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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: What You Need To Know About That 'Nerd Fight' | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.19.2014 | Politics

We recap the Senate model debate that you have (or haven't) been following all week. Polls in Kansas give the independent an edge without Chad Taylor ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: It's Election Day! (In Scotland) | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.18.2014 | Politics

It's Election Day in Scotland. We have the latest on what the Scottish polls are predicting and the challenges they face. Republicans have a good day ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: A Quarter Of Gubernatorial Races Look Like Tossups | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.17.2014 | Politics

Our newly-released gubernatorial forecasts shows plenty of close races. A new poll shows the Republican leading in Iowa. And is it possible that polls...

Senate Races in 2014 Don't Represent the Nation

Harrison Hickman | Posted 09.19.2014 | Politics
Harrison Hickman

Poll consumers should not use nationwide polls to guess what is likely to happen in U.S. Senate races this year. Likewise, no matter what the outcome, these Senate races will not predict what will happen in the 2016 Presidential race.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Finds Pat Roberts Trailing Independent Candidate | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.16.2014 | Politics

Polling shows the potential for a major upset in Kansas. Both parties back action against ISIS -- but that's where the consensus ends. And decades of ...

Mark Blumenthal

Another Poll Shows Increasingly Close Race In New Hampshire | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.15.2014 | Politics

A flurry of new Senate polls released over the weekend suggest a closer race in New Hampshire, an emerging consensus that Hagan is leading in North Ca...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: GOP Leads Nationally, While Democrats Do Well In Senate Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.12.2014 | Politics

A national poll finds the Republicans ahead, while state-level Senate surveys have some good news for Democrats. This year's gubernatorial races look ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Terrorism Fears Rise, But Few Call It Most Important Issue | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.11.2014 | Politics

As polls find Americans find increasing concern in reaction to ISIS, very few mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the country. Demo...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: More Say America Is As Unsafe As It's Been Since 9/11 | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.10.2014 | Politics

Americans are more concerned about their safety from terrorism than they have been since 9/11. Another poll finds Republicans more enthusiastic about ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Americans Deeply Worried By ISIS | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.09.2014 | Politics

Concerns about terrorism are leading to increased support for airstrikes. A new Kansas poll finds incumbent Pat Roberts vulnerable. And the year's pri...

Natalie Jackson

How HuffPost Forecasts Senate Elections: The Technical Details | Natalie Jackson | Posted 09.11.2014 | Politics

The HuffPost Pollster Senate prediction model has three parts: averaging public polls, calculating probabilities race by race and calculating the over...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polls Show How Close The Midterms Remain | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.08.2014 | Politics

A new round of Senate polling shows a stable, slightly GOP-friendly midterm environment. We look at where the polls do, and don't agree, and how the n...

Mark Blumenthal

How The 'Orman Factor' Muddles The Senate Forecast, And How We've Dealt With That | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.06.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The recent upheaval in the Kansas Senate race has thrown a small wrench into political observers' efforts to forecast which party will t...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Do You Ask About A Senate Race Like Kansas? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.05.2014 | Politics

The upheaval in the Kansas Senate race creates one set of challenges for pollsters and another for forecasters. Americans are more optimistic about jo...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Kansas Senate Race Shakeup Could Leave Roberts Vulnerable | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.04.2014 | Politics

A major shakeup in Kansas throws a wrench into Senate predictions. A handful of new surveys all tell the same story about the Kentucky Senate race. An...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Gives The GOP A National Edge | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.03.2014 | Politics

A new national poll gives Republicans the upper hand. We explain our new Senate forecast. And if you're looking for a wealth of nonpartisan polls, you...

Mark Blumenthal

HuffPost's New Senate Forecast Predicts A Nail-Biter | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.02.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The race for control of the U.S. Senate remains very much in doubt, coming down to a coin flip based on current voter preferences as mea...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Survey Gives McConnell An Edge In Kentucky | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.02.2014 | Politics

A new poll gives Republicans the edge in Kentucky. Forecasters weigh in on election polling. And we're looking forward to debuting our new Senate dash...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Political Scientists Weigh In With Midterm Predictions | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics

Political scientists gathered in DC to argue over just how good the midterms will be for the GOP. We weigh in with our own revamped Senate model. And ...

Mark Blumenthal

HuffPost Pollster Refines Senate Poll Tracking Model Before 2014 Elections | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With just over nine weeks remaining before Election Day 2014, the contest for control of the U.S. Senate likely hinges on the outcome of...

Looking Back At America's Changing Opinions On Unions

Kathleen Weldon | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics
Kathleen Weldon

On May 14, 1882, unionized workers in New York City held a parade and picnic, and the seeds of the Labor Day holiday were planted. About 50 years late...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Recession Leaves Americans Pessimistic About Jobs | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.28.2014 | Politics

Americans are deeply pessimistic about the state of the economy. A Republican poll is deeply pessimistic about the GOP's outreach toward women. And op...

Breaking: GOP Has a Woman Problem! But Does It Matter?

Margie Omero | Posted 08.28.2014 | Politics
Margie Omero

Here's a tough question for the left: Can Republicans still be successful even as they continue to alienate a majority of the electorate? In midterms, the answer is undoubtedly yes.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Polls Show Close Races In Iowa, Wisconsin | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.27.2014 | Politics

Two new polls confirm highly competitive races for governor in Wisconsin and U.S. Senate in Iowa. Republicans say they are paying more attention to th...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Republicans Increasingly Optimistic About Midterm Chances | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.26.2014 | Politics

Republicans are increasingly optimistic about the midterms, but not as much as they were in 2010. The electoral landscape continues to look pretty muc...