Just as traditionalists once poo-pooed telephone surveys over face-to-face, so too must the modern American political pollster embrace new methodologies or risk finding themselves the punchline to the next Eric Cantor joke.
Obama has gained back all the ground he had lost and then some (well, "and then a little bit more" would be more accurate...). He still hasn't quite made it back to where his poll numbers were before the Obamacare website rollout, but if the trendlines continue in May, he is at least within reach of this goal for the first time since October.
Consistent with conventional wisdom, the youngest cohorts appear more Democratic-leaning than the national electorate as a whole, whereas the oldest cohorts appear more Republican-leaning.
Southern Whites didn't vote for Obama (and by association, won't vote for Democrats). So argues the New York Times' Nate Cohn in a provocative piece entitled "Southern Whites' Loyalty to G.O.P. Nearing That of Blacks to Democrats."
If we want a clearer picture of emerging trends and the next economy, we need to better understand the effects of automation on employment, sharing on existing business models and household production on political views.
There is more to our past success--and failures--than simply getting more women, minorities and young people to the polls. Turnout doesn't exist in a vacuum, and demographics aren't destiny.
Yes, Democratic turnout is comparatively lower than Republicans in midterm elections compared to presidential elections. Yes, Democrats are disadvantaged by this. Yes, Republicans are trying to restrict voting in the names of vote fraud and election uniformity. However, there is a glaring fact, come the light of day.
In today's world, quality pollsters must guarantee their polls include cellphones, and poll consumers should demand the same.
America's political class would prefer to keep the discourse safely symbolic, put the vote buying on the federal credit card and retire into a comfortable lobbying or association post. In sterile business-speak, our time horizons are misaligned. But reality intrudes.
Predictably, recent celebrations of the anniversary of the War on Poverty, votes to extend unemployment insurance, discussions of a minimum wage hike,...
Focusing on how the handling of the shutdown affected, or did not affect, the vote this week ignores a more potent way in which it is impacting Republicans: making voters less likely to be Republicans in the first place.
Pre-election measurements strongly favor Gov. Christie's re-election despite that party ID favors his opponent in a state which has trended Democratic for 30 years, and which Christie won with less than 50 percent of the vote in 2009.
Outside of peak election season, internal campaign polls are used to inform long-term strategic decisions. But deciding when it is "normal" to poll is often a delicate balancing act.
Many on the right see SNAP rates as the problem, rather than hunger. Yet public opinion on SNAP is not nearly so radical.
To listen to Republicans and Republican-watchers talk about immigration, one would think the debate is about balancing Latinos and whites in a zero sum game of electoral politics. There is nothing in the polling to back this up.
Even if we count votes by hand, there will be mistakes. How can we have confidence in the results?