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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Much Support Does Obama Have On Immigration?

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.21.2014 | Politics

Americans support the immigration policies President Obama is putting into place, but nearly half oppose the way he's doing it. Climate change is cons...

GOP's Response to Obama's Executive Action Could Define 2016 Election

Latino Decisions | Posted 11.20.2014 | Politics
Latino Decisions

At stake here is the fact that the president is promoting a policy that tries to keep children and parents together, and stops the detention and deportation of parents who have U.S. citizen children. Can the GOP honestly face Latino voters and say, "We want the federal government to continue deporting parents who have young children"?

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Few Expect Election To Bring Change

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.20.2014 | Politics

A new national poll finds little confidence that the election results will change things in Washington. Partisanship now drives ratings of U.S. health...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Both Parties' Polls Missed In 2014

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.19.2014 | Politics

Most polls understated Republican margins in 2014, including the internal polls of both Democrats and Republicans. "Orphan states" drove extra GOP win...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: GOP Groups Secretly Shared Polling Over Twitter

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.18.2014 | Politics

A trove of numbers posted to Twitter turn out to be secret polling data. Race plays a significant role in views of the police. And how good were the f...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Perspectives on Polling Error

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.17.2014 | Politics

Post election discussions and analysis turn to polling accuracy. We summarize several different perspectives. And Gallup takes the measure of the ACA ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Three Theories For Why Polls Underestimated The GOP

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.14.2014 | Politics

Poll and poll averages generally understated Republican margins at the end of campaign 2014. We examine three theories that may explain why. This is H...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Survey Finds Sinking Ratings For Democratic Party

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.13.2014 | Politics

Gallup's polling finds Democrats' party image sinking following their midterm loss. Another survey sees top Republicans regaining support among the GO...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Survey Finds Divides On Who Should Lead In Washington

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.12.2014 | Politics

Republicans won control of both houses of Congress, but Pew Research finds Americans are divided on who should lead. Democrats' problems with non-coll...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: What Last Week's Election Tells Us About Latino And Asian Voters

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.11.2014 | Politics

Pollsters take a look at the Latino and Asian electorates. An attempt at identifying persuadable voters seems to have gone awry. And the Roper Center ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFPOLLSTER: A Closer Look At Voter Turnout

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.11.2014 | Politics

Turnout emerges as a theme in explaining what went wrong for Democrats last week. We round up some initial looks at how it affected the most surprisin...

Dissecting Polls Data: Yet More 'Plus ça Change'

David Tereshchuk | Posted 11.07.2014 | Media
David Tereshchuk

One mass media ritual that's a reliably renewable resource is the post-election poring over pollsters' data.

When the Wall Came Tumbling Down: The American Public and Berlin

Paul Herrnson | Posted 11.17.2014 | Politics
Paul Herrnson

Though Ronald Reagan's call to "tear down this wall" has come to be iconic of his role in the last days of the Cold War, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was widely seen as the leader primarily responsible for the change.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: How President Obama Defined The Midterms

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.06.2014 | Politics

The exit polls and election results demonstrate the powerful influence of the President on campaign 2014. Turnout was down from 2010. And forecasters ...

The Top 10 Least Helpful Democratic Excuses

Harrison Hickman | Posted 11.07.2014 | Politics
Harrison Hickman

To learn from our landslide defeat, Democrats should avoid excuses that divert attention from the tasks required to prepare for the next round of elections. Here are 10 examples of what Democrats should avoid.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Republican Wins Outpace Predictions

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.05.2014 | Politics

Polls correctly forecast a Republican Senate majority, but missed their margins nationwide by a mile. And exit polls show Americans remain thoroughly ...

Latino Decisions' Election Eve Poll, Early Results

Latino Decisions | Posted 11.04.2014 | Politics
Latino Decisions

The main story is that "immigration reform/Dream Act" surpassed "jobs/economy" as the most important issue motivating 2014 midterm cycle likely Latino voters.

Mark Blumenthal

Early Exit Polls Won't Tell You Who's Winning

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.04.2014 | Politics

Anyone watching Tuesday's midterms should be ready to settle in for a long election night -- a plethora of close races, slow ballot-counting in states...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: What The Polls Tell Us On Election Day

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.04.2014 | Politics

It's Election Day. Americans are casting their ballots in the only poll that matters. And if you want to watch returns like a pollster, there's still ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Odds of GOP Senate Takeover Grow

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.03.2014 | Politics

Last-minute polling finds the Republicans on track for a Senate victory tomorrow. Early voting, though, suggests it could be close. And what kind of v...

Mark Blumenthal

U.S. House Polls Forecast Republican Gains

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.04.2014 | Politics

In 2014, the high-stakes battle for control of the U.S. Senate, rather than individual House races, has gotten most of the attention from pollsters an...

Who are the Undecideds?

Doug Rivers | Posted 11.03.2014 | Politics
Doug Rivers

There are many sources of uncertainty in election polling other than sampling error. One source of error that looms large in this year's closest races is undecided voters -- people who say they are going to vote, but don't know (or won't say) which candidate they prefer.

Early Voting Pulling Into the Station

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 11.03.2014 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

It's now possible to see how states are faring in their early vote compared to 2010. More than 17 million people have voted in the 2014 election. As the early vote pulls into the station, it is time to interpret the meaning of these numbers.

Hidden Errors and Overconfident Pollsters

David Rothschild | Posted 11.02.2014 | Politics
David Rothschild

Election forecasts report a margin of error of typically 3 percentage points. That means that 95 percent of the time the election outcome should lie within that interval. However, the true error is actually much larger than that.

Mark Blumenthal

Polling Forecast: The Senate Is Leaning Republican

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.03.2014 | Politics

On Tuesday, Americans will head to the polls to determine 36 seats in the U.S. Senate. Although those contests will likely draw as many as 49 million ...