While these predictions focus more on mainstream movies, it is not necessarily the ones dominating the main categories: Life of Pi leads in three, Zero Dark Thirty in three, Anna Karenina in two, and Lincoln in only one.
I could write numerous articles on how Tarantino and DiCaprio got the shaft, how Christopher Nolan got cheated, and how Looper didn't even get a best original screenplay nomination, but I'll stick to just the Best Picture category to tear apart.
Branching out from politics and economics, I have been examining Oscar predictions over the last few weeks. While I approach the science of predictions the same way for both political elections and the Oscars, there are some key differences.
This year, it's looking as if I won't be buying tickets to most of the nominees for Best Picture, because I have this built-in protective mechanism which keeps me away from exceptionally violent films.
Politicians in Washington may be patting themselves on the back for preventing a fall off what they called the nation's "fiscal cliff" but, really, what they have done is just put off the hard decisions until another day.
In our initial likelihoods of victory for the big six categories, Lincoln is our most likely winner in three: best actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) at near certainty, best picture at 94 percent, and best director (Steven Spielberg) at 70 percent.
As to the DGA awards, Hooper joins Steven Spielberg, Kathryn Bigelow, Ang Lee, and Ben Affleck for this honor. Omitted were Quentin Tarantino, Paul Thomas Anderson, and most serious, a favorite: David O. Russell.
To my mind, we need some more "good" fairy tales, in that we need the inspiration to work at the realities of our selves, and of course each other, and of course the larger world. The giving it up to God almost spoiled my enjoyment of the movie.