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Can I Trust This Poll? Part II

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

There's a clash between traditional and new polling methods. Here, I review the philosophies at work behind efforts to evaluate polls and offer a few suggestions about what we can do to assess whether poll samples are truly representative.

Happy Birthday to Us

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Pollster.com quietly turned three-years-old this week. We launched with this post and a less pretty set of charts on September 1, 2006. Since that tim...

A Guide to Our Charts and Data

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

While we are excited about the chart and data pages debuting today on Pollster.com, please keep in mind that the site remains under development. We ar...

Introducing Pollster.com

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Welcome! Pollster.com is the new home of Mystery Pollster, the blog that has labored to demystify the art and science of political polling for the la...

What's Up in NJ...And With Our Charts?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Two new polls on the New Jersey governor's race this week generated a lot of discussion. When I first saw them Tuesday morning, I thought they present...

Thank You, Time!

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Some very good news: Time has named Pollster.com to its list of the 50 Best Websites of 2009! What makes this honor especially huge is that Time's lis...

Not-Quite-Post-Vacation Housekeeping

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Now that I'm back from a week's vacation, Emily is taking two well earned days off today and tomorrow and I will be filling in adding new polls to our...

Welcome Emily - Farewell Eric

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Regular readers have probably noticed a new name appearing on the "poll update" entries on Pollster.com. Emily Swanson, a recent graduate of the Unive...

Sometimes the Magic Works...

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

"Sometimes the magic works," said Chief Daniel George in the 1970 classic flim Little Big Man, "and sometimes it doesn't." The same can be said abou...

About That New Banner

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Hopefully, you have already noticed something a little different about our site today. As of this morning, a *National Journal* banner now sits atop ...

Job Opening at Pollster.com

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

This is something of a bittersweet post. Eric Dienstfrey, my relentlessly hard working number two here at Pollster.com, will be moving on to bigger an...

A Surprise In Obama's Poll Numbers

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Rather than looking at the overall picture of how Obama's doing in the polls, I have been noticing something interesting which I don't believe others have picked up on.

More on the New Charts

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

As implied by the post earlier today on our New York charts, we are slowly working through the process of adding to our site all sorts of new poll cha...

New Charts!

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

If you have already glanced at our front page today, you know that we have introduced three new charts using the same Flash software that displayed pr...

Bowers Vs. 538 Vs. Pollster

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Chris Bowers posted a two-part series this week that compares the final estimate accuracy of his simple poll averaging ("simple mean of all non-campai...

My Blue Election Map

Ryan Kauffman | Posted 05.25.2011 | Home
Ryan Kauffman

The best information polls can provide are trends over long periods of time. Here is my take on every state's trend, my predictions, and insights into key senate races around the country.

A Thank You or Two...and Some Housekeeping

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

First, a very personal thank you. I was surprised and deeply gratified by the response to my post a week ago about the death of my father-in-law, both...

Why Are The Comments Disabled?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

So why aren't the comments working this afternoon? I temporarily disabled them. Why? Let me explain. We have always considered it important to maintai...

Comments Problem

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

For those who have tried to post comments this morning and received the following message: Comment Submission Error Your comment submission failed f...

Gallup's New Likely Voter Model

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Though I caught reference to it elsewhere, I managed to overlook the detailed description in today's Gallup Daily release of how they will report "lik...

Embed Our Electoral Vote Map

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I'll have more details in tomorrow morning's update, but the most obvious news tonight is that our electoral vote count as displayed at the top of our...

Pollster.com via iPhone

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Thanks to our partners at Slate.com, you now have an easy way to check the latest Pollster.com trend estimates using Apple's iPhone. Here are the ...

Washington Post Live Chat

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I totally neglected to link to this -- apologies for that: Charles Franklin and I are joining Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com for a live chat on W...

New Charts for Polls, Polls, Polls

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

A little over two years ago, we launched Pollster.com with a mission of providing a complete compilation of poll results, expert analysis and graphica...

The Media's Problem Of "False Balance" Showing Itself In Electoral Map Analyses

Mark Nickolas | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Nickolas

What is particularly noteworthy is where the media bias lies: it's a clear willingness to give John McCain (R) the benefit of the doubt, but not Barack Obama (D).