Nate Silver

300 Anti-War Voters Can Win the Iowa Referendum Against War With Iran

Robert Naiman | Posted 03.03.2012

Read More: Aipac, Iraq War, Nate Silver, Iowa Caucus, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, War With Iran, Joe Lieberman, Politics News

This is how I see the Iowa caucus: as a referendum against the campaign for war with Iran. We have a unique opportunity Tuesday in Iowa to defeat the warmongers.

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Dewey Defeats Truman: CNN Excludes Democrats and Independents From Iowa Caucus Poll

Robert Naiman | Posted 02.28.2012

Read More: Rick Santorum, Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Cnn, Polling, 2012 Election, Ron Paul. Elections 2012, Iowa Caucus 2012, Media News

To present a poll of people limited to those currently registered as Republicans as predictive implies a belief that on caucus day, there will not be a significant group of people there who are not now registered as Republicans. But no one outside of CNN believes this.

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If Ron Paul Wins Iowa, Antiwar Democrats and Independents Likely to Provide Margin of Victory

Robert Naiman | Posted 02.22.2012

Read More: Nate Silver, Independents, Polling, Public Policy Polling, Activism, Ron Paul, Iowa Caucuses, Democrats, Peace, Video, Politics News

If the election were held today, and this poll were predictive of the result, then exit polling would show that the margin of victory for Ron Paul was provided by antiwar Democrats and independents.

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Reverse Newtmentum: What to Make of Gingrich's Fall in the Polls?

Michael J.W. Stickings | Posted 02.15.2012

Read More: Republican Presidential Candidate, Peter King, Polls, Nate Silver, Chris Christie, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Iowa Caucuses, Newt Gingrich, Republican Party, Republicans, Politics News

I'm not sure of anything when it comes to the ongoing craziness of the Republican race. For all I know, Chris Christie will be anointed the nominee at a brokered convention next year. I just don't think we can count out The Newt quite yet.

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A President On the Verge of a Political Breakdown

Richard (RJ) Eskow | Posted 09.07.2011

Read More: Social Security, Austan Goolsbee, Sheldon Whitehouse, Eric Kingson, Strenthen Social Security, Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama, Chained CPI, Ed Schultz, Paul Krugman, Nate Silver, Politics News

The president and his team have a clear choice: They can either retreat from this position and fight aggressively for Social Security and other popular programs, or they can stake his re-election on a misguided roll of the dice.

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The GOP Has an Ohio-Sized Demographic Problem

Asher Smith | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Politics News, John Kasich, Nate Silver, Republican Party, Demographics, Ohio Governor, Voting Demographics, Latino Voters, Politics News

Whatever gains the GOP makes in year-by-year elections, it still seems as if they're losing the long game as far as demographics are concerned.

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In Blue Dog Battle, Progressives Are (Half) Right

Ari Melber | Posted 05.25.2011

The Blue Dogs are right about campaign strategy in some conservative districts -- but they greatly overstate their case. Granularity is usually lost in our political narrative, and the numbers suggest subtle, diverging politics.

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Predictions and Prognostications: Can the Democrats Possibly Do Better Than Expected?

Michael J.W. Stickings | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Polls, Nate Silver, Charlie Cook, Conservatives, Democrats, 2010 Elections, Republicans, Politics News

It will not go well tonight for the Democrats, even if they do a little better than expected. And it could be really, really bad if the polls are right and Democrats don't turn out in large numbers.

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Chet Edwards In Final Stretch

Nate Nance | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Chet Edwards, Bill Flores, Nate Silver, eyesandears2010, Democratic Party, President Obama, Texas, Republican Party, Congress, New York Times, Home News

On Election Day, Chet Edwards hopes he can muster enough support to retain his seat. Currently his challenger, Bill Flores, is leading.

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What We Will Learn Today: A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand

Howard Steven Friedman | Posted 05.25.2011

We'll definitely learn plenty today. We'll learn whether the combination of art and science in polling resulted in accurate predictions.

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WATCH: Arianna And Nate Silver On The Rally To Restore Sanity, Latest Election Trends

Huff TV | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Msnbc, The Last Word, Rally to Restore Sanity, Nate Silver, Lawrence O'Donnell, Arianna, Jon Stewart, 2010 Elections, Stephen Colbert, Keith Olbermann, Politics News

Arianna appeared on MSNBC's "The Last Word" Monday night to discuss the Rally to Restore Sanity and the latest election trends with host Lawrence O'Do...

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Midterm Madness: Pollsters Put Republicans On Top In Illinois

Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Polls, Illinois Senate Race, Illinois Governors Race, Mark Kirk, Scott Brown, President Obama, Illinois Races, Nate Silver, Illinois Politics, Alexi Giannoulias, Pat Quinn, Midterm Elections, Barack Obama, Polling, 2010 Midterm Elections, Bill Brady, Chicago News

On Sunday morning, President Obama joined Governor Pat Quinn and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias for breakfast at Valois Cafeteria in Hyde Park. Sp...

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A Short and Clear Guide to What a Midterm Vote Really Means

Mitchell Bard | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: 14th Amendment, Lies, House of Representatives, Karl Rove, Social Security, Department of Education, 17th Amendment, Death Panels, George W. Bush, Christine O'donnell, Privatizing Social Security, Citizens United, Bush Economic Policies, Nate Silver, U.S. Senate, Midterm Elections, Koch Brothers, Tax Cuts for the Wealthy, Spending Cuts, Ken Buck, Unemployment Insurance, Deregulation, Tax Cuts, Midterms, Chamber of Commerce, Huffington Post, Sharron Angle, Ron Johnson, Tea Party, Republicans, Politics News

When you pull a lever on Tuesday, you may think you are voting for one candidate or another, but, in the big picture, the vote won't be for a person. Instead, you will be voting based on these opposing principles.

