Yes, Democratic turnout is comparatively lower than Republicans in midterm elections compared to presidential elections. Yes, Democrats are disadvantaged by this. Yes, Republicans are trying to restrict voting in the names of vote fraud and election uniformity. However, there is a glaring fact, come the light of day.
In today's world, quality pollsters must guarantee their polls include cellphones, and poll consumers should demand the same.
America's political class would prefer to keep the discourse safely symbolic, put the vote buying on the federal credit card and retire into a comfortable lobbying or association post. In sterile business-speak, our time horizons are misaligned. But reality intrudes.
Predictably, recent celebrations of the anniversary of the War on Poverty, votes to extend unemployment insurance, discussions of a minimum wage hike,...
Focusing on how the handling of the shutdown affected, or did not affect, the vote this week ignores a more potent way in which it is impacting Republicans: making voters less likely to be Republicans in the first place.
Pre-election measurements strongly favor Gov. Christie's re-election despite that party ID favors his opponent in a state which has trended Democratic for 30 years, and which Christie won with less than 50 percent of the vote in 2009.
Outside of peak election season, internal campaign polls are used to inform long-term strategic decisions. But deciding when it is "normal" to poll is often a delicate balancing act.
Many on the right see SNAP rates as the problem, rather than hunger. Yet public opinion on SNAP is not nearly so radical.
To listen to Republicans and Republican-watchers talk about immigration, one would think the debate is about balancing Latinos and whites in a zero sum game of electoral politics. There is nothing in the polling to back this up.
Even if we count votes by hand, there will be mistakes. How can we have confidence in the results?
it's not just Republican leaders who have more traditional views toward gender equality -- it may be men as a whole. As families and the workforce change, many men's views are not changing in kind.
While many would like to see women members of Congress at parity with men, many challenges remain to getting them even close. For Republican women, the challenges are even steeper.
Population trends can change and parties can re-position themselves, but after a decade of states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado becoming legitimate swing states, Georgia could certainly be the next state to move from red to purple -- and potentially blue.
The big news from the Current Population Survey will be that African-American turnout exceeded non-Hispanic white turnout. But I contend that really that happened first in 2008. The more important political story may be the dramatic decline in youth turnout, as it poses a challenge to Democrats and an opportunity for Republicans.
In the wake of the failure of the Senate to pass even a modest background check bill, many around the country are still scratching their heads. How co...
The origin of the problem that plagued Republican pollsters in 2012 (and to a lesser extent Democratic pollsters in 2010 and Republicans in 2008) is that we're really good at what has historically been the big question we've been asked to answer: How are people going to vote?