to take up arms? Public opinion is turning against them slowly, but it is turning a bit. I predict that things will get worse before they improve, and we will likely see more violence before it recedes. Two months ago, I learned how to use an AK-47. I did that not out of my love of weaponry, but as a precaution.
I should add, however, that, at the same time, people's personal lives are pretty unaffected by all this (except those in the NWFP). While the deteriorating situation is always at the back of one's mind, life goes on as normal: weddings, funerals, holidays, carnivals, etc. are not really letting up yet, though security is more visible at hotels, and so forth. To some extent, people may be beset by the Rome is Burning syndrome, while others don't feel there is anything they can do other than protest or write article or letters to the papers. Others are working on a media strategy to combat these people because the media has disappointingly been on the whole pro-Taliban (despite the fact that the media will become one of the first casualties of the Taliban). We are working with other members of civil society to come up with a coherent strategy to take on this challenge.
Ultimately, though, when any state faces an existential violent threat, it is the military and security arm of the state apparatus that must be ready to fight to protect the citizenry. That has not yet happened. It is not clear that it will.