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Shorting the Hype of a Candidate with Momentum

Steve Schohn | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: California Senate Race, Nate Silver, Momentum, News Analysis, 2010 Elections, Media Analysis, Illinois Senate Race, Connecticut Senate Race, Colorado Senate Race, Politics News

"You would have done very well so far this cycle shorting the hype that a candidate has 'momentum'. Yes, I'm looking at you, Connecticut." --Nate Si...

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Peaceful, Rational America? Know ThySelf as a Nation of Violence and Fear

Howard Steven Friedman | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Tea Party Movement, White House, Bill Clinton, Tea Party, President Obama, Midterm Elections, Sharron Angle, Obama Administration, Obama, Sanity Bus, Newt Gingrich, Democratic Party, Joy Behar, Democrats, Gop, Barack Obama, Politics News, Rally to Restore Sanity, U.S. Senate, Nate Silver, Jon Stewart, Contract With America, New York Times, House of Representatives, Health Care Reform, Medicare, Lauren Valle, Republicans, Huffington Post Sanity Bus, 2010 Midterm Elections, Senate Races, Republican Party, Senate, Tim Proffit, Politics News

The "Rally to Restore Sanity" and videos of a Move-On supporter being stomped are prompting calls for rational political discussion and a restoration ...

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Midterm-Shmidterm: Democratic White House Déjà Vu

Howard Steven Friedman | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Bill Clinton, White House, House of Representatives, President Obama, Senate Races, Obama Administration, Obama, Democrats, Democratic Party, Contract With America, Barack Obama, Tea Party Movement, Nate Silver, Senate, U.S. Senate, Health Care Reform, Gop, New York Times, Medicare, Newt Gingrich, Tea Party, Republican Party, Republicans, Midterm Elections, 2010 Midterm Elections, Politics News

The polls are humming with Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/and much of the polling community predicting about a 50 vote Republica...

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Does Early Voting Show Republican Enthusiasm?

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: 2010 Midterm Elections, Nate Silver, Pollster Analysis, Early Voting, Pollster, Statistics, Politics News

Nate Silver has posted an analysis of early voting partisan registration statistics, in states that report them, drawing upon a story by Molly Ball in Politco. Here are the three most damning errors in Nate's and Molly's analyses.

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Two Weeks Out -- Nine Reasons Why Democrats Will Keep Control of the House

Robert Creamer | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Pelosi, Nate Silver, Mid-Term Elections, Pollster.com, fivethirtyeight.com, Get Out the Vote, Paul Ryan, Democrats, Boehner, Mark Blumenthal, Republicans, Politics News

With two weeks to go in the 2010 mid-term elections there are a number of good reasons to believe -- contrary to most conventional wisdom -- that Democrats will still control the House once the smoke clears from the electoral battlefield.

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Yes, We Still Post 'Outliers"

Huffington Post | Emily Swanson | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Political Ideology, Nate Silver, Pledge to America, Pollster Analysis, Democratic Congress, Polling, Charlie Cook, Likely Voter Models, Polling Averages, Republican Congress, Likely Voters, Enthusiasm Gap, Pollster, Politics News

Editor's note for those new to Pollster: 'Outliers' is a feature we ordinarily try to post on a near daily basis. Our aim is to point to analysis else...

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Nate Silver: Jerry Brown Now 3 To 1 Favorite To Win

Huffington Post | Billy Silverman | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Nate Silver, Meg Whitman, California Governor's Race, Jerry Brown, Los Angeles News

FiveThirtyEight (and now NY Times) polling whiz Nate Silver has crunched the latest numbers in the California Governor's race, and has concluded that ...

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Gambling On The Illinois Governor Race? Bill Brady Looking Like A Safe Bet

Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Nate Silver, Illinois Senate Race, Alexi Giannoulias, Pat Quinn, Mark Kirk, Illinois Governor Race, Bill Brady, Illinois Governor, Chicago News

On Labor Day, President Obama made an impassioned plea to progressives--hoping they will vote in the midterm elections and avoid giving Republicans "t...

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Pollster's Mark Blumenthal Challenges Nate Silver's Method At FiveThirtyEight

Pollster.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Polling Methodology, Polls, Elections, Nate Silver, Statistics, fivethirtyeight.com, Pollster.com, Fivethirtyeight, Methodology, Mark Blumenthal, Pollster, Accuracy, Politics News

For better or worse, FiveThirtyEight's prominence makes these ratings central to our conversation about how to interpret and aggregate polls, and I ha...

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NYT Picks Up Nate Silver, To Host FiveThirtyEight.com

New York Times | BRIAN STELTER | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Nate Silver New York Times, New York Times, Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com, Media News

The New York Times said Thursday that it would begin hosting the popular blog FiveThirtyEight and make its founder, Nate Silver, a regular contributor...

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A Note to Nate

John Zogby | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: 538.Com, Nate Silver, Polling, fivethirtyeight.com, Online Polls, Oscar Predictions, New York Times, Obama Approval, UK Election, Opinion Polling, Zogby Poll, 2008 Election, Nate Silver Oscar Predictions, Politics News

Congratulations to you, Nate Silver. To date you have many fans. But remember that you are one election away from being a mere mortal like the rest of us.

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Rivers: Random Samples and Research 2000

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Daily Kos, Nate Silver, research2000, Sampling, Pollster, Politics News

Douglas Rivers is president and CEO of YouGov/Polimetrix and a professor of political science and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Instit...

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