Over the remainder of the election campaign, HuffPost will be presenting graphical summaries of the modeling I've been doing behind-the-scenes for them over the last few months. Some additional background on how it all works seems warranted.
The Presidential campaign is now careening from convention to gaffe to speech to debate, and Congressional and Senate races are up on the air in earne...
A key question is whether the Obama surge in national polling is showing in the swing-states? With the conventions behind us, we can expect more swing state polling this week and beyond.
Two weeks of Republican and Democratic conventioneering concluded last night with President Obama's speech accepting the nomination of his party. Whether one considered his speech brilliant oratory or just a good effort, in many ways it was typical of speeches given by incumbent presidents.
The Romney vote share has been quietly and slowly increasing for a month. This under-the-radar shift is being driven in part by a simple line from a straightforward political speech. And it has the potential to be a game changer.
If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states.
The Obama-Romney margin at the national level, 1.3 percentage points as of today, is right at the edge of conventional levels of statistical significance; the probability that Obama leads Romney in national level voting intentions is about 80 percent.
If this election had been held in the fall of 2011, Obama would have lost. But in the late summer of 2012 he is in reasonably good shape.
Polling shows more support for stricter gun laws than press coverage would suggest. A few new polls show continued broad support for a variety of stronger gun laws, and for the presidential candidates to devote more time to this issue.
For the most part this is to be expected, as Obama has a significant advantage in the youth vote in the general electorate as well, but to see this preference among young service members and veterans may mean that the era when it seemed that Republicans had a lock on the military vote is coming to a close.
While there are ways to present information more effectively, the extensive social science research we review in our New America report suggests that misperceptions are very difficult to counter.
Republicans will almost certainly enjoy an advantage in turnout this year but it won't be because of their greater enthusiasm.
In the days ahead, we should not look at the polling coverage and simply throw up our hands. On the contrary, there are many ways to improve our current gun laws without infringing on the rights of law-abiding citizens.
With 106 days to go, the race for the Presidency is a slug fest that is only going to get tougher and tighter. Here is our up-to-the-minute assessment of the political and economic environment.
Forget his personality. Those pesky voters ultimately want to know what you are planning to do in that public office to alleviate their perennial misery. In this sense, Christie's conservative message is the right kind at the right time: fiscal.
Christie jumped on each news story, using it as further evidence that the legislature couldn't be trusted with taxpayer's money. With no one trying to defend the indefensible, Christie's had an appreciative audience to himself.