In recent years, private-sector forecasters have been surprisingly accurate at forecasting changes in the unemployment rate, but they have been equally inaccurate when forecasting changes in the federal funds rate, the baseline interest rate controlled by the Fed.
So far this year, the mid-cap banks are outperforming their behemoth cousins, and we now may know why. The big question, though, is how detrimental have these new regulations been to the economic recovery?
Our global economy is still in flux, and much of the world is "hooked" on cheap money. The abrupt change or repricing of those conditions could lead to severe volatility in financial markets.
Forces at work from Tokyo to Kiev have been roiling the U.S. stock market for a couple of week. But the financial sushi that is now on the menu in Japan, and Russia's "Crimea of the Century" are only part of the story.
The drag created by such big amounts of student debt is likely to reverberate throughout the economy for many years to come. This is just another reason we expect to remain stuck in a long period of sub-par economic growth.
We're beginning to see a shift in how money moves. Similar to the very efficient corporate markets like bond trading and commercial paper, money is beginning to move to consumers too.
The recent spat between the Federal Reserve and Citigroup underscores the complexity of today's banking balance sheets. The episode is a warning shot across the bows of regulators.
Paul Ryan has issued a new proposal to cut the budget even further, to the point where most unemployment programs will be half the size that they were during the Reagan administration. This is a cruel, counterproductive path we are on, and that is not a statement of mere opinion.
For the first time since the '30s, the 99 percent stood up and pointed out the real culprits -- Wall Street and the politicians they own. People listened, they heard, and began to believe.
The U.S. economy and its financial markets continue to plow ahead, ostensibly immune to any effects of monetary tapering. Instead, the financial gods seem to be directing their fury towards emerging markets.
Henry Ford said, "It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there wou...
I believe that the Fed has overreached in its monetary policy not just in response to the latest crisis, but pretty consistently over the 15-20 years. In an effort to lessen the effects of (inevitable) economic downturns, the Fed (and other central banks) has caused extreme financial distortions and dislocations.
Despite Yellen's evident caution and discomfort in expressing any specific quantitative definition of "considerable period," the stock and bond markets chose to take Yellen ultra-literally about the six months and turned suddenly and violently downward.
Equities sold off while the yield curve flattened as a result of a selloff in shorter maturities. Why?
The moment that the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting ended, and its comments were released, interest rates rose. Why?
"[Goldman Sachs] is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like mo...