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Pollster Analysis

Why has Obama Taken the Lead in the Gallup Poll?

Alan Abramowitz | Posted 09.11.2012 | Politics
Alan Abramowitz

Based on what we know about the likely racial composition of registered voters in the U.S., the results from the most recent three-week period are probably a more accurate estimate of the current state of the 2012 presidential race than earlier results.

Mark Blumenthal

Obama-Romney Polls Find A Stubborn Margin | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.11.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Same as it ever was. That's the primary message from the latest batch of national polls on the race for president conducted in early Jul...

Holder Poll: No Real Opinions Formed Among Many

Robert M. Eisinger | Posted 09.10.2012 | Politics
Robert M. Eisinger

Polls are news, and are critically valuable for democracy. They often tell us about what we believe and why. But not all polls, even reputable polls with thoughtfully constructed questions, are newsworthy.

Health Care Issue Could Split Voters

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 07.10.2012 | Politics

Americans remain split on nearly every facet of health care reform, from whether they support president's signature law to which presidential candida...

Wooing Male Voters

Julia Clark | Posted 09.08.2012 | Politics
Julia Clark

The fact is that men are, statistically and politically, in the minority in this country -- so why does everyone seem to act like women are?

Are Young Americans Turning Against Obama, Part II

Alan Abramowitz | Posted 09.05.2012 | Politics
Alan Abramowitz

Post-millennials were significantly more supportive of President Obama than millennials. This is not surprising.

Beer Vs. Church 'Outliers'

Posted 07.06.2012 | Politics

Scott Clement argues that Friday's jobs report is unlikely to shift the dynamics of the election; Ed Kilgore reaches the same conclusion. Ron Brow...

Mark Blumenthal

Obamacare Polls Judge Effect Of Supreme Court Ruling | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.03.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Now that the Supreme Court has declared the health care law constitutional, will that ruling change public opinion about the law? Not v...

Are Young Americans Turning Against Obama?

Alan Abramowitz | Posted 09.02.2012 | Politics
Alan Abramowitz

Stories of dramatic shifts in voter behavior from one election to the next make for exciting news copy. But claims about large swings in voter attitudes should generally be treated skeptically, especially when they are based on very limited evidence.

Andrei Scheinkman

Announcing the HuffPost Pollster API | Andrei Scheinkman | Posted 07.05.2012 | Politics

As the presidential race heats up, Americans are increasingly turning to political polls to try to understand the current opinions of the electorate. ...

Public Opinion Will Swing Against Obamacare Repeal

Sheri and Allan Rivlin | Posted 07.02.2012 | Politics
Sheri and Allan Rivlin

Are Republicans really willing to kick millions of people under the age of 26 off of their parents health insurance coverage? Do Republicans really want to be the party that brought seniors the "doughnut hole" not once, but twice?

Alien Invasions 'Outliers'

Posted 06.29.2012 | Politics

Frank Newport reviews key implications for public opinion on Thursday's Supreme Court health care ruling. Dan Hopkins considers the role of self-in...

Tea Leaves in the Jungle: Why the DCCC's California Dreams Are Unlikely to Materialize

Scot Reader | Posted 08.28.2012 | Politics
Scot Reader

Application of the "Washington model" suggests that it will be difficult for the Democrats to reach their goal of three to six pickups in California's congressional delegation. The model predicts that the Democrats will win 32 seats and the Republicans will take 19, with two pure toss-ups.

Mark Blumenthal

Polls Have Good News For Obama In Three Battleground States | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.27.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Three new Quinnipiac University polls released on Wednesday show President Barack Obama leading presumptive Republican challenger Mitt R...

Mark Blumenthal

Obamacare Ruling: How Will The Public React? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.26.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Two new polls show that when the U.S. Supreme Court hands down its much-anticipated ruling on President Barack Obama's signature health ...

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.25.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.

Mark Blumenthal

Is Voter Engagement A Problem For Obama In 2012? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.23.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Political junkies have been scratching their heads again this week as another batch of national surveys produced results ranging from a ...

Reality TV, Fake Numbers 'Outliers'

Posted 06.22.2012 | Politics

Sean Trende says it's too early for Democrats to panic. Joel Benenson says "the only thing that's bouncing around are the polls." Matthew Dick...

Latest Polls Show a Close Race, But Where Is the Romney Effect?

David C. Wilson | Posted 08.21.2012 | Politics
David C. Wilson

If things are so horrible and bad with the economy why haven't Mitt Romney's numbers jumped through the sky and Barack Obama's numbers plummeted in the latest polls? I don't think that any smart reader of polls can tell you today who will win in November, but campaign research suggests that Romney will have a much tougher time than Obama moving forward because of VP pick scrutiny, national debate preparation, the changing of national and international issues will require him to be more specific in his positions, and the like. Obama has the advantage of incumbency and stronger favorability than Romney; Romney's main political advantage is that he's not currently in any elected office to see how he'd perform in this economy. So, if business background is a winning message, where's the Romney effect?

Mark Blumenthal

Too Good To Be True? Bloomberg Poll's Surprising Result | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.21.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A new Bloomberg News national poll shows President Barack Obama leading Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a surprisingly large margin...

It's (Not) the (State) Economy, Stupid!

Thomas M. Holbrook | Posted 08.19.2012 | Politics
Thomas M. Holbrook

I'm skeptical that state-to-state variations in economic conditions -- especially those based on unemployment -- have much to do with presidential election outcomes.

Super-sized Opposition?

Robert M. Eisinger | Posted 08.19.2012 | Politics
Robert M. Eisinger

Would one describe the policy as a ban or a limit? Would one include that the larger beverage would be available at certain locales but not others (i.e., a ban at certain locales)? Would you include 16-plus ounces in the question, or describe it simply as large?

Gallup Poll's Race Issues Should Be Singled Out

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.19.2012 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Over the weekend, The Huffington Post ran an in-depth analysis of the way the Gallup Poll handles race in its survey samples. (Go read it if you haven...

Mark Blumenthal

Why Gallup Poll Is Down On President Obama | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.18.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general p...

Mark Blumenthal

What's Up With The Michigan Polls? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.16.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- What's happening in Michigan? President Barack Obama appears to enjoy a narrow lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, but recent p...