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Pollster Analysis

HUFFPOLLSTER: Signs Of Trouble For Donald Trump In New Hampshire And Beyond

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.08.2016 | Politics

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz face considerable challenges. We face a mountain of new polling in New Hampshire. And Hillary Clinton spent more on polling...

Why It’s Ridiculous To Report On Every Poll Coming Out Of New Hampshire

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.07.2016 | Politics

Pollsters have been busy in New Hampshire the last few days. As of this post's publication, HuffPost Pollster’s charts have added 15 polls...

What The Polling Miss In Iowa Means For New Hampshire And Beyond

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 02.08.2016 | Politics

In the aftermath of Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) surprise Iowa win, pollsters have been trying to figure out why he and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) surged...

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Hampshire Primaries Could Bring More Surprises

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.05.2016 | Politics

Pollsters warn that the New Hampshire primaries could offer surprises. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are maintaining their comfortable leads in the...

Do Polls Still Work If People Don't Answer Their Phones?

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 02.05.2016 | Politics

Pollsters face a growing obstacle in gathering Americans’ opinions: getting people to answer their calls. The proportion of people called who a...

HUFFPOLLSTER: A 'Seismic Shift' Among Voters May Have Won Cruz The Caucus

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.03.2016 | Politics

Early analysis shows Iowa polls may have missed the Republican results because they were simply too early. New Hampshire seems stable, but that could...

Why The Polls Got The Democratic Caucus Right

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.02.2016 | Politics

While the Iowa caucuses provided a polling upset on the Republican side, most pollsters -- often in the same surveys -- fared much better wi...

Media Shares The Blame For Polling Overhype In Iowa

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.02.2016 | Politics

Pollsters are taking a lot of heat from the public and the media for not anticipating Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) victory in Monday night’s ...

HuffPollster: Iowa Caucus Results Show Polling Miss, But Don’t Stun Pollsters

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.02.2016 | Politics

Polls missed the Iowa GOP race, but came much closer for the Democratic race. And pollsters say they're not surprised they got it wrong. This is Huff...

Here's Why Polls Got The Republican Caucus Wrong

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 02.02.2016 | Politics

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) pulled off an upset win in Iowa over not only Donald Trump but also the polls, which almost universally showed him behind. Th...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Clinton And Trump Lead As Iowans Prepare To Caucus

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 02.01.2016 | Politics

It’s caucus day in Iowa! Here’s what to watch and what the polls show. We also take a look at where New Hampshire stands eight days befor...

Republican Activists Think Donald Trump Is Their Best Shot To Win

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 01.30.2016 | Politics

The most politically active members of the Republican Party have warmed to Donald Trump’s bid for the party’s presidential nomination sin...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Marco Rubio Could Be An Iowa Surprise… Or Not

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.29.2016 | Politics

The Iowa caucuses “almost always yield surprises,” according to a leading pollster. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton might face problems ...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Donald Trump Is Pulling Ahead In Iowa, But Needs Record Turnout To Win

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.28.2016 | Politics

Both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump need high turnout in order to win in Iowa. Americans don’t see much difference between candidates’ i...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Sanders Within Half A Percentage Point Of Clinton In Iowa

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.27.2016 | Politics

The HuffPost Pollster average shows a nearly tied race on the Democratic side in Iowa. A candidate's religiosity matters to GOP voters, but less so w...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Bernie Sanders' Chances In Iowa Depend On Convincing His Supporters To Vote

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.26.2016 | Politics

Polling shows that Bernie Sanders’ supporters are less likely to turnout for the Iowa caucus than Hillary Clinton’s. The Iowa and New Ham...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Trump And Clinton Lead, But Iowa Polling Remains Volatile With A Week To Go

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.25.2016 | Politics

Donald Trump has regained the lead in Iowa but things can still change. On the Democratic side, young voters could tip the caucus toward Bernie Sande...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Iowa Polls Show Both Caucuses Close To Tied

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.22.2016 | Politics

Both Democrats and Republicans are in tight races heading into the Iowa caucuses, but beware of outlier polls. Most Americans don’t see greatne...

Donald Trump's Lead Isn't As Solid As It Looks

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.20.2016 | Politics

Late last week, NBC News released a poll declaring, “Trump More Than Doubles National Lead.” Similar headlines across the ...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Bernie Sanders Has A 72 Percent Chance Of Winning New Hampshire…Or A 43 Percent Chance

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.15.2016 | Politics

Nate Silver’s primary election forecasts highlight just how uncertain the outcomes are this time. A boom of polling in Iowa and New Hampshire s...

Republicans Support Tougher Gun Background Checks, Unless It’s Obama Suggesting Them

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 01.14.2016 | Politics

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A Partisan Culture, Not a Gun Culture

Margie Omero | Posted 01.13.2016 | Politics
Margie Omero

Last week President Obama took modest, but politically courageous, executive actions on guns. Despite the well-established popularity of strengthening background checks, the move was panned by the Republican Speaker and most Republican Presidential candidates. But there is far more to the contentious debate on guns than simply a favor/oppose question on any one policy, and more than discussions of a "gun culture" that gun law advocates supposedly don't get.

HUFFPOLLSTER: Predicting Who Will Vote Is A Huge Challenge For Pollsters And Campaigns

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.08.2016 | Politics

A new Pew study tackles the difficult task of determining likely voters. Americans favor Obama's proposal for gun background checks, but don't like h...

How Pollsters Decide Who's A 'Likely Voter' Makes A Big Difference In Results

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.07.2016 | Politics

For all the challenges facing the election polling industry, one of the most basic remains figuring out whether people actually vote. Pollsters ...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Here’s What You Need To Know About The First Republican Primaries As 2016 Begins

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 01.04.2016 | Politics

WHY IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTH CAROLINA MATTER - Keith Gaddie and Kirby Goidel: “On February 1, 2016 the first presidential nominating deleg...