How much of a leap is it to suppose that telling people who's winning the week before the election makes the well-known bandwagon effect influence those who struggle with their polling decisions?
While numerous studies have documented the existence of the bandwagon effect in the political domain, very few have attempted to understand the underlying mechanisms of why people conform to prevailing popular opinion.
There is some variation in the results of national polls that have been released in the past week or two but all of them show the margin between Romney and Obama to be within two or three points one way or the other. All of them with one exception, that is -- the Gallup tracking poll.
Further "education" on climate science alone is unlikely to make inroads with people who have already decided that climate change is not real or not human-induced.
As far as I can tell, the September-October shift is the largest recorded by the Pew trend line. But is it a real surge?
Conservatives tend to believe that the 2010 midterms showed that the majority of the country had "figured out" who Obama really was and had rejected him. That is simply a false presumption.
My Facebook feed, email inbox, and the chatter I hear in conservative meetings are all telling me the same thing: the polls -- all of them -- are wron...
Set against this context, it is not unreasonable to ask if the polls could be wrong. But based on the evidence, it would be unreasonable to conclude that the polls are giving us a qualitatively incorrect impression of how the election is shaping up.
By almost a 3-to-1 margin (56 to 20 percent), American voters are deeply concerned that the lives of American children have become worse over the last decade.
Just like the Apollo-Rocky II Superfight, the president's team has slogged it out and not just clawed back into the fight, but now has Romney on the ropes. But Romney is still standing, and there's a bunch of time left before the final bell.
Mitt Romney's gaffes keep pumping air under Barack Obama's convention bounce, and Republicans say that the same polls that liberals complained about in 2004 are, you guessed it, "skewed."
Conservative blogger Dean Chambers has started a new polling website that he claims takes the slant out of liberal mainstream media polls. The result? Now Romney is leading Obama by 7.8 points.
Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win. Here's how the election would break down if held today.
It's a provocative headline from Politico: "Veterans Retreating from President Obama." Provocative, but not exactly true.
Obama is ahead in every single battleground state -- whether by a hair or outside the margin of error. This isn't to suggest that every state will go his way, but this does say something about the state of the race.
Though scores of Republicans are looking at poll numbers and moving to the sidelines or outright jumping ship, at least two imaginative Romney cheerleader/pundits -- Hugh Hewitt and Dick Morris -- maintain a different view. They say Romney already is ahead.