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Rasmussen

Omero: The Right Words for Your Numbers

Margie Omero | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Margie Omero

Wednesday, Politico told the story of a single poll number getting mistakenly pushed around through blogs and talking points. Republican talkers from Rep. Putnam to Matt Drudge to Freedom Watch...

Rasmussen's Unweighted Party ID

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports did something a little unusual: They published what their party identification results would have been for every release ...

On Trackers

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My Nationaljournal.com column, on the differences between rolling-average tracking polls and other "traditional" surveys, is now online. Regular reade...

Why So Much Variation? (Redux)

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

There has been quite a bit of speculation this week over that perennial we enjoy here at Pollster.com: Why are the polls so divergent? In the last wee...

The New-Latest Swing-State Polls: Ohio A Toss Up; Florida To Obama

Daniel Nichanian | Posted 05.25.2011 | Home
Daniel Nichanian

In a demonstration of how close the race still is in Ohio, despite Obama's momentum, the latest poll has Obama trailing McCain within the margin of error. Another new poll from FL has Obama winning.

Then and Now, Take Two

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

If you read about today's Washington Post/ABC News poll online, you probably missed the "Act II, Scene I" sidebar graphic from the Post's print editio...

On Polls and Astrophysics

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Last Friday's New York Times included an op-ed column by Neil deGrasse Tyson, an author and astrophysicist who used current polling state-by-state pol...

What's Up With The National Polls?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Last week, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman used his column in The Hill to argue that one could use "same-poll to same-poll comparisons" to argue that...

North Carolina: Trend Sensitivity

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Time for another update looking at the "sensitivity" of our trend lines for North Carolina. As Professor Franklin is tied up with his day job this mor...

A Rasmussen Poll That Wasn't

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Two week ago, we linked to a survey result for the Louisiana Senate race released by Rasmussen Reports. The survey purported to show Sen. Mary Landrie...

Pennsylvania Poll Errors

Charles Franklin | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Charles Franklin

Pennsylvania was a pretty good night for most pollsters, certainly compared to some earlier primaries this year. A few made it into the "five-ring" o...

Pollster Effects on Pennsylvania Trends

Charles Franklin | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Charles Franklin

There is a lot of interest in the differences among pollsters, and especially what effect they have on the perception of the race. Here at Pollster,...

Comparing Pollsters in Pennsylvania

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I know the question just about everyone following the Pennsylvania primary contest is asking today is what polls are showing regarding the impact of t...

Day-of-Week Effect in Gallup Daily?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I received some interesting charts this afternoon from Harrison Hickman and Ben Margolis, both of the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group that polle...

"Bradley" Still in the Race?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Mickey Kaus has been arguing over the last week that the greater emphasis on racial issues in the Clinton-Obama nomination contest may have caused a r...

Re: 46-45 Plus or Minus 3

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Update: In the comments, Chris G argues that I am "way off" to conclude that "there has been far more stability than change in the national Obama-Clin...

46-45 Plus or Minus 3

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

In case you missed our update, the most recent Gallup Daily result on the Democratic race shows a near dead-heat, with Barack Obama ahead of Hillary C...

MS: Demographics and Vote by Race

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

For those who will be watching results from the Mississippi primary tonight, here is a breakdown of the demographics of recent surveys as well as the ...

On "Defectors" and Independents

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Downstairs at The Hotline, my colleague Matt Gottlieb caught a finding in the general election presidential trial heats in the latest Newsweek poll th...

SurveyUSA's 50 States with Sampling Error

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

There has been a considerable buzz over the last two days about the surveys released yesterday by SurveyUSA that test both McCain-Obama and McCain-Cli...

Texas What-If

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Let's start with the bottom line: The final value of our trend estimate for Texas (at least as of this writing) shows Hillary Clinton running slightly...

The Demographics of Texas Polls

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Last fall, I asked all of the organizations that conducted Iowa Caucus surveys to disclose the demographic composition of their samples and several ot...

Dueling Gallups, Part III

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I am crashing on a deadline for my National Journal column, but want to pass along the analysis just posted by Gallup about the differences in their r...

Re: SurveyUSA Texas

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

A few comments on our post of the new SurveyUSA Texas poll raised two questions worthy of further discussion. First, reader s.b. notes: [W]ith an a...

TPM Catches a Milestone

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Talking Points Memo has a headline this morning pointing out something we were too busy to blog yesterday: For the first time, Barack Obama's number o...