iOS app Android app

Electoral College

Jason Linkins

Mitt Romney Searches For A Former Clarity: The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For Sept. 14 | Jason Linkins | Posted 09.15.2012 | Politics

One of the essential charges that's been levied at Mitt Romney by Team Obama Re-Elect is that he has, thus far, refused to offer any specifics in term...

Model-Based Poll Averaging: How Do We Do It?

Simon Jackman | Posted 11.14.2012 | Politics
Simon Jackman

Over the remainder of the election campaign, HuffPost will be presenting graphical summaries of the modeling I've been doing behind-the-scenes for them over the last few months. Some additional background on how it all works seems warranted.

The Broken Electoral College: Tale of Two Carolinas

Rob Richie | Posted 09.11.2012 | Politics
Rob Richie

The vastly differing ways Obama's political team treats North Carolina and South Carolina helps to highlight how state laws governing the Electoral College hurt most states.

Obama's Biggest Lead Over Romney Since March

Simon Jackman | Posted 09.09.2012 | Politics
Simon Jackman

A key question is whether the Obama surge in national polling is showing in the swing-states? With the conventions behind us, we can expect more swing state polling this week and beyond.

Got Solutions? Beyond Denial and Toward Transformation (Part 2)

Dr. David J. Leonard | Posted 11.07.2012 | Black Voices
Dr. David J. Leonard

What I have in mind is an end to the war on drugs, the war on women, and the war on the poor; or maybe a program that actually works to address poverty and homelessness.

Pragmatic Racism

Robert Koehler | Posted 11.06.2012 | Politics
Robert Koehler

Winning -- securing power, implementing their agenda -- is the whole point, and that means they have no choice but to put the big squeeze on Democrat-leaning voting blocs. And the most obvious of those blocs are racial and ethnic.

The Nonpartisan Case for National Popular Vote: Al Gore, not GOP Platform, Gets It Right

Rob Richie | Posted 11.06.2012 | Politics
Rob Richie

Polls show that voters nationwide, including most Republicans, would prefer a national popular vote. Attempts to whip up a partisan fervor over NPV will ultimately fail.

Gore Proposes Sweeping Reform Of Electoral System

The Huffington Post | Nick Wing | Posted 09.05.2012 | Politics

Former Vice President Al Gore gave a strong endorsement on Thursday for deciding presidential elections according to the national popular vote. In ...

Three States Hold the Keys to the Election

David Rothschild | Posted 10.29.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states.

Jason Linkins

Here's To Shutting Up And Other Advice For The 'Era Of Backlash': The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For Aug. 24 | Jason Linkins | Posted 08.27.2012 | Politics

Let's take a moment to consider what the world was like on Aug 8, 2012. That morning, Missouri Representative Todd Akin woke up and greeted the day as...

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

Romney Will Be President, CU Professors' Model Predicts

The Huffington Post | Matt Ferner | Posted 08.23.2012 | Denver

Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will...

The New Segregation: How Voting Laws Could Destroy Republicans and America

Sanjay Sanghoee | Posted 10.17.2012 | Politics
Sanjay Sanghoee

The last week has been all about Paul Ryan: his infamous budget, his fiscal extremism, his disdain for social safety nets like Medicaid, Medicare, and...

Ryan Plus One Week: No Bounce

Simon Jackman | Posted 10.20.2012 | Politics
Simon Jackman

The Obama-Romney margin at the national level, 1.3 percentage points as of today, is right at the edge of conventional levels of statistical significance; the probability that Obama leads Romney in national level voting intentions is about 80 percent.

The GOP's Dismal Electoral Math

Eli Lehrer | Posted 10.11.2012 | Politics
Eli Lehrer

Romney's choice of Paul Ryan for Vice President gives him the clearly articulated agenda his campaign has lacked to date. But, in the long term, the GOP has to change if it wants to remain competitive for the White House.

2012 Electoral Math -- Ups and Downs

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.

The Anti-Democratic Electoral College

Howard Steven Friedman | Posted 10.05.2012 | Politics
Howard Steven Friedman

This reflects a basic pattern in American society where we want the latest technology for our computers, televisions and cell phones but we complacently trudge along using archaic voting technology while ignoring the improvements that have occurred since the late 1700s

America's Government Does Not Work Right Now

Allan Brawley | Posted 09.30.2012 | Politics
Allan Brawley

Is this a model that the rest of the world might admire and aspire to? Hardly. Are we a hopeless case? Certainly not. But we should dampen our national pride and curb our arrogance until we get our house in order.

Jason Linkins

Mitt Romney Searches For A Hit, Scores On An Error: The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For June 29, 2012 | Jason Linkins | Posted 07.20.2012 | Politics

As we've said before, the first set of tasks in a political campaign are simply summarized: Define yourself, define your opponent, define the stakes o...

2012 Electoral Math -- Mixed Pictures

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we checked in, two states have moved toward Romney, two states have moved toward Obama, and three states have mixed news.

On Greens and Libertarians

Peter Ubertaccio | Posted 09.15.2012 | Politics
Peter Ubertaccio

Why go through with a national campaign they are going to lose, that keeps them in fringe territory, and risks throwing the election to the party they most disagree with? Herewith a solution: don't.

Andrea Stone

Tie Presidential Election Looking More Plausible | Andrea Stone | Posted 07.11.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A new poll showing the presidential race stuck in a dead heat is prompting the political chattering class to fantasize about the prospec...

"Oregon, Oregon, Oregon"

Derrick Kitts | Posted 09.04.2012 | Politics
Derrick Kitts

Believe it or not, 2012 is shaping up to be all about the Beaver State. With innocuous races for the Oregon legislature and an under the radar non-partisan race for statewide office, Oregon is the sleeper state up for grabs in 2012.

Jason Linkins

Health Care Reform Reshuffles The Presidential Race | Jason Linkins | Posted 07.01.2012 | Politics

Your Speculatroners knew that we'd be leading off our wrap-up of this week in the 2012 campaign with a discussion of the Supreme Court's ruling on hea...

Popular Vote Speculation Interlude

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.27.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

I like to engage in the sheerest of blue-sky speculation about possible interesting outcomes that could happen. This time around, the scenario I've been hearing bandied about is that Barack Obama wins the Electoral College vote, but Mitt Romney wins the popular vote.