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Nate Silver

Trump's Speech... When He Quits The Race

Ryan Casey | Posted 07.22.2016 | Politics
Ryan Casey

If there is a single key to understanding what motivates Donald Trump -- that is, other than his extreme narcissism -- it is his determination to avoid, at all costs, the pain of humiliation.

Preparing for a Trump Presidency

Hoyt Hilsman | Posted 07.20.2016 | Politics
Hoyt Hilsman

Although we progressives don't like to contemplate the prospect of a Trump presidency, it would be wise to at least be prepared for such an eventualit...

Bernie Manages To Turn A Win Into A Loss

Peter D. Rosenstein | Posted 07.03.2016 | Politics
Peter D. Rosenstein

He should have taken a cue from how Hillary handled her loss to Obama in 2008 when she came away looking like a star, and a star with power. Instead he frittered away his chances, rather whining his way close to irrelevance.

HUFFPOLLSTER: Nate Silver Says Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 06.30.2016 | Politics

Donald Trump’s electoral chances don’t look great right now, but he could attract some working-class Americans who typically vote Democratic. Amer...

Hey GOP, Which White Voters?

Steven Conn | Posted 06.13.2016 | Politics
Steven Conn

Whatever complaints one might have about the economic policies favored by Democrats over the last 50 years, no one outside the American Enterprise Institute and Paul Ryan's office seriously believes that Republican economics have been better for the white working-class.

Libertarianism: Dynamite or Dud?

James Peron | Posted 06.03.2016 | Politics
James Peron

Over at CBS, Will Rahn has a go at libertarians. He calls Libertarian presidential candidate Gov. Gary Johnson a "bit of an oddball," but never actually explains why.

Friday Talking Points -- Our 'Dopey Donald' Contest

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.13.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Pretty much every pundit in the mainstream media got down on their knees and thanked a recent poll which showed Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton neck-and-neck in three key swing states this week, because they truly want this gravy train to continue.

Friday Talking Points -- It's My Party and I'll Cry If I Want To

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.06.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

It's been a pretty momentous week in the history of American politics, folks. The Republican Party is going to nominate Donald Trump to run for the highest office in the land. Politics and entertainment are now one.

Uranus, Factor X Planet: An Unknown Unknown

Constance Stellas | Posted 05.06.2016 | Entertainment
Constance Stellas

Have you ever noticed that some people have out of the blue events in their lives while other people have a more moderate life experience? In an astrology chart the planet that symbolizes these sudden unexpected events is Uranus, the so called cataclysmic planet.

How Often Does Donald Trump Wash His Hands?

Rob Brooks | Posted 04.04.2016 | Politics
Rob Brooks

Move over Nate Silver! The statistician and author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- But Some Don't may have called 49 out of 50 states right in the 2012 US Presidential election. But today I note that my predictions for the 2014 mid-term elections were 100 percent correct.

Nate Silver Could Be Dead Wrong About Bernie Sanders

Taylor Gipple | Posted 02.01.2016 | Politics
Taylor Gipple

if Sanders actually does win Iowa and New Hampshire, the rest of Silver's state forecasts will change, which could result in his new model making Hillary Clinton the underdog.

Bernie Sanders Reflects a Changing U.S. Religiosity

David Shorter | Posted 01.29.2016 | Religion
David Shorter

After Bernie Sanders said his religious beliefs were nondenominational, it took 48 hours for a major news outlet, the Washington Post, to question whether Bernie Sanders could win a general election with his unconventional religious affiliation.

Nate Silver: The Republican Party May Be Failing

FiveThirtyEighty | Jade Walker | Posted 01.25.2016 | Politics

“The Party Decides,” the 2008 book by the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller, has probably been both the mos...

Debate reinforces Sanders is the Wrong Choice for Democrats Today

Peter D. Rosenstein | Posted 01.18.2016 | Politics
Peter D. Rosenstein

If Bernie Sanders is nominated by the Democratic Party I will support him. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail. Many of the ideas he campaigns on sound...

2016 The Year of Powerful Women in Politics

Juanita MORE! | Posted 01.08.2016 | Politics
Juanita MORE!

2016, is of course a wildly important political year, especially with the presidential primaries in full swing. First and foremost, to be fair, while I love dear Bernie, I see Hillary as the Democrat's nominee.

Nate Silver: Vox Just Writes 'Hot Takes' On Wikipedia Articles

The Huffington Post | Gabriel Arana | Posted 11.10.2015 | Media

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver is accusing Vox of participating in “hot take” journalism and basing its articles on Wikipedia entries. He has been ...

Why Does FiveThirtyEight Get Bernie Sanders So Wrong?

Liam Miller | Posted 08.12.2015 | Politics
Liam Miller

Here's the thing: Sanders is an anomaly -- which is to say -- he literally defies the rules. There are a lot of assumptions that go into making up those rules. Sanders has made a career out of challenging political norms and expectations.

Nate Silver Slams Vox For Aggregating Bill Cosby Story

The Huffington Post | Gabriel Arana | Posted 07.29.2015 | Media

The feud between stats guru Nate Silver and Vox.com continues. On Sunday, Vox writer German Lopez published an aggregated post about New York magazine...

What Nate Silver's Analysis Misses About 2016

Greg Speed | Posted 06.05.2016 | Politics
Greg Speed

Psychology matters in elections. Throughout my career I've seen how having confidence from start to finish impacts campaigns. Understanding your strengths puts the wind at your back. It emboldens candidates and allies, and energizes volunteers, donors and supporters. And it can set the stage for sweeping victories.

Accepting the Reality That Hillary Is Anything But Inevitable

Nick Desai | Posted 05.25.2016 | Politics
Nick Desai

It isn't like Hillary was the fresh new upstart even in 2008. In fact, she was the renowned name, the unsinkable ship, and the candidate to beat. Even then, with the Clinton machine and virtually unlimited financial support, she was beat.

Gabriel Arana

538's Nate Silver To Vox: Quit Jacking Our Stuff

HuffingtonPost.com | Gabriel Arana | Posted 04.13.2015 | Media

Numbers guru Nate Silver accused news site Vox.com of repurposing its maps without attribution on Twitter Monday, saying only “about 20%” of the m...

Truths & Illusions: The Profound Importance of Thinking Fast and Slow

Ahmad Khan | Posted 06.09.2015 | Business
Ahmad Khan

In 2002, the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics was oddly enough awarded to a classically trained psychologist. Daniel Kahneman is considered to be one of the world's most influential individuals in the field and is the founder of a unique and revolutionary new field known as Behavioral Economics.

ABC News Taps Nate Silver For Election Coverage

The Huffington Post | Jackson Connor | Posted 11.04.2014 | Media

Elections are polling genius and FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver's bread and butter. In 2008 he famously predicted the winner of the presi...

Stampede to the Exit

Richard J. Rosendall | Posted 12.24.2014 | Politics
Richard J. Rosendall

Thanks to a Tar Heel friend who alerted me to issue ads in the North Carolina senate race, I now know that "for six years the policies of Barack Obama and Kay Hagan have dominated Washington." Karl Rove's American Crossroads, you see, is touting Republican Thom Tillis.

Senate Shaping Up 50-50

Brent Budowsky | Posted 12.08.2014 | Politics
Brent Budowsky

When the new Senate convenes next year, the most influential person on Capitol Hill could be Greg Orman, the independent candidate for senator from Kansas, who I predict today will be elected in November.