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Nate Silver

Why Does FiveThirtyEight Get Bernie Sanders So Wrong?

Liam Miller | Posted 08.12.2015 | Politics
Liam Miller

Here's the thing: Sanders is an anomaly -- which is to say -- he literally defies the rules. There are a lot of assumptions that go into making up those rules. Sanders has made a career out of challenging political norms and expectations.

Nate Silver Slams Vox For Aggregating Bill Cosby Story

The Huffington Post | Gabriel Arana | Posted 07.29.2015 | Media

The feud between stats guru Nate Silver and continues. On Sunday, Vox writer German Lopez published an aggregated post about Ne...

What Nate Silver's Analysis Misses About 2016

Greg Speed | Posted 06.05.2015 | Politics
Greg Speed

Psychology matters in elections. Throughout my career I've seen how having confidence from start to finish impacts campaigns. Understanding your strengths puts the wind at your back. It emboldens candidates and allies, and energizes volunteers, donors and supporters. And it can set the stage for sweeping victories.

Accepting the Reality That Hillary Is Anything But Inevitable

Nick Desai | Posted 05.26.2015 | Politics
Nick Desai

It isn't like Hillary was the fresh new upstart even in 2008. In fact, she was the renowned name, the unsinkable ship, and the candidate to beat. Even then, with the Clinton machine and virtually unlimited financial support, she was beat.

Gabriel Arana

538's Nate Silver To Vox: Quit Jacking Our Stuff | Gabriel Arana | Posted 04.13.2015 | Media

Numbers guru Nate Silver accused news site of repurposing its maps without attribution on Twitter Monday, saying only “about 20%” of the m...

Truths & Illusions: The Profound Importance of Thinking Fast and Slow

Ahmad Khan | Posted 06.09.2015 | Business
Ahmad Khan

In 2002, the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics was oddly enough awarded to a classically trained psychologist. Daniel Kahneman is considered to be one of the world's most influential individuals in the field and is the founder of a unique and revolutionary new field known as Behavioral Economics.

ABC News Taps Nate Silver For Election Coverage

The Huffington Post | Jackson Connor | Posted 11.04.2014 | Media

Elections are polling genius and FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver's bread and butter. In 2008 he famously predicted the winner of the presi...

Stampede to the Exit

Richard J. Rosendall | Posted 12.24.2014 | Politics
Richard J. Rosendall

Thanks to a Tar Heel friend who alerted me to issue ads in the North Carolina senate race, I now know that "for six years the policies of Barack Obama and Kay Hagan have dominated Washington." Karl Rove's American Crossroads, you see, is touting Republican Thom Tillis.

Senate Shaping Up 50-50

Brent Budowsky | Posted 12.08.2014 | Politics
Brent Budowsky

When the new Senate convenes next year, the most influential person on Capitol Hill could be Greg Orman, the independent candidate for senator from Kansas, who I predict today will be elected in November.

More Drama from the Polls: What Have We Really Learned?

David Belk | Posted 12.05.2014 | Politics
David Belk

What can we learn from the mess of the 2012 election? Could someone who isn't Nate Silver use past polling errors to make predictions for this next election? It's time to start looking at the old polling data to see what might have gone wrong.

Are Accurate Polls Really Accurate?

John Garrett | Posted 12.02.2014 | Politics
John Garrett

Regardless of how they choose to, pollsters are going to be forced to innovate if they want to continue providing accurate advice to their candidates and campaigns.

REPORT: Nate Silver's Site 'A Disaster'

The Huffington Post | Jack Mirkinson | Posted 09.30.2014 | Media

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website launched with much fanfare back in March. Silver was seen as a new media sensation, someone prepared to upend th...

Book Review: Dataclysm

Phil Simon | Posted 11.13.2014 | Books
Phil Simon

Many books have been written about Big Data, and I'm the author of two of them. While the topic is well trodden, we understand far less about what companies are actually doing with this information.

Roger Pielke, Jr. leaves FiveThirtyEight, and What It Means for Changing the Media on Global Warming

Daniel Kessler | Posted 10.04.2014 | Green
Daniel Kessler

Our efforts aren't about shutting down debate. Quite the opposite. We're asking for a more robust debate that begins with an accurate accounting of the facts and greater accountability when things go wrong.

The Data Shows: Is 2014 Really "The Year of the Woman"?

Jeanne Zaino | Posted 08.13.2014 | Politics
Jeanne Zaino

Do female candidates really hold the future of the Senate in their hands? Is the partisan makeup of the Senate intimately tied to the fate of female candidates making this truly "the Year of the Woman?"

Edie Windsor Thinks We Can Expect Marriage Equality Across The 50 States By 2024

The Huffington Post | Natasha Bach | Posted 06.06.2014 | Politics

Edie Windsor, plaintiff in the historic Supreme Court Defense of Marriage Act case, discussed her hopes for the legalization of gay marriage across al...

What The Washington Post and FiveThirtyEight Have in Common on Climate Change

Daniel Kessler | Posted 06.04.2014 | Green
Daniel Kessler

The remedies to their common problem should be the same for both The Post and FiveThirtyEight. Both must correct the record and be forceful when they do. This means publishing a correction connected to the original piece.

Michael Calderone

FiveThirtyEight Apologizes On Behalf Of Controversial Climate Science Writer | Michael Calderone | Posted 03.28.2014 | Media

NEW YORK -- Two prominent climate scientists say Roger Pielke Jr., a controversial writer at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site, sent emails threat...

Nate Silver Admits That Pretty Much Everyone Didn't Like Climate Change Piece

Posted 03.28.2014 | Green

Statistician Nate Silver acknowledged to Jon Stewart Thursday night that a climate change piece on his new site FiveThirtyEight was facing some seriou...

Statistics and Climate Science: Roger Pielke Missed the Mark

John P. Abraham, Ph.D. | Posted 05.27.2014 | Green
John P. Abraham, Ph.D.

In his inaugural post on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, Roger Pielke Jr. put forth a number of arguments suggesting that many changes to extreme weather are not occurring as our climate changes.

Nate Silver Launches Bitter Attack On Paul Krugman

The Huffington Post | Jack Mirkinson | Posted 03.27.2014 | Media

Along with the Jets and the Sharks, and the Hatfields and McCoys, and the Giants and Dodgers, we can now add Nate Silver and Paul Krugman to the list ...

Nate Silver's Bizarre Swipe At Paul Krugman

Slate | Posted 03.26.2014 | Media

Paul Krugman has greeted the launch of with disappointment and dread, and today Nate Silver slaps him right back....

Nate Silver Delivers Big Blow To Democrats

The Huffington Post | Jack Mirkinson | Posted 03.24.2014 | Media

Cue the hand-wringing in Democratic circles everywhere: Nate Silver says the GOP will probably re-take the Senate in November's elections. After he...

A Few Numbers for Nate Silver and Roger Pielke Jr. on Climate Change

Daniel Kessler | Posted 05.20.2014 | Green
Daniel Kessler

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website got off to a bad start with the hiring of Roger Pielke, Jr, one of the country's leading tricksters on climate change.

Facility With Data: Necessary But Insufficient

Phil Simon | Posted 05.18.2014 | Business
Phil Simon

After a reboot and move to ESPN, FiveThirtyEight is back online. Rock star Nate Silver announced yesterday that "It's time for us to start making the ...