Pollsters don't typically report their expected turnout, but any number of polls are showing Democratic candidates doing better among registered voters than likely voters. The higher the turnout, the more the electorate will look like profile of registered voters, which could be decisive for who wins Iowa and Senate control.
Despite the public's overall belief in the Constitution as an enduring document, the data indicate that Americans are quite willing to use the amendment process to make policy changes.
On May 14, 1882, unionized workers in New York City held a parade and picnic, and the seeds of the Labor Day holiday were planted. About 50 years late...
Here's a tough question for the left: Can Republicans still be successful even as they continue to alienate a majority of the electorate? In midterms, the answer is undoubtedly yes.
The work that political pollsters do for free could be considered a benefit to society. People need to know how their political candidates are ranked by the public so that they can make better voting decisions and bring better-suited people to political power.
In the last decade, more women were killed by an intimate partner using a gun than troops killed in action in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Come November, women across party lines may reward candidates working to solve problems, rather than leaning on partisan perceptions.
Just as traditionalists once poo-pooed telephone surveys over face-to-face, so too must the modern American political pollster embrace new methodologies or risk finding themselves the punchline to the next Eric Cantor joke.
Obama has gained back all the ground he had lost and then some (well, "and then a little bit more" would be more accurate...). He still hasn't quite made it back to where his poll numbers were before the Obamacare website rollout, but if the trendlines continue in May, he is at least within reach of this goal for the first time since October.
Consistent with conventional wisdom, the youngest cohorts appear more Democratic-leaning than the national electorate as a whole, whereas the oldest cohorts appear more Republican-leaning.
Southern Whites didn't vote for Obama (and by association, won't vote for Democrats). So argues the New York Times' Nate Cohn in a provocative piece entitled "Southern Whites' Loyalty to G.O.P. Nearing That of Blacks to Democrats."
If we want a clearer picture of emerging trends and the next economy, we need to better understand the effects of automation on employment, sharing on existing business models and household production on political views.
There is more to our past success--and failures--than simply getting more women, minorities and young people to the polls. Turnout doesn't exist in a vacuum, and demographics aren't destiny.
Yes, Democratic turnout is comparatively lower than Republicans in midterm elections compared to presidential elections. Yes, Democrats are disadvantaged by this. Yes, Republicans are trying to restrict voting in the names of vote fraud and election uniformity. However, there is a glaring fact, come the light of day.
In today's world, quality pollsters must guarantee their polls include cellphones, and poll consumers should demand the same.
America's political class would prefer to keep the discourse safely symbolic, put the vote buying on the federal credit card and retire into a comfortable lobbying or association post. In sterile business-speak, our time horizons are misaligned. But reality intrudes.
Predictably, recent celebrations of the anniversary of the War on Poverty, votes to extend unemployment insurance, discussions of a minimum wage hike,...