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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Few Supporters For The IRS | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.16.2013 | Politics

Most Americans don’t like the IRS, most Virginians don’t know anything about their candidates for governor, and AAPOR kicks off in Boston. This is...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - British Columbia's Polling Fail | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.15.2013 | Politics

A low turnout election in British Columbia yields the sum of all pollster fears. In New Hampshire, which knows of such meltdowns, Hillary Clinton domi...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Will Second Term Scandals Be 'Game Changers'? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.14.2013 | Politics

Without fresh survey data, pundits turn to political science and prediction to evaluate the impact of the week's new scandals. On Benghazi, Obama gets...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Another Look At Kelly Ayotte's Approval Ratings | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.13.2013 | Politics

Kelly Ayotte's job rating gets another look. Politico discovers Gallup's review of its methodology. And PPP is asking about "hipsters" by talking to r...

Did The Youth Vote Actually Increase in 2012?

Kristen Soltis Anderson | Posted 07.10.2013 | Politics
Kristen Soltis Anderson

I'd argue it's also not nearly as important as what Republicans plan to do to win over more of those young people who do show up.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Could Pennsylvania Be A 2016 Swing State? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.13.2013 | Politics

It's a good time to ignore horse race numbers in Virginia, but a fine time to speculate about battleground states in 2016. Eliot visits Elliot, the mo...

2012 Election: A Failure to Mobilize the Youth Vote

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 07.10.2013 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

Among the most dramatic findings reported in the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey is a large decline in turnout rates among young people. Obama's smaller margin of victory in 2012 was thus partially a turnout story.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Census Turnout Data Shows Record Black Turnout | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.09.2013 | Politics

Political data geeks rejoiced over the release of the biennial Census report on voter turnout, a report which shows black turnout exceeding white turn...

2012 Turnout: Race, Ethnicity and the Youth Vote

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 07.08.2013 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

The big news from the Current Population Survey will be that African-American turnout exceeded non-Hispanic white turnout. But I contend that really that happened first in 2008. The more important political story may be the dramatic decline in youth turnout, as it poses a challenge to Democrats and an opportunity for Republicans.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - McAuliffe, Cuccinelli Running Close In Virginia | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.08.2013 | Politics

Pollsters missed the South Carolina special election outcome by a mile. So...on to Virginia! And Pew Research confirms that off-year turnout advantage...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - South Carolina's 1st District Votes Tonight | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.07.2013 | Politics

For South Carolina's election day, a lesson in comparative politics: In the U.S., politicos either obsess over the latest twitch in automated telephon...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - South Carolina Special Election Poll Shows Close Race | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.07.2013 | Politics

A final PPP poll in South Carolina's 1st congressional district shows a near tie, but both the poll and the race have produced more far more speculati...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Markey, Gomez Running Close | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.03.2013 | Politics

We close the week in Massachusetts, where a new PPP automated shows a close race and a student group at Emerson College is getting into automated poll...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - South Carolina 'Push Poll' Raises Questions | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.02.2013 | Politics

Today, HuffPollster takes a closer look at some surprising twists in allegations of 'push polling' in the South Carolina congressional race. PPP repor...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Immigration Bill? What Immigration Bill? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.02.2013 | Politics

Pew Research uses a simple question to reveal considerable public uncertainty about the immigration reform bill. Polls show public support for surveil...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Inattentiveness Tuesday | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.30.2013 | Politics

New national surveys put the inattentiveness of the American public in the spotlight. Two polls show that few are closely following the conflict in Sy...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Turnout: What's New? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.29.2013 | Politics

AP reports that black turnout was higher than white turnout in 2012...based on a lot of data, none of it new. PPP notes drops the job approval ratings...

Who Registers to Vote Online?

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 06.29.2013 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

Who uses online voter registration? Which party may benefit? Data provided by the Maryland State Board of Elections illuminates patterns of online voter registration use.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Experts Defend American Community Survey | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

Selling immigration reform hinges on communicating 'requirements' for citizenship. Obama's 'Big Data' could be a big deal for Hillary in 2016, and sur...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Dueling Polls, Massachusetts Edition | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

Dueling polls in Massachusetts, with a twist. It's a big day for data on social media, and social media data. And Frank Luntz gets snared by another D...

The Myth of a Gun "Intensity Gap"

Margie Omero | Posted 06.24.2013 | Politics
Margie Omero

In the wake of the failure of the Senate to pass even a modest background check bill, many around the country are still scratching their heads. How co...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Gun Vote Backlash -- Or Not | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

One poll finds little anger over the Senate gun vote while another shows a backlash against New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Both are probably right. ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Will SC-01 GOP Take A Hike? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

Americans are less negative about George Bush than they used to be. Nearly half followed the Boston Marathon bombings online or on smart phones. Polli...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Polling The Pollsters | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

Americans may be shocked by the Boston Marathon bombings and worried about future attacks, but their reaction pales to what they were feeling after 9/...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Terrible, Horrible No Good Week | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

The political world stayed mostly on pause today, as coverage continued of the tragedy in Boston. There was some polling news, but we agree with PPP t...