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Prediction Markets

HUFFPOLLSTER: Donald Trump Still Has A Substantial Chance Of Winning The GOP Nomination

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 04.18.2016 | Politics

Prediction markets show that Trump is the most likely Republican nominee, despite weeks of bad press. Most Republican voters would be OK with Ted Cruz...

Chances Of A Contested Convention Jump After Ted Cruz's Big Win In Wisconsin

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 04.06.2016 | Politics

Donald Trump was having a rough week even before he got clobbered by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Wisconsin's primary on Tuesday. Prediction markets -- whic...

There’s A High Chance Of A Contested Republican Convention

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 12.23.2016 | Politics

The biggest question of the political season is whether Donald Trump will get enough delegates to win the GOP presidential nomination before the conve...

HUFFPOLLSTER: Prediction Markets Give Democrats A 72 Percent Chance Of Keeping The White House

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 03.18.2016 | Politics

Political betting markets and polls both give Democrats a big advantage in November, but it’s still early to predict what will happen. Americans wit...

How One Trader's Love For Mitt Romney Went A Little Too Far

The Huffington Post | Mark Gongloff | Posted 09.25.2013 | Business

We knew Wall Street loved Mitt Romney, but this is ridiculous. One devoted trader apparently lost between $4 million and $7 million in just two wee...

Government Goes After Prediction Markets and Research

David Rothschild | Posted 01.30.2013 | Politics
David Rothschild

Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.

Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.26.2013 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

Prediction Markets: The Other Big Winners on Election Night

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.08.2013 | Business
Leighton Vaughan Williams

Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.

Matt Sledge

Obama Reelection Odds Jump After Presidential Debate, According To Online Predictors | Matt Sledge | Posted 10.23.2012 | Politics

NEW YORK -- The consensus after Monday night's third and final presidential debate is that Barack Obama was the winner. But the president's victory be...

Matt Sledge

Obama Reelection Odds Jump In Prediction Markets After Second Debate | Matt Sledge | Posted 10.17.2012 | Politics

NEW YORK -- After a confident debate performance on Tuesday night, President Barack Obama's chances of getting reelected got a measurable bump -- at l...

Joe Biden Debate Performance Gives Obama Minor Bump In Prediction Markets

The Huffington Post | Matt Sledge | Posted 10.12.2012 | Politics

Joe Biden's performance at the debate on Thursday night was warmly received by Democrats -- and now the betting markets are rewarding his running mate...

Wall Street Betting On An Obama Victory

The Huffington Post | Mark Gongloff | Posted 09.14.2012 | Business

Wall Streeters may not want President Obama to get reelected, but that is not going to stop them from trying to make money on his possible second term...

Trader FAIL: Healthcare Edition

The Huffington Post | Mark Gongloff | Posted 06.28.2012 | Business

Can we all agree now that there's not so much wisdom in markets, or crowds? The Supreme Court's decision to uphold President Barack Obama's health ...

Gamblers' Election-Forecasting Prowess and How They're Betting on the 2010 Races

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Keith Thomson

A professional horseplayer once told me that compared to handicapping horse races, elections were a cakewalk. "Polls can be inaccurate," he said. "Gamblers are accurate or they lose." There's considerable evidence he was on the money.

How Brokers Became Bookies: The Insidious Transformation of Markets Into Casinos

Ellen Brown | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business
Ellen Brown

Casinos for betting on what something will do in the future have been elevated to the status of "prediction" markets, and they can cover a broad range of issues

AAPOR2009: Christopher Wlezien

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Yesterday, I also interviewed to Temple University Professor Christopher Wlezien, who long-time Pollster readers may remember from the guest contribut...

Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Dow?

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business
Max Keiser

That's right, Americans are mad as hell and they aren't going to take it anymore.

HuffPost's Real Time Election Trading Odds

Huffington Post | HuffingtonPost's Electoral Prediction Map | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Trading Markets Swing to Obama! Bookmark this map! Updated hourly until election day....

Market Says McCain is Bonkers, Not Bold

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business
Max Keiser

Is McCain experiencing a mere wave of panic selling? Can he rebound from 44? Time will tell, but so far traders don't seem to be buying McCain on this dip.

October Surprise? How Are InTrade's Investors Positioning For an Osama Capture

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business
Max Keiser

Every time I turn on the news I see something going down at the Afghan-Pakistan border, so I'm thinking the October 2008 Surprise might just be a big one.

'Prediction Markets' Indicate Chance of Iran Attack Rising

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Max Keiser

Friday night in Paris, I was talking live to Tehran's Press TV about the betting-contract trading on; laying odds on if Bush, or someone else (Israel?) will Bomb Iran by December.