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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polling Gives Michelle Nunn An Edge In Georgia | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.24.2014 | Politics

New polls show Democrat Michelle Nunn with the edge in Georgia and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen hanging on in New Hampshire. The American public remains deeply...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Surveys Give GOP The Edge In Colorado | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.23.2014 | Politics

Two more polls give the Republican the upper hand in Colorado. We take a closer look at the unusual methods of one of them. And most Americans still a...

The American Public's Attitudes Toward Protest Movements

Paul Herrnson | Posted 10.23.2014 | Politics
Paul Herrnson

Groups across the political spectrum have used rallies, marches, and picket lines to bring their agendas to the attention of the media, government and fellow citizens. But public attitudes about this form of political engagement have historically been mixed at best.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: This Year's Gubernatorial Races Get Even More Competitive | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.22.2014 | Politics

Many of this year's gubernatorial races remain exceptionally close. Most Americans think the GOP will win the Senate. And do early voting numbers real...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Latest Kansas Senate Survey Shows A Tie | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.21.2014 | Politics

A new poll finds a tie in the Kansas Senate race. Americans' media habits are polarized, but few live in ideological bubbles. And while pollsters won'...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Democrats' Internal Polls Challenge Colorado Conventional Wisdom | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.20.2014 | Politics

Democrats produce two polls showing their candidate with an edge in the Colorado Senate race. Nearly 2 million Americans have already voted nationwide...

Early Voting Rounding the Bend

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 10.20.2014 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

With early voting in full swing, more than 1.9 million people have cast a ballot in the 2014 midterm elections. I track early voting statistics here. Predictably, dueling spin about early voting has emerged from the Democratic and Republican camps.

Lessons Not Learned: Polling Latino Voters, 2014 Colorado Edition

Latino Decisions | Posted 10.17.2014 | Politics
Latino Decisions

The challenges of polling Latino voters have received less attention in 2014, because there are fewer competitive states and districts this cycles where Latinos are positioned to be influential. A notable exception is Colorado.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Senate Survey Trends Are Good News For The GOP | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.17.2014 | Politics

Republicans have made modest but important gains in a handful of key swing states. A majority of Americans support recent judicial decisions in favor ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: What Does It Mean If This Year's Polls Are Wrong? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.16.2014 | Politics

We take a closer look at the likelihood that this year's polling could be wrong. Prominent modelers offer advice on how to interpret their work. And m...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Have Polls Been Understating Dems' Chances In Georgia? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.15.2014 | Politics

Democrats get some good news from two new polls from Georgia, but surveys elsewhere continue to show a GOP advantage in the battle for the Senate. Two...

Money, Politics and the American Public

Paul Herrnson | Posted 10.14.2014 | Politics
Paul Herrnson

The influence of money in politics in general and campaigns in particular is a staple of op-ed writers, late-night comedians and armchair pundits. As another Federal Election Commission reporting deadline looms, how bad does the public really think the problem is -- and what are they willing to do about it?

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Much Does A 62 Percent Win Chance Mean For The GOP? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.14.2014 | Politics

Our Senate forecast tips toward the GOP, but history polling averages can still miss in close races. Surveys find little love for President Obama in s...

Florida Polls Are Missing the Latino Vote and Thus the True Statewide Spread Between Crist and Scott

Latino Decisions | Posted 10.13.2014 | Politics
Latino Decisions

Polling only in English adds a significant conservative skew, and this is especially risky in Florida. Why? Because Florida has the highest share of Spanish speakers among Latino U.S. citizens, in particular a high percentage of Puerto Rican-born voters.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Florida Polls Show Small Gain For Charlie Crist | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.10.2014 | Politics

Florida polling shows a small shift toward the Democrat. Most midterm voters have already made up their minds. And Dana Milbank is more certain than h...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Two New Surveys Take On The Last Frontier | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.09.2014 | Politics

Republicans get good polling news in Alaska and the other Senate battlegrounds. Pat Roberts sees some better numbers in Kansas. And even by midterm st...

Senate Shaping Up 50-50

Brent Budowsky | Posted 10.08.2014 | Politics
Brent Budowsky

When the new Senate convenes next year, the most influential person on Capitol Hill could be Greg Orman, the independent candidate for senator from Kansas, who I predict today will be elected in November.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Don't Count On This Year's Elections Ending In November | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.08.2014 | Politics

Five states offer reasons not to stay up late on November 4. Gubernatorial races in Connecticut and Massachusetts continue to look like nailbiters. An...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Democratic Campaigns Are Reaching More Voters, Survey Finds | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.07.2014 | Politics

Democratic campaigns are reaching more voters with ads and volunteers. Outlier results pop up in Kentucky and Iowa. And Stan Greenberg (D) sees a 'tip...

The Public and Ebola: What the Polls Say

Paul Herrnson | Posted 10.07.2014 | Media
Paul Herrnson

Polls indicate that Americans consider emerging infectious diseases to be a significant public health priority. Although the public's concerns about AIDS, Ebola and other potential epidemics decreased slightly from 1998 to 2004, a majority of 55% still considered this threat critical, while an additional 34% considered it important.

Seriously Flawed Latino Polling in Georgia Leads to Wildly Incorrect Speculation

Latino Decisions | Posted 10.06.2014 | Politics
Latino Decisions

In order to understand Latino political preferences in Georgia, or anywhere in 2014, election polling must be accurate, culturally competent and unbiased.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Reviewing A Busy Weekend For Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.06.2014 | Politics

It was a busy weekend for polls, with new data showing a still close race for control of the Senate with a slight edge for the Republicans. Surveys sh...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Midterm Polls Finds GOP Edge, But It's 'Anybody's Game' | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.03.2014 | Politics

As Election Day nears, new surveys find a closely-fought political environment but an edge for the GOP. Two campaign pollsters talk turnout. And the p...

Rachel Lienesch

How Much Can We Trust The Polls? A Look At The Industry's Transparency Problem | Rachel Lienesch | Posted 10.03.2014 | Politics

The T-shirt said it all. "The weighting is the hardest part." The pun seen all around the 2014 conference of the American Association for Public O...

Will There Be a Backlash Against Torture?

Peter J. Woolley | Posted 10.03.2014 | Politics
Peter J. Woolley

The Senate intelligence committee hopes to release soon a redacted summary of its 6,300-page report on the CIA's interrogational torture program. As we wait, the committee is wrangling with the CIA over redactions that the CIA is demanding.